In the space of little more than two months, Trump has turned the world inside out. The Trump shock is the functional equivalent of a full-blown crisis. Concerns over the global economic forecast seem almost trivial.

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This narrative has been doing the rounds for a while and - in terms of unlisted property at least - has been fairly close to the mark. However, going forward, it has become a really unhelpful idea.

If there is one thing those in the finance industry should understand, it is how markets function. The starting point is the Efficient Market Hypothesis - however EMH is amazingly poorly understood.

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

If MAGA ultimately helps everyone break their dependency on the US consumer, the rest of the world will have much to thank Trump for. The only losers will be ordinary Americans.

We should observe markets as they truly are, rather than filtering them through traditional models and assumptions. This introduction to the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, explores what it means to "think differently" by challenging conventional economic theories and developing a new perspective on market behaviour.

Enlightenment thinkers played crucial roles in shaping early economic thought, focusing on specialisation and market functions. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture traces the evolution of economic and financial theories to provide historical context to modern thinking about the markets.

Traditional thinking about markets can be limiting - understanding the broader context, rather than relying solely on predefined structures, is crucial for effective decision-making. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture looks at the concept of "markets" both theoretically and practically.

Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture explores the themes of money, debt, and financial crises, reviewing both orthodox and heterodox perspectives and how economic thinking has evolved over time.

Understanding monetary policy, credit cycles, and financial stability is crucial for navigating financial markets effectively. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture emphasises the importance of understanding market behaviour, how central banks make interest rate decisions, and the signs that indicate shifts in asset performance and potential investment opportunities.

Markets remain fundamentally games of prediction and reaction, despite technological and financial advancements that have seen financial markets expand, introducing a vast array of investment instruments. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture explores portfolio construction in a financial landscape defined by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA).

The financial landscape of the next decades will differ significantly from the past 30 years. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture brings together key themes from the previous five lectures then shifts focus towards the future of investing.

After withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement and the WHO, President Trump may pull the country out the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But a withdrawal would primarily harm the US.

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While America's AI industry arguably needed shaking up, the news of a Chinese startup beating Big Tech at its own game raises some difficult questions.

Near- and medium-term gaps in current market narratives and perceptions lead to a simple conclusion. It is time for caution. As an "unconstrained" investor with no one to answer to but myself, my experience suggests three courses of action.

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Trump 2.0 is starting where Trump 1.0 ended – with distortions, convoluted logic, and the related risk of major policy blunders.

The economic damage Trump could cause will be moderate, according to Woody Brock. His bigger concern is what could go wrong with foreign policy under Trump because, in Woody's view, the probability of a global war is higher than it has been in decades.

While investors considering supply chain themes face another complex year in 2025, but it would be a mistake to assume there are only risks. There are plenty of opportunities to build sustainable, competitive advantage.

As the ideas and tools popularised under the banner of "nudge theory" have gained traction in the public and private sectors so, too, have ethical concerns regarding their use. Critics have long questioned the ethics of nudging.

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

Irrational markets are easy to beat? You would think so. But, to quote Yogi Berra, "In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they're different."

2024 was a year of confusing, inspiring, depressing, and energising developments on many fronts. It’s in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year’s set of global developments to watch over the next five years.

What impact will the next US administration have on economic growth and inflation? The answer is not yet clear, because while some of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies would boost growth and reduce inflation over time, others will have the opposite effect.