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For a portfolio’s position to add up robustly, it must reflect future risks and respond to how these change through time.

Susan Gosling | 0.50 CE

This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, proposes an asset allocation approach that makes more complete use of information available about the future, forcing consideration of different time frames, alternate outcomes, and tail risk...

Today, there are no clearly diversifying mainstream assets. All assets are expensive and what seems safe may hold the greatest risk. We need to set realistic expectations and invest only of the basis of genuine insight.

Ultra-low interest rates and QE have offset the deflationary forces of debt deleveraging. The challenge policy makers face is when to withdraw the stimulus to avert inflation.

Will QE ruin retirement? Looking back at the risks inflation has presented in the past helps us look forward to the potential consequences.