Forum Fodder | Friday 15 June 2018
"Education is the kindling of a flame, not the filling of a vessel. - Socrates
All the best for another week's continuing education!
- Graham

UPCOMING LIVE CE...

Philosophy | Markets | Strategies | Investing | Finology
Strategies Conference 2018 - "Future-proof portfolios?"
Portfolio construction is an exercise in long-term thinking, seeking to meet the distant future financial needs of individuals. Strategies Conference 2018 will facilitate debate on a selection of contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, with particular emphasis on the challenges of building future-proof portfolios.
22-23 August 2018 | Register now!

Finology
Webinar: Which of your clients will cheat on their savings? Inside your clients' time and spending preferences
When to retire? How much to save? It’s where clients often show the greatest "say-do" gap. Professor Shachar Kariv will show how simple decision games can reveal insights about your client's true time preferences, their willpower and their likelihood to stick to spending and savings plans.
12pm-1pm AEST 3 July 2018 | Register now!

LATEST ONLINE CE...

Markets
Beware Quantitative Tightening!
Quantitative Tightening is jangling the nerves of investors around the world. It's unprecedented and no-one knows for sure exactly how it will play out. But all the evidence points to QT being a non-event.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | More

Markets
Can the Euro be saved?
The euro was supposed to bring shared prosperity, which would enhance solidarity and advance the goal of European integration. In fact, it has done just the opposite, slowing growth and sowing discord.
Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University | More

Finology
Research Review: Biases in recommendations
Two recent academic papers focus on how advice provided to investors might be distorted. The first relates to the disposition effect; the second looks at the impact compensation on advice given.
Ron Bird, UTS | 1.00 CE | More

Markets | Investing
Netflix will be the next dominant digital business
New means test rules for pooled lifetime income products, together with development of Comprehensive Income Products for Retirement (CIPRs), have the potential to radically alter Australians' views about retirement income products.
Nick Griffin, Munro Partners | More

Markets
Italy, tariffs are sideshows – the US is the main story
With US unemployment running at just 3.8% (equal lowest rate since 1969), the Fed will have to hike rates four times this year, with the risk that bond yields go not just to 3.5% but somewhere well north.
Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital | More

A Contrary View?
There is no price too large for the EU to pay to maintain the status quo, that is, their own survival... We need more populism, not less...
Garry Harradence | More

From asset allocation to risk allocation
Good topic to cover… thinking about gaps between the asset allocation process and security selection process. Surprised there isn’t more analysis or discussion along these lines...
Peter Eichmann, Park Street Group | More

Thanks, Peter
...I'm a little surprised myself although there are numerous quant and large asset managers who do produce a fair amount of analysis and publication along the lines of both dimensions.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | More

RECENT ONLINE CE...

Markets
The old allure of new money
There are now nearly 2,000 cryptocurrencies, and millions of people worldwide are excited by them. As with past monetary innovations, a compelling story may not be enough.
Robert J. Shiller, Yale University | More

Strategies | Investing
Will longevity products now become attractive?
New means test rules for pooled lifetime income products, together with development of Comprehensive Income Products for Retirement (CIPRs), have the potential to radically alter Australians' views about retirement income products.
David Knox, Mercer | More

Finology
Successful practitioners are caring practitioners
"Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care,” cautioned Theodore Roosevelt. This is especially true when risk is involved.
Herman Brodie, Prospecta Limited | 0.25 CE | More

Markets | Strategies
Cash is the alternative asset class
Many asset classes - such as real estate and infrastructure - face the same valuation headwinds as equities and bonds. Practitioners should consider using cash as the diversifier for multi-asset portfolios.
Sonja Laud, Fidelity International | More

Markets | Strategies
Markets creak as yields creep higher
Calm returned to global stock markets in May. But investors should not be lulled into a false sense of security. Equities and bonds face considerable headwinds as the Fed continues to tighten. This is not the time to be invested in overpriced assets.
Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital | More

Markets
Donald Trump’s Normal Fed
In a presidency that's shown little regard for conventional institutional norms, how can one explain Donald Trump's completely reasonable appointments to the Federal Reserve Board?
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | More

Strategies | Investing
Research Review: More on momentum investing
Eugene Fama described momentum investing as the one remaining market anomaly. A recent paper gives an explanation for it. Another shows it still offers high profits after costs.
Ron Bird, UTS | 1.00 CE | More

Markets | Investing
Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?
It is generally accepted that stocks provide long-term outperformance over cash. However, a recent academic research paper reveals this is not the case for the majority of stocks since 1926.
Nick Griffin, Munro Partners | 1.00 CE | More

Strategies | Finology
The difference for advice in retirement
Many baby boomers are now retiring with decent super balances and need advice on how to manage (spend) their retirement savings appropriately.
Aaron Minney, Challenger | More

Finology
Robo-advisors are NOT the future (but technology is)
Robo-advisors have been the big buzz as replacement humans, but they’re not (and data proves it). Technology alone is not enough (or everyone with a FitBit on their wrist would be healthy).
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 0.50 CE | More

Markets
The true impact of a trade war
President Trump's protectionist threats have raised the risks of a serious trade war, the first in over 80 years. It is assumed that this would materially impact US growth - but is that the case?
Woody Brock, SED | More

Markets
Is realism trumping populism?
Around the world, populist economic policy appears to be in retreat. Even in Britain, a clear majority support a vote on whether the deal with Europe is genuinely better than remaining in the EU.
Anatole Kaletsky, Gavekal  | 1 comment | More

Markets
Bill Phillips: the man, the myth, the Curve
In recent years, a consensus view emerged that the Phillips Curve is dead. Not so. To understand, you need to know the history of the model and the Kiwi behind it.
Economics Team, Payden & Rygel | More

Strategies | Investing
From asset allocation to risk allocation
Asset allocation is often regarded as the most important portfolio decision, with asset classes then populated by investments. But this two-step approach can result in a mismatch.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 2 comments | More

Strategies
The place of bonds in a low yield world
Investors are questioning the continued relevance of bonds in their portfolios. But bonds offer enhanced diversification in times of low growth, low inflation and market uncertainty.
Dean Stewart, Macquarie Investment Management | 0.75 CE | More

It's about what we DON'T know.
I only disagree to the extent that I know that we can't make assumptions about much at all AND that it's our clients' assumptions and views that matter...
Philip Carman, Personal Asset Service | More

We don't know the future
I agree that we don't know the future; indeed there are many uncertainties. The major point of this paper was to highlight the importance of investment returns after retirement, notwithstanding these uncertainties...
David Knox, Mercer | More

Thanks Ron (& Andrew)
... which brings us to assessing "skill"; and the many challenges and behavioural biases in so many of us thinking we have it, or can identify it.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | More

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