The recent surge in government bond yields raises a critical question - should corporations lock in debt at current interest rates before they rise further?
There is growing public alarm about how generative AI might obliterate industries and professions. What's often overlooked is that the first major victim will undoubtedly be the technology sector itself.
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
Welcome to the Thinking Differently About Markets subscriber only area...
Thinking Differently about Markets is a subscription service that enables a deeper and more realistic understanding of economic and financial dynamics, empowering greater clarity and agility in portfolio construction. It will help you create robust portfolios by deepening your understanding of how economies and markets really work.
When economists celebrate the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations next year, President Trump's mercantilism will constitute an incongruous backdrop.
I have significantly rethought the likely implications of the Trump administration's impact on the world's economies and polities. I am more optimistic.
With President Trump's tariff war in full swing, attention is turning to the "Mar-a-Lago Accord", a plan to weaken the dollar. Clever as it might be, but it is based on a flawed diagnosis.
Even if Mickey Mouse were president, the US would still be on the way to 4% growth, because US private-sector innovation promises to offset bad policies and erratic policymaking.
While some people argue that US trade tariffs will boost the domestic economy, history shows that such policies will more likely reduce international trade and increase unemployment around the world.
I have long argued the world is in the process of bifurcating into two economic ecosystems, one led by America and the other by China. As is now obvious to the world, the split is accelerating.
The supply-chain disruptions during the Covid pandemic look almost quaint compared to the fundamental reordering of global trade now underway and which threatens a prolonged period of stagflation.
In the space of little more than two months, Trump has turned the world inside out. The Trump shock is the functional equivalent of a full-blown crisis. Concerns over the global economic forecast seem almost trivial.
This narrative has been doing the rounds for a while and - in terms of unlisted property at least - has been fairly close to the mark. However, going forward, it has become a really unhelpful idea.
If there is one thing those in the finance industry should understand, it is how markets function. The starting point is the Efficient Market Hypothesis - however EMH is amazingly poorly understood.
Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. It will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help them build better quality investor portfolios.
If MAGA ultimately helps everyone break their dependency on the US consumer, the rest of the world will have much to thank Trump for. The only losers will be ordinary Americans.
For the past 30 years, a revolution has been underway in how investment markets and economies should be viewed and understood. This Backgrounder introduces the key elements of this revolution – termed Complexity Economics – and explains the implications for understanding investment market behaviour and constructing portfolios.
We should observe markets as they truly are, rather than filtering them through traditional models and assumptions. This introduction to the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, explores what it means to "think differently" by challenging conventional economic theories and developing a new perspective on market behaviour.
Enlightenment thinkers played crucial roles in shaping early economic thought, focusing on specialisation and market functions. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture traces the evolution of economic and financial theories to provide historical context to modern thinking about the markets.
Traditional thinking about markets can be limiting - understanding the broader context, rather than relying solely on predefined structures, is crucial for effective decision-making. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture looks at the concept of "markets" both theoretically and practically.
Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture explores the themes of money, debt, and financial crises, reviewing both orthodox and heterodox perspectives and how economic thinking has evolved over time.
Understanding monetary policy, credit cycles, and financial stability is crucial for navigating financial markets effectively. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture emphasises the importance of understanding market behaviour, how central banks make interest rate decisions, and the signs that indicate shifts in asset performance and potential investment opportunities.
Markets remain fundamentally games of prediction and reaction, despite technological and financial advancements that have seen financial markets expand, introducing a vast array of investment instruments. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture explores portfolio construction in a financial landscape defined by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA).
The financial landscape of the next decades will differ significantly from the past 30 years. Part of the Markets short course, Thinking Differently About Markets, this lecture brings together key themes from the previous five lectures then shifts focus towards the future of investing.
After withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement and the WHO, President Trump may pull the country out the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But a withdrawal would primarily harm the US.
Against a heightened Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) macro backdrop, it is crucial that practitioners identify and understand the gaps in markets – including the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, equity prices and economic growth, divergence in central bank policies, and valuation discrepancies between private and publicly-traded assets – to reduce the unavoidable dissonance between our own perceptions and market realities and enable us to better understand what lies ahead for economies and investment markets so we can reorient portfolios accordingly. Mind the gap(s)!
The new US administration could upend assumptions about global growth and markets for years to come. Investors need to prepare portfolios now for a new investing era.
Near- and medium-term gaps in current market narratives and perceptions lead to a simple conclusion - it is time for caution.
Extraordinary and interrelated developments are unfolding in politics, geopolitics and deep tech innovation. Trump's disruptive approach has enormous implications for global markets.
By combining AI, alternative data sets, and human expertise, investors can identify new themes, access untapped markets, and capitalise on market dislocations.
As inflation has re-emerged, interest rates have risen and asset prices have levelled off and even declined, a withdrawal of capital from commercial real estate lending markets is creating a new opportunity to be greedy when others are fearful.
For the last decade, technology companies have been rallying. But quality investing is more than just tech. Defensive equity growth opportunities can fill a defensive gap in portfolios.
The heightened VUCA macro environment, coupled with an unprecedented set of industry and government catalysts, is creating a generational investment opportunity for infrastructure.
As the private credit sector grows, it faces increasing media scrutiny, making a manager's approach to disclosure of default rate and causes an increasingly important consideration for investors.
The US (and soon rest of world) hasn't seen this much demand for power since World War 2. While this introduces investment possibilities for many segments, listed infrastructure is disproportionately well-placed to fill this gap.
Investors should pivot exposure to the growing number of high quality, mid-cap companies that have reinvested to develop market-leading products with global opportunities and long runways for growth.
At current valuations, high quality core bonds offer attractive yields relative to cash, as well as the prospect of higher and less volatile returns than equities over the next five years.
Direct lending has become the fastest-growing segment within private credit offering the opportunity for premium yields that are often unavailable in the public credit markets.
As investors chased Mag7, a wide valuation gap opened up. Investors need a fresh growth narrative. TICKing off four markets - China, India, Korea, and Taiwan - is the most efficient starting point and opportunities abound.
The lower coverage of SMID Caps means greater opportunity to exploit market mispricing relative to large caps.
In mid-market Australian private equity, where inefficiencies and hands-on value creation thrive, outsized returns are being captured beyond the public eye.
Understanding the drivers of and outlook for the markets is essential to multi-asset, multi-manager investing (MAMMI). However, MAMMI is full of traps. As the saying goes "It's simple, it's just not easy!".
As we progress through the Trumpification of markets, the political and information prism through which we view the world will help us mind the gap(s) between market perception and investing reality.
Our end of day session revealed delegates' views on which of the high conviction theses they'd heard through the day they intended to investigate further or implement in practice.
Our post-program Implementation Zoominar led by consulting firm, InvestSense, drew together the key takeouts from Markets Summit 2025 and the practical implications for client portfolios, turning the insights from Markets Summit 2025 into actions.
Established in 2002, Strategies Summit is THE portfolio construction strategies conference of the year. Presented each August, the program features 50+ carefully selected leading investment thinkers who will challenge and refresh your portfolio construction thinking by debating contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, for you to consider applying in practice to build better quality portfolios.
Our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...
Against a heightened VUCA macro backdrop, it is crucial we reduce the unavoidable dissonance between our own perceptions and market realities, to enable us to better understand what lies ahead for economies and investment markets and reorient portfolios accordingly. Mind the gap(s)! Markets Summit 2025 (Wed 19 Feb) will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets and help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Equity investors should set aside their fears of a second Trump presidency and focus instead on the structural opportunities presented by decarbonisation.
While America's AI industry arguably needed shaking up, the news of a Chinese startup beating Big Tech at its own game raises some difficult questions.
Near- and medium-term gaps in current market narratives and perceptions lead to a simple conclusion. It is time for caution. As an "unconstrained" investor with no one to answer to but myself, my experience suggests three courses of action.
Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA) is the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts - that is, those involved in any aspect of constructing multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios.
With monetary policy easing set to provide an additional tailwind for smaller companies, now is the time for practitioners to consider increasing global small caps exposure in portfolios.
Trump 2.0 is starting where Trump 1.0 ended – with distortions, convoluted logic, and the related risk of major policy blunders.
The 2024 US election result could potentially upend assumptions about global growth and markets in the years ahead. The next four years could be Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) on steroids!
The economic damage Trump could cause will be moderate, according to Woody Brock. His bigger concern is what could go wrong with foreign policy under Trump because, in Woody's view, the probability of a global war is higher than it has been in decades.
The consensus on Wall Street is that the equity market will keep on rising in 2025. But independent economist, Andrew Hunt, thinks differently. He argues that the US corporate sector is highly leveraged and struggling to generate profits, with private credit posing a systemic risk.
While investors considering supply chain themes face another complex year in 2025, but it would be a mistake to assume there are only risks. There are plenty of opportunities to build sustainable, competitive advantage.
Irrational markets are easy to beat? You would think so. But, to quote Yogi Berra, "In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they're different."
2024 was a year of confusing, inspiring, depressing, and energising developments on many fronts. It’s in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year’s set of global developments to watch over the next five years.
What impact will the next US administration have on economic growth and inflation? The answer is not yet clear, because while some of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies would boost growth and reduce inflation over time, others will have the opposite effect.