1. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.

    11-09-17 | More
  2. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    11-09-17 | More
  3. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    11-09-17 | More
  4. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    11-09-17 | More
  5. Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns

    To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.

    Paul Moore | 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  6. There are better alternatives to time-based rebalancing

    Time-based rebalancing is inefficient. Research suggests that tolerance band rebalancing strategies minimise trading and boost portfolio returns. Such threshold approaches may be used in both the portfolio accumulation and decumulation phase, and act as a pre-commitment device for clients.

    Michael Kitces | 24-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  7. Democratic politics & market economics are the axis of value

    Public policy matters to performance at every level. Yet modern politics faces a crisis of ideas, relevance and trust. The trick is to let markets do their work.

    Ruth Richardson | 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  8. Retirement spending and biological age

    There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that chronological (C) age is dominated by biological (B) age as a better proxy for longevity risk. Practitioners must consider both ages when building portfolios and structuring retirement spending strategies.

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 23-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  9. Investors should hedge their overall financial risk

    People often consider risks in isolation, and overpay for protection as a result. Rather than hedging against specific risks, investors should think like a game theorist.

    Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley | 21-08-17 | More
  10. 2011 Conference: CIF - Modern portfolio construction (Michael Kitces)

    Portfolio construction practitioners have traditionally split into two camps - passive indexers, or active investors aiming to either pick winning companies or fund managers who can identify such companies. In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 Conference, US-based researcher Michael Kitces provided a new and robust framework to understand the opportunities for value creation in portfolios...

    Michael Kitces | 20-08-17 | More
  11. Revealing a client's true preferences

    Game theory, econometrics and distributed computing power can reveal a client's true preferences for risk, loss, uncertainty, time and goals – with scientific precision and in terms that clients can understand.

    Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley | 20-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  12. Asset managers need to build better factors

    Factor indices are a smart way to capture equity market beta. However, investors use factors in pursuit of broader aims.

    Gideon Smith, AXA IM Rosenberg Equities | 17-08-17 | More
  13. Fed balance sheet fears are much ado about nothing

    With US unemployment at a 15-year low, the US Federal Reserve has greater scope to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Investors should set aside their fears, and remember that the Fed’s balance sheet provides little indication about what will happen to longer term interest rates.

    Payden & Rygel | 17-08-17 | More
  14. Active funds will win out in bond markets

    Fund flows suggest that, in aggregate, passive managers are winning the battle against their active peers. But active bond managers have a demonstrable track record of outperformance.

    Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO | 17-08-17 | More
  15. 2011 Conference: DDF - A scenarios approach to asset allocation (Susan Gosling)

    This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, proposes an asset allocation approach that makes more complete use of information available about the future, forcing consideration of different time frames, alternate outcomes, and tail risk...

    MLC | 01-08-17 | More
  16. Achieve client goals with minimum discomfort

    Observing how a client makes financial trade-offs can provide a more accurate measure of their risk preferences than if we ask questions about what they think they would do.

    Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley | 18-07-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  17. Cycles in a low growth world

    In a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate and low yield environment, a cyclical economic upturn presents opportunities in asset classes such as equities and real estate

    Andrew Milligan, Standard Life Investments | 05-07-17 | More
  18. Buy Low, Sell High. It sounds simple but clients need a framework

    Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.

    Douglas Isles | 01-06-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  19. Beware expensive factors

    Investors should keep a close eye on relative valuations. Recent data suggests that momentum and value are trading cheaply in many markets, with low beta substantially over-priced.

    Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates | 30-05-17 | More
  20. Three strategies to manage retirement income uncertainty

    The danger that sequence of return risk can devastate a retirement portfolio is both increasingly recognised and frequently misunderstood. Three research-driven strategies can help manage it.

    Michael Kitces | 22-05-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  21. A Trump slump?

    Trump's election triggered a global stock market upswing, on confidence that he would be able to fulfill his pledge to reignite US economic growth. But how much is Trump really likely to be able to get done?

    Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 18-05-17 | More
  22. People know what to do. They just need to do it!

    Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.

    Joanne Earl, Flinders University | 01-05-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  23. On reflection: Forum retrospectives

    Each February, our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year. Here are the last five years...

    01-05-17 | More
  24. Issues in long-term investing - part 1

    Short-term thinking in finance is nothing new. The benefits of long-term investing extend beyond just being able to invest in illiquid assets. Patience can pay its own dividend.

    Keith Suter, Geoff Warren, Ian Patrick | 10-04-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  25. How will Brexit play out?

    As Britain embarks on the process of disentangling itself from the EU, the country will regain control over national law and policy making, raising opportunities to implement new models.

    Peter Lilley, MP | 28-03-17 | More
  26. A client's life is a mix of stocks & bonds

    It is time to properly account for risk characteristics of client’s most valuable asset - their human capital. This isn’t easy to implement and places practitioners in a difficult situation...

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 24-03-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  27. Impact of manager benchmarking and tracking error

    Requiring investment managers to perform relative to a benchmark, including imposing tracking error constraints, causes short-term'ism.

    Prof Ron Bird & Olivia Engel, CFA | 23-03-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  28. The myth of declining living standards

    Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.

    Woody Brock | 22-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  29. Pain Report - video presentations

    Jonathan Pain, Author of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at PortfolioConstruction Forum's professional development programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 08-03-17 | More
  30. 2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

    Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

    01-03-17 | More
  31. 2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

    Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).

    01-03-17 | More
  32. Mindset/Skillset/Toolset - the trifecta for success

    The key to influencing investors is to have the right mindset, build the right skillset and apply the right toolset.

    Troy Hendrickson, Duke CE | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  33. Focus investors on goals with a retirement spending policy

    A formal, written spending policy can help investors focus on what's really important - will they meet their goals?

    Tim Farrelly | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  34. An investment philosophy is critical

    This workshop will help you develop a clear, communicable, logical and understandable investment philosophy, deciding what's important and what's not.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum and Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 15-02-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  35. Buy Low, Sell High sounds simple but clients need a framework

    Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.

    Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 2 comments | More
  36. The Advice Tipping Point is imminent - panel

    Our panel discusses the steady stream of disruption around the delivery of financial advice.

    Panel | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  37. People know what to do to change their circumstances. They just need to do it!

    Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.

    Joanne Earl, Flinders University | 15-02-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  38. Empathy is the essential skill to survive

    The key trait for relating to investors in the future will be the one skill that our brains are not programmed to receive from a computer - empathy.

    Michael Kitces | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  39. The winds of change and the 4IR

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  40. The Advice Tipping Point is imminent

    Regulatory tailwinds, fee pressure, unbridled experimentation around the delivery of advice - it's a steady stream of disruption. Ironically, technology is both our poison and antidote.

    Stig Nybo | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  41. The winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  42. Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  43. Stereotypes and noise obscure good decisions

    Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.

    Kerr Neilson, Platinum Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  44. Credit - the epicentre of the next crisis

    Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  45. Winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  46. Australian equities portfolios are vulnerable to inflation

    Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.

    Martin Conlon, Schroders | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 4 comments | More
  47. Turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  48. Now is the time to accumulate duration

    As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | More
  49. There are 4 fundamental decisions to make now for portfolios

    When positioning a multi-asset, portfolio for the medium-term, there are four fundamental decisions we must make now. They are, in some cases, interdependent.

    Tim Farrelly | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  50. Australian real estate is in for a soft landing

    A-REITs may face headwinds over the next two years, but total returns will likely remain positive, before returning to a more normal level of 8% to 10% per annum.

    Damien Barrack, Renaissance Asset Management | 14-02-17 | More
  51. The hunt for yield is over

    Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.

    Chris Watling, Longview Economics | 14-02-17 | 2 comments | More
  52. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air"

    The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  53. Rising rates, populism... but infrastructure remains reliable

    For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.

    Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  54. Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans

    Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".
    It's time to rotate into loans!

    Jeffrey Reemer, Invesco | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | More
  55. Australian government bonds can still provide positive returns

    There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  56. Winds of change are driving opportunities in Europe and Korea

    Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.

    Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  57. Caveat Emptor

    A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.

    Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  58. Panel: The winds of change

    Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.

    Panel | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  59. The Winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 4 comments | More
  60. We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error

    2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  61. Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your peril

    With Trump, Brexit, Italy's "No" and China's currency woes, the world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown. Investors should aim for capital preservation until the veil of uncertainty over future policies starts to lift.

    Joachim Fels, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  62. Au government bonds can still provide positive returns

    There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  63. Don't confuse winds of change with "hot air"

    The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  64. Winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More
  65. Populist discontent a danger for markets

    Governments must find a way to reconcile open markets with more evenly distributed income growth, or globalisation may reverse with dire implications for risk assets.

    Jeremy Lawson, Standard Life Investments | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  66. Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty

    2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.

    Stephen Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | More
  67. The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump

    There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  68. The winds of change

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More