Secular stagnation or inflection point?

A historical perspective on the post-crisis world

The following presentation was delivered at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016, the theme of which was "facilitating debate on the markets, strategies and investing".

Synopsis

With a growing number of central banks resorting to negative interest rates and the IMF acknowledging the risk of "secular stagnation" in its latest World Economic Outlook, investors could be forgiven for feeling nervous. Yet there is some evidence that the global economy may be at an inflection point - the kind of change that is hard to spot when it is happening, but in retrospect seems obvious. Stagnation seems hard to escape from in Japan and some European economies, but elsewhere the post-crisis inflection point might just have arrived.

Presenter

Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, Harvard University & Stanford University
- brought to you by PortfolioConstruction Forum in association with The National Business Review

Presentation (recorded 17 May 2016)

Prof. Ferguson's presentation has been broken into five chapters, for ease of viewing. The first is available to all viewers with our compliments. To watch the rest, all you need to do is become a PortfolioConstruction Forum Member (membership is quick and free). Join now.
1. The global economy is at an inflection point (15 minutes)
2. Further evidence the secular stagnation thesis is wrong (15 minutes)
3. Five key risks that could derail the recovery (19 minutes)
4. Q&A Panel (30 minutes)
5. Thanks (6 minutes)

 Chapter 1:  The global economy is at an inflection point (15 mins)

Slides     Podcast