For most of the past decade, the growing spending power of China’s expanding middle class has fueled the global economy. Not so anymore.
Yes, it’s possible that we enter a recession in the not too distant future. But the best curve to forecast recessions still has a positive slope.
Machine learning algorithms are no match for the human brain when it comes to deciding how investment portfolios should be constructed.
As disruption transforms global economies, and markets become ever more efficient, effectively integrating material ESG factors will help build robust and resilient portfolios.
Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.
Cyclical volatility in earnings has increased dramatically since the 1980s. The recent Apple profit warning is an excellent case in point.
We see three scenarios for 2019 - is it a benign outlook like 2016? A bubble bursting like 2000? Or will inflation accelerate?
In the cyber world today, we are somewhere around World War I. There are more than 30 nations with effective cyber forces. Practitioners need to understand the threat cyber weapons pose to markets and investments.
Australian investors have a different perspective on foreign currency to investors elsewhere in the world, and this should be reflected in how local portfolios are built.
If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a plan or inadequate capacity. The problem is that the team is not playing cohesively, and the top players are struggling individually.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) invests heavily in high technology research. While the world will certainly benefit from the PRC's technological ambition, it also has challenging implications.
To future-proof portfolios, investors looking to maximise returns should regard risk simply as the risk of losing money and in turn, best manage this risk by taking a long-term time horizon.
A recent research paper looks at the impact of "The Donald" on markets, while a second examines the impact of robo-advice on investor behaviour.| 1.00 CE | 19-12-18 | | More
This paper studies the long-term returns of US equities to determine whether earnings yield is a reasonably reliable estimate of forward real returns. Understanding the interplay of growth, value and yield provides a framework for assessing investments.
An inflation target of a few percentage points may seem to promote stability - but we need to consider that it may have the opposite effect on the stability of our judgments.
This view has dominated finance theory for the last 50 years or so. But prices change because people trade, and those trades leave behind a trace of all the behavioural biases people bring.