Beware Quantitative Tightening!

Quantitative Tightening is jangling the nerves of investors around the world. It's unprecedented and so no-one knows for sure exactly how it will play out. But all the evidence points to QT being a non-event.

Tim Farrelly 1 commentMore

Can the Euro be saved?

The euro was supposed to bring shared prosperity, which would enhance solidarity and advance the goal of European integration. In fact, it has done just the opposite, slowing growth and sowing discord.

Joseph Stiglitz More

Research Review: Biases in recommendations

Two recent academic papers focus on how advice provided to investors might be distorted. The first relates to the disposition effect; the second looks at the impact compensation on advice given.

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

Italy, tariffs are sideshows – the US is the main story

With US unemployment running at just 3.8% (equal lowest rate since 1969), the Fed will have to hike rates four times this year, with the risk that bond yields go not just to 3.5% but somewhere well north.

Brett Gillespie More

Netflix will be the next dominant digital business

Over-the-top streaming will become the dominant form of media consumption, and Netflix will be the dominant global provider. Near-term valuation multiples may ultimately prove cheap.

Nick Griffin More

The old allure of new money

There are now nearly 2,000 cryptocurrencies, and millions of people worldwide are excited by them. As with past monetary innovations, a compelling story may not be enough.

Robert J. Shiller More

Will longevity products now become attractive?

New means test rules for pooled lifetime income products, together with development of CIPRs, have the potential to radically alter Australians' views on retirement income products.

David Knox More

Successful practitioners are caring practitioners

“Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care,” cautioned Theodore Roosevelt. This is especially true when risk is involved.

Herman Brodie0.25 CE More

Cash is the alternative asset class

Many asset classes - such as real estate and infrastructure - face the same valuation headwinds as equities and bonds. Practitioners should consider using cash as the diversifier for multi-asset portfolios.

Sonja Laud More

Markets creak as yields creep higher

Calm returned to global stock markets in May. But investors should not be lulled into a false sense of security. Equities and bonds face considerable headwinds as the Fed continues to tighten.

Brett Gillespie More

Robo-advisors are NOT the future (but technology is)

While robo-advisors have been the big buzz as replacement humans, they’re not (and data proves it). Technology alone is not enough (otherwise everyone with a FitBit on their wrist would be healthy).

Michael Kitces0.50 CE More

Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?

It is generally accepted that stock markets provide long-term outperformance over cash. However, a recent academic research paper reveals this is not the case for the majority of stocks since 1926.

Nick Griffin, Munro Partners1.00 CE More

Research Review: More on momentum investing

Eugene Fama described momentum investing as the one remaining market anomaly. A recent paper gives an explanation for it. Another shows it still offers high profits after implementation costs.

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

The difference for advice in retirement

Many baby boomers are retiring with decent super balances and need advice on spending their retirement savings appropriately. Consuming capital for a higher standard of living is, after all, what super is for!

Aaron Minney More

Donald Trump's Normal Fed

In a presidency that has shown little regard for conventional institutional norms, how can one explain Donald Trump's completely reasonable appointments to the Federal Reserve Board?

Kenneth Rogoff More

The true impact of a trade war

President Trump's protectionist threats have raised the risks of a serious trade war, the first in over 80 years. It is assumed that this would materially impact US growth - but is that the case?

Woody Brock More

Is realism trumping populism?

Around the world, populist economic policy seems to be in retreat. Even in Britain, a majority support a “meaningful vote” on whether the final deal with Europe is genuinely better than staying in the EU.

Anatole Kaletsky 3 commentsMore

Bill Phillips - the Man, the Myth, the Curve

The consensus view is that the Phillips Curve is dead. To understand it, you must understand the history of the model and the Kiwi who first researched the link between unemployment and wages.

Payden & Rygel More

Forum Fodder 15 June 2018

This week in Forum Fodder: Robert Shiller – allure of new money; David Knox - longevity products; Herman Brodie - caring practitioners; Sonja Laud - cash the alternative asset class; Brett Gillespie - markets creak as yields creep higher.

Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum More

Mark your diary

2018
17 Jul - Research Roundtable (Syd)
18 Jul - Research Roundtable (Mel)
22-23 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
9-12 Sep - CIMA IMAC (Syd)
20-21 Sep - IMR Conference (Syd)
13-20 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)
27 Nov - Research Roundtable (Syd)
28 Nov - Research Roundtable (Mel)
2019
19 Feb - Markets Summit (Syd)
20 Feb - Finology Summit (Syd)
14 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Mel)
19 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Bne)
21 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
17-20 Mar - CIMA IMAC (Syd)
9 Apr - Research Roundtable (Syd)
10 Apr - Research Roundtable (Mel)
11 Apr - IMR Workshop (Syd)

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2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

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2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).

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2016 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.

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Backgrounder: Cyclical? Structural? Secular?

This Backgrounder defines the terms "cyclical", "structural"" and "secular" and provides examples, in order to increase the clarity of debate about what's really driving markets.

PortfolioConstruction Forum More

2016 Conference - Webcast

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

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Conference 2015: the director’s cut

PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.

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Backgrounder: The long and short of it

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

PortfolioConstruction Forum More