Will inflation in the US this year represent "overheating" of the economy as a whole? Most likely, it will not. And while some worry that we may be returning to the 1970s, this is highly unlikely.

Tough conditions in global supply chains in Q1 2021 - congested logistics networks, continued demand growth and cost inflation - will take much of Q2 2021 to unwind.

I should have known better when I came off the bench as a retired forecaster last summer and penned a piece with the now memorable title of "America's Coming Double Dip".

A generation of great international economists is passing from the scene. Richard Cooper, Robert Mundell and John Williamson each made important contributions on a variety of topics including to the ongoing debate about optimal currency arrangements.

With a healthy consumer, accommodative policy, accelerating GDP and the potential for herd immunity from Covid-19, the risk of a US inflationary overshoot has increased. We believe any inflation scare, however, will be short-lived.

There is a growing debate about whether the inflation that will arise over the next few months will be temporary, reflecting the sharp bounce-back from the Covid-19 recession, or persistent, reflecting both demand-pull and cost-push factors.

The greenback's dominance may well be more fragile than it appears, because expected future changes in China's exchange-rate regime are likely to trigger a significant shift in the international monetary order.

The price of Bitcoin, the canonical cryptocurrency, is so volatile that it is almost impossible to imagine it becoming a reliable store of value or means of exchange.

The same millennials who were shafted over a decade ago are being duped again. Workers who rely on gig, part-time, or freelance "employment" are being offered a new rope with which to hang themselves.

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...

The herculean tug of war between stronger economic growth and higher bond yields will be the defining battleground of 2021 and will be accompanied by violent and rapid-fire recalibrations of relative valuations.

Our diverse panel debated which of the high-conviction propositions they heard at Markets Summit 2021 resonated most strongly, which they disagreed with most - and the portfolio construction implications.

Often underrepresented in investor portfolios due to concerns around liquidity, private equity investing with a truly hands-on approach allows active investors to maximise their capital growth potential.

Rather than accepting lower returns for liquidity, investors should go back to the drawing board and re-assess their need for daily liquidity.

Those who cling to yesterday’s narrative may forego one of the great trades of recent decades as the world shifts to a "global reopening" narrative and away from one of "secular stagnation".

The energy transition has the potential to be as transformative for the world economy and geopolitical landscape as the digital revolution has been since the 1980s.

With the official cash rate near zero, it's time to head back to the drawing board to find a more consistent source of income. Private debt provides a compelling alternative source of income in a portfolio.

De-carbonisation, company management and ESG scrutiny are diminishing the influence of commodity prices on resources alpha generation. If long term sentiment begins to turn, there is significantly more value to be found in the resources sector.

Covid-accelerated trends - including digitalisation, geopolitical tension and the impact of ESG on the cost of capital - are structural and divergence within equity markets could increase.

The 60/40 balanced portfolio needs to be “stretched” or redesigned, to mitigate the impact of low yields on overall portfolio risk and return. Investors need to make their equity allocation work harder and consider new diversifiers.

Fiscal stimulus and the vaccine have fuelled an extraordinary rally in equities - but, ultimately, stocks are at record highs because of extraordinarily low market interest rates. Investors should be wary of inflation, but also of being underweight equities.

Supply chain decision makers must continue to focus on mitigating risk in 2021, not maximising growth. Political risks outbalance opportunities.

The consensus view that US equities are in a bubble is overblown. Go back to the drawing board when it comes to your views on US valuations - because this time IS different.

Pent up consumer demand, fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy set the stage for a sharp global recovery. It is back to the drawing board in a high growth environment.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate outlook remains unclear, yet stock markets continue to climb this wall of worry. It is time to pause, reflect and go back to the drawing board! Markets Summit will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (geopolitical, economic and asset class), and the opportunities and risks ahead, on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

The illiquidity premium offers strong value over the cyclical horizon. A combination of interest rate, credit and illiquidity risks provide diversified fixed income exposures with attractive return potential.

The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate and is transforming macroeconomic policy, geopolitics and sustainability.

It's time to construct portfolios with investment strategies designed to advance humankind towards a global sustainable economy, a just society, and a better world.

Structural factors will ensure that the cash rate cannot rise over the medium term, resulting in negligible cash returns. A core fixed income exposure consisting of Australian government bonds will outperform cash over the long term.

During 2020, G-REITs experienced a once in a generation demand shock. With new building supply and REIT balance sheets in good shape, G-REITs are well positioned as economies reopen and demand returns. Now is the time for G-REITs.

Believe in sustainable investing or not, investors need to understand its impact on investment returns and portfolio construction as capital markets stand on the cusp of a transformation to an ESG world.

Portfolio construction practitioners must go back to the drawing board and focus systematically on the constraints facing global policymakers, in order to successfully extract the implications for portfolios.

Scale-as-a-service cloud computing platforms allow companies - both large and small - to get their IT infrastructure up and running in minutes. Over the next decade, this will have profound implications for the global economy.

The US, Australia and their allies have long depended on global "rules of the game" for their major companies and sectors to flourish. Australia and the US will have to accept that China will play an ever greater role shaping these rules.

Jonathan Pain, Author of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at Portfolio Construction Forum's professional development programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Special Interests Forum (elective) Room 5 livestream.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Special Interests Forum (elective) room 3 livestream.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Critical Issues Forum (plenary) livestream.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Critical Issues Forum (plenary) livestream.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Special Interests Forum (elective) room 1 livestream.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Special Interests Forum (elective) room 2 livestream.

As a tumultuous 2020 neared its end, the clouds of uncertainty appeared to be parting. Successful vaccine trials raised hopes that the Covid-19 pandemic would soon be over, the US election result promised a more geopolitical- and market-friendly presidency and government, and rebounding investor confidence fuelled a dramatic rotation into value stocks. Yet that confidence is already being tested in 2021 as new Covid variants take hold, doubts emerge about the efficacy of vaccinations, and the Democrats’ Senate win stirs fears of an aggressive spending, taxation, and regulatory agenda that’s not favourable to business. The geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate outlook remains unclear, yet stock markets continue to climb this wall of worry. It is time to pause, reflect and go back to the drawing board!

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This page takes you to the Markets Summit 2021 Special Interests Forum (elective) Room 4 livestream.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate outlook remains unclear, yet stock markets continue to climb this wall of worry. It is time to pause, reflect and go back to the drawing board! Markets Summit will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (geopolitical, economic and asset class), and the opportunities and risks ahead, on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) is the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts - that is, those involved in any aspect of constructing multi-manager portfolios, whether practitioner or advocate.

The Investment Management Analyst Certificate (IMAC) advances investment management analyst knowledge, skill and expertise in a definitive set of competencies necessary for building and/or advising on quality multi-manager portfolios. It is both a structured post-graduate certificate course in its own right, and the Australian-based Registered Education Program for the global Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) program.

After the First World War, we got the Roaring 20s. Now, a century later, it looks like we are going to do the same again.

The madness at the end of January around a few now-famous stocks can largely be explained by the fact that all of five conditions for market madness were met.

Covid-19 has offered some tough but useful lessons about governance. Many wealthy countries have not managed the crisis as well as many poorer and vulnerable countries.

Economic recovery, like Covid-19 vaccines, will not be evenly distributed around the world over the coming two years. A rising tide of recovery is inevitable, but it will not lift all boats.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate outlook remains unclear, yet stock markets continue to climb this wall of worry. It is time to pause, reflect and go back to the drawing board! Markets Summit will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (geopolitical, economic and asset class), and the opportunities and risks ahead, on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

In the early and middle stages of an economic expansion, running with the herd can be a beneficial and safe proposition. As this recovery unfolds, should investors break off, worried about the formation of a bubble?

November 2021 will mark the 20th anniversary of the BRIC acronym that I coined to capture the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Many commentators will be revisiting the concept - so here are my own thoughts on the matter.

I believe time allows signals to surface amidst the ubiquitous noise. In the spirit of Annie's "just thinking about tomorrow..." in which she pleads for us to "hang on 'til tomorrow, come what may," I present my 2021 predictions for the coming five years.