Many in the financial markets are expecting a V-shaped recovery starting in the fourth quarter of this year, possibly even in the third quarter. Robert Huebscher speaks with renowned economist, Dr Woody Brock about why Woody disagrees, and instead foresees a slow and uneven recovery with periodic slumps.
A year ago, I showed it's possible to measure prediction accuracy for active managers, and that it influences optimal portfolio construction. Is this still a valid approach to portfolio construction, given today's markets?
For active fund managers, the coronavirus pandemic is unlike any other crisis in modern times. In this podcast, Jonathan Ramsay of InvestSense speaks with emerging market equities portfolio manager, Tassos Stassopoulos, about the impact of values on responses to COVID-19 around the world, and the art of contrarian stock picking and managing client monies in these challenging times.
Coronavirus has put an end to the longest post-war US expansion, and is all but certain to cause a recession that will be wholly different from any other in economic history. In this podcast, Robert Huebscher speaks with renowned economist, Dr Woody Brock, about how and why.
Joe Biden had a fantastic night on Super Tuesday and he could be the Democratic Nominee - but a lot can change over the next month. Meanwhile, trade relations between the US and China may falter if China struggles to honor its commitments due to a weak economy.
Most of us want to act on our values, but we also need to feel that we have a reasonable chance of doing so effectively and successfully. Rather than focus on ethical analysis, focus on ethical implementation.
Refocusing sustainable investing efforts onto client values and beliefs starts a chain reaction that delivers sustainable outcomes for clients and long-lasting relationships.
New research shows that media sources generate emotions that transmit to individuals and so influence their investment decisions, resulting in a departure from so-called efficient markets.
By identifying their own systematic patterns of departure from "rational" behaviour, practitioners can compensate for their effects, and improve the quality of their day-to-day investment decision-making.
Over shorter periods of time, there are market inefficiencies due to well researched behavioural biases. Knowledge of these can help improve our own investment decision making and that of our clients.
Several of our Faculty discuss their key takeouts from Finology Summit 2020, to help delegates think through how people's different investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact investment outcomes.
Using the language of client values and behaviour will help build a foundation of trust, and assist investment advisers architect a portfolio that is in sync with clients' lives and values.
A fixed point of reference, in the context of investment risks and uncertainties, can induce biases in approaches to meet client objectives. These biases will be costly to investors in the long term.
As we scramble to make sense of occurrences such as coronavirus and climate change, the application of prior cultivated imagination can preserve the integrity of investment decision making.
Markets Summit 2020 facilitated debate on the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) - with particular emphasis on being alert to the high VUCA risks and opportunities ahead - to aid your search for return, and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
In the decade ahead, ageing demographics, income inequality, market share concentration and climate change will reshape the economy, elevating the VUCA facing investors, requiring deep fundamental research to determine where best to invest.
Market capitalism has survived many rotations of the political cycle over generations. But there is nothing certain or given about capitalism – and today, its future is being called into question, with growing calls to fundamentally change the system.
US/China trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak highlight that a VUCA world abounds. But this does not change long-term trends that make emerging markets ripe for investment.
VUCA issues are going to increasingly drive market outcomes. Mapping out different scenarios is a must to check your biases as well as challenge your own, others' and consensus views, and generate investment ideas that help manage VUCA and target the right opportunities.
As growth becomes more scarce in developed markets, the valuation gap between emerging market equities and developed market equities will close. Within EM, Asia is the place to be investing.
The current VUCA environment creates opportunities for investors to increase diversification and income in their diversified portfolios, using carefully selected, higher yielding parts of the credit market.
As the old certainties break down, the response from policy makers has been to stimulate economies. The liquidity provided is particularly evident in longer dated growth assets. In the context of the Australian market, Australian mid caps is the sweet spot.
The world has checked into Hotel California – interest rates are failing to stimulate demand and monetary policy is less effective. Successful adaptation will require a re-think of traditional strategic asset allocation approaches.
Trade Wars, the US Election, Brexit 3.0, natural disasters and pandemic risks are causing fear and uncertainty in Australian equity investors. The key to capturing opportunities is to focus on what matters to long-term returns.
High household debt places Australia in a fragile position for further disinflation, implying that bond yields will remain lower for longer. Investors should look to accumulate bonds and ensure portfolios have an appropriate defensive allocation in anticipation of the next downturn.
Markets require constant accommodation to deliver status quo economic (not market) outcomes. Watch for changes in liquidity provision as forward markers of performance.
Corporate bond spreads are now tighter than they were before the GFC, yet corporate leverage is higher. Buy financials, sell corporates.
Emerging market assets and the Australian dollar present as having the greatest upside risk through the remainder of 2020-21.
To fully appreciate the risks and opportunities in a high VUCA environment, portfolio construction practitioners must adopt a mindful approach in order to adapt to unexpected events.
Venture capital is evolving globally to deliver both financial outcomes and also significant and measurable social impact for investors, entrepreneurs and communities.
The US-China trade deal was supposed to settle global trade uncertainty in 2020. Nothing could be further from the truth. Diversified supply chains are vital to minimising VUCA risks into the 2020s.