PIMCO founder and co-CIO, Bill Gross, has recently appending the even drearier modifier "minus" to his "new normal" moniker. He explains why, and the implications for those building portfolios...
2011 was a watershed year for the New Zealand financial advisory industry, as the regulation rubber hit the road. Our financialalert Person of the Year 2011 stood out for his enthusiastic, energetic leadership at a time when many advisers were struggling with the additional demands the introduction of regulation has brought as well as the challenging market environment...
We might wish our clients’ investment journeys will invariably be beautiful experiences - but we know that things will turn ugly from time to time. How do we prepare our clients for the ugly times? What do they need to know?
A soft landing in China is beginning to look like wishful thinking. The investment v consumption imbalance has only worsened...
It's 10 years since Jim O'Neill - a regular speaker at PortfolioConstruction Forum - coined the term 'BRIC'. These BBC podcasts look at what's ahead for the BRIC economies...
With regulation taking hold, many adviser practices are simply not as profitable to operate as they use to be - and some may be asking themselves if this is a good time to exit. But holding out for another five years may well pay off...
Most emerging countries were able to counter an economic slowdown in developed countries in 2008-09. Can this scenario be repeated?
Dushko Bajic, portfolio manager with Australian equities manager, Orion Asset Management, discusses the risk-on, risk-off trades that are rolling through the market, which stocks offer the best prospects, and the "expensive defensives" best avoided...
We asked the fund research houses - how much (if any) of an international equities allocation should be hedged, assuming a 10-year investment timeframe?
This Academy Seminar debates the following three topics in a Socratic learning environment: Investment fables - part 1; Scenarios and their investment implications - part 2; and, Hot topic: Greece is the word - but what are the investment implications?
Will the Euro exist in ten years? Why doesn't Germany leave the EMU? How will Euro confidence improve? What structural changes must occur in Australia? Do free markets work? Will QE3 actually help? Has the world reached the limits of GDP growth?
We asked the fund research houses - should all portfolios be ‘overweight’ to emerging market equities? If so, overweight to what?
This white paper contends that investment in emerging market sovereign debt continues to look attractive and investors should carefully consider adding emerging market sovereign bonds to their asset allocations and revisit the proportional weighting of the asset class as it continues to mature...
In this closing keynote Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Jonathan Pain looks at the where the Middle East is heading in the years to come, and the investment implications...
The 2011 Portfolio Construction Forum Conference helped delegates better understand the key macro AND micro issues and what they mean for investor portfolios, to help them successfully navigate through the woods AND the trees. In this final Critical Issues Forum session, selected PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy members, Longview's Chris Watling and Tim Farrelly, principal of farrelly's Investment Strategy, give their key takeouts from the two-day program...
In this first half of this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Jim O'Neill - inventor of the BRIC concept and acronym - gave an exclusive update on his view of the BRIC economies and the emergence of other growth economies...
In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Amanda Gillespie, of fund research house Lonsec, provides a practical guide to integrating EM exposures in portfolios, including whether an active or passive approach is best, and what type of exposure is appropriate for different investors...
The debt side of portfolios used to be the easy part of portfolio construction, but not these days. In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Tim Farrelly outlines a systematic and practical process for constructing the debt side of portfolios and shows how considerable value can be added and demonstrated clearly to investors...
In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Dr Michael Hasenstab looks at how monetary policy and geopolitical events are impacting the challenges and opportunities facing global bond investors. Chris Watling then argues we're in a long-term, secular equities bear cycle, and what that means for equities investing...
Why China's leaders will struggle to maintain economic growth (the main source of Communist Party legitimacy) while managing the growing expectations of its population...
Harvard Business School's Dr Niall Ferguson of "The Ascent of Money" fame, discusses what he believes lies ahead - the key macro AND micro issues and what they mean for investor portfolios - to successfully navigate through the woods AND the trees...
In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Peter Elston looks at to the appropriate use of active share to measure how active an active fund manager REALLY is, before Scott Bennett re-visits the case for active management and the characteristics that can help discern skill from luck...
In this Critical Issues Forum session at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Del Stafford highlights highlights the current and emerging applications of ETFs in portfolios. Scott Burns discusses the intricacies of ETFs as they move farther away from the ETFs that typify the Australian ETF landscape...
Dr Woody Brock, Alan Brown (Schroders), Gregor Andrade (AQR Capital), Hamish Douglass (Magellan), Chris Selth (Five Oceans) and Chris Watling (Longview), discuss the key macro and micro issues we cannot of afford to lose sight of when constructing portfolios...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, provides a definition of the alternatives category and a logical framework to appreciate the characteristics of these investments, and guidance as to appropriate weightings in a diversified portfolio...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that key attributes of infrastructure assets have led to its inclusion within portfolios and that while infrastructure can be considered separate asset class, there is a clear link to the economy...
How to define a concentrated fund and identify whether or not it is really active, whether volatility is bad - and why the focus of risk should be heavily weighted to idiosyncratic risk...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, analyses the various methods and strategies which can be used to deliver outperformance in any commercial property...
The world has changed – no longer can you generate big returns in small caps from simple bottom up stock picking. This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that small cap managers must address today’s macro issues to generate tomorrow’s growth...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, looks at a number of factors that must be considered when looking at offshore credit and fixed income investing...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that consideration should be given to adding downside protection qualities to a portfolio via an investment in a hybrid of listed and unlisted infrastructure...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, explores the three most common post-retirement issues and argues that an equities allocation can be modified to provide a better balance than alternative strategies that just focus on high yielding stocks to arrive at a strategy better-suited to today’s retirees...
The allure of high cash deposit rates against current low inflation is strong - however, on a longer-term view, cash is unlikely to meet client requirements. This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, discusses how to actively manage the trade-off between the risk and return of different asset classes in an uncertain economic environment...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, highlights the knowledge needed to approach the commodities asset class, and examines macroeconomic and long-term drivers of prices within the sector...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that risk factors underpinning classic hedge fund trading strategies - hedge fund risk premia - are investable and can enhance portfolio construction and risk management...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 Conference, argues short-duration bonds are attractive during rising interest rate periods, offering potential for inflation protection and a yield advantage over cash and other low duration assets...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, examines how to boost returns on portfolios using liquid strategies available to Australian investors, and concludes with a take on asset allocation that is radically different from that practiced currently...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that the Australian bond market continues to provide a reliable real return with relatively low volatility, and asks 'are we deep in the woods or is there a way out?'
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that investors must consider the merits of a “pure” direct exposure to emerging markets in their global opportunity set...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, examines various equity portfolio risk strategies, such as stock-specific risk management and hedging techniques, and whether diversification is still an effective risk management tool...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that as emerging markets wages increase significantly, core CPI in many developed world economies will rise, forcing central banks to revisit interest rate settings - and therefore, positioning portfolios for the prospect of rising inflation is critical...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that China's path to growth is unsustainable, and highlights which economies, sectors and industries in the Asia Pacific region will benefit most from China's transformation and which will be most at risk...
This Due Diligence Forum Research Paper, presented at the 2011 PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, argues that short-termism is a pandemic that continues to flourish unchecked within financial markets, resulting in significant long-term economic costs to investors...
The debt side of portfolios used to be the easy part of portfolio construction - but not these days! This Sector Insight summarises key themes and ratings from the recent Australian fixed interest sector review by Standard & Poor's Fund Services...
This month has brought some of the most turbulent times in the history of investment markets. What does it mean for those managing investor portfolios?
We asked the fund houses: What are the top 5 quant analytics practitioners should always consider and why?
We're facing a very complicated, rich and interesting landscape. For investors, distinguishing the woods from the trees is going to be very difficult - but will pay well because of that difficulty...
Following the challenging period of the GFC, significant doubts arose as to the core value premise of FOHF products. This Sector Insight summarises the key themes and ratings from the recent review of the sector...
There are three key reasons why it is prudent to reduce commodities allocations and redistribute some of that allocation into equities - and in particular, western equities...
In the past few weeks, it's become clear that Italy must now be included in the group of submerging economies - and that portfolios should become more cautious and defensive...
We asked: What, in your firm's view, is one of the big challenges facing the Australian funds research industry at present?
A concise update on the challenges for global fixed income markets over the next six months, including the US and European debt situation, and rising inflation in emerging markets...
Is there any evidence to support the use of active international equities funds in portfolios? Plus, the growth of emerging markets allocations, and the rise of fundamental risk management...
Australian residential property does not behave like other investment classes. Why? And what does that mean for forecasting returns?
We asked the research houses: What are the key risks your firm assesses when rating funds / products / capabilities - and why?
The Academy Winter Seminar 2011 debates the following three topics in a Socratic learning environment: How to build a framework for assessment of niche exposures in a portfolio; How to incorporate value strategies in equity portfolios; and, How to analyse investment scenarios and their implications for portfolios...
Post 1 July, New Zealand's financial advisers will be held to far greater account for the portfolios they build for clients - and this comes at a time when global investment markets are more volatile than at any other time in the past 20 years, and likely to remain so for years. Investment Symposium 2011 will help you better understand the pillars for building better quality investor portfolios...
How should we think about risk in portfolios? I put that question to a cross-section of prominent advisers, authors and academics. Their answers encompassed diverse opinions and underscored how crucial that question is to the investment process...
We asked the research houses: What asset classes / product types does your firm include under the 'alternatives' label? Why? How many strategies/funds do you rate in each?
Is this the time to be buying or selling international equities?
Fueling fears of a China bubble is the rapid rise in prices of its residential property market in many of its key cities. Structurally, however, while residential house prices may be vulnerable near term, over the long term, the uptrend would appear to be underpinned...
The Academy Autumn Seminar 2011 will debate the following three topics in a Socratic learning environment: How to judge whether a manager will or has added value; Is investing post-retirement different?; and, How to spot global trends and draw investment inferences from them...
The question of whether China is a bubble is critical for strategic asset allocation, for the outlook for emerging markets, for the future strength of global economic growth, and in determining how much longer the commodity super cycle is likely to continue...
The final session of the Markets Summit 2011 saw our specialists return to stage for a vigorous debate about the prospects for their competing asset classes, and the implications for constructing portfolios, before Inquisitor Tim Farrelly summed up the day's key takeouts...
We asked the research houses: Of the 15,000 managed funds on offer in the Australian market, how do you determine which ones you will rate?
The question every investor has right now is 'are we in a bubble'? There's no doubt that the huge infusion of free money into the world economy by every government from the US to China has created enormous price movements. But the single most important risk to be thinking about now is inflation risk...
As suggested in the last Pain Report, it looks like The House of Saud is prepared to stand and fight with Bahrain's House of Al-Khalifa. We are rapidly approaching a critical decision point - will they or won't they? My view, very regrettably, is that the Saudis will intervene in Bahrain...
This one has been around for a while now. We have seen how the sub-prime lending crisis brought the US and European banking systems to their knees. The story goes that the Australian banking system is also a time bomb waiting to happen...
The rise in prices for natural resources and the associated planned increase in Australian-based capacity to supply key commodities is one of the largest economic events in our history. I will structure my remarks around four questions: What do we know from previous booms? What do we know about this one? What don't we know? How should we respond?
The tectonic plates of the Arab world have ruptured and the geopolitical fault lines that have shaped and defined the region for sixty years have shifted inexorably. What does that mean for investing?
The Summer Seminar 2011 debated the following three carefully selected topics, in a Socratic learning environment: Forever blowing bubbles; Avoiding avoidable mistakes; and, Agency risk and portfolio construction...
What are the broader perspectives on the implications of the Egyptian crisis for markets and investors?
Inspired by the overthrow of the Tunisian president, demonstrations began in Egypt on 25 January and the rest, as they say, is history. Before we attempt to predict what the consequences will indeed be, let us first understand what we are actually seeing and why...
While the original Markowitz formulations might not be perfect, the problems in client portfolios during the last market meltdown can be traced to naive inputs...
It's with considerable trepidation that I take on the world's central bankers who are protecting the world against the evils of deflation...