Whether the dollar retains its global role will hinge on whether the US brings its soaring debts under control, avoids another unproductive debt-ceiling showdown, and gets its economic and political act together more generally.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Owning or not owning 4% of the global equity market is not going to make or break any portfolio. As for being too big to ignore? It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.
The September 2023 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
The September 2023 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...
The distinction between free trade and protectionism not only misrepresents recent history, it also misconstrues today's policy transitions and the conditions needed for a healthy global economy.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
August 1982 was a banner month. It saw the dawn of a new regime for investors – and for record labels – that was to run for 40 years. But in 2022, cash rates finally ended their 40-year decline. And the world turned for investors.
Now that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will accept new members, can the grouping pose a genuine challenge to the prevailing global-governance institutions?
In the same way that Moneyball has swept every professional sport, data science is bringing greater transparency to portfolio managers' decision-making skill. To select managers capable of outperforming, behavioural analysis is crucial.
Opinions about private markets are often not rooted in facts, due in part to the fact that data on private markets has been scarce. But data is available and it debunks some of the common misconceptions about private markets.
Since central banks abandoned their ultra-loose monetary policies, currencies once again offer a source of investment returns, as well as portfolio diversification.
For the first two decades of their life, hedged funds produced outstanding returns on average. For the past 20 years, it's not been so good. In this Spotlight, we review the reasons why, and whether there are any hedge funds worthy of inclusion in portfolios.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Advice Engagement is a framework that helps advisers focus on understanding their clients' needs and improving their outcomes, by improving the likelihood that the client will accept and follow the advice.
While the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves is in long-term decline, the currency's dominance will continue despite the rising risk of embedded inflation.
While a severe hurricane for the global economy looks less likely than it did a few months ago, we are still likely to encounter a tropical storm that could cause significant economic and financial damage.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The authors of this paper propose that it's not just confirmation bias, but the way it interacts with a specific set of fundamental beliefs that generates a surprisingly wide array of bias effects.
Until the early 1950s, investing was an art. Then, along came the publication of work undertaken by Harry Markowitz (1952). Over a 20-year period, this played the primary role in moving investing from an art to a science.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The bulk of the research on sustainable investing has concentrated on returns. These two papers look beyond that to whether investors are so committed to sustainability that they will continue to invest irrespective of returns or fees.
Highlight our upcoming live CE programs, and all of the complimentary on-demand CE-accredited resources published over recent months.
In recent decades, the world's wealth soared as low interest rates drove up asset prices. But the global balance sheet is rife with fragilities. How the world borrows, lends, and creates wealth may change fundamentally.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Gold has fascinated investors and analysts for decades. But it is a poor hedge against inflation over meaningful time horizons, and it is close to its highest real price in 800 years.
Industry funds don't use up to date valuations on their unlisted assets, and this is effectively cheating on their performance reporting? That's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.
Over the past 15 years, as behavioural sciences gained widespread recognition, economics has progressively acknowledged the significance of the biases that drive individuals and firms to behave irrationally.
The June 2023 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The arguments for and against active and passive management are much more nuanced than is often suggested by proponents on either side. In this Spotlight, we review the hard facts as represented by the S&P Index Versus Active (SPIVA) data, which farrelly’s views as the definitive database on active management.
The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The most recent evolution in index investing has been a drift into the active world. Until recently, active passive investing has not been subject to much analysis. The two papers considered here begin to make some inroads.
We should never let rules of thumb override financial fundamentals, but there are times when fundamentals become quite hazy. Recent inflation data suggests that we are in such a period right now.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Throughout history, technological change has created both winners and losers. There is no reason why AI, like previous technologies, shouldn't produce more of the former than the latter.
Only buy High Yield Debt when it is super cheap? It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Fragmentation and decoupling are becoming the new normal - US and China remain on a collision course, and a dangerous deepening of the ongoing "geopolitical depression" is all but inevitable.
Decision attribution analysis provides a crucial lens on equity manager skill, benefiting asset owners and fund buyers as they select and monitor managers.
We can help retirees build and retain their sense of control by keeping on building trust and educating them, modelling possible outcomes and showing a planned approach – including providing a Plan B.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
In a wide-ranging speech last week, Janel Yellen reversed the terms of US engagement with China, prioritising national-security concerns over economic considerations.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Until the BRICS countries can find a credible alternative for their own savings, the greenback's dominance will not really be in doubt.
The basic principle of duration risk seems to have been lost on many bankers, fixed-income investors, and bank regulators. After being a non-factor for the last 15 years, the interest-rate sensitivity of deposits has returned to the fore.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
This Research Roundtable focused on the Ruffer Total Return International (Australia) strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Speculation that the world is deglobalising misses the mark - global integration is evolving, not retreating, in the digital era. Our world has changed.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
India is poised to become the world's most important country in the medium term. Yet the model that has driven India's growth now threatens to constrain it.
The March 2023 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
The March 2023 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
America, China, and Russia are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.
Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year, focusing on the key drivers and outlook for the markets. As usual, 2023 Faculty were each challenged to offer their best high conviction proposition in the context of the program theme - this year, "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!" Their high-conviction faculty propositions can be distilled into three key discussion threads, supporting the case that, for portfolios, every VUCA cloud has a silver lining! Watch the highlights video, read the key takeouts - and then delve into the high conviction presentations that most interest you.
There was plenty of food for thought and grist for the investment portfolio mill, coming out of the recent Markets Summit 2023 "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!".
The concept of "transitory inflation" is making a comeback. Looking ahead to the rest of the year and early 2024, three inflation scenarios stand out for me.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Many who attended this year's World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile this optimism economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
This lecture argues that a diversified portfolio of core fixed income securities is an essential component of an optimal multi-asset portfolio. What's your philosophy?
This lecture explores the concept of ethics, contemporary issues in financial services as they relate to ethics, and the relevancy and application of ethics in our everyday lives.
Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?
This Spotlight finds that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors' portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk. Read the full report.
This Spotlight highlights that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors' portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk. Read the abridged report.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Uncertainty and change are unavoidable realities of life. In the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty, I offer you this year's global developments to watch over the next five years.