2022 has been a horrible year for investors. Usually when markets are down 20%, you might feel that the worst of the pain has passed. That's unequivocally wrong. The most dangerous phase of markets is yet to come.
Inflation will not fall back to the pre-Covid 2% level that the US Federal Reserve wants. Two underlying structural changes will keep US inflation at about 4% in the future.
This Research Roundtable focused on the Warakirri Diversified Agriculture strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.
The latest national census reveals that Australia is a nation determined to change direction. This will re-shape Australia's economic and cultural landscape and influence the way that practitioners build multi-asset portfolios capable of meeting the long-term financial goals of Australians.
Post Covid, the inflation equation has changed between the East and the West. Diverging monetary policy settings and subsequent future economic growth favour the East in a world where the future ain't what it used to be.
The future ain't what it used to be – that's just noise. Listed Global REITs provide investors with a competitive return profile and diversification from equities, a compelling reason for allocations in portfolios.
The future ain't what it used to be, so capital allocators should look beyond arbitrary benchmarks and combine a thematic universe with the structural benefits of small cap investing.
Practitioners must remain open-minded and continuously challenge their portfolio construction beliefs, techniques and tools. This session addressed three contemporary portfolio construction issues: We must use a risk-based framework for portfolio design; The value rotation has just begun; and, ESG ratings undervalue climate solutions…
The case for investment-grade corporate bonds replacing traditional sovereigns as a core allocation is strengthening with the income opportunity of this sub-asset class being the brightest it's been in years.
There is increasing traction for the idea that, to succeed in today's complex, uncertain world of investing, practitioners must embrace alternative investment strategies. But are they all they're made out to be?
Investors began 2022 in bullish form however rising inflation concerns combined with Russia's invasion of Ukraine soon soured the mood. More than ever, practitioners need to understand the key secular and structural forces impacting on markets and the portfolio construction implications.
In stage two of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, three economists describe and debate three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
The seismic shift in economic, social and political themes means the future ain't what it used to be – rendering the 60/40 portfolio inadequate.
Private equity as an asset class is one of the longest-term strategies. Setting up a solid top-down framework is key to successful private equity portfolio construction.
In this third step of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, a diverse panel of asset class experts debates the implications of the three economic scenarios outlined in the Economic Scenarios Roundtable for medium-term (three years) asset class returns.
Our asset allocation consultants explain the asset allocation implications of the three Economic Scenarios and blended portfolio, and debate how best to implement the portfolio.
Infrastructure's unique inflation hedge characteristics protect companies and investors while allowing a tailwind of asset base growth to drive long-term total returns.
Decarbonisation of the economy is the most important thematic of the next 30 years. The future ain't what it used to be! Investors can achieve net-zero portfolios without compromising returns or increasing risk by using "green shorts".
Sustainable investing is booming - and sustainable investors need to align their strategies with sustainable development ambitions. The Sustainable Development Goals provide a valuable blueprint.
Portfolio construction requires precarious navigation in an ever-changing world. Only when we adapt our skillsets and reframe our perspectives can we understand why things are happening and capture upcoming opportunities.
This Research Roundtable focused on the Warakirri Global Emerging Markets strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.
A whole-brain approach to portfolio construction requires a combination of knowledge, skill and expertise across the technical, analytical "fundamental" topics AND the human factors is essential for better quality portfolios.
The theory of cognitive dissonance was proposed in the 1930s by psychologist Leon Festinger. Understanding how cognitive dissonance can bias our investment decision making, and recognising when our behaviour is being driven by it, is vital.
This Research Roundtable focused on the Fidelity Global Future Leaders strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.
As policymakers begin to craft a new Bretton Woods, and seek to embed the values that liberal democracies want to uphold, practitioners must understand the implications for portfolios.
The next 10 years are likely to be dramatically different than the last 10 years, and investors will need allocations to alternative investments in this challenging environment.
Prolonged exposure to high volatility causes investors to subsequently underestimate volatility (and vice versa), leading to predictability in stock returns - and the ability to construct a trading strategy that exploits the effect.
Jonathan Pain, Author and Publisher of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at Portfolio Construction Forum's continuing education programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...
Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing "The days of abnormal monetary policy are over", Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered a food and energy crisis while declining consumer sentiment and Chinese lockdowns provide headwinds to growth.
This Research Roundtable focused on the Lazard Emerging Markets Total Return Debt strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.
These tutorials relate to the IMAC 2022 lectures and are available to CIMA candidates currently completing the Investment Managment Analyst Certificate course.
Real US Treasury yields collapsed from 7% to -6% between 1981 and 2021, yet most people fail to understand why. Understanding changes in real rates is crucial to forecasting nominal interest rates, and the outlook for asset prices.
This Research Roundtable focused on the Aspect Capital Diversified Futures strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is truncated and published for on-demand viewing by all Forum members.
In 2022, emerging markets are poised to outperform the developed world, as Western policymakers tighten monetary policy and withdraw fiscal stimulus. Portfolios should be reallocated to those parts of the world that are beneficiaries of this macroeconomic backdrop.
With interest rates near historical lows and asset prices around all-time highs, practitioners are grappling with the defensive side of multi-asset portfolios. In team sports, offensive players typically get the glory, but it’s a robust defence that wins games. More than ever, practitioners need to ensure that the defensive side of multi-asset portfolios is match fit, if they are to meet the long-term investment objectives of clients. The best offence is a great defence!
With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.
Is there such a thing as normal? Steady states are becoming increasingly rare, the belief in 'reversion to the mean' is less relevant than ever and, ultimately, investors are better placed focusing long-term change.
Investing over the next several years is going to be unlike anything we've experienced in decades. It's time to go back to the drawing board to reassess the best approach to both defence and offence in a more volatile, changing market.
Unlike the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis is occurring in an inflationary macro context. As in 2014, increasing exposures to wheat and gold to hedge against the risk of higher inflation is a strategy that should perform strongly.
Investors shouldn't overlook the potential benefits of focusing on companies in the energy sector. It looks like what's "old" will be “new” again.
Over the long-term, dividend growth and dividend yield are the dominant sources of long-term return. Valuation's importance recedes over time. Sustainable dividend growth companies appear to play defence well.
In a world of rising yields, fixed income investors must know that what's worked in the past might not work going forward. A braver and broader approach is required, by going on the offensive in fixed income.
All the indicia of a colossal equities bubble are in place. But there is a lot to own for the next five years if you are prepared to go where the crowd is thinnest, allowing you to be on offense as you defend your clients' portfolios.
Investors may be facing a regime shift in markets that changes the traditional relationship between growth and defensive allocations. In a low conviction world, an allocation to a blend of public and private credit makes sense.
Global microcaps offer investors an unparalleled opportunity to invest in economic or market recoveries. Global microcaps' asymmetry around large market events provides investors with a powerful offence that is a great portfolio defence.
The game has changed - the 2010s is the wrong analogue for the 2020s. DIG in for an important era, when stakeholder capitalism displaces shareholder capitalism and becomes the main route to boosting shareholder value.
The next decade of decarbonisation is the decade of opportunity to de-risk portfolios and identify green investments. Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations. Key to success is the need for portfolios to account for climate change risk or risk being obsolete.
Rising interest rates will create casualties and collateral damage in asset prices, but will bring back market discipline, requiring a rethink of what "defensive" even means.
In achieving longer term objectives, climate change demands both a defensive strategy to mitigate longer term risks and an offensive, tactical, approach to capitalising on opportunities.
A great attack scores points, but defence wins premierships. The same principal applies to investment portfolios. By making private debt the centre of a defensive strategy, investors can win in all conditions.
A new market regime demands a change to the art of portfolio construction. The return of inflation volatility represents the most challenging and significant paradigm shift in decades.
Many expect that the end of the pandemic, reopening of economies, tight labour markets and excess consumer savings will push markets higher. Proceed with caution, the best offence is a great defence.
Although traditional barriers to participation in PE are fading, PE remains on the bench for many individual investors. With an end to easy value creation and challenging conditions ahead, don't miss out on PE outperformance in 2022.
Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2022 resonated most strongly, and which they disagreed with most - and the portfolio construction implications.
The past half-century brought about a world that's globalised, centralised, and stratified. Now, the pendulum is swinging the other way. Everywhere, a new economic order is taking shape as we enter an era of more inclusive and sustainable localisation, bringing wealth back home. As we shift to a bipolar or tripolar world, practitioners must understand the implications for different asset classes, sectors and geographies.
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Classical economists often incorporated human behaviour into their thinking. But in the 1960s and 1970s, homo economicus - the great rational agent of economic theory - was born. It was not until the 1990s that the link between human behaviour and economics began to be re-established. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the evolution of economic thinking, concluding that, with the link between human behaviour and economics being re-established, economics has come full circle.
How we organise information in our heads, evaluate it, give it weight and then store it in our memories impacts our decisions. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture looks at the concept of the schema, a mental model of the world we use to swiftly understand incoming information.
The ability of prospect theory to explain many observations in both investing and everyday decision-making made it an incredibly powerful approach in economics. But that wasn't enough to allow it to challenge 'expected utility theory'. To do that it needed to consider the way in which people evaluate probabilities. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews prospect theory, the disposition effect, and expected utility theory.
Cognitive dissonance theory can explain our motivation to seek the information that drives our choices. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the theory of cognitive dissonance and the mental discomfort that results from holding conflicting beliefs, values or attitudes, that can explain our motivation to seek the information that drives our choices.
Standard finance assumes that economic agents discount the future exponentially - yet the original proponents of Discounted Utility Theory conceded that human beings do not act that way. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews what researchers have discovered about intertemporal choice, the process by which people make decisions about what and how much to do at various points in time, when choices at one time influence the possibilities available at other points in time.
Stopping losses, exposing ourselves to information that goes against our beliefs, not indulging story-tellers, facing hard truths about our past decisions - all these things detract from our comfort. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture provides 10 recommendations for improving investment decision-making, drawing on the learnings from Lectures 1 to 5.
Two of the most important practical implications of prospect theory in asset pricing are the existence of price momentum, and investors' preferences for skewness in the distribution of returns. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews explains why these phenomena persist and practical ways they can be exploited.
We like to think our beliefs are the result of a long, thoughtful evaluation, the product of carefully curated information and our personal experiences. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reveals the origins of many of our beliefs, and shows what we can do to make our belief-building more robust.
When should I retire? Will I be happy? How long will I live? Our responses to questions like these are prone to systematic biases that influence our choices and, ultimately, life satisfaction in retirement. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture focuses on the behavioural influences on decision making about the transition from the workforce into retirement.
Why is it that a client selects one asset manager over another? And why are some asset managers retained during the challenging periods in the cycle and others are not? Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture concerns the science of trust, revealing what really causes trust to be built over time.
Advisers, not clients, are responsible for the creation of a high-trust relationships. But when does interpersonal trust building become selfish manipulation? Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture reviews the ethical limits to advisers' actions to build and maintain trust with clients.
As for other life outcomes, personality types are useful in explaining personal finance outcomes such as wealth accumulation, retirement planning, spending, compulsive consumption, indebtedness, and risk-taking. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture explores the link between personality and individual preferences for communication, information-seeking, and susceptibility to persuasion.
Greater career success is the reward for individuals who see Diversity and Inclusion as a skill to be learned. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture examines the hurdles to progress towards a genuinely inclusive workplace from a behavioural perspective.
The typical carrot-and-stick approach to ethics assumes that people faced with ethical dilemmas conduct a conscious, deliberate, cost-benefit analysis before making decisions. Yet, the behavioural sciences have shown us that our decision-making is often non-conscious and automatic. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture examines insights from the behavioural sciences that can help us adhere to our stated ethical principles.
People attach great importance to their social connections. Yet, this social goal will not always dovetail with groups securing the best possible decision. Part of the Finology short course, Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making, this lecture examines how we can improve group activity to help ensure dedication to the organisational objective becomes precisely the route by which we achieve social rewards.
As governments become accustomed to spending vast sums of money and workers regain their bargaining power, the short-term inflationary pressures attributed to Covid-19 will bleed into a longer period of higher inflation.
Fiscal stimulus will help boost US growth to its strongest levels in decades in 2022 and European economies are poised to rebound. However, inflationary pressures will persist. Portfolios will need assets that provide downside protection, as well as strategies to capitalise on the growth ahead.