Democratic politics & market economics are the axis of value

Public policy matters to performance at every level. Yet modern politics faces a crisis of ideas, relevance and trust. The trick is to let markets do their work.

Ruth Richardson0.50 CE More

The ASX200 is too concentrated - reduce weights!

Simply observing the concentration inherent in the index and reducing Australian Equity weights is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.

Tim Farrelly More

Is the Fed behind the curve?

Many observers conclude that the Fed is behind the curve because a central bank supposedly should not persist with a negative real policy rate at full employment. That is correct - but the question remains "how much?"

Robert Gay More

The mystery of the missing inflation

Since mid 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion - yet inflation has not picked up. Why?

Nouriel Roubini More

Research Review: Red is bad, green is good

Two recent studies provide evidence that issues unrelated to the fundamental operation of a firm impact their market valuation.

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

The trend that is ruining finance research

The "anomalies" literature is the scientific foundation for quantitative asset management. But as three recent papers point out, "p-hacking" is only the beginning of anomalies research problems.

Michael Edesess 2 commentsMore

The truth about the IT Revolution

Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.

Woody Brock 1 commentMore

Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns

To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.

Paul Moore0.50 CE More

There are better alternatives to time-based rebalancing

Time-based rebalancing is inefficient. Research suggests that tolerance band rebalancing strategies minimise trading and boost portfolio returns. Such threshold approaches may be used in both the portfolio accumulation and decumulation phase, and act as a pre-commitment device for clients.

Michael Kitces1.00 CE More

America and China's codependency trap

US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.

Stephen Roach More

Retirement spending and biological age

There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that chronological (C) age is dominated by biological (B) age as a better proxy for longevity risk. Practitioners must consider both ages when building portfolios and structuring retirement spending strategies.

Moshe Milevsky, York University1.00 CE More

The persistence of global imbalances

The US has run chronic current-account deficits for almost two generations. Pointing the finger at surplus countries is getting old.

Carmen M. Reinhart, Harvard University More

Beating the world’s best investors

Where can practitioners take on the world’s best investors and win? Actually, in quite a lot of places.

Tim Farrelly More

Forum Fodder 22 Sept 2017

This week, Fodder starts with Ruth Richardson's presentation from our recent Strategies Conference. Nouriel Roubini gives his take on why inflation has not picked up, despite global growth accelerating. Dr Bob Gay argues that the Fed is only a little behind the curve. Tim Farrelly takes aim at the belief that Australian investors should reduce their Aussie equity holdings and we end with Professor Ron Bird reviewing two "colourful" recent investment research papers.

Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum More

Mark your diary - 2017

2017

31 Jul - 04 Aug - IMAC (Syd)
23-24 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
28/29 Sep - IMR Program Conference (Syd)
02 Oct - IMR Program Symposium (Akl)
14-21 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (UK)
2018
13 Feb - Markets Summit
14 Feb - Finology Summit
08 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Bne)
13 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Mel)
15 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
12 Apr - IMR Program Workshop (Syd)
21 Jun - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
22-23 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
27/28 Sep - IMR Program Conference (Syd)
01 Oct - IMR Program Symposium (Akl)
13-20 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)

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2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

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2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).

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2016 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.

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Backgrounder: Cyclical? Structural? Secular?

This Backgrounder defines the terms "cyclical", "structural"" and "secular" and provides examples, in order to increase the clarity of debate about what's really driving markets.

PortfolioConstruction Forum More

2016 Conference - Webcast

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

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Conference 2015: the director’s cut

PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.

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Backgrounder: The long and short of it

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

PortfolioConstruction Forum More