India is poised to become the world's most important country in the medium term. Yet the model that has driven India's growth now threatens to constrain it.
Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2023 they most strongly agreed with and why, including identifying "silver linings" (investment opportunities not yet fully priced into the market) and which they disagreed with most and why - and the portfolio construction implications of both.
There was plenty of food for thought and grist for the investment portfolio mill, coming out of the recent Markets Summit 2023 "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!".
Classical economists often incorporated human behaviour into their thinking. But in the 1960s and 1970s, homo economicus - the great rational agent of economic theory - was born. It was not until the 1990s that the link between human behaviour and economics began to be re-established. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the evolution of economic thinking, concluding that, with the link between human behaviour and economics being re-established, economics has come full circle.
The financial services industry has done the impossible and made money boring, opaque and difficult to understand. If we better understand the psychology of money, we can better help our clients.
America, China, and Russia are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.
As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.
This Spotlight highlights that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors' portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk. Read the abridged report.
The theory of cognitive dissonance was proposed in the 1930s by psychologist Leon Festinger. Understanding how cognitive dissonance can bias our investment decision making, and recognising when our behaviour is being driven by it, is vital.
Hindsight can be a valuable source of learning. However, hindsight is undermined by a range of factors and hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life - including investing.
Many who attended this year's World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile this optimism economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
The concept of "transitory inflation" is making a comeback. Looking ahead to the rest of the year and early 2024, three inflation scenarios stand out for me.
Uncertainty and change are unavoidable realities of life. In the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty, I offer you this year's global developments to watch over the next five years.
Brace for more market volatility in 2023, and orient portfolios to resilient fixed income and equity securities, and hedge fund and infrastructure managers.
Nine months ago, we were told that the world would be in recession today. This did not quite happen. Now we are assured that 2023 will see a global recession, even in the US.
In stage two of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, three economists describe and debate three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.
Just as the use of nuclear weapons promises "mutual assured destruction", lack of economic cooperation will lead to "mutual assured deflation" because no single country can revive global demand.
FTX may be the biggest scandal in crypto so far. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of crypto itself have been much exaggerated.
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. For the first time in decades, an inflationary gale is rattling financial markets. Many post-GFC tailwinds have gone into reverse. This once-in-a-career regime shift poses many challenges for portfolio construction practitioners. The high VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) market environment continues! Yet, opportunities abound for who reorientate portfolios accordingly. Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining! Markets Summit 2023 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.