1. Research Roundtable - Resources Kit

    Research Roundtable helps identify quality investment solutions and their place in portfolios. This Resources Kit enables participants from the various Research Roundtable meetings to access the Strategy Reports that result from each meeting.

    19-09-17 | More
  2. The ASX200 is too concentrated - reduce weights!

    Simply observing the concentration inherent in the index and reducing Australian Equity weights is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.

    Tim Farrelly | 18-09-17 | More
  3. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.

    11-09-17 | More
  4. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    11-09-17 | More
  5. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    11-09-17 | More
  6. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    11-09-17 | More
  7. The trend that is ruining finance research

    The "anomalies" literature is the scientific foundation for quantitative asset management. But as three recent papers point out, "p-hacking" is only the beginning of anomalies research problems.

    Michael Edesess | 07-09-17 | 2 comments | More
  8. America and China's codependency trap

    US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.

    Stephen Roach | 05-09-17 | More
  9. The truth about the IT Revolution

    Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.

    Woody Brock | 04-09-17 | 1 comment | More
  10. Magellan's "monster" listed trust - masterstroke or misfire?

    Magellan is innovating again, this time raising money for what's been called a "monster" closed-end listed investment trust (LIT) with features that dramatically raise the bar for the standard model of closed end listed investment vehicles.

    Dominic McCormick | 01-09-17 | 2 comments | More
  11. The persistence of global imbalances

    The US has run chronic current-account deficits for almost two generations. Pointing the finger at surplus countries is getting old.

    Carmen M. Reinhart, Harvard University | 31-08-17 | More
  12. Beating the world’s best investors

    Where can practitioners take on the world’s best investors and win? Actually, in quite a lot of places.

    Tim Farrelly | 28-08-17 | More
  13. Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns

    To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.

    Paul Moore | 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  14. There are better alternatives to time-based rebalancing

    Time-based rebalancing is inefficient. Research suggests that tolerance band rebalancing strategies minimise trading and boost portfolio returns. Such threshold approaches may be used in both the portfolio accumulation and decumulation phase, and act as a pre-commitment device for clients.

    Michael Kitces | 24-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  15. Retirement spending and biological age

    There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that chronological (C) age is dominated by biological (B) age as a better proxy for longevity risk. Practitioners must consider both ages when building portfolios and structuring retirement spending strategies.

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 23-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  16. Backgrounder: Portfolio rebalancing strategies

    Researchers propose a range of improvements to traditional time-based rebalancing, including threshold and cash flow strategies, designed to increase effectiveness and efficiency.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 21-08-17 | 2 comments | More
  17. Backgrounder: The rise of impact investing

    As some institutional investors build internal impact investing capabilities, the inclusion of impact investments in portfolios may be on the cusp of becoming mainstream.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 21-08-17 | More
  18. Investors should hedge their overall financial risk

    People often consider risks in isolation, and overpay for protection as a result. Rather than hedging against specific risks, investors should think like a game theorist.

    Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley | 21-08-17 | More
  19. Backgrounder: Culture and investment performance

    The relationship between organisational culture and relative performance has significant implications for active asset managers, given their dependence on effective collaboration and decision making.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 21-08-17 | More
  20. 2011 Conference: CIF - Modern portfolio construction (Michael Kitces)

    Portfolio construction practitioners have traditionally split into two camps - passive indexers, or active investors aiming to either pick winning companies or fund managers who can identify such companies. In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 Conference, US-based researcher Michael Kitces provided a new and robust framework to understand the opportunities for value creation in portfolios...

    Michael Kitces | 20-08-17 | More
  21. Revealing a client's true preferences

    Game theory, econometrics and distributed computing power can reveal a client's true preferences for risk, loss, uncertainty, time and goals – with scientific precision and in terms that clients can understand.

    Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley | 20-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  22. It all adds up... well, sometimes it doesn't

    Do you know the impacts of the risk characteristics of your multi-manager portfolio? Better portfolio construction occurs when you don't diversify the risk you are trying to capture. Beware the benchmark hugger - it might be you?

    Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 19-08-17 | More
  23. The value of investing in a diversified pool of fat left tailed strategies

    Investors often shy from investing in “non-traditional” sources of Risk Premia, but to maximise the probability of achieving positive excess returns, a well-diversified and risk-controlled mix of Risk Premium strategies is essential.

    Capital Fund Management | 18-08-17 | More
  24. Shifting global trade patterns bring new opportunities

    Shifts in economic and trade regimes and turning points in markets provide asset managers the opportunity to capitalise on short-term distortions in asset prices and to invest in companies that could be winners in the long term.

    Rob Lovelace & David Polak, Capital Group | 18-08-17 | More
  25. Using alternative investments to address pre- and post-retirement issues

    This paper explores the issues and challenges associated with longevity and sequencing risk, especially in the current market environment, and examines how alternative investments offer investors potential solutions for these risks.

    Walter Davis & Ashley O'Connor, Invesco | 18-08-17 | More
  26. E + S + G factors are fundamental to better portfolio outcomes

    Ensuring your investment process incorporates sustainability factors - climate change, global food shortages, water shortages, and poverty, as well as safety, management and governance scandals - adds up to better outcomes.

    Amanda McCluskey, Stewart Investors | 18-08-17 | More
  27. Challenging assumptions

    Two assumptions are under challenge - that the past offers a reliable guide to the future in terms of asset class returns; and, that traditional relative risk/return approaches can still deliver the returns investors need.

    Warryn Robertson, Lazard Asset Management Pacific Co. | 18-08-17 | More
  28. Creativity and predictability are key for alpha generation

    The outcome of selecting an active management strategy will likely be greater when both the creativity and predictability of the candidate are considered in equal measure.

    William Low, Nikko Asset Management | 18-08-17 | More
  29. Asset managers need to build better factors

    Factor indices are a smart way to capture equity market beta. However, investors use factors in pursuit of broader aims.

    Gideon Smith, AXA IM Rosenberg Equities | 17-08-17 | More
  30. Active funds will win out in bond markets

    Fund flows suggest that, in aggregate, passive managers are winning the battle against their active peers. But active bond managers have a demonstrable track record of outperformance.

    Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO | 17-08-17 | More
  31. Fed balance sheet fears are much ado about nothing

    With US unemployment at a 15-year low, the US Federal Reserve has greater scope to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Investors should set aside their fears, and remember that the Fed’s balance sheet provides little indication about what will happen to longer term interest rates.

    Payden & Rygel | 17-08-17 | More
  32. Research Review: Financial ruin and biological age

    Two recent research studies shed light on retirement income planning. The first proposes a two-step framework that avoids the pitfalls of shortfall probabilities. The second finds that people need to use both their biological age and chronological age to decide spending rates.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 15-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  33. Culture and sustainable alpha generation - six key factors

    Culture is at the heart of competitive advantage today; this is particularly the case for investment firms where people and their judgments are the chief assets. A strong culture in investment management firms is a requirement for sustainable alpha-generation.

    Carol Geremia, MFS Investment Management | 14-08-17 | More
  34. The four stages of investment analysis

    Using a Stage 4 investment analysis framework is a strong move towards a deeper understanding of portfolio risk drivers, and ensuring portfolios better reflect your investment philosophy.

    Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 11-08-17 | 2 comments | More
  35. A sector that cannot be ignored

    Having grown strongly over the last 20 years, a new study shows infrastructure investment will continue over the next two decades. It is a secular trend with long-term opportunities.

    RARE Infrastructure | 11-08-17 | More
  36. Rampant confusion - monetary policy, yield curve, bond yields

    The growing belief that the US has entered an era of permanently low economic growth, due in large measure to an alleged 50% reduction in productivity growth, is wrong. Both real growth and productivity growth have been strong, not weak.

    Woody Brock | 10-08-17 | More
  37. Active v Passive – why can't we be friends?

    When it comes to the active versus passive investment debate, many investors believe the answer is black or white. But the issue is deeper than that.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 09-08-17 | More
  38. Choosing discount rates for retirement planning strategies

    While the use of a discount rate to compare strategies or choices that are dispersed or occur over time is useful, the proper discount rate is the investor's expected rate of return, means that the "right" discount rate will vary from one person to the next.

    Michael Kitces | 08-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  39. A dim outlook for Trumponomics

    After six months, we can more confidently assess the prospects for the US economy under Trump's administration. Like his presidency, paradoxes abound.

    Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | 07-08-17 | More
  40. 2011 Conference: DDF - A scenarios approach to asset allocation (Susan Gosling)

    This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, proposes an asset allocation approach that makes more complete use of information available about the future, forcing consideration of different time frames, alternate outcomes, and tail risk...

    MLC | 01-08-17 | More
  41. The quandary on inflation

    Recently, Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed dismay that inflation has remained persistently below the Fed's target of 2%. Will low inflation derail the Fed's exit strategy?

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 27-07-17 | More
  42. Deciphering China's economic resilience

    Forecasters find it difficult to resist superimposing the outcomes in major crisis-battered developed economies on China. It has been the wrong approach in the past; it is wrong again today.

    Stephen Roach | 26-07-17 | 2 comments | More
  43. ASIC on hybrids

    The head of ASIC says that hybrids are a ridiculous investment for retail investors. Are they? Yes and no.

    Tim Farrelly | 25-07-17 | 5 comments | More
  44. Research review: Anomalies and irrationality

    Two new studies provide widespread evidence of mispricings/irrationalities across world equity markets. One in particular provides valuable insight into managing risk in equity investing.

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 24-07-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  45. A Guide to forming an Investment Policy Framework

    This Guide aims to assist practitioners develop their investment policy framework, by providing a checklist of issues to consider, and publicly available examples from institutions in Australia and globally.

    Andrew Fairweather & Jerome Lander | 21-07-17 | More
  46. A "Macroneconomic" Revolution?

    Next month will mark the tenth anniversary of the GFC. Why have so few of the policies that might have ameliorated economic conditions and alleviated public resentment been implemented since?

    Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal | 19-07-17 | More
  47. Achieve client goals with minimum discomfort

    Observing how a client makes financial trade-offs can provide a more accurate measure of their risk preferences than if we ask questions about what they think they would do.

    Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley | 18-07-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  48. The G20's misguided globalism

    This year's G20 summit in Hamburg promises to be among the more interesting in recent years. The knee-jerk globalism that suffuses G20 meetings feeds into the populists' narrative.

    Dani Rodrik, Harvard University | 06-07-17 | 1 comment | More
  49. Cycles in a low growth world

    In a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate and low yield environment, a cyclical economic upturn presents opportunities in asset classes such as equities and real estate

    Andrew Milligan, Standard Life Investments | 05-07-17 | More
  50. What do we know about investor irrationality?

    It's become conventional wisdom that under-performance is due to the irrational investment behavior of individuals. It's time to question whether conventional wisdom has even a scintilla of meaning.

    Michael Edesess | 04-07-17 | More
  51. Policy rules versus discretion

    Discretion in setting monetary policy has had a checkered history. Ironically, the debate on rules vs discretion is heating up just as the FOMC sets a course for unwinding its extraordinary policy measures.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 03-07-17 | More
  52. Buying happiness and satisfaction with greater cash reserves

    The classic view of cash when investing is that it's something to minimise. But a recent study found that we're just not content without a healthy allocation to cash. In fact, pushing investors to put all their cash to work increases their financial stress.

    Michael Kitces | 29-06-17 | More
  53. Another lesson from Japan

    We ignore history at great peril. The latest disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks is really not a surprise after all.

    Stephen Roach | 28-06-17 | More
  54. Politics and stock returns

    Analysis of 5 international stock markets shows no correlation between stock returns and the political party in power.

    Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates | 27-06-17 | More
  55. Interest rates are artificially low?

    Yes, rates are unusually low. But to describe that as unnatural shows a lack of understanding about how the world works and a refusal to accept that maybe the world has changed.

    Tim Farrelly | 26-06-17 | 11 comments | More
  56. Capping QE

    Fed officials must take the long view and hence tend to believe they can engineer a graceful exit. Their plan is somewhat akin to 'cap and trade' schemes for weaning the world of pollutants.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 09-06-17 | More
  57. Daring to be different - the benefits of contrarian investing

    Literature from a variety of disciplines help highlight the qualities behind truly creative, contrarian thinking - qualities which can be applied to modern portfolio management.

    Stephen Anness & Andy Hall, Invesco Perpetual | 07-06-17 | More
  58. The global recovery's downside risks

    In the next year, a more robust and persistent global recovery will depend largely on whether policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.

    Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | 05-06-17 | More
  59. Research review: Quality and momentum investing

    Unlike other commonly used factors, very little research has been undertaken on the quality factor - which makes a newly released paper very interesting. Another new paper extends the usual momentum factor into "returns signal momentum".

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 05-06-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  60. Buy Low, Sell High. It sounds simple but clients need a framework

    Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.

    Douglas Isles | 01-06-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  61. Siegel v Shiller on equity valuations

    Wharton's Jeremy Siegel and Yale's Robert Shiller squared off in a recent presentation about the outlook for equity returns.

    Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | 31-05-17 | More
  62. Beware expensive factors

    Investors should keep a close eye on relative valuations. Recent data suggests that momentum and value are trading cheaply in many markets, with low beta substantially over-priced.

    Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates | 30-05-17 | More
  63. The upside of less downside

    When equity markets fall, the financial and emotional impacts can be lasting. By focusing on reducing downside, investors can have a smoother ride and still achieve the returns they seek.

    Roy Maslen & Hamish Fitzsimons, AB Global | 30-05-17 | More
  64. The Hunger Bonds

    Investing often creates moral dilemmas over goals. Should decent people put their money in emerging-market bond funds?

    Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard Kennedy School | 29-05-17 | More
  65. What ratings agencies are really good at

    After the ratings failures of CDOs and other complex instruments in the GFC, many dismiss the work of the ratings agencies. But far from being hopeless, they do a wonderful job of assessing companies.

    Tim Farrelly | 26-05-17 | 1 comment | More
  66. Rethinking the Next China

    China is upping the ante on its connection to an increasingly integrated world, running against the grain of the populist anti-globalisation backlash that is brewing in many developed countries.

    Stephen Roach | 25-05-17 | More
  67. The worry about indexing is overblown

    The number of indexes has exploded and now exceeds the number of stocks in the US. But overall, the US stock market is still dominated by active management. And 96% of index products are of insignificant size.

    Urban Carmel, The Fat Pitch | 24-05-17 | More
  68. The dramatic decline of risk - part 3 - Financial market risks

    Overall stock market risk has declined modestly in the last 80 years, but the nature of risk has changed greatly. The risk stemming from market mistakes and, possibly, from irrationality has risen significantly.

    Woody Brock | 22-05-17 | More
  69. Three strategies to manage retirement income uncertainty

    The danger that sequence of return risk can devastate a retirement portfolio is both increasingly recognised and frequently misunderstood. Three research-driven strategies can help manage it.

    Michael Kitces | 22-05-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  70. A Trump slump?

    Trump's election triggered a global stock market upswing, on confidence that he would be able to fulfill his pledge to reignite US economic growth. But how much is Trump really likely to be able to get done?

    Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 18-05-17 | More
  71. The dramatic decline of risk - part 2 - geopolitical risk

    Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.

    Woody Brock | 17-05-17 | More
  72. Whistling past the geopolitical graveyard

    Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.

    Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | 15-05-17 | More
  73. Research Review: Factor investing

    Factor investing has its foundation in the empirical studies of EMH. Via ETFs, we now live in a world where the possibility of factor investing is available to almost everyone. Three recent papers are useful in exploring further.

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 15-05-17 | More
  74. The dramatic decline of risk - part 1

    In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.

    Woody Brock | 04-05-17 | More
  75. Impact investing in the context of a diversified portfolio

    This paper presents evidence to suggest that an allocation to impact investments can contribute potential portfolio benefits from the risk-return profile and low correlation with other asset classes.

    Tim Macready, CIMA® & Simba Marekera, Brightlight Impact Advisory | 03-05-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  76. Fed tightening past and present

    In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for too long. The current tightening cycle will not end any differently.

    Lacy Hunt & Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment Management | 02-05-17 | More
  77. On reflection: Forum retrospectives

    Each February, our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year. Here are the last five years...

    01-05-17 | More
  78. A world turned inside out

    The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by 2018, the developing countries will have a greater share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries (41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.

    Stephen Roach | 01-05-17 | More
  79. People know what to do. They just need to do it!

    Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.

    Joanne Earl, Flinders University | 01-05-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  80. Bonds are different - active v passive

    Opinions in the active-passive investment debate have drifted poles apart over recent years. This paper revisits this discussion finding that, unlike their stock counterparts, active bond mutual funds have largely outperformed their median passive peers over the sample period.

    Jamil Baz et al, PIMCO | 27-04-17 | More
  81. Macron’s mission

    The centrist Emmanuel Macron's success in the first round of the French presidential election is likely to re-energise Europe.

    Harold James, Princeton University  | 26-04-17 | More
  82. Decoding the latest Fed speak

    The Fed's talk of a symmetrical inflation goal played well to markets when they were in the throes of the reflation trade. Markets are now flipping to the conclusion that transparency amounts to dovish policy.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 20-04-17 | More
  83. Welcome to Trump Casino

    The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?

    Tim Farrelly | 11-04-17 | 11 comments | More
  84. Crouching Donald, Paper Tiger

    Trump is learning that he is hemmed in by the same constraints as Obama's administration. As with Obama, the agent of change is turning out to be an agent of continuity.

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 10-04-17 | More
  85. Issues in long-term investing - part 1

    Short-term thinking in finance is nothing new. The benefits of long-term investing extend beyond just being able to invest in illiquid assets. Patience can pay its own dividend.

    Keith Suter, Geoff Warren, Ian Patrick | 10-04-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  86. Research Review: Only in Scandinavia?

    Do professional investors do better when investing on their own behalf? What is the relationship between the remuneration of professional investors and performance? What role to gender and age play in the use of ETFs?

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 10-04-17 | More
  87. Brexit wheels start to turn

    On Wednesday, Theresa May triggered the mechanism for UK to leave the EU. But the UK's relationship with the EU has already changed, says UK MP Peter Lilley.

    Nathan Smith, National Business Review | 31-03-17 | More
  88. First-home buyers should be able to use their super

    Home ownership is of critical importance for retirees. But compulsory superannuation plays a major role in ensuring low-income earners never gain access to home ownership.

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 29-03-17 | 6 comments | More
  89. The temptations of a resilient China

    Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.

    Stephen Roach | 28-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  90. How will Brexit play out?

    As Britain embarks on the process of disentangling itself from the EU, the country will regain control over national law and policy making, raising opportunities to implement new models.

    Peter Lilley, MP | 28-03-17 | More
  91. A client's life is a mix of stocks & bonds

    It is time to properly account for risk characteristics of client’s most valuable asset - their human capital. This isn’t easy to implement and places practitioners in a difficult situation...

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 24-03-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  92. Behavioral biases & hierarchy of retirement needs

    Research suggests we mentally account for income and assets with an intrinsic hierarchy of priorities - a "hierarchy of retirement needs". So retirement income strategies should be reframed to answer three questions.

    Michael Kitces | 23-03-17 | More
  93. The myth of declining living standards

    Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.

    Woody Brock | 22-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  94. Ageing will reshape the global order

    Global ageing will have significant effects over the next few decades as it reduces the economic power and geopolitical influence of developed nations, in turn increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 22-03-17 | More
  95. What's a president to do?

    Trump promised a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes - but has quickly discovered that the US political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change. So what will an impatient president do?

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 20-03-17 | More
  96. Negative gearing is responsible for high property prices?

    A more realistic view of the world is that price appreciation drives negative gearing - not the other way around. Abolish negative gearing and nothing much happens.

    Tim Farrelly | 10-03-17 | 11 comments | More
  97. Pain Report - video presentations

    Jonathan Pain, Author of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at PortfolioConstruction Forum's professional development programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 08-03-17 | More
  98. Rethinking productivity growth

    In thinking about the future of growth, and the opportunities that continued growth will open up for all of humanity, we should reflect on how far we have come.

    J. Bradford DeLong, University of California | 06-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  99. Four fundamental portfolio construction decisions

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and delegates were asked to convert the insights into four fundamental portfolio construction decisions.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 06-03-17 | More
  100. The three Trumps

    What Donald Trump's rise to the US presidency portends requires unraveling three mysteries - because there are three versions of Trump.

    Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University | 02-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  101. Navigating normalisation

    History indicates a reasonably graceful exit from ultra-low interest rates is possible - and that investors can weather the storm with the right strategy. Let's sort out which risks are worth worrying about and which are not.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-03-17 | More
  102. The wrong side of maybe fallacy

    Monte Carlo analysis is commonly used to evaluate retirement spending plans - but our cognitive and behavioural biases may interfere with proper interpretation of the results.

    Michael Kitces | 28-02-17 | More
  103. Low interest rates matter. So do imputation credits

    A recent, widely circulated article suggested the major Australian banks are overpriced. But including the effect of imputation and a view on interest rates makes a huge difference...

    Tim Farrelly | 27-02-17 | More
  104. Finology Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Finology Summit 2017 focused on how "The winds of change" are affecting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better to relate with them. Here are our key takeouts.

    23-02-17 | More
  105. Economic growth and equity market returns

    This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and equity market returns. Much of the literature has focused on the US so this analysis includes Australia and the UK, too.

    Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 20-02-17 | 6 comments | More
  106. Markets Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios. Here are our key takeouts.

    17-02-17 | More
  107. Mindset/Skillset/Toolset - the trifecta for success

    The key to influencing investors is to have the right mindset, build the right skillset and apply the right toolset.

    Troy Hendrickson, Duke CE | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  108. Focus investors on goals with a retirement spending policy

    A formal, written spending policy can help investors focus on what's really important - will they meet their goals?

    Tim Farrelly | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  109. An investment philosophy is critical

    This workshop will help you develop a clear, communicable, logical and understandable investment philosophy, deciding what's important and what's not.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum and Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 15-02-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  110. Buy Low, Sell High sounds simple but clients need a framework

    Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.

    Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 2 comments | More
  111. The Advice Tipping Point is imminent - panel

    Our panel discusses the steady stream of disruption around the delivery of financial advice.

    Panel | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  112. Empathy is the essential skill to survive

    The key trait for relating to investors in the future will be the one skill that our brains are not programmed to receive from a computer - empathy.

    Michael Kitces | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  113. People know what to do to change their circumstances. They just need to do it!

    Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.

    Joanne Earl, Flinders University | 15-02-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  114. The winds of change and the 4IR

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  115. The Advice Tipping Point is imminent

    Regulatory tailwinds, fee pressure, unbridled experimentation around the delivery of advice - it's a steady stream of disruption. Ironically, technology is both our poison and antidote.

    Stig Nybo | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  116. The winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  117. Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  118. Stereotypes and noise obscure good decisions

    Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.

    Kerr Neilson, Platinum Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  119. Credit - the epicentre of the next crisis

    Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  120. Winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  121. Australian equities portfolios are vulnerable to inflation

    Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.

    Martin Conlon, Schroders | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 4 comments | More
  122. Turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  123. Now is the time to accumulate duration

    As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | More
  124. There are 4 fundamental decisions to make now for portfolios

    When positioning a multi-asset, portfolio for the medium-term, there are four fundamental decisions we must make now. They are, in some cases, interdependent.

    Tim Farrelly | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  125. Australian real estate is in for a soft landing

    A-REITs may face headwinds over the next two years, but total returns will likely remain positive, before returning to a more normal level of 8% to 10% per annum.

    Damien Barrack, Renaissance Asset Management | 14-02-17 | More
  126. The hunt for yield is over

    Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.

    Chris Watling, Longview Economics | 14-02-17 | 2 comments | More
  127. Winds of change are driving opportunities in Europe and Korea

    Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.

    Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  128. Caveat Emptor

    A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.

    Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  129. Rising rates, populism... but infrastructure remains reliable

    For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.

    Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  130. Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans

    Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".
    It's time to rotate into loans!

    Jeffrey Reemer, Invesco | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | More
  131. Australian government bonds can still provide positive returns

    There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  132. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air"

    The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  133. Panel: The winds of change

    Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.

    Panel | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  134. The Winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 4 comments | More
  135. We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error

    2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  136. Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your peril

    With Trump, Brexit, Italy's "No" and China's currency woes, the world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown. Investors should aim for capital preservation until the veil of uncertainty over future policies starts to lift.

    Joachim Fels, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  137. Au government bonds can still provide positive returns

    There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  138. Don't confuse winds of change with "hot air"

    The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  139. Populist discontent a danger for markets

    Governments must find a way to reconcile open markets with more evenly distributed income growth, or globalisation may reverse with dire implications for risk assets.

    Jeremy Lawson, Standard Life Investments | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  140. Winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  141. Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty

    2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.

    Stephen Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | More
  142. The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump

    There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  143. The winds of change

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  144. Why Trump can't bully China

    The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.

    Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | 13-02-17 | More
  145. Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction

    In 2002, we embarked on a quest to identify the secular forces which would substantially influence markets over the coming decade. We proposed five megatrends - which still drive portfolio construction today.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 13-02-17 | More
  146. Empathy is the essential skill to survive the Robo threat

    With the onward marching of computing power, our transition from being "knowledge workers" to "relationship workers" may be here sooner than we realise.

    Michael Kitces | 10-02-17 | 2 comments | More
  147. The 4th industrial revolution

    We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In the end, it all comes down to people and values.

    Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum | 10-02-17 | More
  148. 2017 key themes and risks

    The biggest event for global financial markets in 2017 is likely to have taken place on 20 January. How the Trump Presidency unfolds will clearly have a significant impact not just on the US but on global markets in 2017 and beyond.

    Stephen Halmarick et al, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 10-02-17 | More
  149. 2017 Global Outlook

    The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 10-02-17 | More
  150. Loss aversion, "FoMo", anxiety and mistiming

    Four common behavioural problems make the journey of investing particularly challenging for many investors. An understanding of each help investors stay the course and meet their goals.

    Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 10-02-17 | More
  151. Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts

    Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA? Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 02-02-17 | 2 comments | More
  152. Tighter monetary conditions

    The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-02-17 | More
  153. An unstable economic order?

    The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.

    Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | 31-01-17 | More
  154. A two-dimensional risk tolerance assessment process

    Beware using risk tolerance assessment tools that blend risk tolerance and risk capacity into a single result. The two need to be measured separately.

    Michael Kitces | 30-01-17 | 2 comments | More
  155. Watching the Donald show is fun, but...

    America is living through a kind of Trumpian Genesis - seven days of high-speed political creation. No one yet knows how all this will pan out.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 29-01-17 | More
  156. Does political analysis matter when investing?

    Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 28-01-17 | More
  157. What are senior secured loans and why invest in them?

    Senior secured loans offer a combination of strong current income with relatively low volatility given their defensive position in the capital structure and short duration.

    Invesco | 25-01-17 | More
  158. Misjudge China and Donald will never make America great again

    Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 22-01-17 | More
  159. Here's a true Trump nightmare for the liberals

    No doubt the liberal media will wage unrelenting war on Trump, as they did on Nixon nearly half a century ago. But this is not the 1970s.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 15-01-17 | More
  160. Finding the optimal portfolio rebalancing frequency

    How often should a portfolio be rebalanced? Rather than the conventional wisdom of rebalancing at fixed time intervals, a superior methodology is tolerance band rebalancing.

    Michael Kitces | 02-01-17 | 0.50 CE | 5 comments | More
  161. The failure to understand rebalancing

    We've been drilled that rebalancing in portfolios results in improved returns and/or reduced risk. But the benefits of rebalancing are far smaller than we’ve been led to believe.

    Michael Edesess | 02-01-17 | 4 comments | More
  162. Re-balancing usually reduces returns

    While rebalancing may be helpful as a risk management strategy, it may actually reduce long-term returns. But that isn't a reason to avoid it.

    Michael Kitces | 02-01-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More