Behavioural biases lead to unrecognised risk-taking

Behavioural biases - substitution, aggregation, and feedback risks, overconfidence, and limited attention and availability bias - distort money managers' perceptions and lead them to take risks they don’t see.

Terrance Odean0.50 CE More

Economists vs scientists on long-term growth

Neither policymakers nor markets should bet on the past decade's slow growth carrying over to the next. The best bet is that AI and other technologies will have a much larger impact on growth than up to now.

Kenneth Rogoff More

Diversification - what it is and is not

The concept of diversification may seem to be second nature. However, some of its fundamentals are often misused and sometimes misrepresented.

Michael Furey 1 commentMore

Investors need growth equities as change accelerates

Structural change and the resulting earnings growth will always outrun interest rates in the long run, so as change continues to accelerate, investors need growth equities in their portfolio.

Nick Griffin0.50 CE More

Latest US stimulus is a red flag

There is now a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more sharply than markets expect, leading to a recession in the next one to two years.

Brett Gillespie More

The blockchain pipe dream

It is high time to end the hype. Bitcoin is a slow, energy-inefficient dinosaur. Most of the coins are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble – like most bubbles – burst.

Nouriel Roubini 1 commentMore

Cryptoassets is an emerging asset class with huge potential

Technological revolutions often spawn financial booms and busts - but the value proposition of blockchain is profound, and the technology has given rise to cryptoassets. Practitioners will increasingly be required to understand them.

Catherine Wood 1 commentMore

Ignore the exit ramp, better conditions ahead

The US might have three to five years of additional growth ahead. Global synchronised growth is likely to drive earnings growth to a higher gear that warrants current elevated valuations.

Ronald Temple0.25 CE More

Beware the Bond-cano!

The peddlers of the Bond-cano narrative give very different recommendations. Even if we buy the story, it's just not clear what to do - all of which suggests that it is just a wonderful narrative.

Tim Farrelly More

The finologist of the future is a cyborg

The combination of man and machine - tech-augmented humans or "cyborgs" - can be more effective than either alone, posing the greatest opportunity to human financial advisers in the long run.

Michael Kitces0.50 CE More

Working toward the next economic paradigm

It should come as no surprise that enthusiasm for economic and financial globalisation has faltered. Building consensus around a revised unifying paradigm will not be easy.

Mohamed El-Erian More

Rational irrational exuberance?

In my opinion, the asset-price volatility we have been seeing has little or nothing to do with changes in fundamentals. And the widespread use of machine-driven trading is likely making all of this worse.

Andrés Velasco More

Research Review: Everything you need to know and a bit more

In nine pages, this paper says all that needs to be said on the ability of any of us to estimate the true value of financial assets. The next two papers produce conflicting findings on the impact of index investing on markets.

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

Is it relevant? Is it understandable? We can all do much better….

Too much of our communication with end investors is either irrelevant, unintelligible to the average investor - or worse still, both.

Tim Farrelly0.50 CE More

The trust mandate is how asset managers win and keep clients

Trust – the belief that those to whom we are vulnerable are both willing and able to act in our interests – is the no.1 factor in the decision to select and retain an asset manager.

Herman Brodie1.00 CE More

Cryptocurrencies are a new epoch in monetary history

The Chinese authorities recognise the potential of blockchain technology and are outpacing the US, in the race to develop an "official" cryptocurrency. If the Chinese experiment succeeds, we may witness the start of a new epoch in monetary policy.

Niall Ferguson0.50 CE More

Forum Fodder 16 Mar 2018

This week in Fodder: Prof Terry Odean on behavioural biases and investment risk; Prof Ken Rogoff on AI and productivity growth; Michael Furey on diversification; Nick Griffin on why now is the time to invest in growth stocks; and, Brett Gillespie on sharper interest rate rises ahead.

Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum More

Mark your diary

20 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
18-21 Mar - CIMA IMAC (Syd)
11 Apr - Research Roundtable (Syd)
12 Apr - IMR Workshop (Syd)
25 May - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
17 Jul - Research Roundtable (Syd)
18 Jul - Research Roundtable (Mel)
22-23 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
9-12 Sep - CIMA IMAC (Syd)
20-21 Sep - IMR Conference (Syd)
13-20 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)
27 Nov - Research Roundtable (Syd)
28 Nov - Research Roundtable (Mel)


2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.


2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).


2016 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.


Backgrounder: Cyclical? Structural? Secular?

This Backgrounder defines the terms "cyclical", "structural"" and "secular" and provides examples, in order to increase the clarity of debate about what's really driving markets.

PortfolioConstruction Forum More

2016 Conference - Webcast

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.


Conference 2015: the director’s cut

PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.


Backgrounder: The long and short of it

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

PortfolioConstruction Forum More