The myth of secular stagnation

There are many lessons to be learned as we reflect on the 2008 crisis, but the most important is that the challenge was – and remains – political, not economic. Secular stagnation was just an excuse for flawed economic policies.

Joseph Stiglitz 2 commentsMore

Find me some uncorrelated assets!

In the 1950s, Markowitz showed that low or negative correlation is the secret sauce that makes diversification work. While his maths stacks up, the way it is often abused, does not.

Tim Farrelly 6 commentsMore

Today’s flattening yield curve: what does it imply?

The fallacy that an inverted yield curve "predicts" the onset of recessions is alive and well. Many investors believe the curve will invert in 2019, precipitating a recession. But a flattening of the yield curve need not imply a recession.

Woody Brock More

Future proofed portfolios need growth equities

Investors should learn the lessons of history. Looking beyond near-term valuation multiples can help identify the next great winners and also help avoid the losers. Without growth investing, a portfolio is only focusing on only one side of the equation.

Nick Griffin0.50 CE More

The makings of a 2020 recession and financial crisis

As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the GFC. By 2020, conditions will be ripe for a new financial crisis.

Nouriel Roubini More

Why we get it wrong - culture not companies dictate trends

Investors need to entirely rethink their processes, assumptions and research approach, to focus on the cultures of consumers in different markets. Only by thinking like new brands themselves, can investors identify and invest in the next powerful emerging trend.

Tassos Stassopoulos0.50 CE More

The Forum releases its submission to the FASEA CPD proposal

Portfolio Construction Forum's 23-page submission to FASEA in response to its proposed guidance on future CPD explains why the proposal is fundamentally flawed, and falls well short of any reasonable community expectation of FASEA and what drove its formation.

Graham Rich 1 commentMore

Research Review: Small portfolios are beautiful

Markowitz informed us of the risk-reduction advantages of diversification. But just how diversified does an investor have to be to realise almost all of the benefits of diversification?

Ron Bird1.00 CE More

Bonds are no longer a reliable risk diversifier

Simply holding bonds no longer diversifies an investment portfolio, with genuine risk diversification better achieved by exploiting currently under-priced risk premia in volatility and inflation markets.

Gopi Karunakaran0.25 CE More

FASEA proposals fail to address the P and D of CPD

FASEA's proposed CPD standards will fail to lift the educational standards required of an emerging profession, as they only address the 'Continuing' aspect of CPD, and ignore the crucial 'Professional' and 'Development' elements.

Graham Rich More

Investment crystal balls broken or imperfect

Investors have long relied on two crystal balls when predicting future returns: equity risk premium and the yield curve. Crystal balls have their place, so long as they are combined with an uncommon degree of common sense.

Amin Rajan More

Future-proof portfolios are entirely achievable

Future-proofing isn’t about guaranteeing an outcome. No strategy can do that. It's about implementing strategies today that increase the likelihood that multiple objectives, often with different time horizons, can be all achieved.

Rudi Minbatiwala More

A future proof portfolio should guard against pessimism

There will always be movements in markets that we need to be attentive to, and you should construct a portfolio that takes advantage of fear. But don't let that fear drive the dominating principles in your portfolio construction.

Tony Crescenzi More

Electric vehicles are not game changing

Consensus appears to assume that electric vehicle adoption rates will increase dramatically. This view is misplaced. The impact on the oil price and equity market leadership is not something that investors are positioned for.

Stephen Anness0.25 CE More

QE turns 10

November 2018 will mark the tenth anniversary of quantitative easing - undoubtedly the boldest policy experiment in central banking modern history. There are five key lessons learned from QE.

Stephen Roach More

Forum Fodder 21 September 2018

This week in Forum Fodder: Professor Joseph Stiglitz - The myth of secular stagnation: Tim Farrelly - Find me some uncorrelated assets!; Woody Brock - Today's flattening yield curve, what does it imply?; Nick Griffin - Future proofed portfolios need growth equities...

Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum More

Mark your diary

*** 2018 ***
22-23 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
09-12 Sep - IMAC (Syd)
20-21 Sep - IMR Conference (Syd)
13-20 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)
27 Nov - Research Roundtable (Syd)
28 Nov - Research Roundtable (Mel)

*** 2019 ***
19 Feb - Markets Summit (Syd)
20 Feb - Finology Summit (Syd)
12 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Mel)
13 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Bne)
26 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
17-20 Mar - IMAC (Syd)
02 Apr - Research Roundtable (Syd)
03 Apr - Research Roundtable (Mel)
16 Apr - IMR Workshop (Syd)
16 May - Masterclass NZ Dinner (Akl)
17 May - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
23 Jul - Research Roundtable (Syd)
24 Jul - Research Roundtable (Mel)
21-22 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
08-11 Sep - IMAC (Syd)
19-20 Sep - IMR Conference (Syd)
19-26 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)
26 Nov - Research Roundtable (Syd)
27 Nov - Research Roundtable (Mel)

*** 2020 ***
18 Feb - Markets Summit (Syd)
19 Feb - Finology Summit (Syd)
10 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Mel)
11 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Bne)
19 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
15-18 Mar - IMAC (Syd)
28 Apr - Research Roundtable (Syd)
29 Apr - Research Roundtable (Mel)
07 Apr - IMR Workshop (Syd)
21 May - Masterclass NZ Dinner (Akl)
22 May - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
21 Jul - Research Roundtable (Syd)
22 Jul - Research Roundtable (Mel)
19-20 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
06-09 Sep - IMAC (Syd)
17-18 Sep - IMR Conference (Syd)
17-24 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)
24 Nov - Research Roundtable (Syd)
25 Nov - Research Roundtable (Mel)

More