If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a plan or inadequate capacity. The problem is that the team is not playing cohesively, and the top players are struggling individually.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) invests heavily in high technology research. While the world will certainly benefit from the PRC's technological ambition, it also has challenging implications.
To future-proof portfolios, investors looking to maximise returns should regard risk simply as the risk of losing money and in turn, best manage this risk by taking a long-term time horizon.
A recent research paper looks at the impact of "The Donald" on markets, while a second examines the impact of robo-advice on investor behaviour.| 1.00 CE | 19-12-18 | | More
This paper studies the long-term returns of US equities to determine whether earnings yield is a reasonably reliable estimate of forward real returns. Understanding the interplay of growth, value and yield provides a framework for assessing investments.
An inflation target of a few percentage points may seem to promote stability - but we need to consider that it may have the opposite effect on the stability of our judgments.
This view has dominated finance theory for the last 50 years or so. But prices change because people trade, and those trades leave behind a trace of all the behavioural biases people bring.
Many of Australia's small companies are potential future leaders. A sharp focus on corporate governance can help identify those high quality, sustainable businesses that can last the distance.| 0.50 CE | 23-08-18 | | More
Global Asset Back Securities were directly tested and survived the challenges of 2008. In this rising rate environment, they are well placed to help "future-proof" portfolios.| 0.25 CE | 23-08-18 | | More
Chess masters can play simultaneously against several players. The more time passes, the more US President Trump's international economic strategy looks like such a match. There are three games.
In the cyber world today, we are somewhere around World War I. There are more than 30 nations with effective cyber forces. Practitioners need to understand the threat cyber weapons pose to markets and investments.
The familiar phrase “Past performance is not indicative of future performance” is so common we almost ignore it, but it goes to the heart of how to view and manage risk and return to future-proof portfolios.
Investors should treat foreign currency as an asset class in its own right, considering both short- and long-term currency risks, as well as where the best return opportunities lie.
The US economy needs to slow down. The key question is what causes it to slow and which markets fishtail as a result. It is time to be very careful with portfolios.
When China finally has its inevitable growth recession, the world is likely to discover that China's economy matters even more than most people thought.
Buffett called Bitcoin rat poison squared, Schiller called it a financial bubble. We disagree. Bitcoin is perhaps the most important financial innovation ever. And it is one step closer to "ideal money".| 09-11-18 | | More
To future proof portfolios, you need human skill and judgment to distinguish between the purely random and real investment insights. This is the power of combining machines and humans.| 0.50 CE | 22-08-18 | | More
Two recent papers looking at hedge funds provide further evidence that the more proactive managers are the best performers.
The future is, by definition, uncertain, as are financial markets. To prosper in such an environment, we need to be emotionally agile in order to align our values and actions and, in turn, help investors achieve their financial goals.
It wouldn't be surprising if the 10-year T-bill rises to 5% or more in the next few years, taking real yields back to over 2%, and causing the P/E ratio for US equities to return to its historical benchmark.
Research shows that owner-manager businesses reward their long-term (non-family) investors because they instill a stability, a culture, and a focus that is geared towards the long term.
Ex-CIA Acting Director and economist, Morell worked with six US Presidents. He explains the current geopolitical inflection point that will affect the world economy for a very long time.