The Forum team recently said a sad goodbye to our beloved sausage dog, Schnitzel von Krumm. He was well known to those who attended our live programs or visited our office over the past decade. The team has put together this montage of a few memories...

Given increasing longevity, it's important that retirees not ignore strategies that can generate long-term capital growth. In short, retirees need to re-examine the role of equities in their portfolio.

When it comes to returns, it's true that there is no free lunch - for one person to win, another loses. But with risk, diversification offers "free drinks", albeit that the bar where these are served evolves over time because correlation is not static.

I think of two winds of change. The first is a fundamental change in the direction of global monetary policy. The second is technology. For now, though, we really need to think about the first.

Prime Minister English could differentiate his government by focusing on housing affordability to transform the lives of millions of New Zealanders.

2016 was a bumper year for history. But actually, it's just history as normal, says historian Niall Ferguson. And neither the Trump election nor Brexit signals the end of globalisation.

Another major licensee has reportedly fallen for the hybrid scare campaigns, insisting bank hybrids securities be treated as equities. The premise is hopelessly flawed.

Mid this year, ASIC concluded its enquiry into allegations of wrongdoing and criminal behaviour at IOOF, related mainly to the research team and its then head. The real "scandal" turned out to be about reckless and biased elements of the media (and politicians).

Many worry that "the new normal" may be over, that the peak of the bond market has been reached, and so forth. We agree in part with this new view and offer some pointers to help navigate the bond market shoals ahead.

A growing body of research on the actual spending habits of retirees finds spending declines over time, implying retirees may not need to be saving as much to retire.

In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, Central Banks have taken a Mae West approach to monetary accommodation. If a little is good, and more is better, then too much is just right. What happens when it ends?

Growing US scepticism on international free-trade and defence agreements is rational in an unstable world, according to US geopolitical forecaster and author, George Friedman.

Following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK Brexit referendum and of Donald Trump in the US election, focus has shifted to the upcoming referendum in Italy. There is a disquieting real-time poll of investor sentiment.

Does our character manifest itself in our investing decisions? This Resources Kit presents 10 key research papers, presentations and opinion pieces around what determines values, how values impact ethics and behaviour, and the relationship to trust.

I wonder whether this post-Trump market rally and associated bullish economic and market narrative will come to be seen as one of the more prominent historical examples of poorly timed and lazy market groupthink.

Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

According to most commentators, Trump's election signifies the end of the West, the international post-War framework, or the United States. I beg to differ.

Trump must now choose between cooperation and confrontation as the framework for US policy toward China. His choice should be obvious.

Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit maximiser. This could be the most business and financial markets friendly regime in a long time.

A Trump administration means a significant shift in Washington policy for at least the next four years. There are five key areas in which Trump's policy decisions could have an economic impact.

Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal spending, and protecting entitlements at current levels. What are the investment implications?

Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.

Five years after the Euro crisis, it's not just Europe we’re concerned about from a populist perspective but also the US and UK. Why is this is a real risk for investors?

Active Share can be an effective way to evaluate the appropriateness of a fund manager's fee. Low Active Share funds should come with index-fund-like fees.

Over the span of history, there are few years that can genuinely be considered as years on which the history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for the UK.

The belief that innovative and extremely easy monetary policy on its own would restore a suitable level of economic growth and inflation was wrong, both in theory and in practice.

Variable withdrawal strategies for retirement spending are receiving more attention. Optimal asset allocations for such strategies are quite different to rules of thumb based on fixed withdrawal strategies.

Until recently, the expectation was that if professional economists achieved a technocratic consensus on a given policy approach, political leaders would listen.

The Australian sharemarket’s high weight to resource stocks is an accident of history and geography. A lower than market cap weight to resource stocks in portfolios seems much more sensible.

The IMF is right to warn that populism poses a serious threat to the global economy. What is really worrying is It is no longer only populists of Donald Trump's ilk who are delivering it. Mainstream politicians increasingly sound populist too.

Only 1 in 10 listed companies globally achieved sustainable, profitable growth over the decade. A disproportionate number had a founder still running the firm or who remains on the Board.

Perhaps the best way to manage sequence of return risk in the years leading up to retirement and thereafter is simply to build up and then use a reserve of bonds to weather the storm.

Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.

The gravest geopolitical challenge is not terrorism, or the Middle East, or Brexit, but a possible eruption between China and the US, the world's two largest economies and militaries. It is always when the most powerful countries clash that the world is altered fundamentally.

Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

The latest reason offered as to why not to buy Australia's major banks is that their margins could be taken away by a well resourced disrupter. Should we not own the banks, as a result?

Economic growth since 2008 has been profoundly disappointing. But if we look at global economic growth over the next 30 to 60 years, the picture looks much brighter.

Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an approach to cutting through fund performance "noise" to find the signal - the bigger picture investment view that enables us to construct better investment portfolios.

Zero, and especially negative, nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.

Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

Short-term thinking in finance is nothing new. New paradigms may emerge slowly and without much publicity. Listen for weak signals - ideas may emerge in some unconventional ways.

While parts of the asset management industry appear to be dumbing down, we must continue to educate individuals on the differences between investment and speculation.

Most investors don't experience the same returns of the portfolio or fund they are invested in. Investment discipline is the key - not emotion, not market noise - to ensuring you arrive at your planned investment destination.

Too often when analysing investments, the focus is on pure performance over too short a timeframe. We must lengthen the timeframe and adjust for risks, before we can begin to know whether value has truly been added.

A clear investment philosophy will be your rock in times when short-term noise plays havoc with your portfolios.

Individuals underestimate the degree to which their lives will change over the long-term, so how can practitioners build portfolios to meet clients' future needs?

Practitioners need to move away from a focus on simple performance towards holistic client management. The industry needs to change, rebuilding trust with better diversity and transparency.

People vary tremendously in their impatience. For many, it is a real struggle to take the long view. New research shows how to identify and manage financial impatience.

Investing offshore requires currency exposure. Currency impacts can wash out over time, but its tidal forces are strong and independent of a client's retirement time frame. Currency is both a risk and an investment opportunity.

Investors can harness the long-run benefits of active satellites like global small caps to drive better portfolio outcomes despite volatile markets.

While not traditionally known for income, there are thousands of dividend income opportunities among global companies which can provide income similar to Australian shares.

Real assets including real estate have overinflated valuations. Investors need to understand the frame work necessary to manage the trade-off between shorter term returns and longer term risks.

With global yields at record lows, bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn that talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

With most market participants distracted by short-term noise or focused on mean reversion of long-term valuations, the gap in the middle is an under-researched and fertile hunting ground.

Liquid alternatives have the potential to provide significant short- and long-term benefits for investors. It is important to not let common misconceptions about liquid alternatives undermine their potential benefits.

Provided investors define infrastructure in a disciplined manner, investment in infrastructure will continue to deliver investors reliable earnings over time.

Tracking error constraints on active management focus on short-term outcomes and don’t align with most investor goals, which are longer term. So how else can portfolios be designed?

For all the wisdom of four centuries of investing, not much has changed in financial markets. Boom and bust cycles still exist and speculation is higher than ever. But the Prudent Man Rule from 1830 can serve as a useful anchor for investors.

Longer-term assessments of risk and potential returns will always underpin the construction of multi-asset or diversified portfolios. However, context matters.

It seems sensible to make investment managers accountable by requiring them to perform relative to a benchmark. But this kind of motivation has a perverse effect.

The benefits of long-term investing extend beyond just being able to invest in illiquid assets. Patience can pay its own dividend. The challenge is holding at bay the relentless pressures to respond and deliver over the short term.

Greater self-determination and social justice for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples offers a path to progress.

This panel debated the high conviction thesis that the key geopolitical risk of the times is tension between China, the US and South East Asian countries, as well as the impact of the US election on markets.

Geopolitical tensions between China, the US, and countries of South East Asia are growing. Most investors dismiss the region as a risk. But we are at a precipice of a left-tail risk event.

There has never been a more divisive US election season than the one we are witnessing right now. While the rhetoric and opinion polls are captivating on a weekly basis, the long game is what matters.

It is easy to assume that leadership (or a lack thereof) only occurs in upper level, high status positions. The long and short of this premise needs to be scrutinised. We must recalibrate our thinking.

Markets are volatile and events are unprecedented – or at least that’s what we’re told and have been conditioned to believe. Times and markets are volatile, but they always have been and they always will be.

Client needs are changing. And these changes will challenge asset managers, especially as the industry goes through consolidation.

Cost structures will continue to evolve rapidly, as more firms and individuals realise that cost is the one component than investors can control, to improve their outcomes.

Australian banks face a number of headwinds - they are real, but could better be described as zephyrs. The market has overreacted. Buy the banks.

It is possible to generate high returns with low risk irrespective of where short-term cash rates or long-term government bond yields may be.

Many SMSF portfolios are inefficient - creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk to achieve existing returns over the shorter term.

Finding patterns in data to make money in falling or rising markets relies on an empirical, skeptical, scientific mindset to identify signals.

Listed and unlisted infrastructure investment are complimentary ways to access the same underlying cash flows. But varying investor time horizons impact the investment returns both targeted and achieved.

Increasing equity exposure for retirees does not have to be a daunting move. Breaking down the index shows that income and not capital has been doing the heavy lifting over the longer term.

The active versus passive debate is being displaced by active versus smart beta. Active managers need to demonstrate that their investment philosophy is designed to exploit inefficiencies that are sustainable over time.

By encouraging investors to control their emotions and by choosing the right funds, we can help them meet their long-term needs.

As an investor, allowing yourself to be distracted by quick interpretation of market dynamics will lead to poor allocation decisions. Ultimately, fundamentals will win out for long-term investors.

Demographic trends give a solid basis from which to forecast beyond the usual two-year time horizon. Demographic layering of equity investment decisions can be a powerful structural growth tool as well as a strong risk mitigator.

Finance principles tell investors to buy good companies at attractive prices and they should perform over the long term. But what worked last century won't necessarily stand true this century.

Rapid technological innovation, affordable communication, and demographic shifts are reshaping the world. The traditional country/regional approach to asset allocation is not optimal for capturing these new opportunities.

Australia’s bond market has evolved over time. As it grows and sub-sectors emerge, investor must ask – is my defensive allocation true-to-label?

Active fund groups with the right combination of culture, technology and philosophy enable investors to protect and grow their capital in a complex world.

Client solutions will require the use of both smarter passive and high conviction active strategies, allocated in a way to meet the needs of individuals.

This panel debated the high conviction thesis that global policy rates will stay low for the rest of the decade and what forces that could change that outlook.

The long-term ambitions of investors and politicians are often thwarted by short-term pressures. The solution may comprise a combination of passive and high conviction alpha strategies.

Passive investment has flourished since the GFC but we are entering a new environment where active management will thrive. The opportunity for practitioners to add value has gone up significantly.

The financial system we bequeath is unstable, un-trusted and built on inappropriate theory with mis-aligned incentives.

Many assume there is a trade-off between investing for financial returns and social impact. This is false and misleading. There is a synergy between profit and purpose.

It remains possible to generate alpha from liquid strategies but investors must shift their focus away from short-term performance, and towards longer-term measurements of success.

Investing is supposed to be about the incremental replacement of human capital with financial capital over the long term. But today's environment and our behavioural biases conspire against such a pure case.

Rather than adopting a set-and-forget approach, long-term investors should be engaged asset owners and take a broader perspective on risk, in order to achieve sustainable investment returns.

Data overfitting is a well known problem and one would expect clever statisticians and scientists not to succumb to its temptations. But "meta-overfitting" may be endemic in finance.

Rising liabilities and low expected returns are driving a greater focus on outcome-based strategies and factor investing.

As the Australian bond market grows and sub-sectors emerge, investor must ask – is my defensive allocation true-to-label?

A new breed of companies – creative, nimble and networked – offer a powerful investment opportunity. Investors need to consider diversifying domestic exposures to access this set of long-term opportunities.

Amongst fundamental managers, it is critical to distinction those that are genuinely active and achieve high active share and tracking error through generating idiosyncratic returns.

Critics charge that liquid alternative funds may not provide exposure to quality hedge fund managers and exhibit lower performance potential. This paper examines those concerns.

Maintaining a solid level of income for the retiree must remain at the forefront of thinking and a move up the risk spectrum into equities provides a solution.

The infrastructure asset class, when defined in a disciplined manner, generates reliable earnings - and for the foreseeable future, earnings of infrastructure assets should continue to be reliable.

Despite interest rates being at historic lows, there are thousands of dividend income opportunities amongst global companies that can provide income for a desirable retirement lifestyle.

A range of cognitive biases leads investors to generally overestimate their skill. A long-term investment strategy simply compounds this problem. A long-short investment structure can improve outcomes.

Investors are increasingly short term in their orientation. An arbitrage opportunity exists for managers with a longer investment horizon.

Tracking error constraints on active management focus on short-term outcomes and don't align with most investor goals, which are longer term. A low tracking error portfolio can often lead to an unfavourable outcome for end investors.

The listed infrastructure market provides investors with a broad, deep and liquid range of infrastructure investment opportunities.

A satellite allocation to global small caps can increase portfolio efficiency over the long term.

Change is pervasive, whether at macro, sector or stock level. This argues for an approach that does not favour any particular investment style.

SMSF portfolios appear inefficient – creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk for the existing return.

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

In portfolios with international exposure, there are times when currency returns dominate overall performance. This paper analyses the currency hedge decision from the perspective of an Australian investor with international exposure.

Bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn this talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

The world of investing and business has seen a great deal of change in the past 30 years. Investors face a slew of psychological challenges. Here are the 10 attributes I believe to be the hallmark of a great investor.

Since the birth of the modern stock market in 1602, investment culture has moved from a return focus to a risk focus, and back. What can investors in the 21st century learn from four centuries of investment history?

Public distrust of global integration is on the rise. But no country can deliver long-term prosperity to its people on its own. Closer international cooperation and economic integration is the only way forward.

Globalisation's early opponents in emerging and developing countries have been joined by tens of millions in advanced countries. The rules of the game need to be changed – and this must include measures to tame globalisation.

It has become accepted, conventional wisdom that investors underperform their investments by timing those investments badly. But this new conventional wisdom must be debunked.

Research suggests that we have remarkably little insight into our future preferences. So a challenge of goals-based investing is that we save towards a goal that isn't what we want when the time comes.

Considering structural and cyclical drivers can help reveal investment opportunities, if an appropriate timeframe is defined. A two- to three-year period is an under researched view.

The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.

There are five geopolitically important issues for portfolios for the upcoming year. If these concerns become critical, they will likely weigh on equities and higher credit risk debt.

How long is it since Australia had a recession? Most would say 26 years. A world record. By looking at the data a little differently, we may not be so sure that Australia has gone 26 years without a hiccup.

How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at an unknowable future date?

With most asset classes offering limited return potential, there is a drive for more alpha, but finding it is not easy. Discount narrowing on LICs can be a valuable source.

What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.

While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.

Populism in developed countries is real, but there are meaningful differences between the UK and US stories that are important to keep in mind in the run-up to US Presidential election.

New research has found that teams of three portfolio managers deliver higher gains, adjusted for risk, than funds managed by a single individual or by teams of other sizes.

It's 10 years since the Forum's publisher, Graham Rich, interviewed Hamish Douglass and Chris Mackay as the firm launched the now behemoth Magellan Global Fund.

With Remainers now accepting the argument that Britain should keep Europeans out, the UK is headed for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but from Europe's single market. It will cost the country dearly.

Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate" approach may be a better approach than the traditional 4% rule.

The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.

The "best" retirement income strategy may be very different depending on whether you measure based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure, or utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks.

QE has caused massive investment distortions. Ditto the ZIRP and NIRP policies of many central banks. Beware - the chickens are coming home to roost! It seems plausible, but...

As the battle for the White House heats up, candidates are drawing attention to the challenges facing the nation. But whatever the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election, we believe the impact on markets will be about the same.

I previously worked with the London think tank closely linked to David Cameron and his Tory modernisers. It was fascinating for me to watch Brexit from afar. Here's my take on what we've just witnessed.

The lesson from Brexit is clear - put questions to a popular vote only when there can be no misunderstanding about how much (or how little) is at stake. The Brexit referendum failed that test.

The Brexit referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration. What's next for the UK? Who is next to exit? What does this mean for broader global stability? And - most importantly - what are investment implications?

The next bear market will come like the proverbial 'thief in the night' and none of us can predict the hour or day. Preparing clients for bearish times may be more important than portfolio design. But how?

Since winning independence from South Africa in 1990, this country of 2.4 million people has achieved enormous gains, especially in the last couple of years.

Everybody is an Australian equities expert, understandably so for those who live in Australia. But the X factor in Australian equities portfolios is concentration risk.

The current investment environment is arguably one of the toughest ever in which to build portfolios that deliver return and are robust into the future. There are a range of approaches that can be taken.

Setting an appropriate spending level is one of the most crucial tasks for retirees. Spend too much and risk utter penury down the track. Be too conservative and the client spends their remaining years in unnecessary hardship.

The view prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs is that we are entering a new golden era of innovation which will radically increase productivity growth. Why haven't those gains appeared?

"Africa rising" has been a catchphrase since the beginning of this century. It is the idea that Africa, and especially Sub-Saharan Africa, could be to the 21st century what South-East Asia was to the second half of the 20th century.

By definition, Black Swans are unknowable - they should surprise us. But here are 10 "gray swans" complicating the outlook for markets and portfolio construction.

Many have spoken of the significant risks funds carry with Australian equities exposures. So I thought I'd check the evidence on the influence of equities on multi-asset portfolios.

Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results. Central bankers seem intent on repeating their mistakes - especially when it comes to negative interest rates.

Investors are not accounting for the structural shifts taking place in East Asia that raise the probability of market-negative events. Asia- or EM-dedicated investors should hedge their risks by exposure to DM assets.

Economists and investors risk being blindsided by a global upswing that is already underway, financial historian Professor Niall Ferguson explained at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016.

One of the most important decisions facing retirees is working out how much can be “safely” spent without the risk of exhausting capital. This session reviewed the different approaches to create a formal, written spending policy.

Presented in a format that incorporates a game, this workshop explored the risk factors that drive retirement portfolio outcomes.

Risk profiling is entirely broken. The key to understanding clients is in analysing their actions, not their words, or answers to a risk questionnaire.

India’s demographic dividend creates a significant market opportunity for corporates operating within the ecosystem. But size really does matter, leading to the potential for unparalleled revenue growth.

Central bankers successfully tamed inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Persistently low inflation is the new problem. With markets complacent about the inflation outlook, signs of inflation could create a scare.

Investors are slowly awakening to the threat that negative interest rates globally pose to their goals. Diversified funds need a higher mix of growth assets, and TAA should be applied.

The currency exposure embedded in foreign equity portfolios exposes portfolios to a great deal of noise. Used productively, the opportunity it represents can be captured as the ultimate "alternative asset".

US private market home loans – income producing, low credit risk, low volatility assets that can generate a stable flow of monthly income - are one of many opportunities to consider for portfolios.

It's a sad fact that not everyone adjusts well to retirement. It's estimated that about one third of retirees have problems adapting after leaving full time work. So why do some people fail to adapt? A Dynamic Resource Model provides a potential solution.

Each panelist outlined the high conviction idea they agreed with most from the prior day, and the portfolio construction implications. Then delegates worked in tables to determine the same.

Our Symposium 2016 Faculty debated two high conviction ideas from the first day's program - firstly, the idea that delegates agreed with most and then, the idea delegates disagreed with most.

While record low interest rates worldwide (negative in many countries) mean low returns on government bonds, it doesn't necessarily mean low returns across the board. This is not a time to be fearful.

The EU has been in crisis for many years. But if you thought it could not get worse for Europe, you ain't seen nothing yet! 2016 might well signify the end of Europe's process of integration.

China's growth has become reliant on credit stimulus and a related property bubble. This is coming unstuck. The risks to the global economy and markets are significant.

The tepid recovery from 2008's GFC has surprised almost everyone. Investing in this low growth world requires a very selective stock picking approach, and suggests focusing on value and quality.

Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios. The use of a modified Piotroski indicator as an indicator or screen for equities can significantly add to investment performance in NZ and Australia.

If you see one cockroach, you haven't seen them all. That's a very important concept today for managing diversified portfolios. We see one cockroach – low interest rates, but what we don't see is the hidden consequences throughout portfolios.

With a growing number of central banks resorting to negative interest rates and the IMF acknowledging the risk of secular stagnation, investors could be forgiven for feeling nervous. Yet there is some evidence that the global economy may be at an inflection point.

Nearly every investor is confronting the challenge of how to invest in a low growth, low return environment. Investors must rethink portfolio construction.

The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield debt cycle into unchartered territory. It is approaching shakeout - with long/short opportunities amongst the beneficiaries of the current cycle.

Investors need to be wary that without much needed reform, structural weaknesses in many advanced and developing economies will be the ultimate determinant of longer-term returns.

The world seems an increasingly dangerous place, driven by uncertainty and conflict. Yet on many measures, the world is becoming safer. More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and consider emerging geo-political developments shaping the world.

PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, opened Symposium 2016 in his usual thought-provoking (and entertaining) way.

China's credit-fuelled investment growth phase is reaching its end game and new sources of growth are needed to drive the economy.

Markets are focused on the economic cycle as an indicator of central bank actions. But inflation should be the most important macro indicator on the radar of investors.

More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and consider the geo-political developments which are shaping the world.

Most economists continue to view the economic future as more rosy (if their forecasts of economic acceleration are any guide) while the Fed is implicitly saying the same by raising rates and forecasting further rate rises. But there are three main reasons caution.

Gold stocks have become a great addition to portfolios - based on expected returns as well as their strong diversification benefits given a beta of almost nothing.

Australia is increasingly resorting to "debt bubble economics" - exactly what caused bubbles and major busts in the US and other economies in recent decades.

Monte Carlo analysis is the most common tool used to project portfolio values - yet it has an optimistic bias that sizeably underestimate required retirement savings.

George Soros may be wrong about global deflation for four reasons. But if Trump wins the Republican nomination and then the presidency, all bets will be off.

Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened that the US economic recovery is moving into a new phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of growth.

The lesson of history is that British isolationism is a trigger for continental disintegration. A vote for Brexit will mean Britain will have to "Breturn" sooner or later, to sort out the ensuing mess.

Notwithstanding an extended period of stability this year, the Chinese Yuan remains fairly high on investors' lists of global risk factors. Perceptions of vulnerability remain and are worth addressing.

Retirement income planning is a relatively new field that differs from traditional wealth accumulation. Eight key ideas serve as a manifesto for my approach to retirement income planning.

We expect the US election to start mattering to markets at the end of August, once the two candidates are chosen. Policy uncertainty will rise and the US equity risk premium with it.

Retirees and their pensions are being sacrificed for what now passes as "the greater good." ZIRP has created a massive problem for retirement savers and pension fund managers. NIRP will make their problem worse.

I awoke to read three pieces in the papers. These items contained news that would have surprised nobody, had global economic and market commentators been doing their job of properly interpreting the news.

The worlds of business, investing, and sports are awash in numbers, yet we rarely pause to consider what makes for a suitable statistic.

You may have concluded by now that the euro crisis is over. If you are a realist, however, you would be looking at two figures and know that we are still right in the middle of the euro crisis. And it has become permanent.

Even multi-asset-class portfolios aren't always really diversified. Being properly diversified means always having to say you're sorry about some investment that's not moving in the same direction as the rest.

Unconventional monetary policies have themselves become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have to continue their fight with a new set of "unconventional unconventional" policies.

The economic theories of the pre-crisis period – rational expectations, efficient markets, and the neutrality of money – must be revised. Politicians must encourage a revolution in economic thinking.

One might argue that Australia's high dividend yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally smaller companies means the Australian equity market behaves like a global small cap with a value style tilt. Is that true?

In the last 10 years, many companies from emerging economies have closed the corporate governance gap relative to their developed market counterparts. Such companies find themselves in a sweet spot.

No one expected the FOMC to change its policy rate from 0.25% to 0.50% this month - but this month's meeting still provided plenty of unusual twists that warrant serious thought.

Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing risk management strategy.

We're often told that the answer to managing sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility, low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!

The Brexit referendum is about where the British see the best chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

The 1672 debt default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old tale of government finance that offers practical lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.

The policy response to a hugely levered global economy has turned to a discussion of money creation to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever more unconventional.

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces are frequently useless to the average investor or adviser.

Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

Very few believe that past prices can tell you something about the future but there is a somewhat remarkable consistency to the trend of the Australian equity market returns over the last 45 years.

It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.

Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I don't.

Delegates determined their key takeouts from the day's program, and actions to take to further improve the way they relate with individual investors - and/or help others who must do so.

The conventional tactics of asking questions to gain trust during client meetings are based on faulty and outdated assumptions. Five conversational recipes are needed to achieve a trust trifecta.

Use clients' choices to recover both their true preferences and their financial sophistication and the impact of complexity on client decision-making.

State Street's 2015 Retirement Survey interviewed 1200 Australians, to understand the psychology of Australian retirees and the opportunity to engage and boost confidence.

It's a sad fact that not everyone adjusts well to retirement. It's estimated that about one third of retirees have problems adapting after leaving full time work. So why do some people fail to adapt? A Dynamic Resource Model provides a potential solution.

Research in finology, neurology and psychology consistently reveal that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities. Merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn’t fix the problem. The real question is ‘how can we do better?’

In our society, it’s critical that every individual has a clear perspective about money, and the role that it plays in their present and future well-being. But money means different things to different people.

Like 2014 and 2015, Australian resources stocks in 2016 may look cheap but it is not an attractive trade. More reliable returns will be delivered by high quality companies well beyond the familiar territory of the 20 Leaders.

The three motions put by our independent economists for Markets Summit 2016 were 1. Capitalism and globalisation will not survive the next GFC; 2. The markets are overreacting in particular to the outlook for China’s economy and currency, and the prospects for financials; 3. You should protect your positions this year by buying risk overlays.

This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is still middle aged and has years to go. Equity markets continue to be attractive on their own merits and especially relative to fixed income.

For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money' policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money' recovery. With the Fed now two years into tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost. The equity bear market is underway.

It's true that the past few years have been challenging for emerging markets as a whole. But not all emerging economies are equal, and uneven prospects are driving compelling return differences. Investors should have them back on their radars.

The EU has been in crisis for many years. You ain't seen nothing yet! 2016 will change the nature of the EU – and it might well signify deja-vu, the end of Europe's process of political and economic integration.

Today, there are no clearly diversifying mainstream assets. All assets are expensive and what seems safe may hold the greatest risk. We need to set realistic expectations and invest only of the basis of genuine insight.

In a cyclical sector like commodity, deja-vu abounds for those with a long memory. As the outlook improves, equities usually rally before commodity prices, responding to improved demand forecasts.

Australian equity investors should look beyond the largest blue chip stocks in the financial, resources and telecommunications sectors – to industrial companies that are better positioned for growth.

Investment in "peripheral" Europe is a high-risk proposition. Much has changed, but nothing has changed! Yes, the eurozone is an economic calamity.

The market continues to misprice the risk of large scale defaults and debt restructures. Now is the time to sell high yield and EM bonds exposure, while you still can.

Growing wealth and managing risk is a considerably more complex challenge than it was a decade ago. Excellence in asset allocation and implementation are more important than ever before.

The Australian equity market will continue to underwhelm going forward. Investors need an equally-weighted approach to returns that places far less emphasis on commodities and banking.

We are at an inflection point where the global dependency ratio is becoming adverse. This will lead to profound changes to the composition of the population around the world, polarising investment opportunities.

The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase.

It's possible to have your cake and eat it too. Global investment grade credit has not been this attractive in spread terms for the past six years.

Often in markets, you do get the feeling that somehow we've been here before. But things are never quite the same. Looking at some examples from the past, particularly Japan, we can see what can we learn and apply to our investment decisions going forward.

As China's economy slows and policymakers struggle, economic friction is mounting. Without drastic reforms, China will find it difficult to avoid the middle income trap.

China's Black Monday renewed investor concerns about a hard landing. It is critical to assess the macroeconomic and market scenarios of a China hard landing and the impact on investors' portfolios.

Debt levels are too high (deja-vu!). Until now, QE has softened the impact. With consensus perceiving the Fed to return to normal (?), markets are entering unchartered waters - 2016 is set to be a volatile year.

For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. The coming year will be a rerun of this theme. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

The Fed has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu - there continues to be a great disagreement about the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than most expect and QT will impact on financial asset volatility.