Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | 17 Jan 2025

“[The US political vibe shift is] culminating in a global repudiation of the liberal international order that inspired two generations of Democrats… The world is going to look a lot more like Gotham City.” - Sir Niall Ferguson (04 Jan 2025)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Stand for More!  Enrol for the 2025 CIMA program  Certified Investment Management Analyst^® (CIMA^®) certification is the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for anyone involved in constructing multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios. Stand For More^TM - more knowledge, skill and expertise - with CIMA certification!  Enrol today!

Markets

Markets Summit 2025 “Mind the gap(s)”
AEDT Wednesday 19 February 2025
After decades of policymaker intervention in financial markets, the gaps between investor sentiment, asset prices and economic fundamentals are increasingly prevalent. This challenges our ability to pinpoint fair value, protect investment portfolios from downside risks, and capture alpha opportunities. And a second Trump presidency promises to further upend the world geopolitical, economic and trade order as he attempts to “reinvent” the US government, judicial and political apparatus.
Against this heightened VUCA macro backdrop, it is crucial we identify and understand the gaps in markets, to reduce the unavoidable dissonance between our perceptions and market realities, and better understand what lies ahead for economies and investment markets so we can reorient portfolios accordingly. Mind the gap(s)!
Markets Summit 2025 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets and help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Join us in the live studio, a live site, or via live stream | 7+ CE | Register now!

Markets

The good, the bad, and the uncertainty of the Trump economy
What impact will the next US administration have on economic growth and inflation? It is not yet clear, because while some of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies would boost growth and reduce inflation over time, others will have the opposite effect.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets

25 global developments to watch over the next five years
2024 was a year of confusing, inspiring, depressing, and energising developments on many fronts. It’s in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year’s set of global developments to watch over the next five years.
Vikram Mansharaman | Read

Markets

Crockpot: Irrational markets are easy to beat
Irrational markets are easy to beat? You would think so. But, to quote Yogi Berra, “In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they’re different.”
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Markets

Same same but different – 2024’s supply chain lessons for 2025
While investors considering supply chain themes face another complex year in 2025, but it would be a mistake to assume there are only risks. There are plenty of opportunities to build sustainable, competitive advantage.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global | 0.50 CE | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Asset Allocation Roundtable 2024/25
Picking up on the inputs from the Asset Class Outlook Roundtable and the Investment Committee’s views (as expressed by delegates’ votes), our asset allocation panel debated the key asset allocation and implementation decisions for the hypothetical portfolio for the coming 12 months.
Expert Panel | 1.00 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Philosophy

Short Course: Mastering private debt investing
Examining the unique characteristics that make private debt a compelling investment. Private debt has grown in popularity as an alternative source of debt financing, with the asset class tripling in size since 2008. Curated and produced by Portfolio Construction Forum, and led by private debt investing subject matter expert, Andrew Lockhart, this self-paced, two-hour online short course equips you with the expertise to navigate private debt investment confidently across diverse market conditions.
Metrics & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | * Premium *

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Premium | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | * Premium *

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE (incl 1.00 ethics) | Enrol

Markets

The eight headwinds threatening global growth in 2025
Looking ahead, eight risks to global GDP growth stand out. Investors will need to rethink their investment and allocation strategies to navigate an era defined by uncertainty and uneven growth.
Dambisa Moyo, Versaca Investments | Read

Strategies | Markets

What we know, what we don’t know, and what to do - Trump 2.0
In a world where Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity are ever-present and ever-changing, the act of investing is about assessing probabilities and payoffs, not trying to predict what will happen.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | 0.25 CE | Read

Markets | Investing

Green Bonds should outperform the conventional bonds market
Green bonds have outperformed conventional bonds for five of the last seven years and their potential for positive outcomes during central banks cutting cycles make them a compelling investment.
Rui Li, AXA Investment Managers | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable 2024/25
Our diverse panel of asset class experts discussed and clarified the implications of four economic scenarios for the medium-term (three-year) outlook for key asset classes, and then the Investment Committee (Summit delegates) voted to determine probabilities for each of the scenarios as inputs to the Asset Allocation Roundtable.
Expert Panel | 1.00 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable Update (Nov 2024)
At Strategies Summit in August 2024, a diverse panel of asset class experts debated the implications of four medium-term scenarios. Now, practitioners need to re-visit their medium-term outlook for investment markets.
Jonathan Ramsay, InvestSense | Watch, Listen

Markets

Elon Musk’s $2tn fiscal fantasy
Supporters often say that a businessman like Trump or Musk will know how to put America’s fiscal house in order. But the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing.
Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University | Read

Markets

Once again, it was the economy, stupid
The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris and for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House but possibly also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Markets

Brushing off the playbook - supply chains after the US election
History is rhyming again. With the return of President-elect Donald Trump and a Republican Congress, the baseline supply chain policies that investors will have to deal with look a lot like those applied in the 2016 to 2020 period.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global | 0.50 CE | Read

Strategies | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

One account should not rule them all
The widespread adoption of managed account solutions has shown a seismic shift in most investment advisers believing it is too risky to entrust just one active investment manager with building a diversified portfolio for clients.
Chris Hestelow, Allan Gray Australia | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen, Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Emerging markets have many more than 7 magnificent companies
Within emerging market economies, there are many companies that have developed to challenge the world’s best businesses. Valuations are attractive and do not reflect the underlying value of the business.
John Stavliotis, Antipodes Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing

Research Review: Forecasting fund performance
Research over the last 50+ years has questioned the ability of active fund managers to add value consistently over time. These two papers offer new methods to improve our ability to pick future winners and losers.
Ron Bird, ANU & Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

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