China's cyclical recovery not firing on all cylinders

Harry Colvin | Longview Economics | 19 March 2013

China's economy is in the midst of a structural transition - following rapid growth in recent decades of around 10% real per annum, a period of much slower trend growth is now likely (that is, average real GDP growth of around 5% per annum over the coming decade).

Despite that longer term backdrop, signs of a cyclical re-acceleration are emerging and support the case for a six to 18 month upswing in the economy.

Critically, though, the qual...