There are no steady states so focus on long-term change

Robert Wilson  |  Baillie Gifford  |  23 February 2022 |  0.25 CE

In times of rapid change, the temptation is to grasp the familiar, seek certainty and hunker down until ‘normality’ returns. But the question should be, ‘is there such a thing as normal?’ Short-term regularities are often dominated by long-term trends, such that short-term theory is often unhelpful for navigating uncertainty. Steady states are becoming increasingly rare, the belief in ‘reversion to the mean’ is less relevant than ever and, ultimately, investors are better placed focusing on the main game – long-term change driven by the real economy and real innova...

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