1. Corporate debt the next bubble to pop?

    Investment grade debt has become much riskier, default rates will rise when interest rates begin the inevitable normalisation, and credit spreads are too low – it’s a bubble waiting to burst. Actually, no.

    Tim Farrelly | 12-06-19 | More
  2. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    11-06-19 | More
  3. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

    11-06-19 | More
  4. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    11-06-19 | More
  5. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    11-06-19 | More
  6. Has a no-deal Brexit become more likely?

    If you believe the UK is turning into populist Zimbabwe or Venezuela, you should expect a no-deal Brexit. Otherwise, forget about it.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 03-06-19 | 1 comment | More
  7. Rethinking inflation targets

    The Federal Reserve is contemplating changing its framework for targeting inflation. It should conclude that the FOMC needs more patience with the current neutral stance rather than a new target.

    Robert Gay | 28-05-19 | More
  8. How inflation could return

    The inflation outlook is subject to far wider possibilities than policymakers have considered. Too little focus on structural factors could pose serious risks to economic wellbeing and financial stability.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 27-05-19 | More
  9. A carbon dividend is better than a carbon tax

    A carbon tax - while immensely popular among economists - imposes the same cost on the rich and poor. A carbon dividend would be a smart step that wouldn’t invite a yellow vest reaction.

    Mark Paul and Anthony Underwood | 23-05-19 | 1 comment | More
  10. Investment Management Research Workshop

    Established in 2008, the Investment Management Research Workshop showcases contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management. It gives you a rare opportunity to join with the full spectrum of investment management analysts - academics, professional investors, consultants, practitioners and advocates - to consider contemporary investment research.

    22-05-19 | More
  11. 2019 Investment Research Workshop - resources

    The Investment Management Research Workshop 2019 showcased contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management.

    22-05-19 | 11 comments | More
  12. Is the dollar really doomed?

    Five misplaced concerns about the future of the dollar make forecasts of a long-run collapse in the dollar problematic.

    Woody Brock | 21-05-19 | 0.50 CE | More
  13. The race of our lives revisited (in a nutshell)

    Climate change has moved faster than most thought possible. There will be exciting investment opportunities in companies focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    Jeremy Grantham | 16-05-19 | 1.00 CE | More
  14. Residential property prices are falling - what's next?

    The long boom in Australian residential property prices seems to have finally ended. Further falls to come will cause the Australian economy to slow but will not cause a recession.

    Tim Farrelly | 07-05-19 | 0.25 CE | 2 comments | More
  15. Leave the renminbi out of US-China trade talks

    If a final US-China trade deal prevents China from gaining greater monetary-policy autonomy, it could create major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 06-05-19 | More
  16. Goldilocks growth

    With Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a record in June, the question is whether this is a resumption of the bull market or only a temporary bounce.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 02-05-19 | More
  17. Markets Summit 2019 key takeouts

    These are my key takeouts from Markets Summit 2019's Faculty of investment thinkers from around the world offering their high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets.

    Robert Huebscher | 30-04-19 | More
  18. China is not in crisis, it's reforming

    China is frequently presented as a source of crisis or instability for the global economy. However, the picture is one of imperfection, not peril.

    Julian McCormack | 29-04-19 | More
  19. On reflection: Forum retrospectives

    Each February, our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...

    12-04-19 | More
  20. No middle-income trap for China

    Yes, the days of 10% Chinese growth are over. That was inevitable. But there are five key reasons to dismiss the now-widespread diagnosis that China is ensnared in the middle-income trap.

    Stephen Roach | 10-04-19 | More
  21. 2019 Investment Research Workshop - overview & registration

    The Investment Management Research Workshop showcases contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management. The 2019 IMR Workshop features a faculty including: Prof Moshe Milevsky, PhD; University of Sydney Business School's Susan Thorp, PhD; Macquarie University's Tim Kyng, PhD; Portfolio Construction Forum's Prof Ron Bird; Grattan Institute's Brendan Coates; and, ANU's Geoff Warren, PhD.

    05-04-19 | 5.50 CE | More
  22. Climate change-related regulation

    Compared to physical risks, investors have a much greater ability to incorporate carbon and related pollution regulations into investment decisions.

    Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 25-03-19 | More
  23. Understanding the Fed's dovish turn

    The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. The new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.

    Nouriel Roubini | 19-03-19 | More
  24. 2019 Markets Summit - my key take outs

    My key takeout was that perhaps markets entered an inflection point through 2018 and, accordingly (if they haven't already), investors need to think about how they position portfolios.

    Stephen Miller | 13-03-19 | More
  25. Modern Monetary Nonsense

    The arguments of supporters of Modern Monetary Theory have a grain of truth, but also rest on some fundamental misconceptions and have unpredictable, potentially serious consequences.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 11-03-19 | More
  26. Bond returns are competitive again

    For the first time in a decade, bonds can compete against equities on returns. High quality, investment grade corporate bonds can deliver mid-single digit returns for a third of the volatility of equities.

    Mark Kiesel | 08-03-19 | More
  27. Physical impacts of climate change

    Climate change is affecting countries, companies, assets and communities in a variety of ways. Good stewardship of client assets requires investors to consider these issues.

    Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 05-03-19 | More
  28. A mixed economic bag in 2019

    There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent - albeit mediocre - year for the global economy. But a global growth-stall and sharp market downturn could come in 2020.

    Nouriel Roubini | 01-03-19 | 1 comment | More
  29. The heat is on - where investing meets investors

    Human beliefs, biases and behaviours are central to the behaviour of financial markets, causing financial and economic instability to persist.

    Pippa Malmgren | 20-02-19 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  30. The heat is on - where to from here?

    Hamish Douglass, Andrew Canobi, Brett Gillespie, Tim Farrelly, Charles Jamieson, Peter Kim, Stephen Miller, AJ Qualtieri, Randal Jenneke, and Thomas Vester convened to debate their Markets Summit 2019 key takeouts and the portfolio construction implications.

    Expert Panel | 19-02-19 | 1.00 CE | More
  31. Uncertainty requires more dynamism in delivering outcomes

    Few clients have the 20-year horizon required for today’s strategically-oriented models to become consistent with suggested outcomes, such as CPI+4%. This builds in a structural mismatch.

    Michael Kelly | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  32. There will be no global recession in 2019 or 2020

    Investors are so focused on predicting the end of this economic cycle they have missed the fact that it simply won't. A recession will be avoided and the cycle will extend.

    Bob Michele | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | 2 comments | More
  33. Take your cues from the tide, invest with the flow

    It’s a Quantitative Tightening world and the tide is receding. QT appears set to continue in 2019 and in this more volatile environment, bonds should continue to perform well.

    Brett Lewthwaite | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  34. Banks will act more as a cushion than cause in the next cycle

    Banks are a defensive fixed income investment. This may sound counterintuitive only a decade removed from the most prolific financial crisis of our lifetime.

    Attilio Qualtieri | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  35. China is reforming, not in crisis

    Nearly a decade after one of the great debt binges of all time, Chinese economic growth and credit creation have slowed. Today, stimulus is being undertaken. This is not a crisis, this is reform.

    Julian McCormack | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  36. Rotate to high grade defensive assets before the cycle ends

    As recessionary pressures continue to build, rotating portfolios toward high grade, defensive assets will prove to be a prescient asset allocation decision for investors.

    Charles Jamieson | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  37. Follow emerging market fundamentals, not the front pages

    The vast majority of emerging market economies are fundamentally healthy and are being driven by broad thematics, not just evolving consumption patterns.

    Projit Chatterjee | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  38. Listed infrastructure is the growth opportunity of the 2020s

    While infrastructure is known as a defensive asset class, it is set for enormous growth over coming decades, making it an attractive investment proposition for years to come.

    Sarah Shaw | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  39. The New Neutral is a long-term global reality

    Recent central bank decisions have strengthened the conviction that the New Neutral is a global reality which will have long-term implications on investment decisions.

    Rob Mead | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  40. Global high yield investing is a long-term income solution

    Global high yield corporate bonds represent an attractive asset class for investors searching for a diversified source of income.

    Adam Grotzinger | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  41. Being the most trusted brand is essential in fiery times

    The best chance for survival among what were regarded as the most defensive of stocks is to be the biggest, most revered brand – or at least hold second spot. Others will struggle and many will disappear.

    Vihari Ross | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  42. The corporate bond outlook is more risk for less return

    Easy money in credit markets is gone, and corporate bonds face more risk for less return. Structural liquidity deterioration raises a black swan risk of a disorderly sell-off spilling into other markets.

    Gopi Karunakaran | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  43. Tail risks are becoming real risks for Australian equities

    The new normal is a world of higher systemic risk, which implies portfolio managers will need to dig more deeply into their tool kit of risk-understanding and mitigation techniques.

    Randal Jenneke | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  44. Emerging market investing requires patience to succeed

    Returns in emerging market equities have been disappointing in recent years. But the stark rise of populism in the western world may actually present an opportunity for many emerging economies.

    Thomas Vester | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  45. Europe will trigger the next global volatility event

    Slowing growth with extreme recession risk, coupled with a combative populist government, may well see Italy trigger a crisis in European debt and the currency, causing a substantial global volatility event.

    Vimal Gor | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  46. Populism requires a more active approach to investing

    Rates are normalising, populism is on the rise, technology is driving disruption. But not every perceived winner will win and not every perceived loser will be destroyed forever.

    Jacob Mitchell | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  47. Stay invested but prepare for volatility

    On some measures, global equity valuations are the most attractive in several years. Risks, however, have certainly increased and in many cases are more difficult to frame.

    Ronald Temple | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  48. The post GFC 'cheap money' bubbles are popping

    For most of the last 10 years, the world's major central banks have been creating significant amounts of cheap money, inflating several bubbles. Those bubbles are beginning to burst.

    Chris Watling | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  49. Every investor needs to understand geopolitical challenges

    Drawing on his unique background as part of the elite leadership team of the CIA's Clandestine Service, David shares his views and analysis of the current geopolitical landscape.

    David Bridges | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  50. Investors need a new measure of economic growth

    Much macroeconomic analysis is very narrow in scope. ESG factors are ignored all together. A new indicator of national progress measures economic dynamism and progress on meeting ESG goals.

    Stephanie Kelly | 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More
  51. The world has too much debt

    Two of the defining characteristics of the global investment landscape over the last 30 years are being reversed - globalisation (by economic nationalism) and finalisation (as we've reached peak debt).

    Jonathan Pain | 19-02-19 | 0.50 CE | More
  52. 2019 Markets Summit - program & prep

    Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The jam-packed blended learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view), in the context of the theme - The heat is on! - and the implications for portfolios.

    14-02-19 | More
  53. Reflections on the yield curve: Is this time different?

    Yes, it’s possible that we enter a recession in the not too distant future. But the best curve to forecast recessions still has a positive slope.

    Payden & Rygel | 05-02-19 | More
  54. Whither the Chinese consumer?

    For most of the past decade, the growing spending power of China’s expanding middle class has fueled the global economy. Not so anymore.

    Jim O'Neill | 04-02-19 | More
  55. Is 2019 the year the bubble bursts?

    We see three scenarios for 2019 - is it a benign outlook like 2016? A bubble bursting like 2000? Or will inflation accelerate?

    Brett Gillespie | 29-01-19 | More
  56. Risks to the global economy in 2019

    Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 15-01-19 | More
  57. The volatility of profit margins

    Cyclical volatility in earnings has increased dramatically since the 1980s. The recent Apple profit warning is an excellent case in point.

    Robert Gay | 14-01-19 | More