The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...

These tutorials relate to the CIMA Cert Exam 2022 tutorials and are available to CIMA candidates currently completing the exam.

Established in 2016, Portfolio Construction Forum Finology Summit is THE behavioural finance ('fin") and investor psychology ("ology") program of the year. It will help you better identify and understand how your own and other people's different investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact investment markets and portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

2022 has been a horrible year for investors. Usually when markets are down 20%, you might feel that the worst of the pain has passed. That's unequivocally wrong. The most dangerous phase of markets is yet to come.

Inflation will not fall back to the pre-Covid 2% level that the US Federal Reserve wants. Two underlying structural changes will keep US inflation at about 4% in the future.

This Research Roundtable focused on the Warakirri Diversified Agriculture strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.

1.50 CE

Rich Pickings explores the investment beliefs and philosophies of prominent professional investors. In this episode, I'm in conversation with Alex Lennard, Investment Director, Ruffer in London...

The latest national census reveals that Australia is a nation determined to change direction. This will re-shape Australia's economic and cultural landscape and influence the way that practitioners build multi-asset portfolios capable of meeting the long-term financial goals of Australians.

As a new age of economic localisation reunites place and prosperity, practitioners must understand the implications for economies and societies - and for portfolio construction.

Rana Foroohar | 0.75 CE

With geopolitical tensions on the rise, portfolio construction practitioners need a framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.

Marko Papic | 0.75 CE

Post Covid, the inflation equation has changed between the East and the West. Diverging monetary policy settings and subsequent future economic growth favour the East in a world where the future ain't what it used to be.

Andrew Swan | 0.50 CE

The future ain't what it used to be – that's just noise. Listed Global REITs provide investors with a competitive return profile and diversification from equities, a compelling reason for allocations in portfolios.

Andrew Parsons | 0.50 CE

The future ain't what it used to be, so capital allocators should look beyond arbitrary benchmarks and combine a thematic universe with the structural benefits of small cap investing.

David Sullivan | 0.50 CE

Practitioners must remain open-minded and continuously challenge their portfolio construction beliefs, techniques and tools. This session addressed three contemporary portfolio construction issues: We must use a risk-based framework for portfolio design; The value rotation has just begun; and, ESG ratings undervalue climate solutions…

The case for investment-grade corporate bonds replacing traditional sovereigns as a core allocation is strengthening with the income opportunity of this sub-asset class being the brightest it's been in years.

Harry Phinney | 0.50 CE

The regime has changed. We know from experience that diversified portfolios are robust in a disinflationary world. But some portfolios may not be so robust in an inflationary world. The future is definitely not what it used to be.

Al Clark | 0.50 CE

If the question is how to achieve an attractive risk-adjusted return through all economic environments, then private debt is the answer. The future ain’t what it used to be - except for private debt.

Andrew Lockhart | 0.50 CE

There is increasing traction for the idea that, to succeed in today's complex, uncertain world of investing, practitioners must embrace alternative investment strategies. But are they all they're made out to be?

Investors began 2022 in bullish form however rising inflation concerns combined with Russia's invasion of Ukraine soon soured the mood. More than ever, practitioners need to understand the key secular and structural forces impacting on markets and the portfolio construction implications.

In stage two of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, three economists describe and debate three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.

The seismic shift in economic, social and political themes means the future ain't what it used to be – rendering the 60/40 portfolio inadequate.

Razvan Remsing | 0.50 CE

Investing and engaging for change, committing to tackling the climate-related risks that threaten the future of the planet is our duty or our future ain't what it used to be!

Ecaterina Bigos | 0.50 CE

Private equity as an asset class is one of the longest-term strategies. Setting up a solid top-down framework is key to successful private equity portfolio construction.

Pauline Wetter | 0.50 CE

In this third step of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, a diverse panel of asset class experts debates the implications of the three economic scenarios outlined in the Economic Scenarios Roundtable for medium-term (three years) asset class returns.

Our asset allocation consultants explain the asset allocation implications of the three Economic Scenarios and blended portfolio, and debate how best to implement the portfolio.

Infrastructure's unique inflation hedge characteristics protect companies and investors while allowing a tailwind of asset base growth to drive long-term total returns.

Shane Hurst | 0.50 CE

Decarbonisation of the economy is the most important thematic of the next 30 years. The future ain't what it used to be! Investors can achieve net-zero portfolios without compromising returns or increasing risk by using "green shorts".

David Allen | 0.50 CE

Sustainable investing is booming - and sustainable investors need to align their strategies with sustainable development ambitions. The Sustainable Development Goals provide a valuable blueprint.

Portfolio construction requires precarious navigation in an ever-changing world. Only when we adapt our skillsets and reframe our perspectives can we understand why things are happening and capture upcoming opportunities.

This Research Roundtable focused on the Warakirri Global Emerging Markets strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.

1.50 CE

A whole-brain approach to portfolio construction requires a combination of knowledge, skill and expertise across the technical, analytical "fundamental" topics AND the human factors is essential for better quality portfolios.

The theory of cognitive dissonance was proposed in the 1930s by psychologist Leon Festinger. Understanding how cognitive dissonance can bias our investment decision making, and recognising when our behaviour is being driven by it, is vital.

Herman Brodie | 0.75 CE

This Research Roundtable focused on the Fidelity Global Future Leaders strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.

1.50 CE

Established in 2002, Strategies Conference is THE portfolio construction strategies conference of the year. Presented each August, the program features 50+ carefully selected leading investment thinkers who will challenge and refresh your portfolio construction thinking by debating contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, for you to consider applying in practice to build better quality portfolios.

As policymakers begin to craft a new Bretton Woods, and seek to embed the values that liberal democracies want to uphold, practitioners must understand the implications for portfolios.

Rana Foroohar | 0.50 CE

The next 10 years are likely to be dramatically different than the last 10 years, and investors will need allocations to alternative investments in this challenging environment.

Tony Davidow | 0.50 CE

Prolonged exposure to high volatility causes investors to subsequently underestimate volatility (and vice versa), leading to predictability in stock returns - and the ability to construct a trading strategy that exploits the effect.

We must take a multi-factor approach to analysing funds – including ESG, Quality, Size, amongst others – to ensure portfolios reflect the investor's longer-term philosophy and/or shorter term views.

Michael Furey | 0.50 CE

Jonathan Pain, Author and Publisher of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at Portfolio Construction Forum's continuing education programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing "The days of abnormal monetary policy are over", Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered a food and energy crisis while declining consumer sentiment and Chinese lockdowns provide headwinds to growth.

This Research Roundtable focused on the Lazard Emerging Markets Total Return Debt strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.

1.50 CE

Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing it was time for a new investing playbook, there has been a major repricing in financial assets. The adjustment has further to run.

With stock market valuations close to record highs, and interest rates beginning to rise from all-time lows, traditional portfolios are likely to disappoint in the years ahead.

Thomas Weber | 0.25 CE

These tutorials relate to the IMAC 2022 lectures and are available to CIMA candidates currently completing the Investment Managment Analyst Certificate course.

Real US Treasury yields collapsed from 7% to -6% between 1981 and 2021, yet most people fail to understand why. Understanding changes in real rates is crucial to forecasting nominal interest rates, and the outlook for asset prices.

Rich Pickings explores the investment beliefs and philosophies of prominent professional investors. In this episode, I'm in conversation with Hari Balkrishna, Portfolio Manager - Global Impact Equity Strategy, T. Rowe Price.

farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...

This Research Roundtable focused on the Aspect Capital Diversified Futures strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.

1.50 CE

In 2022, emerging markets are poised to outperform the developed world, as Western policymakers tighten monetary policy and withdraw fiscal stimulus. Portfolios should be reallocated to those parts of the world that are beneficiaries of this macroeconomic backdrop.

With interest rates near historical lows and asset prices around all-time highs, practitioners are grappling with the defensive side of multi-asset portfolios. In team sports, offensive players typically get the glory, but it’s a robust defence that wins games. More than ever, practitioners need to ensure that the defensive side of multi-asset portfolios is match fit, if they are to meet the long-term investment objectives of clients. The best offence is a great defence!

With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

Is there such a thing as normal? Steady states are becoming increasingly rare, the belief in 'reversion to the mean' is less relevant than ever and, ultimately, investors are better placed focusing long-term change.

Robert Wilson | 0.25 CE

Investing over the next several years is going to be unlike anything we've experienced in decades. It's time to go back to the drawing board to reassess the best approach to both defence and offence in a more volatile, changing market.

Ronald Temple | 0.50 CE

Unlike the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis is occurring in an inflationary macro context. As in 2014, increasing exposures to wheat and gold to hedge against the risk of higher inflation is a strategy that should perform strongly.

As we shift to a bipolar or tripolar world, in which the US and China decouple more rapidly, and Europe lives somewhere in the middle, we must seek to understand the implications for asset classes, sectors and geographies.

Investors shouldn't overlook the potential benefits of focusing on companies in the energy sector. It looks like what's "old" will be “new” again.

Rajiv Jain | 0.50 CE

Over the long-term, dividend growth and dividend yield are the dominant sources of long-term return. Valuation's importance recedes over time. Sustainable dividend growth companies appear to play defence well.

David Keir | 0.25 CE

In a world of rising yields, fixed income investors must know that what's worked in the past might not work going forward. A braver and broader approach is required, by going on the offensive in fixed income.

Joran Laird | 0.50 CE

All the indicia of a colossal equities bubble are in place. But there is a lot to own for the next five years if you are prepared to go where the crowd is thinnest, allowing you to be on offense as you defend your clients' portfolios.

Julian McCormack | 0.50 CE

Investors may be facing a regime shift in markets that changes the traditional relationship between growth and defensive allocations. In a low conviction world, an allocation to a blend of public and private credit makes sense.

Pete Robinson | 0.50 CE

Global microcaps offer investors an unparalleled opportunity to invest in economic or market recoveries. Global microcaps' asymmetry around large market events provides investors with a powerful offence that is a great portfolio defence.

Gino Rossi | 0.50 CE

The game has changed - the 2010s is the wrong analogue for the 2020s. DIG in for an important era, when stakeholder capitalism displaces shareholder capitalism and becomes the main route to boosting shareholder value.

Tony Crescenzi | 0.50 CE

The next decade of decarbonisation is the decade of opportunity to de-risk portfolios and identify green investments. Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations. Key to success is the need for portfolios to account for climate change risk or risk being obsolete.

Michael Salvatico | 0.25 CE

Rising interest rates will create casualties and collateral damage in asset prices, but will bring back market discipline, requiring a rethink of what "defensive" even means.

Richard Quin | 0.50 CE

In achieving longer term objectives, climate change demands both a defensive strategy to mitigate longer term risks and an offensive, tactical, approach to capitalising on opportunities.

Tom King | 0.50 CE

A great attack scores points, but defence wins premierships. The same principal applies to investment portfolios. By making private debt the centre of a defensive strategy, investors can win in all conditions.

Andrew Lockhart | 0.50 CE

Inflection points in inflation, interest rates and the large-scale monetary distortion of recent decades suggest the future will not repeat the same playbook as recent decades.

Martin Conlon | 0.50 CE

A new market regime demands a change to the art of portfolio construction. The return of inflation volatility represents the most challenging and significant paradigm shift in decades.

Many expect that the end of the pandemic, reopening of economies, tight labour markets and excess consumer savings will push markets higher. Proceed with caution, the best offence is a great defence.

Arvid Streimann | 0.50 CE

Record low interest rates have fundamentally changed the playbook for income investors. With banks withdrawing from the CRE debt market, other lenders have greater opportunity.

Nick Bullick | 0.25 CE

Although traditional barriers to participation in PE are fading, PE remains on the bench for many individual investors. With an end to easy value creation and challenging conditions ahead, don't miss out on PE outperformance in 2022.

Martin Cox | 0.50 CE

Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2022 resonated most strongly, and which they disagreed with most - and the portfolio construction implications.

Expert Panel | 0.50 CE

Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features a Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) in the context of the program theme.

The past half-century brought about a world that's globalised, centralised, and stratified. Now, the pendulum is swinging the other way. Everywhere, a new economic order is taking shape as we enter an era of more inclusive and sustainable localisation, bringing wealth back home. As we shift to a bipolar or tripolar world, practitioners must understand the implications for different asset classes, sectors and geographies.

Our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...

Classical economists often incorporated human behaviour into their thinking. But in the 1960s and 1970s, homo economicus - the great rational agent of economic theory - was born. It was not until the 1990s that the link between human behaviour and economics began to be re-established. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the evolution of economic thinking, concluding that, with the link between human behaviour and economics being re-established, economics has come full circle.

Herman Brodie | 0.25 CE

How we organise information in our heads, evaluate it, give it weight and then store it in our memories impacts our decisions. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture looks at the concept of the schema, a mental model of the world we use to swiftly understand incoming information.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

The ability of prospect theory to explain many observations in both investing and everyday decision-making made it an incredibly powerful approach in economics. But that wasn't enough to allow it to challenge 'expected utility theory'. To do that it needed to consider the way in which people evaluate probabilities. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews prospect theory, the disposition effect, and expected utility theory.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

Cognitive dissonance theory can explain our motivation to seek the information that drives our choices. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the theory of cognitive dissonance and the mental discomfort that results from holding conflicting beliefs, values or attitudes, that can explain our motivation to seek the information that drives our choices.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

Standard finance assumes that economic agents discount the future exponentially - yet the original proponents of Discounted Utility Theory conceded that human beings do not act that way. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews what researchers have discovered about intertemporal choice, the process by which people make decisions about what and how much to do at various points in time, when choices at one time influence the possibilities available at other points in time.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

Stopping losses, exposing ourselves to information that goes against our beliefs, not indulging story-tellers, facing hard truths about our past decisions - all these things detract from our comfort. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture provides 10 recommendations for improving investment decision-making, drawing on the learnings from Lectures 1 to 5.

Herman Brodie | 0.25 CE

Two of the most important practical implications of prospect theory in asset pricing are the existence of price momentum, and investors' preferences for skewness in the distribution of returns. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews explains why these phenomena persist and practical ways they can be exploited.

Herman Brodie | 1.00 CE

We like to think our beliefs are the result of a long, thoughtful evaluation, the product of carefully curated information and our personal experiences. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reveals the origins of many of our beliefs, and shows what we can do to make our belief-building more robust.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

When should I retire? Will I be happy? How long will I live? Our responses to questions like these are prone to systematic biases that influence our choices and, ultimately, life satisfaction in retirement. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture focuses on the behavioural influences on decision making about the transition from the workforce into retirement.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

Why is it that a client selects one asset manager over another? And why are some asset managers retained during the challenging periods in the cycle and others are not? Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture concerns the science of trust, revealing what really causes trust to be built over time.

Herman Brodie | 0.75 CE

Advisers, not clients, are responsible for the creation of a high-trust relationships. But when does interpersonal trust building become selfish manipulation? Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the ethical limits to advisers' actions to build and maintain trust with clients.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

As for other life outcomes, personality types are useful in explaining personal finance outcomes such as wealth accumulation, retirement planning, spending, compulsive consumption, indebtedness, and risk-taking. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture explores the link between personality and individual preferences for communication, information-seeking, and susceptibility to persuasion.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

Greater career success is the reward for individuals who see Diversity and Inclusion as a skill to be learned. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture examines the hurdles to progress towards a genuinely inclusive workplace from a behavioural perspective.

Herman Brodie | 0.75 CE

The typical carrot-and-stick approach to ethics assumes that people faced with ethical dilemmas conduct a conscious, deliberate, cost-benefit analysis before making decisions. Yet, the behavioural sciences have shown us that our decision-making is often non-conscious and automatic. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture examines insights from the behavioural sciences that can help us adhere to our stated ethical principles.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

People attach great importance to their social connections. Yet, this social goal will not always dovetail with groups securing the best possible decision. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture examines how we can improve group activity to help ensure dedication to the organisational objective becomes precisely the route by which we achieve social rewards.

Herman Brodie | 0.50 CE

As governments become accustomed to spending vast sums of money and workers regain their bargaining power, the short-term inflationary pressures attributed to Covid-19 will bleed into a longer period of higher inflation.

Fiscal stimulus will help boost US growth to its strongest levels in decades in 2022 and European economies are poised to rebound. However, inflationary pressures will persist. Portfolios will need assets that provide downside protection, as well as strategies to capitalise on the growth ahead.