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Is the Fed behind the curve?
Many observers conclude that the Fed is behind the curve because a central bank supposedly should not persist with a negative real policy rate at full employment. That is correct - but the question remains "how much?"
| 20-09-17 | More -
The mystery of the missing inflation
Since mid 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion - yet inflation has not picked up. Why?
| 19-09-17 | More -
The ASX200 is too concentrated - reduce weights!
Simply observing the concentration inherent in the index and reducing Australian Equity weights is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.
| 18-09-17 | More -
farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...
11-09-17 | More -
farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.
11-09-17 | More -
farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
11-09-17 | More -
farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)
The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...
11-09-17 | More -
America and China's codependency trap
US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.
| 05-09-17 | More -
The truth about the IT Revolution
Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.
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The persistence of global imbalances
The US has run chronic current-account deficits for almost two generations. Pointing the finger at surplus countries is getting old.
| 31-08-17 | More -
Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns
To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Democratic politics & market economics are the axis of value
Public policy matters to performance at every level. Yet modern politics faces a crisis of ideas, relevance and trust. The trick is to let markets do their work.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Shifting global trade patterns bring new opportunities
Shifts in economic and trade regimes and turning points in markets provide asset managers the opportunity to capitalise on short-term distortions in asset prices and to invest in companies that could be winners in the long term.
| 18-08-17 | More -
Challenging assumptions
Two assumptions are under challenge - that the past offers a reliable guide to the future in terms of asset class returns; and, that traditional relative risk/return approaches can still deliver the returns investors need.
| 18-08-17 | More -
Fed balance sheet fears are much ado about nothing
With US unemployment at a 15-year low, the US Federal Reserve has greater scope to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Investors should set aside their fears, and remember that the Fed’s balance sheet provides little indication about what will happen to longer term interest rates.
| 17-08-17 | More -
Active funds will win out in bond markets
Fund flows suggest that, in aggregate, passive managers are winning the battle against their active peers. But active bond managers have a demonstrable track record of outperformance.
| 17-08-17 | More -
A sector that cannot be ignored
Having grown strongly over the last 20 years, a new study shows infrastructure investment will continue over the next two decades. It is a secular trend with long-term opportunities.
| 11-08-17 | More -
Rampant confusion - monetary policy, yield curve, bond yields
The growing belief that the US has entered an era of permanently low economic growth, due in large measure to an alleged 50% reduction in productivity growth, is wrong. Both real growth and productivity growth have been strong, not weak.
| 10-08-17 | More -
A dim outlook for Trumponomics
After six months, we can more confidently assess the prospects for the US economy under Trump's administration. Like his presidency, paradoxes abound.
| 07-08-17 | More -
The quandary on inflation
Recently, Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed dismay that inflation has remained persistently below the Fed's target of 2%. Will low inflation derail the Fed's exit strategy?
| 27-07-17 | More -
Deciphering China's economic resilience
Forecasters find it difficult to resist superimposing the outcomes in major crisis-battered developed economies on China. It has been the wrong approach in the past; it is wrong again today.
| 26-07-17 | 2 comments | More -
Research review: Anomalies and irrationality
Two new studies provide widespread evidence of mispricings/irrationalities across world equity markets. One in particular provides valuable insight into managing risk in equity investing.
| 24-07-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
A "Macroneconomic" Revolution?
Next month will mark the tenth anniversary of the GFC. Why have so few of the policies that might have ameliorated economic conditions and alleviated public resentment been implemented since?
| 19-07-17 | More -
The G20's misguided globalism
This year's G20 summit in Hamburg promises to be among the more interesting in recent years. The knee-jerk globalism that suffuses G20 meetings feeds into the populists' narrative.
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Cycles in a low growth world
In a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate and low yield environment, a cyclical economic upturn presents opportunities in asset classes such as equities and real estate
| 05-07-17 | More -
Policy rules versus discretion
Discretion in setting monetary policy has had a checkered history. Ironically, the debate on rules vs discretion is heating up just as the FOMC sets a course for unwinding its extraordinary policy measures.
| 03-07-17 | More -
Another lesson from Japan
We ignore history at great peril. The latest disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks is really not a surprise after all.
| 28-06-17 | More -
Politics and stock returns
Analysis of 5 international stock markets shows no correlation between stock returns and the political party in power.
| 27-06-17 | More -
Interest rates are artificially low?
Yes, rates are unusually low. But to describe that as unnatural shows a lack of understanding about how the world works and a refusal to accept that maybe the world has changed.
| 26-06-17 | 11 comments | More -
Masterclass NZ 2017 - Resources
Masterclass NZ is a post-graduate extension program focused on contemporary issues that are fundamental to building better quality portfolios. The one-day program is comprised of five research-based, active learning sessions:
16-06-17 | More -
Capping QE
Fed officials must take the long view and hence tend to believe they can engineer a graceful exit. Their plan is somewhat akin to 'cap and trade' schemes for weaning the world of pollutants.
| 09-06-17 | More -
The global recovery's downside risks
In the next year, a more robust and persistent global recovery will depend largely on whether policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.
| 05-06-17 | More -
Siegel v Shiller on equity valuations
Wharton's Jeremy Siegel and Yale's Robert Shiller squared off in a recent presentation about the outlook for equity returns.
| 31-05-17 | More -
Beware expensive factors
Investors should keep a close eye on relative valuations. Recent data suggests that momentum and value are trading cheaply in many markets, with low beta substantially over-priced.
| 30-05-17 | More -
Rethinking the Next China
China is upping the ante on its connection to an increasingly integrated world, running against the grain of the populist anti-globalisation backlash that is brewing in many developed countries.
| 25-05-17 | More -
The worry about indexing is overblown
The number of indexes has exploded and now exceeds the number of stocks in the US. But overall, the US stock market is still dominated by active management. And 96% of index products are of insignificant size.
| 24-05-17 | More -
The dramatic decline of risk - part 3 - Financial market risks
Overall stock market risk has declined modestly in the last 80 years, but the nature of risk has changed greatly. The risk stemming from market mistakes and, possibly, from irrationality has risen significantly.
| 22-05-17 | More -
A Trump slump?
Trump's election triggered a global stock market upswing, on confidence that he would be able to fulfill his pledge to reignite US economic growth. But how much is Trump really likely to be able to get done?
| 18-05-17 | More -
The dramatic decline of risk - part 2 - geopolitical risk
Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.
| 17-05-17 | More -
Whistling past the geopolitical graveyard
Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.
| 15-05-17 | More -
The dramatic decline of risk - part 1
In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.
| 04-05-17 | More -
Fed tightening past and present
In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for too long. The current tightening cycle will not end any differently.
| 02-05-17 | More -
On reflection: Forum retrospectives
Each February, our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year. Here are the last five years...
01-05-17 | More -
A world turned inside out
The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by 2018, the developing countries will have a greater share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries (41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.
| 01-05-17 | More -
Macron’s mission
The centrist Emmanuel Macron's success in the first round of the French presidential election is likely to re-energise Europe.
| 26-04-17 | More -
Decoding the latest Fed speak
The Fed's talk of a symmetrical inflation goal played well to markets when they were in the throes of the reflation trade. Markets are now flipping to the conclusion that transparency amounts to dovish policy.
| 20-04-17 | More -
Welcome to Trump Casino
The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?
| 11-04-17 | 11 comments | More -
Crouching Donald, Paper Tiger
Trump is learning that he is hemmed in by the same constraints as Obama's administration. As with Obama, the agent of change is turning out to be an agent of continuity.
| 10-04-17 | More -
Brexit wheels start to turn
On Wednesday, Theresa May triggered the mechanism for UK to leave the EU. But the UK's relationship with the EU has already changed, says UK MP Peter Lilley.
| 31-03-17 | More -
The temptations of a resilient China
Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.
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How will Brexit play out?
As Britain embarks on the process of disentangling itself from the EU, the country will regain control over national law and policy making, raising opportunities to implement new models.
| 28-03-17 | More -
The myth of declining living standards
Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.
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Ageing will reshape the global order
Global ageing will have significant effects over the next few decades as it reduces the economic power and geopolitical influence of developed nations, in turn increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world.
| 22-03-17 | More -
About Markets Summit
Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. It will help you understand the key investment market and asset class opportunities (and risks) ahead, to aid your search for return and in building better quality investor portfolios.
21-03-17 | More -
What's a president to do?
Trump promised a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes - but has quickly discovered that the US political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change. So what will an impatient president do?
| 20-03-17 | More -
Rethinking productivity growth
In thinking about the future of growth, and the opportunities that continued growth will open up for all of humanity, we should reflect on how far we have come.
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The three Trumps
What Donald Trump's rise to the US presidency portends requires unraveling three mysteries - because there are three versions of Trump.
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Navigating normalisation
History indicates a reasonably graceful exit from ultra-low interest rates is possible - and that investors can weather the storm with the right strategy. Let's sort out which risks are worth worrying about and which are not.
| 01-03-17 | More -
2017 Markets Summit - Webcast
Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.
01-03-17 | More -
The wrong side of maybe fallacy
Monte Carlo analysis is commonly used to evaluate retirement spending plans - but our cognitive and behavioural biases may interfere with proper interpretation of the results.
| 28-02-17 | More -
Low interest rates matter. So do imputation credits
A recent, widely circulated article suggested the major Australian banks are overpriced. But including the effect of imputation and a view on interest rates makes a huge difference...
| 27-02-17 | More -
Economic growth and equity market returns
This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and equity market returns. Much of the literature has focused on the US so this analysis includes Australia and the UK, too.
| 20-02-17 | 6 comments | More -
Markets Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts
Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios. Here are our key takeouts.
17-02-17 | More -
The winds have changed
The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...
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Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Stereotypes and noise obscure good decisions
Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Credit - the epicentre of the next crisis
Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Winds have changed
The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Australian equities portfolios are vulnerable to inflation
Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.
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Turbulent US-China ties to test the region
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Now is the time to accumulate duration
As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.
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There are 4 fundamental decisions to make now for portfolios
When positioning a multi-asset, portfolio for the medium-term, there are four fundamental decisions we must make now. They are, in some cases, interdependent.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Australian real estate is in for a soft landing
A-REITs may face headwinds over the next two years, but total returns will likely remain positive, before returning to a more normal level of 8% to 10% per annum.
| 14-02-17 | More -
The hunt for yield is over
Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.
| 14-02-17 | 2 comments | More -
Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air"
The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Australian government bonds can still provide positive returns
There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans
Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".
It's time to rotate into loans! -
Rising rates, populism... but infrastructure remains reliable
For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Winds of change are driving opportunities in Europe and Korea
Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Caveat Emptor
A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Panel: The winds of change
Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
The Winds of change are stronger than you think
Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.
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We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error
2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your peril
With Trump, Brexit, Italy's "No" and China's currency woes, the world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown. Investors should aim for capital preservation until the veil of uncertainty over future policies starts to lift.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Populist discontent a danger for markets
Governments must find a way to reconcile open markets with more evenly distributed income growth, or globalisation may reverse with dire implications for risk assets.
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Winds of change are stronger than you think
Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty
2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.
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The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump
There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
The winds of change
Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Why Trump can't bully China
The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.
| 13-02-17 | More -
Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction
In 2002, we embarked on a quest to identify the secular forces which would substantially influence markets over the coming decade. We proposed five megatrends - which still drive portfolio construction today.
| 13-02-17 | More -
The 4th industrial revolution
We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In the end, it all comes down to people and values.
| 10-02-17 | More -
2017 key themes and risks
The biggest event for global financial markets in 2017 is likely to have taken place on 20 January. How the Trump Presidency unfolds will clearly have a significant impact not just on the US but on global markets in 2017 and beyond.
| 10-02-17 | More -
2017 Global Outlook
The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.
| 10-02-17 | More -
Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts
Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA? Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.
| 02-02-17 | 2 comments | More -
Tighter monetary conditions
The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.
| 01-02-17 | More -
An unstable economic order?
The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.
| 31-01-17 | More -
Watching the Donald show is fun, but...
America is living through a kind of Trumpian Genesis - seven days of high-speed political creation. No one yet knows how all this will pan out.
| 29-01-17 | More -
Does political analysis matter when investing?
Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.
| 28-01-17 | More -
Misjudge China and Donald will never make America great again
Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.
| 22-01-17 | More -
Here's a true Trump nightmare for the liberals
No doubt the liberal media will wage unrelenting war on Trump, as they did on Nixon nearly half a century ago. But this is not the 1970s.
| 15-01-17 | More
