These tutorials relate to the IMAC 2023 lectures and are available to CIMA candidates currently completing the Investment Managment Analyst Certificate course.

Artificial intelligence will revolutionise our lives - but investors should beware the lofty multiples being assigned to AI-related stocks. We are in a replay of the dotcom bubble.

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Today, as practitioners continue to navigate the structural shift to an inflationary, higher interest rate investment regime in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world, it stands to reason that portfolio strategies must continue to evolve from what worked in the prior “lower for longer” regime. We must think through which portfolio construction strategies remain fit for purpose, which are no longer appropriate, and which new strategies should be adopted. But common wisdom also warns us against throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Prioritising the most important changes to make to investment objectives, asset allocation, currency management, manager selection and blending, and risk management is key – because you can do anything, just not everything!

We are at a critical turning point in human history as developments in the field of artificial intelligence revolutionise the ways in which people work, learn and play – to the same extent that the printing press, steam engines, electrification, telephones, television, computing and the internet changed the world. While the integration of AI promises radical productivity improvements across a range of activities, concerns are growing that such technologies will exacerbate social inequality, the spread of misinformation, and financial volatility, to name just a few. And then there is the “known unknown” risk of so-called singularity in which AI surpasses human intelligence.

Some 20 years ago, the Forum stood out from the crowd by arguing that the “Turbo of Technology” was one of five megatrends that would shape portfolio construction for decades to come. It’s hard to remember, but Google was just a baby! But it seems we ain’t seen nothing yet. Not only has the Turbo of Technology arrived, a ludicrous exponential curve is upon us. Technology is more than one of five Megatrends – it is THE megatrend! Investment fund managers, service providers and practitioners must understand the risks and opportunities associated with the unfolding evolution of technology and AI, and take specific action relevant to multi-asset, multi-manager investment portfolio construction. Doing nothing is not an option!

Three gigantic, global, interconnected risks have the potential to upend the world as we know it. Investors who understand these will be better positioned to successfully navigate the uncertainty plaguing our world.

In the same way that Moneyball has swept every professional sport, data science is bringing greater transparency to portfolio managers' decision-making skill. To select managers capable of outperforming, behavioural analysis is crucial.

At a time when "you can do anything", there are meaningful implications and opportunities for portfolio rebalancing and investors still structurally underweight bonds need to put aside recency bias and "do something" - now.

Many financial commentators have suggested that the strong growth of the non‐bank corporate lending market is a short‐term, cyclical trend that could threaten the stability of our financial system. The growth of the non‐bank market can be explained by a long‐term structural shift toward private capital as banks and public markets have transitioned from serving small and medium‐sized companies to larger companies over the past several decades. For investors, private credit presents an attractive opportunity to add diversification and attractive risk-adjusted returns portfolios. Characteristics such as yield premium over comparable liquid markets, control, upfront economics and low historical volatility and default rates all make this asset class one to consider for a core allocation in investors’ portfolios.

The market and economic backdrop is making diversification in a global equity allocation difficult. Market cap indices are narrower than any time in history, as the market and active managers flock to the mega caps perceived as logical winners from the AI revolution. As markets become narrow and expensive, core, growth and quality portfolios are converging. This presents risks for many portfolios but a great opportunity for valuation-focused investors. While headline multiples are demanding, there remains opportunities in predictable earnings and forecastable cashflow generators that are being overlooked. As valuation and concentration risks rise, doing nothing is no longer an option, particularly when not everything carries the same risks.

Every day, every one of us is touched by infrastructure and, the longer we live, the more billions of us there are, and the more we need infrastructure. Driven by a number of macro themes, over the next 17 years to 2040, experts predict we need to invest US$94 trillion in infrastructure just to keep pace with our human needs. This investment has benefits to people and communities everywhere. Demand for essential infrastructure offers opportunities for investors to generate a steady reliable income with inflation protection built in and includes mitigants to a rising interest rate environment. In today’s world of uncertainty and volatility, one thing that is certain is the ‘essential’ role infrastructure plays in investment portfolios. If you do anything, include infrastructure in portfolios.

While global markets in 2023 have been led by a narrow group of mega-cap stocks, global small caps may be rewarded by the markets going forward supported by faster expected earnings growth and compelling valuations relative to large cap equities. The size and dynamism of the universe allows managers to identify a broad array of small cap companies across geographies and industries with improving company fundamentals and scope for multiple expansion. Stock selection and prudent portfolio diversification, however, are critical as investing in small caps translates to both greater opportunity and risk.

Opinions about private markets are often not rooted in facts, due in part to the fact that data on private markets has been scarce. But data is available and it debunks some of the common misconceptions about private markets.

The unique characteristics of private debt make it ideal for any portfolio. It is a versatile asset class that fits in either the defensive or growth component of an investment strategy – or even both at the same time. It can provide a strong hedge against inflation, increase a portfolio’s total return and decrease overall risk. Funds that hold lower risk positions in senior secured or investment grade debt may be a suitable alternative to traditional bonds. Alternatively, funds with exposure to sub-investment grade debt or alternative parts of the capital structure can replace part of an allocation to equities. Either way, private debt’s low correlation with other asset classes means it really can give investors just about everything across a full economic cycle.

Warren Buffett famously said, “in the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine” - what gets weighed are fundamentals, specifically earnings. Brokers hire a great many analysts to write and publish detailed analysis on corporate earnings forecasts. These individual forecasts are combined to create consensus median estimates on what a company is expected to earn in 12 months’ time. It’s right to focus on earnings, but the level of delivered growth is less important than the surprise in growth, the amount by which a company beats or disappoints relative to expectations. Equity factors focused on fundamentals deliver better outcomes - and given the uncertainty in the current environment, the Quality and Low Volatility factors can capture better earnings surprise when the overall market disappoints, providing protection in an equity allocation.

The transition a net zero emission economy offers risks and opportunities for investors. Investors are increasingly seeking to invest in the resource companies and manufacturers whose products are required to enable the world to transition to cleaner energy sources while avoiding businesses with high emissions, due to concerns about asset stranding risk. Infrastructure companies provide access to energy, water and transport - as they always have done - and are generally not viewed as exciting energy transition opportunities. Furthermore, infrastructure screens as high emissions. However, infrastructure sectors are major beneficiaries of the transition and concerns about asset stranding risk are misplaced. Infrastructure is a simple way to benefit from the transition to a net zero emission economy and represents a multi-decade growth opportunity.

Emerging Market (EM) equities continue to trade at significant discounts to those in Developed Markets (DM). With structural demographic tailwinds, years of relatively progressive interest rate policies and major progress on the ESG front, most EM economies (at least those with a reliable rule of law) are well placed to deliver positive outcomes for investors. Today, many of the leading companies servicing those economies have superior earnings growth to their DM peers with many trading even cheaper than at the height of the Covid market turmoil. Are valuation driven investors breaching their own defensible investment philosophy by not holding a standalone exposure to EM equities?

Further weakening of the global economy continues to be likely with geopolitical, policy and banking sector pressures and the elevated probability of recession in coming quarters. Sitting on the sidelines with cash, however, comes at opportunity costs to investors with current yields at a decade high. The role of bonds in a portfolio can aid in pursuing investor goals or stabilising a portfolio to be more resilient when economic shocks hit markets, however, many investors would benefit from evaluating whether their bond holdings are meeting these goals. Investment-grade corporate bonds offers an important ballast towards overall asset allocation and can improve portfolio risk-adjusted returns. A focus on the highest quality securities will provide opportunities for investors to capture future income, as well as add a defensive anchor within portfolios.

Private Equity funds are impressive and have great marketing. It would be great if we could "invest in everything", but that is not feasible. Fund selection has massive alpha potential, but it is hard, and only ever investing in top quartile funds over time is virtually impossible. Private Equity pooled returns (weighted average) have historically been attractive, while also less volatile than investing in a single fund or fund-of-funds. A lower cost, efficient and scalable approach to investing, effectively allowing investors to "buy the private market" would be easier and better. An investible index of private market funds would deliver this and complement investors' portfolios in many ways, just like in public markets.

The median Australian small cap manager has outperformed the ASX Small Ordinaries consistently over the long term. Persistent operational and valuation leverage along with differentiated investment approaches creates this ongoing alpha opportunity. Small Caps have underperformed large cap peers in recent times however cyclical factors today and a rebound in domestic risk sets up for the reemergence in Australian Smalls.

Why does our industry exist, why do we as industry professionals get up in the morning, how often do you speak with your clients, what about the actual end-client? As professionals we need to stand with our clients and share our voice to ensure risk-aware approaches – and the ability to provide security to our clients’ investment journeys – remains part of our investment landscape. We must whole-heartedly embrace risk AND return multi-asset portfolio construction.

The Investing Roundtable explores key challenges and opportunities in multi-asset, multi-manager portfolio construction that practitioners should be thinking about, given they can do anything, but not everything! Our research analysts will each articulate a challenge or opportunity related to researching and identifying quality investment management solutions that they believe portfolio construction practitioners should be thinking about when building quality multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios.

The young are better able to navigate volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, owing to their natural growth and learning mindset. In an environment where investors can do anything, just not everything, we can all benefit from adopting a youth mindset. Young people own their values, are passionate in their activism, use empathy to understand the world, and seek clarity and choices that allow them to be agile and adaptable. Practitioners can incorporate these lessons to successfully navigate a VUCA world, and build better quality multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios for their clients.

Anyone prognosticating on the future has likely heard the cliches “even a broken clock is right twice a day” and “every now and then a blind squirrel will find a nut”. The primary criticism directed at those who think about the future is that it’s an act of futility. The blunt reality is that accuracy cannot and should not be the criterion upon which to evaluate thinking about the future. Usefulness is a far better standard. Mechanical as it may be, thinking about various scenarios of how the future may unfold has proven to be among the most useful ways to make decisions amidst radical uncertainty.

Markets have undergone a regime shift - to prosper, we need to understand the factors that will be crucial to building multi-asset portfolios capable of delivering financial wellbeing in the years ahead.

This is Part Two of our annual three-part Strategies Conference Investment Committee hypothetical.

The Investment Committee (our Strategies Conference delegates) has appointed an independent consulting firm to provide a robust and transparently determined and documented global economic outlook for the next three years, using a scenarios-based economic modelling philosophy. In this session, the economists summarise and debate three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next three years.

Then, the economists and a diverse panel of asset class experts debate the implications of the three economic scenarios for medium-term (three-year) asset class returns.

Following the panel discussion, the Investment Committee members (Strategies Conference delegates) vote on the likelihood of each of the three scenarios, to determine which is most likely, next most likely and least likely. The outcome is then an input to into the Asset Allocation Roundtable 2023, Part Three of our Investment Committee hypothetical.

This is Part Three of our annual three-part Strategies Conference Investment Committee hypothetical.

The inputs from the Economic Scenarios & Asset Class Outlook Roundtable are used to determine a neutral asset allocation for a hypothetical portfolio.

Our Investment Committee (Strategies Conference delegates) then determines the dynamic asset allocation by voting separately on whether to underweight or overweight the various asset classes.

Our panel then debates the optimal implementation of the DAA, with reference to investment styles, duration, credit, and listed/unlisted assets, among other considerations.

Three gigantic, global, interconnected risks have the potential to upend the world as we know it. Escalating US-China war, the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence, and challenges to the US dollar’s reserve currency status will define the geopolitical, technological, and economic landscape in coming decades. Yet each risk is accompanied by tremendous opportunity. Investors who understand a wide range of potential outcomes for ambiguous developments will be better positioned to successfully navigate the uncertainty plaguing our world.

Part 3 draws together the threads of Strategies Conference 2023, in a debate on the key takeouts from this year’s program and the actions that practitioners can take to mitigate global risks and take advantage of the accompanying opportunities in multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios.

Beyond a near-term sluggish outlook for global growth, practitioners should think about three key forces which will drive long-term market risks and opportunities.

Achieving equity like returns with much lower risk and equivalent liquidity is the holy grail that is now on offer from high yield.

Since central banks abandoned their ultra-loose monetary policies, currencies once again offer a source of investment returns, as well as portfolio diversification.

While the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves is in long-term decline, the currency's dominance will continue despite the rising risk of embedded inflation.

As economies slow, fixed income will once again provide portfolio diversification, allowing practitioners to focus on capturing long-term trends such as climate change and artificial intelligence.

As we move into an era which is both more inflationary and more volatile, asset allocators will need to adapt in order to deliver returns. A dynamic and unconstrained approach to asset allocation will become essential.

Protecting capital in down markets is the foundation for superior returns – and quality investing, with a long-term investment horizon, protects shareholder wealth on the downside, while capturing steady capital growth.

farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...

Active management has consistently delivered outperformance in small companies as the opportunity set allows managers to demonstrate both stock selection and portfolio construction skill.

These tutorials relate are available to CIMA candidates currently studying for the global CIMA Certification Exam.

Confidence in a sea of confusion is key to success. Using three tools of persuasion, we can create a sense of certainty even when who knows what is just around the corner.

Decision attribution analysis provides a crucial lens on equity manager skill, benefiting asset owners and fund buyers as they select and monitor managers.

Investors today have more knowledge than any prior generation, however there remains a chasm between knowing and doing. Acknowledging we are all biased, because we are all human, is the first step to better decisions.

ESG investment is coming under increasing criticism, some valid - but the real problem is the ill-defined use of the acronym itself and we will all be better off if we stop using it.

CRE Debt provides dependable returns, backed by real property first mortgages. On a risk-adjusted return basis, every balanced portfolio should include an allocation to CRE debt.

The energy transition represents the greatest economic opportunity since the industrial revolution. Reliably capturing the potential and delivering tangible environmental impact requires three core beliefs.

Unlisted assets provide access to a bigger opportunity set that reflects active management in its truest form, giving opportunity for investment managers to further diversify multi asset portfolios with rich investments across diverse industries.

A partial allocation of retirement savings to a contemporary lifetime income stream can help increase the certainty of delivering what the income that retiree clients want. And such an allocation can help clients preserve assets.

To earn justified trust from clients and deliver consistently good outcomes for them year after year requires globally recognised fiduciary standards of care.

To better develop the skills required to analyse corporates, we can start with individuals as case studies and scale from there. If analysts can't do that, it's unlikely they can address more complex situations.

...though not unconditionally. The nascent field of Neurofinance suggests that investors attuned to their emotions can make better decisions during critical market events.

We can help retirees build and retain their sense of control by keeping on building trust and educating them, modelling possible outcomes and showing a planned approach – including providing a Plan B.

Retirement strategies must adapt in line with markets and demographics trends and the additional risks that are relevant for investors in decumulation.

A critical part of any retirement plan is a spending plan (which is not the same as a budget). Ultimately, a good spending plan helps keep clients' investments on track.

This Research Roundtable focused on the Ruffer Total Return International (Australia) strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.

Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year, focusing on the key drivers and outlook for the markets. As usual, 2023 Faculty were each challenged to offer their best high conviction proposition in the context of the program theme - this year, "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!" Their high-conviction faculty propositions can be distilled into three key discussion threads, supporting the case that, for portfolios, every VUCA cloud has a silver lining! Watch the highlights video, read the key takeouts - and then delve into the high conviction presentations that most interest you.

As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.

Investors need to leverage the experience of past decades while also humbly contemplating an uncertain outlook. Compared to any post-WWII period, this time really is different!

The pre-pandemic New Normal decade introduced investors to TINA - there is no alternative. With interest rates and bond yields having moved higher, it's time to say goodbye to TINA because bonds are back.

In these unsettled VUCA conditions, private debt can offer short duration with a focus on capital preservation, a silver lining for investors in the form of consistent, risk-adjusted returns and income.

Those constructing portfolios must understand the nuances of bond risk/return drivers and how bond market performance can be impacted by different macro scenarios. Opportunities abound.

The RBA is set to continue rate hikes that will bring on an earnings recession in 2023. Use Australian equity market weakness later in this year as the silver lining to position for an improved long-term outlook for Australian equities.

Global demand for greater computing power continues to escalate, presenting an exciting silver lining of possibilities and investment potential.

Inclusion of private equity as an alternative asset in portfolios is an out-of-date approach that does not consider secular trends in companies staying private and the unfolding democratisation of PE.

As economies continue to recover from the catastrophe of Covid-19 lockdowns, we must re-embrace the pursuit of progress, an idea that is central to science, freedom, and a thriving society.

Although the consequential volatility casts a VUCA cloud over global REIT performance, the silver lining is that this is transitory, in part reflecting a number of the sector's key attributes.

Sustainability is at the core of future societies. By channelling investments in companies with sustainable practices, heightened by environmental and social conscience, investors can seize opportunities in transitioning economies.

After a chaotic period, across most asset classes, silver linings are emerging. Global equity investors can capture these by identifying companies best placed to benefit from shifts in energy and technology.

Once the decision has been made to invest in global small caps, fundamentals return to the fore. Limited research coverage and inefficiencies in the market are the opportunity.

Investors will have to work harder to make money than just owning US beta. The silver lining is that there are large equity markets and sectors that are cheap with significant growth drivers.

After a lost decade, cyclical and structural headwinds are abating for emerging market equities, while profound secular changes are becoming tailwinds. But the path ahead will look very different to the past.

ESG analysis advances and drives sustainable investing by helping investment practitioners develop a clearer view of a company's true market value, consistent with their fiduciary duty.

Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2023 they most strongly agreed with and why, including identifying "silver linings" (investment opportunities not yet fully priced into the market) and which they disagreed with most and why - and the portfolio construction implications of both.

There was plenty of food for thought and grist for the investment portfolio mill, coming out of the recent Markets Summit 2023 "Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!".

This lecture argues that a diversified portfolio of core fixed income securities is an essential component of an optimal multi-asset portfolio. What's your philosophy?

This lecture explores the concept of ethics, contemporary issues in financial services as they relate to ethics, and the relevancy and application of ethics in our everyday lives.

Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?