1. Latest US stimulus is a red flag

    There is now a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more sharply than markets expect, leading to a recession in the next one to two years.

    Brett Gillespie | 13-03-18 | More
  2. Economists vs scientists on long-term growth

    Neither policymakers nor markets should bet on the past decade's slow growth carrying over to the next. The best bet is that AI and other technologies will have a much larger impact on growth than up to now.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 12-03-18 | More
  3. IMAC4.1o: Fixed Income Investments

    This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on properties of fixed income markets, the investment features and risks of bonds, the application of the time value of money to the valuation of bonds, and the concepts of duration and convexity and their application to bond portfolio management.

    Nadima El-Hassan | 08-03-18 | More
  4. 2018 IMR Workshop

    The annual Investment Management Research Workshop showcases early stage research in the area of investments to a practitioner and academic audience. It is an initiative of the Investment Management Research Program which is presented by Portfolio Construction Forum, in collaboration with faculty of the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Business School. The IMR Program succeeds the UTS Paul Woolley Centre.

    08-03-18 | More
  5. IMAC2.3o: Applied Economics

    This lecture instructs Investment Management Analyst Course (IMAC) candidates on the fundamental of applied economics with an Australian perspective.

    Gordon Menzies | 06-03-18 | More
  6. The blockchain pipe dream

    It is high time to end the hype. Bitcoin is a slow, energy-inefficient dinosaur. Most of the coins are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble – like most bubbles – burst.

    Nouriel Roubini | 06-03-18 | 1 comment | More
  7. Beware the Bond-cano!

    The peddlers of the Bond-cano narrative give very different recommendations. Even if we buy the story, it's just not clear what to do - all of which suggests that it is just a wonderful narrative.

    Tim Farrelly | 05-03-18 | More
  8. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.

    04-03-18 | More
  9. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    04-03-18 | More
  10. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    04-03-18 | More
  11. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    04-03-18 | More
  12. Rational irrational exuberance?

    In my opinion, the asset-price volatility we have been seeing has little or nothing to do with changes in fundamentals. And the widespread use of machine-driven trading is likely making all of this worse.

    Andrés Velasco | 02-03-18 | More
  13. Working toward the next economic paradigm

    It should come as no surprise that enthusiasm for economic and financial globalisation has faltered. Building consensus around a revised unifying paradigm will not be easy.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 01-03-18 | More
  14. Research Review: Everything you need to know and a bit more

    In nine pages, this paper says all that needs to be said on the ability of any of us to estimate the true value of financial assets. The next two papers produce conflicting findings on the impact of index investing on markets.

    Ron Bird | 28-02-18 | 1.00 CE | More
  15. Comments on financial market turbulence

    Was the recent market volatility predictable? Was the volatility exogenous or endogenous in nature? What lies ahead as regards inflation and interest rates?

    Woody Brock | 22-02-18 | More
  16. Threat of a wages blow-out is real

    With unemployment at 30-year lows in many countries, practitioners should consider the possibility that wage pressures may force policymakers to tighten more aggressively, triggering substantial equity market falls.

    Brett Gillespie | 19-02-18 | More
  17. Unwinding the great QE carry trade

    Let's be absolutely clear - the recent plunge in equity markets has almost nothing to do with inflation or a changing of the guard at the Fed.

    Robert Gay | 15-02-18 | More
  18. Cryptocurrencies are a new epoch in monetary history

    The Chinese authorities recognise the potential of blockchain technology and are outpacing the US, in the race to develop an "official" cryptocurrency. If the Chinese experiment succeeds, we may witness the start of a new epoch in monetary policy.

    Niall Ferguson | 13-02-18 | 0.50 CE | More
  19. Investors need growth equities as change accelerates

    Structural change and the resulting earnings growth will always outrun interest rates in the long run, so as change continues to accelerate, investors need growth equities in their portfolio.

    Nick Griffin | 13-02-18 | 0.50 CE | More
  20. Ignore the exit ramp, better conditions ahead

    The US might have three to five years of additional growth ahead. Global synchronised growth is likely to drive earnings growth to a higher gear that warrants current elevated valuations.

    Ronald Temple | 13-02-18 | 0.25 CE | More
  21. Brace yourself for a global inflation shock

    A combination of factors is set to generate an unexpected inflationary shock to the financial markets, leading to significantly higher bond yields and a recalibration of relative valuations.

    Jonathan Pain | 13-02-18 | 0.25 CE | More
  22. Is the stock market loaded for bear?

    We are moving ever closer to the date when payment for today's recovery will fall due. Recent capital market gyrations suggest that awareness of the inevitable reckoning is already beginning to dawn.

    Dambisa Moyo | 12-02-18 | More
  23. 2018 Markets Summit - program & prep

    Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The program features 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - debating their best ideas on the key drivers of and medium-term outlook for the markets in the context of the theme - Changing gears? - and the implications for portfolios.

    12-02-18 | More
  24. The next 30 years

    There are themes and stocks that last for decades. Whether the investment horizon is three to five years, 10 years or even 30 years, it is likely investors will benefit from thinking about the universe of themes and stocks for generations to come.

    Bo Knudsen | 08-02-18 | More
  25. Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?

    It is generally accepted that stock markets provide long-term outperformance over cash. However, a recent academic research paper reveals that less than 5% of listed US companies accounted for the entire wealth creation of the US stock market since 1926.

    Nick Griffin, Munro Partners | 07-02-18 | More
  26. The blind assumption of unendingly low rates is dangerous

    The general uptrend in the broader equity market seems set to continue given economic data globally remains robust and central banks very accommodating. Given divergent risks, investors should focus more than ever on uncovering sources of idiosyncratic alpha, rather than relying on momentum or passive beta.

    Antipodes Partners | 07-02-18 | More
  27. Things break

    Every generation or so, things (in the economics world) break. We're probably at or close to one of those once-in-a-generation moments. Watching monetary indicators is key.

    Chris Watling | 07-02-18 | More
  28. Cryptoassets is an emerging asset class with huge potential

    Technological revolutions often spawn financial booms and busts - but the value proposition of blockchain is profound, and the technology has given rise to cryptoassets. Practitioners will increasingly be required to understand them.

    Catherine Wood | 06-02-18 | 1 comment | More
  29. The impact of technology on economic growth

    There are five areas where the early effects of technological change on the world economy are believed to be investible today.

    JP Morgan Asset Management | 05-02-18 | More
  30. Giddy markets and grim politics

    Headlines seeming to portend political instability and chaos have not prevented stock markets from soaring. What gives?

    Kenneth Rogoff | 19-01-18 | More
  31. 10 "fearless" predictions for 2018

    It is the time of the year when those in the forecasting business like to lay out our expectations for the coming year. Here are mine...

    Tim Farrelly | 18-01-18 | More