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Corporate debt the next bubble to pop?
Investment grade debt has become much riskier, default rates will rise when interest rates begin the inevitable normalisation, and credit spreads are too low – it’s a bubble waiting to burst. Actually, no.
| 12-06-19 | More -
farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...
11-06-19 | More -
farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...
11-06-19 | More -
farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)
The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...
11-06-19 | More -
farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
11-06-19 | More -
Has a no-deal Brexit become more likely?
If you believe the UK is turning into populist Zimbabwe or Venezuela, you should expect a no-deal Brexit. Otherwise, forget about it.
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Rethinking inflation targets
The Federal Reserve is contemplating changing its framework for targeting inflation. It should conclude that the FOMC needs more patience with the current neutral stance rather than a new target.
| 28-05-19 | More -
How inflation could return
The inflation outlook is subject to far wider possibilities than policymakers have considered. Too little focus on structural factors could pose serious risks to economic wellbeing and financial stability.
| 27-05-19 | More -
A carbon dividend is better than a carbon tax
A carbon tax - while immensely popular among economists - imposes the same cost on the rich and poor. A carbon dividend would be a smart step that wouldn’t invite a yellow vest reaction.
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Investment Management Research Workshop
Established in 2008, the Investment Management Research Workshop showcases contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management. It gives you a rare opportunity to join with the full spectrum of investment management analysts - academics, professional investors, consultants, practitioners and advocates - to consider contemporary investment research.
22-05-19 | More -
2019 Investment Research Workshop - resources
The Investment Management Research Workshop 2019 showcased contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management.
22-05-19 | 11 comments | More -
Is the dollar really doomed?
Five misplaced concerns about the future of the dollar make forecasts of a long-run collapse in the dollar problematic.
| 21-05-19 | 0.50 CE | More -
The race of our lives revisited (in a nutshell)
Climate change has moved faster than most thought possible. There will be exciting investment opportunities in companies focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
| 16-05-19 | 1.00 CE | More -
Residential property prices are falling - what's next?
The long boom in Australian residential property prices seems to have finally ended. Further falls to come will cause the Australian economy to slow but will not cause a recession.
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Leave the renminbi out of US-China trade talks
If a final US-China trade deal prevents China from gaining greater monetary-policy autonomy, it could create major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.
| 06-05-19 | More -
Goldilocks growth
With Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a record in June, the question is whether this is a resumption of the bull market or only a temporary bounce.
| 02-05-19 | More -
Markets Summit 2019 key takeouts
These are my key takeouts from Markets Summit 2019's Faculty of investment thinkers from around the world offering their high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets.
| 30-04-19 | More -
China is not in crisis, it's reforming
China is frequently presented as a source of crisis or instability for the global economy. However, the picture is one of imperfection, not peril.
| 29-04-19 | More -
On reflection: Forum retrospectives
Each February, our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...
12-04-19 | More -
No middle-income trap for China
Yes, the days of 10% Chinese growth are over. That was inevitable. But there are five key reasons to dismiss the now-widespread diagnosis that China is ensnared in the middle-income trap.
| 10-04-19 | More -
2019 Investment Research Workshop - overview & registration
The Investment Management Research Workshop showcases contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management. The 2019 IMR Workshop features a faculty including: Prof Moshe Milevsky, PhD; University of Sydney Business School's Susan Thorp, PhD; Macquarie University's Tim Kyng, PhD; Portfolio Construction Forum's Prof Ron Bird; Grattan Institute's Brendan Coates; and, ANU's Geoff Warren, PhD.
05-04-19 | 5.50 CE | More -
Climate change-related regulation
Compared to physical risks, investors have a much greater ability to incorporate carbon and related pollution regulations into investment decisions.
| 25-03-19 | More -
Understanding the Fed's dovish turn
The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. The new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.
| 19-03-19 | More -
2019 Markets Summit - my key take outs
My key takeout was that perhaps markets entered an inflection point through 2018 and, accordingly (if they haven't already), investors need to think about how they position portfolios.
| 13-03-19 | More -
Modern Monetary Nonsense
The arguments of supporters of Modern Monetary Theory have a grain of truth, but also rest on some fundamental misconceptions and have unpredictable, potentially serious consequences.
| 11-03-19 | More -
Bond returns are competitive again
For the first time in a decade, bonds can compete against equities on returns. High quality, investment grade corporate bonds can deliver mid-single digit returns for a third of the volatility of equities.
| 08-03-19 | More -
Physical impacts of climate change
Climate change is affecting countries, companies, assets and communities in a variety of ways. Good stewardship of client assets requires investors to consider these issues.
| 05-03-19 | More -
A mixed economic bag in 2019
There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent - albeit mediocre - year for the global economy. But a global growth-stall and sharp market downturn could come in 2020.
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The heat is on - where investing meets investors
Human beliefs, biases and behaviours are central to the behaviour of financial markets, causing financial and economic instability to persist.
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The heat is on - where to from here?
Hamish Douglass, Andrew Canobi, Brett Gillespie, Tim Farrelly, Charles Jamieson, Peter Kim, Stephen Miller, AJ Qualtieri, Randal Jenneke, and Thomas Vester convened to debate their Markets Summit 2019 key takeouts and the portfolio construction implications.
| 19-02-19 | 1.00 CE | More -
Uncertainty requires more dynamism in delivering outcomes
Few clients have the 20-year horizon required for today’s strategically-oriented models to become consistent with suggested outcomes, such as CPI+4%. This builds in a structural mismatch.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
There will be no global recession in 2019 or 2020
Investors are so focused on predicting the end of this economic cycle they have missed the fact that it simply won't. A recession will be avoided and the cycle will extend.
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Take your cues from the tide, invest with the flow
It’s a Quantitative Tightening world and the tide is receding. QT appears set to continue in 2019 and in this more volatile environment, bonds should continue to perform well.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Banks will act more as a cushion than cause in the next cycle
Banks are a defensive fixed income investment. This may sound counterintuitive only a decade removed from the most prolific financial crisis of our lifetime.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
China is reforming, not in crisis
Nearly a decade after one of the great debt binges of all time, Chinese economic growth and credit creation have slowed. Today, stimulus is being undertaken. This is not a crisis, this is reform.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Rotate to high grade defensive assets before the cycle ends
As recessionary pressures continue to build, rotating portfolios toward high grade, defensive assets will prove to be a prescient asset allocation decision for investors.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Follow emerging market fundamentals, not the front pages
The vast majority of emerging market economies are fundamentally healthy and are being driven by broad thematics, not just evolving consumption patterns.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Listed infrastructure is the growth opportunity of the 2020s
While infrastructure is known as a defensive asset class, it is set for enormous growth over coming decades, making it an attractive investment proposition for years to come.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
The New Neutral is a long-term global reality
Recent central bank decisions have strengthened the conviction that the New Neutral is a global reality which will have long-term implications on investment decisions.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Global high yield investing is a long-term income solution
Global high yield corporate bonds represent an attractive asset class for investors searching for a diversified source of income.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Being the most trusted brand is essential in fiery times
The best chance for survival among what were regarded as the most defensive of stocks is to be the biggest, most revered brand – or at least hold second spot. Others will struggle and many will disappear.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
The corporate bond outlook is more risk for less return
Easy money in credit markets is gone, and corporate bonds face more risk for less return. Structural liquidity deterioration raises a black swan risk of a disorderly sell-off spilling into other markets.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Tail risks are becoming real risks for Australian equities
The new normal is a world of higher systemic risk, which implies portfolio managers will need to dig more deeply into their tool kit of risk-understanding and mitigation techniques.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Emerging market investing requires patience to succeed
Returns in emerging market equities have been disappointing in recent years. But the stark rise of populism in the western world may actually present an opportunity for many emerging economies.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Europe will trigger the next global volatility event
Slowing growth with extreme recession risk, coupled with a combative populist government, may well see Italy trigger a crisis in European debt and the currency, causing a substantial global volatility event.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Populism requires a more active approach to investing
Rates are normalising, populism is on the rise, technology is driving disruption. But not every perceived winner will win and not every perceived loser will be destroyed forever.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Stay invested but prepare for volatility
On some measures, global equity valuations are the most attractive in several years. Risks, however, have certainly increased and in many cases are more difficult to frame.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
The post GFC 'cheap money' bubbles are popping
For most of the last 10 years, the world's major central banks have been creating significant amounts of cheap money, inflating several bubbles. Those bubbles are beginning to burst.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Every investor needs to understand geopolitical challenges
Drawing on his unique background as part of the elite leadership team of the CIA's Clandestine Service, David shares his views and analysis of the current geopolitical landscape.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
Investors need a new measure of economic growth
Much macroeconomic analysis is very narrow in scope. ESG factors are ignored all together. A new indicator of national progress measures economic dynamism and progress on meeting ESG goals.
| 19-02-19 | 0.25 CE | More -
The world has too much debt
Two of the defining characteristics of the global investment landscape over the last 30 years are being reversed - globalisation (by economic nationalism) and finalisation (as we've reached peak debt).
| 19-02-19 | 0.50 CE | More -
2019 Markets Summit - program & prep
Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The jam-packed blended learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view), in the context of the theme - The heat is on! - and the implications for portfolios.
14-02-19 | More -
Reflections on the yield curve: Is this time different?
Yes, it’s possible that we enter a recession in the not too distant future. But the best curve to forecast recessions still has a positive slope.
| 05-02-19 | More -
Whither the Chinese consumer?
For most of the past decade, the growing spending power of China’s expanding middle class has fueled the global economy. Not so anymore.
| 04-02-19 | More -
Is 2019 the year the bubble bursts?
We see three scenarios for 2019 - is it a benign outlook like 2016? A bubble bursting like 2000? Or will inflation accelerate?
| 29-01-19 | More -
Risks to the global economy in 2019
Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.
| 15-01-19 | More -
The volatility of profit margins
Cyclical volatility in earnings has increased dramatically since the 1980s. The recent Apple profit warning is an excellent case in point.
| 14-01-19 | More
