Whether the dollar retains its global role will hinge on whether the US brings its soaring debts under control, avoids another unproductive debt-ceiling showdown, and gets its economic and political act together more generally.

Artificial intelligence will revolutionise our lives - but investors should beware the lofty multiples being assigned to AI-related stocks. We are in a replay of the dotcom bubble.

Owning or not owning 4% of the global equity market is not going to make or break any portfolio. As for being too big to ignore? It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...

The distinction between free trade and protectionism not only misrepresents recent history, it also misconstrues today's policy transitions and the conditions needed for a healthy global economy.

August 1982 was a banner month. It saw the dawn of a new regime for investors – and for record labels – that was to run for 40 years. But in 2022, cash rates finally ended their 40-year decline. And the world turned for investors.

Now that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will accept new members, can the grouping pose a genuine challenge to the prevailing global-governance institutions?

Three gigantic, global, interconnected risks have the potential to upend the world as we know it. Investors who understand these will be better positioned to successfully navigate the uncertainty plaguing our world.

At a time when "you can do anything", there are meaningful implications and opportunities for portfolio rebalancing and investors still structurally underweight bonds need to put aside recency bias and "do something" - now.

Opinions about private markets are often not rooted in facts, due in part to the fact that data on private markets has been scarce. But data is available and it debunks some of the common misconceptions about private markets.

Markets have undergone a regime shift - to prosper, we need to understand the factors that will be crucial to building multi-asset portfolios capable of delivering financial wellbeing in the years ahead.

This is Part One of our annual three-part Strategies Conference Investment Committee hypothetical. Our
independent consulting firm has provided a global economic outlook for the next three years, using a scenarios-based economic modelling philosophy.

Beyond a near-term sluggish outlook for global growth, practitioners should think about three key forces which will drive long-term market risks and opportunities.

Achieving equity like returns with much lower risk and equivalent liquidity is the holy grail that is now on offer from high yield.

Since central banks abandoned their ultra-loose monetary policies, currencies once again offer a source of investment returns, as well as portfolio diversification.

For the first two decades of their life, hedged funds produced outstanding returns on average. For the past 20 years, it's not been so good. In this Spotlight, we review the reasons why, and whether there are any hedge funds worthy of inclusion in portfolios.

While the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves is in long-term decline, the currency's dominance will continue despite the rising risk of embedded inflation.

While a severe hurricane for the global economy looks less likely than it did a few months ago, we are still likely to encounter a tropical storm that could cause significant economic and financial damage.

As economies slow, fixed income will once again provide portfolio diversification, allowing practitioners to focus on capturing long-term trends such as climate change and artificial intelligence.

As we move into an era which is both more inflationary and more volatile, asset allocators will need to adapt in order to deliver returns. A dynamic and unconstrained approach to asset allocation will become essential.

Until the early 1950s, investing was an art. Then, along came the publication of work undertaken by Harry Markowitz (1952). Over a 20-year period, this played the primary role in moving investing from an art to a science.

Protecting capital in down markets is the foundation for superior returns – and quality investing, with a long-term investment horizon, protects shareholder wealth on the downside, while capturing steady capital growth.

In recent decades, the world's wealth soared as low interest rates drove up asset prices. But the global balance sheet is rife with fragilities. How the world borrows, lends, and creates wealth may change fundamentally.

Gold has fascinated investors and analysts for decades. But it is a poor hedge against inflation over meaningful time horizons, and it is close to its highest real price in 800 years.

Over the past 15 years, as behavioural sciences gained widespread recognition, economics has progressively acknowledged the significance of the biases that drive individuals and firms to behave irrationally.

farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...

The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed.

Active management has consistently delivered outperformance in small companies as the opportunity set allows managers to demonstrate both stock selection and portfolio construction skill.

We should never let rules of thumb override financial fundamentals, but there are times when fundamentals become quite hazy. Recent inflation data suggests that we are in such a period right now.

Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA) is the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts - that is, those involved in any aspect of constructing multi-manager, mulit-asset portfolios, whether practitioner or advocate.

Throughout history, technological change has created both winners and losers. There is no reason why AI, like previous technologies, shouldn't produce more of the former than the latter.

Only buy High Yield Debt when it is super cheap? It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

Fragmentation and decoupling are becoming the new normal - US and China remain on a collision course, and a dangerous deepening of the ongoing "geopolitical depression" is all but inevitable.

Investors today have more knowledge than any prior generation, however there remains a chasm between knowing and doing. Acknowledging we are all biased, because we are all human, is the first step to better decisions.

The energy transition represents the greatest economic opportunity since the industrial revolution. Reliably capturing the potential and delivering tangible environmental impact requires three core beliefs.

In a wide-ranging speech last week, Janel Yellen reversed the terms of US engagement with China, prioritising national-security concerns over economic considerations.

Until the BRICS countries can find a credible alternative for their own savings, the greenback's dominance will not really be in doubt.

The basic principle of duration risk seems to have been lost on many bankers, fixed-income investors, and bank regulators. After being a non-factor for the last 15 years, the interest-rate sensitivity of deposits has returned to the fore.

Speculation that the world is deglobalising misses the mark - global integration is evolving, not retreating, in the digital era. Our world has changed.

India is poised to become the world's most important country in the medium term. Yet the model that has driven India's growth now threatens to constrain it.

America, China, and Russia are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.

Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year, focusing on the key drivers and outlook for the markets. As usual, 2023 Faculty were each challenged to offer their best high conviction proposition in the context of the program theme - this year, "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!" Their high-conviction faculty propositions can be distilled into three key discussion threads, supporting the case that, for portfolios, every VUCA cloud has a silver lining! Watch the highlights video, read the key takeouts - and then delve into the high conviction presentations that most interest you.

As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.

Investors need to leverage the experience of past decades while also humbly contemplating an uncertain outlook. Compared to any post-WWII period, this time really is different!

The pre-pandemic New Normal decade introduced investors to TINA - there is no alternative. With interest rates and bond yields having moved higher, it's time to say goodbye to TINA because bonds are back.

In these unsettled VUCA conditions, private debt can offer short duration with a focus on capital preservation, a silver lining for investors in the form of consistent, risk-adjusted returns and income.

Those constructing portfolios must understand the nuances of bond risk/return drivers and how bond market performance can be impacted by different macro scenarios. Opportunities abound.

The RBA is set to continue rate hikes that will bring on an earnings recession in 2023. Use Australian equity market weakness later in this year as the silver lining to position for an improved long-term outlook for Australian equities.

Global demand for greater computing power continues to escalate, presenting an exciting silver lining of possibilities and investment potential.

Inclusion of private equity as an alternative asset in portfolios is an out-of-date approach that does not consider secular trends in companies staying private and the unfolding democratisation of PE.

As economies continue to recover from the catastrophe of Covid-19 lockdowns, we must re-embrace the pursuit of progress, an idea that is central to science, freedom, and a thriving society.

Although the consequential volatility casts a VUCA cloud over global REIT performance, the silver lining is that this is transitory, in part reflecting a number of the sector's key attributes.

Sustainability is at the core of future societies. By channelling investments in companies with sustainable practices, heightened by environmental and social conscience, investors can seize opportunities in transitioning economies.

After a chaotic period, across most asset classes, silver linings are emerging. Global equity investors can capture these by identifying companies best placed to benefit from shifts in energy and technology.

Once the decision has been made to invest in global small caps, fundamentals return to the fore. Limited research coverage and inefficiencies in the market are the opportunity.

Investors will have to work harder to make money than just owning US beta. The silver lining is that there are large equity markets and sectors that are cheap with significant growth drivers.

After a lost decade, cyclical and structural headwinds are abating for emerging market equities, while profound secular changes are becoming tailwinds. But the path ahead will look very different to the past.

ESG analysis advances and drives sustainable investing by helping investment practitioners develop a clearer view of a company's true market value, consistent with their fiduciary duty.

Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2023 they most strongly agreed with and why, including identifying "silver linings" (investment opportunities not yet fully priced into the market) and which they disagreed with most and why - and the portfolio construction implications of both.

There was plenty of food for thought and grist for the investment portfolio mill, coming out of the recent Markets Summit 2023 "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!".

Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. For the first time in decades, an inflationary gale is rattling financial markets. Many post-GFC tailwinds have gone into reverse. This once-in-a-career regime shift poses many challenges for portfolio construction practitioners. The high VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) market environment continues! Yet, opportunities abound for who reorientate portfolios accordingly. Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining! Markets Summit 2023 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

The concept of "transitory inflation" is making a comeback. Looking ahead to the rest of the year and early 2024, three inflation scenarios stand out for me.

Many who attended this year's World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile this optimism economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.

This lecture argues that a diversified portfolio of core fixed income securities is an essential component of an optimal multi-asset portfolio. What's your philosophy?

Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?

This Spotlight highlights that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors' portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk. Read the abridged report.

This Spotlight finds that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors' portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk. Read the full report.

Uncertainty and change are unavoidable realities of life. In the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty, I offer you this year's global developments to watch over the next five years.