Overestimating the EU economy

If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a plan or inadequate capacity. The problem is that the team is not playing cohesively, and the top players are struggling individually.

Mohamed El-Erian More

China will be a high-tech global power within two decades

The People's Republic of China (PRC) invests heavily in high technology research. While the world will certainly benefit from the PRC's technological ambition, it also has challenging implications.

Linda Jakobson0.25 CE More

Investment risk has nothing to do with benchmarks

To future-proof portfolios, investors looking to maximise returns should regard risk simply as the risk of losing money and in turn, best manage this risk by taking a long-term time horizon.

David Gait0.50 CE More

Research Review: The Donald's impact on markets; Robo-advice & investor behaviour

A recent research paper looks at the impact of "The Donald" on markets, while a second examines the impact of robo-advice on investor behaviour.

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

Earnings yield as an estimate for expected returns

This paper studies the long-term returns of US equities to determine whether earnings yield is a reasonably reliable estimate of forward real returns. Understanding the interplay of growth, value and yield provides a framework for assessing investments.

Douglas Isles More

What exactly is a balanced fund?

Investors are entitled to believe that the industry has standards so that they can compare like with like - but obviously that's not the case.

Tim Farrelly 2 commentsMore

Silent inflation

An inflation target of a few percentage points may seem to promote stability - but we need to consider that it may have the opposite effect on the stability of our judgments.

Robert J. Shiller More

Are markets efficient?

This view has dominated finance theory for the last 50 years or so. But prices change because people trade, and those trades leave behind a trace of all the behavioural biases people bring.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud1.00 CE More

Good governance is a strong amplifier of small cap performance

Many of Australia's small companies are potential future leaders. A sharp focus on corporate governance can help identify those high quality, sustainable businesses that can last the distance.

Michelle Lopez0.50 CE More

ABS are now more "Moneyball" than "Big Short"

Global Asset Back Securities were directly tested and survived the challenges of 2008. In this rising rate environment, they are well placed to help "future-proof" portfolios.

Richard Quin0.25 CE More

The global economy's three games

Chess masters can play simultaneously against several players. The more time passes, the more US President Trump's international economic strategy looks like such a match. There are three games.

Jean Pisani-Ferry More

Cyber conflict is a threat (to future-proof portfolios)

In the cyber world today, we are somewhere around World War I. There are more than 30 nations with effective cyber forces. Practitioners need to understand the threat cyber weapons pose to markets and investments.

David Sanger1.00 CE More

Past performance is not indicative of future performance

The familiar phrase “Past performance is not indicative of future performance” is so common we almost ignore it, but it goes to the heart of how to view and manage risk and return to future-proof portfolios.

Marc Seidner0.50 CE More

Foreign currency should be treated as a complex asset class

Investors should treat foreign currency as an asset class in its own right, considering both short- and long-term currency risks, as well as where the best return opportunities lie.

Olivia Engel0.50 CE More

Speed kills - the US economy must slow down

The US economy needs to slow down. The key question is what causes it to slow and which markets fishtail as a result. It is time to be very careful with portfolios.

Brett Gillespie More

The global impact of a Chinese recession

When China finally has its inevitable growth recession, the world is likely to discover that China's economy matters even more than most people thought.

Kenneth Rogoff More

Ideal money

Buffett called Bitcoin rat poison squared, Schiller called it a financial bubble. We disagree. Bitcoin is perhaps the most important financial innovation ever. And it is one step closer to "ideal money".

Payden & Rygel More

Human + machine in investing is better than either in isolation

To future proof portfolios, you need human skill and judgment to distinguish between the purely random and real investment insights. This is the power of combining machines and humans.

Nick Thomas-Peter0.50 CE More

Research Review: The investment behaviour of hedge funds

Two recent papers looking at hedge funds provide further evidence that the more proactive managers are the best performers.

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

Building future-proof portfolios requires emotional agility

The future is, by definition, uncertain, as are financial markets. To prosper in such an environment, we need to be emotionally agile in order to align our values and actions and, in turn, help investors achieve their financial goals.

Susan David0.75 CE More

Are financial crises unpreventable?

Banking and finance are an extreme case of governance and policy failures, where the abuse of power and lack of trust in institutions undermine capitalism and democracy.

Anat Admati 1 commentMore

Falling share prices and the US economy

It wouldn't be surprising if the 10-year T-bill rises to 5% or more in the next few years, taking real yields back to over 2%, and causing the P/E ratio for US equities to return to its historical benchmark.

Martin Feldstein More

When clients need more risk - adjust portfolios or goals?

Where portfolios are invested to achieve goals, the first step in the process should be to align the investor's goals - not the portfolio - to their risk tolerance. Implementation is then straightforward.

Michael Kitces 1 commentMore

Owner-managed companies are the backbone of a good portfolio

Research shows that owner-manager businesses reward their long-term (non-family) investors because they instill a stability, a culture, and a focus that is geared towards the long term.

Matt Williams & Emma Goodsell0.50 CE More

The world economy is facing a geopolitical inflection point

Ex-CIA Acting Director and economist, Morell worked with six US Presidents. He explains the current geopolitical inflection point that will affect the world economy for a very long time.

Michael Morell More

America's inflation risks

It was inevitable. Another upturn in the US inflation cycle is at hand. The Fed is entirely correct to send the message that there is considerably more to come in its current tightening cycle.

Stephen Roach 1 commentMore

Storm clouds for 2020

We give a 20% chance to a US corporate debt bubble burst before end 2020. It is both incredible and unconscionable that massive leverage could once again bring down Main Street a mere decade after 2008.

Woody Brock More

Forum Fodder 20 Dec 2018

Our regular Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new with our blended live and online continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

Graham Rich More