The concept of diversification may seem to be second nature. However, some of its fundamentals are often misused and sometimes misrepresented.
Neither policymakers nor markets should bet on the past decade's slow growth carrying over to the next. The best bet is that AI and other technologies will have a much larger impact on growth than up to now.
It is high time to end the hype. Bitcoin is a slow, energy-inefficient dinosaur. Most of the coins are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble – like most bubbles – burst.
The peddlers of the Bond-cano narrative give very different recommendations. Even if we buy the story, it's just not clear what to do - all of which suggests that it is just a wonderful narrative.
The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
In my opinion, the asset-price volatility we have been seeing has little or nothing to do with changes in fundamentals. And the widespread use of machine-driven trading is likely making all of this worse.
It should come as no surprise that enthusiasm for economic and financial globalisation has faltered. Building consensus around a revised unifying paradigm will not be easy.
In nine pages, this paper says all that needs to be said on the ability of any of us to estimate the true value of financial assets. The next two papers produce conflicting findings on the impact of index investing on markets.
Was the recent market volatility predictable? Was the volatility exogenous or endogenous in nature? What lies ahead as regards inflation and interest rates?
Let's be absolutely clear - the recent plunge in equity markets has almost nothing to do with inflation or a changing of the guard at the Fed.
Trust – the belief that those to whom we are vulnerable are both willing and able to act in our interests – is the no.1 factor in the decision to select and retain an asset manager.
We are moving ever closer to the date when payment for today's recovery will fall due. Recent capital market gyrations suggest that awareness of the inevitable reckoning is already beginning to dawn.
There are themes and stocks that last for decades. Whether the investment horizon is three to five years, 10 years or even 30 years, it is likely investors will benefit from thinking about the universe of themes and stocks for generations to come.
Despite the view that computers will come to dominate certain areas within financial planning, the reality is that there are still ways that computer-human duos can be more effective than computers or humans alone.
Finology knowledge and skills will substantially enhances practitioners' ability to communicate with clients, and to manage portfolios more effectively. This Backgrounder seeks to foster greater understanding and interest in the field of Finology.
While economics studies how humans allocate scarce resources, and psychology studies the human mind and behavior, there is a gap at the intersection between the two – an emerging new body of knowledge dubbed, "Finology".
The general uptrend in the broader equity market seems set to continue given economic data globally remains robust and central banks very accommodating. Given divergent risks, investors should focus more than ever on uncovering sources of idiosyncratic alpha, rather than relying on momentum or passive beta.
It is generally accepted that stock markets provide long-term outperformance over cash. However, a recent academic research paper reveals that less than 5% of listed US companies accounted for the entire wealth creation of the US stock market since 1926.
Every generation or so, things (in the economics world) break. We're probably at or close to one of those once-in-a-generation moments. Watching monetary indicators is key.
Investors are increasingly questioning the continued relevance of bonds in their portfolios. But bonds offer enhanced diversification qualities during times of low growth, low inflation and market uncertainty.
There are five areas where the early effects of technological change on the world economy are believed to be investible today.
Headlines seeming to portend political instability and chaos have not prevented stock markets from soaring. What gives?
The holy grail is to find active managers who can add value. The combined insights of these two papers suggest avoiding large managed funds, especially those under the control of managers who run a concurrent SMA.
It is the time of the year when those in the forecasting business like to lay out our expectations for the coming year. Here are mine...
Income layering is a goals-based approach to building an investment portfolio that is likely to be beneficial to a wide range of retirees - especially those worried about how to sustain spending in the later stages of retirement.