Much of current economic and markets thinking is rooted in the post-GFC era. Practitioners need to let go of that history and embrace the fact that four trends are fundamentally changing the long-term outlook for markets.
What a difference a year makes. In February 2023, investors were preoccupied by the risks of rising inflation, monetary tightening and recession. This year, the focus is on disinflation, monetary easing and economic growth.
Contrary to wide opinion, globalisation is not "history" but is being reinvented. For investors, a less interconnected world has significant implications for corporate capital expenditure and country allocation.
It's in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year's set of global developments to watch over the next five years.
Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts (including me) expected the US and global economy would suffer a recession. But the opposite mostly happened. One must approach any 2024 forecast with humility.
I was amazed several years ago to learn that the class I was teching believed that 90% of a fund's returns are due to asset allocation. Having once been a major promoter of this myth, it is important I contribute to its eradication.
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the psychology of attention and its relationship to key economic concepts (utility, risk-taking, social preferences, and learning), and the emerging role of AI in the modern economy.
This report summarises the key observations from ASIC's review of how issuers of investment products are meeting design and distribution obligations and areas for improvement.
The primary criticism directed at those who think about the future is that it's an act of futility. But thinking about how the future may unfold has proven to be a useful way to make decisions amidst radical uncertainty.
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
At this year's FAAA Congress, we asked an expert panel about the implications of a VUCA investment climate for the construction of multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios and for investment conversations with clients.
The fact that structural changes do exist and that historical data are often of limited relevance presents a major opportunity for investors seeking to outperform others.
In the wake of the most rapid and material rise in global interest rates for 50 years, we could be forgiven for scratching our heads at what has happened over 2023. Has monetary policy lost its mojo? Or has 2023 been a "head fake"?
Small Caps have underperformed large cap peers in recent times however cyclical factors today and a rebound in domestic risk sets up for the reemergence in Australian Smalls.
This paper provides a penetrating view into some of the motivational dynamics in play for individual investors who select sustainability-related investments, and implications for financial intermediaries who manufacture and sell such products.
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.