The term “BRICS” was coined in 2001 and, since then, BRICs nations’ share of Global GDP (PPP) has surpassed that of G7 nations. Today, certain developing economies (Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Brazil) are set to continue the trend of economic catch-up. These economies are still on low levels of income per capita, and growth is driven by sound economic policies, strong balance sheets and a reconfiguration of the global supply chain. A declining US dollar and interest rates has also been a boon to EM equities. Equity valuations are at attractive levels for most emerging markets but the lack of interest in emerging markets in general has led to extraordinarily attractive valuations even though the top companies are growing persistently. History may not repeat, but often rhymes. Historically, such extreme valuations have led to outperformance over the longer term - for example, coal a few years ago, US equities during the GFC, and banks when the consensus believed that interest rate was staying at zero forever!

Joseph Lai

When markets are exuberant, it is difficult to see - let alone act - against the hubris. When markets are down in the dumps, it is difficult to see past the misery. A reductive macro-economic framework may help.

Joseph Lai | 0.50 CE