Policymakers are coming to realise that it is neither wise nor feasible to rely constantly on central banks for economic-policy support. The case for shifting the burden from monetary to fiscal policy is becoming more apparent.

Jim O'Neill

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Trump's administration is flailing at antiquated perceptions of the Old China that only compound the problems it claims to be addressing. Financial markets are starting to get a sense that something is awry.

Stephen Roach

With bond prices going parabolic in the past few weeks, once again market participants are wondering whether the bond market is in a bubble.

Chris Watling

Financial regulators have been reluctant to dish out jail terms. A new research paper finds that prison terms can be a cost-effective governance mechanism. A second paper gauges the impact of self-control on investment behaviour.

Ron Bird | 2 comments | 1.00 CE

This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on alternative asset classes and sub-asset class strategies, portfolio design, performance characteristics, and valuation methods.

Sam Mann & Sam Edwards

This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on approaches to asset allocation (SAA, TAA, DAA), the role of strategic asset allocation and method for setting the SAA, optimisaton, pre-tax return estimates, estimating risk and correlation, and forecast estimation errors.

Tim Farrelly

Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?

Philipp Hofflin | 5.00 CE

There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. None of them are amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

Nouriel Roubini

Great eyesight depends on more than just clarity of vision - peripheral awareness, eye co-ordination, depth perception, focus and colour sensitivity all play a crucial role, without which our vision is impaired. Strategies Conference 2019 looks ahead at the issues that will dominate the 2020s and beyond to provide greater clarity in building quality portfolios.

Graham Rich | 1 comment

Many economists argue that resolving US-China trade tensions is the best way to avoid significant global economic and financial disruption. Yet, while necessary, this would be far from sufficient.

Mohamed El-Erian

A disciplined, scenarios-based approach to determining your views on the outlook for markets is vital for building 20/20 portfolios. Determining investment strategy by analysing issues from a number of viewpoints allows you to arrive at plausible scenarios for how the future may unfold.

Robert Gay | 1 comment

As life expectancies improved, the "Financial Independence, Retire Early" movement was born. But a very long time in "retirement" requires more flexible spending rules.

Michael Kitces | 1 comment

Crypto land has become an unregulated casino where unchecked criminality runs riot. It is high time that law-enforcement agencies stepped in.

Nouriel Roubini

In late May 2019, Australian 10-year bonds were at 1.64% per annum. A month on and they’d dipped under 1.3% per annum. This is quite a move.

Tim Farrelly

Two recent research papers explore the impact of investors' increasing appetite for environmentally responsible investments.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

There is nothing unusual in a US President having a penchant for spin. But it won't be nearly as easy to spin the consequences of the flaws with Trump's economic policy.

Stephen Roach

Portfolio construction is multi-faceted and should be iterative. Five key components provide a framework to design quality portfolios to meet clients' objectives.

Annika Bradley | 1 comment

Facebook’s crypto-currency aims to function as private money anywhere on the planet. Given the massive risks, governments must step in and stop it before it launches.

Katharina Pistor | 1 comment

While much of the discussion around climate change and transition risks is focused on negative impacts, these changes will offer significant opportunities for some businesses.

Colonial First State Global Asset Management

Research finds that SRI funds perform as well as conventional funds, ESG equity investing has outperformed in the US, and controversial stocks do best in crises.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

The critics of QE are right to warn of unintended consequences. But shunning QE may also have unintended consequences. The critics should be careful what they wish for.

Barry Eichengreen

Retirement bucket strategies tie specific expenses to specific portfolios. But looking at categories of spending doesn't necessarily work. A better approach is to segment spending within each category.

Michael Kitces

Investment grade debt has become much riskier, default rates will rise when interest rates begin the inevitable normalisation, and credit spreads are too low – it’s a bubble waiting to burst. Actually, no.

Tim Farrelly | 3 comments

If you believe the UK is turning into populist Zimbabwe or Venezuela, you should expect a no-deal Brexit. Otherwise, forget about it.

Anatole Kaletsky | 1 comment

The Federal Reserve is contemplating changing its framework for targeting inflation. It should conclude that the FOMC needs more patience with the current neutral stance rather than a new target.

Robert Gay

The inflation outlook is subject to far wider possibilities than policymakers have considered. Too little focus on structural factors could pose serious risks to economic wellbeing and financial stability.

Mohamed El-Erian

A carbon tax - while immensely popular among economists - imposes the same cost on the rich and poor. A carbon dividend would be a smart step that wouldn’t invite a yellow vest reaction.

Mark Paul and Anthony Underwood | 1 comment

Five misplaced concerns about the future of the dollar make forecasts of a long-run collapse in the dollar problematic.

Woody Brock | 0.50 CE

Climate change has moved faster than most thought possible. There will be exciting investment opportunities in companies focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Jeremy Grantham | 1.00 CE

A recent paper looks at the impact of passive investing on market stability; a second describes shades of alpha for active and index investing. A third reviews luck and portfolio rebalancing outcomes.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

The long boom in Australian residential property prices seems to have finally ended. Further falls to come will cause the Australian economy to slow but will not cause a recession.

Tim Farrelly | 2 comments | 0.25 CE

If a final US-China trade deal prevents China from gaining greater monetary-policy autonomy, it could create major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.

Kenneth Rogoff

With Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a record in June, the question is whether this is a resumption of the bull market or only a temporary bounce.

Anatole Kaletsky

These are my key takeouts from Markets Summit 2019's Faculty of investment thinkers from around the world offering their high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets.

Robert Huebscher

China is frequently presented as a source of crisis or instability for the global economy. However, the picture is one of imperfection, not peril.

Julian McCormack

Yes, the days of 10% Chinese growth are over. That was inevitable. But there are five key reasons to dismiss the now-widespread diagnosis that China is ensnared in the middle-income trap.

Stephen Roach

Most of us use funds in clients' portfolios. Three new research papers look at what differentiates fund managers, highlighting factors we probably never considered important.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

Compared to physical risks, investors have a much greater ability to incorporate carbon and related pollution regulations into investment decisions.

Colonial First State Global Asset Management

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. The new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.

Nouriel Roubini

My key takeout was that perhaps markets entered an inflection point through 2018 and, accordingly (if they haven't already), investors need to think about how they position portfolios.

Stephen Miller

The idea that imputation refunds are an unfair, expensive rort is gaining acceptance in the community. The Labor proposal is not fair, nor much of a revenue earner. It's not even nuts. It is just wrong.

Tim Farrelly | 19 comments

The arguments of supporters of Modern Monetary Theory have a grain of truth, but also rest on some fundamental misconceptions and have unpredictable, potentially serious consequences.

Kenneth Rogoff

Climate change is affecting countries, companies, assets and communities in a variety of ways. Good stewardship of client assets requires investors to consider these issues.

Colonial First State Global Asset Management

There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent - albeit mediocre - year for the global economy. But a global growth-stall and sharp market downturn could come in 2020.

Nouriel Roubini | 1 comment

Two recent papers provide timely insights on the market impact of behaviour that is detrimental to corporate reputation, and the impact of ever-growing passive investing on behaviour within organisations.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

The former head of the Australian Stock Exchange recommends that dividend imputation should be abolished?

Tim Farrelly | 2 comments

For most of the past decade, the growing spending power of China’s expanding middle class has fueled the global economy. Not so anymore.

Jim O'Neill

Australian investors have a different perspective on foreign currency to investors elsewhere in the world, and this should be reflected in how local portfolios are built.

State Street Global Advisors | 1.00 CE

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.

Kenneth Rogoff

Cyclical volatility in earnings has increased dramatically since the 1980s. The recent Apple profit warning is an excellent case in point.

Robert Gay