There is now a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more sharply than markets expect, leading to a recession in the next one to two years.
Neither policymakers nor markets should bet on the past decade's slow growth carrying over to the next. The best bet is that AI and other technologies will have a much larger impact on growth than up to now.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on properties of fixed income markets, the investment features and risks of bonds, the application of the time value of money to the valuation of bonds, and the concepts of duration and convexity and their application to bond portfolio management.
The annual Investment Management Research Workshop showcases early stage research in the area of investments to a practitioner and academic audience. It is an initiative of the Investment Management Research Program which is presented by Portfolio Construction Forum, in collaboration with faculty of the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Business School. The IMR Program succeeds the UTS Paul Woolley Centre.
This lecture instructs Investment Management Analyst Course (IMAC) candidates on the fundamental of applied economics with an Australian perspective.
It is high time to end the hype. Bitcoin is a slow, energy-inefficient dinosaur. Most of the coins are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble – like most bubbles – burst.
The peddlers of the Bond-cano narrative give very different recommendations. Even if we buy the story, it's just not clear what to do - all of which suggests that it is just a wonderful narrative.
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.
The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
In my opinion, the asset-price volatility we have been seeing has little or nothing to do with changes in fundamentals. And the widespread use of machine-driven trading is likely making all of this worse.
It should come as no surprise that enthusiasm for economic and financial globalisation has faltered. Building consensus around a revised unifying paradigm will not be easy.
In nine pages, this paper says all that needs to be said on the ability of any of us to estimate the true value of financial assets. The next two papers produce conflicting findings on the impact of index investing on markets.
Was the recent market volatility predictable? Was the volatility exogenous or endogenous in nature? What lies ahead as regards inflation and interest rates?
With unemployment at 30-year lows in many countries, practitioners should consider the possibility that wage pressures may force policymakers to tighten more aggressively, triggering substantial equity market falls.
Let's be absolutely clear - the recent plunge in equity markets has almost nothing to do with inflation or a changing of the guard at the Fed.
The Chinese authorities recognise the potential of blockchain technology and are outpacing the US, in the race to develop an "official" cryptocurrency. If the Chinese experiment succeeds, we may witness the start of a new epoch in monetary policy.
Structural change and the resulting earnings growth will always outrun interest rates in the long run, so as change continues to accelerate, investors need growth equities in their portfolio.
The US might have three to five years of additional growth ahead. Global synchronised growth is likely to drive earnings growth to a higher gear that warrants current elevated valuations.
A combination of factors is set to generate an unexpected inflationary shock to the financial markets, leading to significantly higher bond yields and a recalibration of relative valuations.
We are moving ever closer to the date when payment for today's recovery will fall due. Recent capital market gyrations suggest that awareness of the inevitable reckoning is already beginning to dawn.
Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The program features 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - debating their best ideas on the key drivers of and medium-term outlook for the markets in the context of the theme - Changing gears? - and the implications for portfolios.
There are themes and stocks that last for decades. Whether the investment horizon is three to five years, 10 years or even 30 years, it is likely investors will benefit from thinking about the universe of themes and stocks for generations to come.
It is generally accepted that stock markets provide long-term outperformance over cash. However, a recent academic research paper reveals that less than 5% of listed US companies accounted for the entire wealth creation of the US stock market since 1926.
The general uptrend in the broader equity market seems set to continue given economic data globally remains robust and central banks very accommodating. Given divergent risks, investors should focus more than ever on uncovering sources of idiosyncratic alpha, rather than relying on momentum or passive beta.
Every generation or so, things (in the economics world) break. We're probably at or close to one of those once-in-a-generation moments. Watching monetary indicators is key.
Technological revolutions often spawn financial booms and busts - but the value proposition of blockchain is profound, and the technology has given rise to cryptoassets. Practitioners will increasingly be required to understand them.
There are five areas where the early effects of technological change on the world economy are believed to be investible today.
Headlines seeming to portend political instability and chaos have not prevented stock markets from soaring. What gives?
It is the time of the year when those in the forecasting business like to lay out our expectations for the coming year. Here are mine...