There is now a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more sharply than markets expect, leading to a recession in the next one to two years.
The US might have three to five years of additional growth ahead. Global synchronised growth is likely to drive earnings growth to a higher gear that warrants current elevated valuations.
The peddlers of the Bond-cano narrative give very different recommendations. Even if we buy the story, it's just not clear what to do - all of which suggests that it is just a wonderful narrative.| 05-03-18 | | More
The combination of man and machine - tech-augmented humans or "cyborgs" - can be more effective than either alone, posing the greatest opportunity to human financial advisers in the long run.
It should come as no surprise that enthusiasm for economic and financial globalisation has faltered. Building consensus around a revised unifying paradigm will not be easy.
In my opinion, the asset-price volatility we have been seeing has little or nothing to do with changes in fundamentals. And the widespread use of machine-driven trading is likely making all of this worse.
In nine pages, this paper says all that needs to be said on the ability of any of us to estimate the true value of financial assets. The next two papers produce conflicting findings on the impact of index investing on markets.
Too much of our communication with end investors is either irrelevant, unintelligible to the average investor - or worse still, both.
Trust – the belief that those to whom we are vulnerable are both willing and able to act in our interests – is the no.1 factor in the decision to select and retain an asset manager.| 1.00 CE | 14-02-18 | | More
The Chinese authorities recognise the potential of blockchain technology and are outpacing the US, in the race to develop an "official" cryptocurrency. If the Chinese experiment succeeds, we may witness the start of a new epoch in monetary policy.| 0.50 CE | 13-02-18 | | More
20 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
18-21 Mar - CIMA IMAC (Syd)
11 Apr - Research Roundtable (Syd)
12 Apr - IMR Workshop (Syd)
25 May - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
17 Jul - Research Roundtable (Syd)
18 Jul - Research Roundtable (Mel)
22-23 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
9-12 Sep - CIMA IMAC (Syd)
20-21 Sep - IMR Conference (Syd)
13-20 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)
27 Nov - Research Roundtable (Syd)
28 Nov - Research Roundtable (Mel)
Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.| 01-03-17 | | More
Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).| 01-03-17 | | More
Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.| 18-02-16 | | More
This Backgrounder defines the terms "cyclical", "structural"" and "secular" and provides examples, in order to increase the clarity of debate about what's really driving markets.| 09-02-15 | | More
Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.| 30-08-16 | | More
PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.| 31-08-15 | | More