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A generational transition for bond markets
The return of wage growth across the industralised world has significant implications for markets and central bank policy - and spells the end of the 30-year rally in bonds.
| 29-11-17 | More -
Values, ethics and investing
While some still firmly believe that values and ethics have no part to play in investing, the tide is turning. Values play a vital role in investment and business decisions - and, increasingly, investors care about more than just financial returns.
| 22-11-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
The Cocaine Brain and other biases
Human beings are subject to behavioural biases, which negatively affect their ability to make rational choices. These behavioural biases create market inefficiencies that active investment managers can exploit to generate alpha.
| 13-11-17 | More -
Inflationary pressures are building
Stock markets are thriving in a "Goldilocks" environment. But there is a growing risk of the US economy over-heating. Investors should keep a close eye on inflation and wages data.
| 01-11-17 | More -
Philosophy Lecture: Value investing
Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?
| 01-11-17 | 4.00 CE | More -
Protecting the medium-term view
As inflation re-emerges and central banks wind down their QE programs, yields will rise substantially. The key is not to lose money while medium-term ideas play out.
| 02-10-17 | More -
Watch for rising rates in 2018
Portfolio construction practitioners should prepare for an environment which is less favourable for their equity and long bond exposures.
| 31-08-17 | More -
There’s a place for Impact Investing strategies in portfolios
The impact investing market will be worth US$1 trillion in coming decades. It is important for practitioners to realise the impact that their client's capital can have on society.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Ethics has nothing to do with investment
While some still firmly believe that ethics has nothing to do with investment, the tide is turning. Increasingly, clients are demanding ethical portfolios.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns
To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Smart money signals can improve your global factor models
In the US, institutional investors have a significant impact on future stock performance. Extending this research globally shows that ownership signals can supplement a traditional factor model and improve long/short performance.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Corporate debt is the undiscovered yield play
With higher returns than term deposits, and less risk than hybrids and equities, corporate loans add up to an attractive alternative in a potentially rising interest rates environment.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Risk-based investing is essential in a low return world
For a portfolio’s position to add up robustly, it must reflect future risks and respond to how these change through time.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
There is no dominant strategy in Australian Equities
Investment managers around the world believe their style is the holy grail of generating returns ahead of the market. But you can’t beat the market using a simple rules-based strategy.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Digital consumption is China's next growth engine
China's digital economy will soon surpass that of the US. MSCI A Share inclusion in 2018 will allow foreign investors to participate in China's fast growing e-commerce sector.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Investing in diversified fat left tailed strategies has value
Investment in a well diversified and risk controlled mix of Risk Premium strategies is essential to building a robust portfolio through good times and bad.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
China will be the dominant power in the region by 2027
Xi Jinping would like to oversee China’s rise to regional dominance - but the US, Japan and India will not allow China alone to dominate the region.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Not all ETFs are created equal
With over 160 ETFs trading on the ASX, selecting the right ETF has become far more challenging. A simple yet effective due diligence framework is needed to assess suitability.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Multi asset + derivatives = your pre+post retirement solution
Constructing portfolios that capture the upside while limiting the downside is more important than ever. Derivatives can help multi-asset investors in three key ways.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
EM Infrastructure is too risky for defensive equity portfolios
Emerging markets infrastructure plays a powerful role in a portfolio. However many investors make assumptions around the risk of these markets and ignore them to their detriment.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Falling living standards are a bigger risk than volatility
An active portfolio of high-quality Australian companies paying sustainable dividends is part of the solution to protect living standards against income shocks and inflation.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Global credit deserves a greater piece of the investment pie
Introducing an active global credit investment into portfolios adds to an investor's opportunity set, and can offer alpha opportunities.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Managing carbon exposure is essential for better risk-adjusted returns
Managing carbon risk within portfolios is increasingly a decision integral to risk management and the pursuit of superior long-term risk-adjusted returns.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
World class companies run their own race
Six key factors differentiate exceptional companies from their peers. These all add up to a business that generates exceptional returns for extended periods of time.
| 24-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Shifting global trade patterns open up new opportunities
Portfolio construction must stay relevant. While traditional country and sector allocations may have worked in the past, today's new environment requires a global and flexible approach.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Longevity pooling adds up to better retirement outcomes
There are many risks and uncertainties as retired clients face the next 20 to 40 years. The uncertainty related to the period of retirement can be allowed for, to enable retirees to have a higher living standard during their retirement years.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
We do a lot of things in this industry that are unhelpful
Managers must both develop and implement an investment process - but we seem to be determined to deny them recognition for the former and to judge their performance on the latter.
| 24-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
There are better alternatives to time-based rebalancing
Time-based rebalancing is inefficient. Research suggests that tolerance band rebalancing strategies minimise trading and boost portfolio returns. Such threshold approaches may be used in both the portfolio accumulation and decumulation phase, and act as a pre-commitment device for clients.
| 24-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Democratic politics & market economics are the axis of value
Public policy matters to performance at every level. Yet modern politics faces a crisis of ideas, relevance and trust. The trick is to let markets do their work.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Culture is at the heart of investment competitive advantage
Culture is at the heart of competitive advantage today - this is particularly the case for investment firms where people and their judgments are the chief assets.
| 23-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Investment is a game of inches – every little bit counts
In a world where 0.6%pa is top quartile, winning is difficult and losing is easy. There are big gains to be made in surprising places. Even 1%pa adds up to a huge difference over time.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
ETFs are the new stocks and advisers are the new managers
Advisers are increasingly eschewing active managed fund managers, and instead are supplanting themselves as tactical managers of "passive" ETF funds.
| 23-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
The 'Random Walk' hypothesis is dead
When it comes to investing across the capital structure, it all adds up, but debt and equity’s relative contributions to returns shift markedly through time.
| 23-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
The shrinking of the public equity market matters
The number of publicly listed companies in the US has roughly halved since 1996, a phenomenon which spans other regions. The trend is likely to persist, and it has significant implications for investors.
| 23-08-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
E + S + G factors all add up to better performance
Ensuring your investment process has the flexibility to incorporate sustainability factors all adds up to improved longer term portfolio performance outcomes.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
A team of champions does not make a champion team
Building genuinely diversified portfolios, where every investment represents an active decision, makes for a champion team of investments.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Index obsession is unhealthy and leads investors astray
Investing is simply deploying savings to generate returns, yet abstractions such as indices are creating unnecessary complexity. Nowhere in an effective investment process need there be any reference to the prospects for a market index.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Creativity and predictability add up to alpha generation
Loss avoidance and simplicity are highly attractive to the human mind. However, uncertainty is often the source of superior returns and creativity can be a key source of alpha, delivering idiosyncratic outcomes.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
To pick up pennies, take a structured approach to investing
In a developed world full of challenges, a consistently applied process that focuses on both the cyclical and secular outlook is something that every investor can apply.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
In a low return world, small mistakes add up to big losses
Investors need to employ a rigorous and consistent valuation methodology, seek to minimise forecast error bounds and disregard traditional cap weighted benchmarks.
| 23-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Another global financial crisis is inevitable
Janet Yellen says another crisis is not likely, yet signs of stress are growing and valuations are stretched. Investors need a strategy for weathering a storm, whether or not there is one on the horizon.
| 23-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Retirement spending and biological age
There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that chronological (C) age is dominated by biological (B) age as a better proxy for longevity risk. Practitioners must consider both ages when building portfolios and structuring retirement spending strategies.
| 23-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Revealing a client's true preferences
Game theory, econometrics and distributed computing power can reveal a client's true preferences for risk, loss, uncertainty, time and goals – with scientific precision and in terms that clients can understand.
| 20-08-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Achieve client goals with minimum discomfort
Observing how a client makes financial trade-offs can provide a more accurate measure of their risk preferences than if we ask questions about what they think they would do.
| 18-07-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Cycles in a low growth world
In a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate and low yield environment, a cyclical economic upturn presents opportunities in asset classes such as equities and real estate
| 05-07-17 | More -
Buy Low, Sell High. It sounds simple but clients need a framework
Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.
| 01-06-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Beware expensive factors
Investors should keep a close eye on relative valuations. Recent data suggests that momentum and value are trading cheaply in many markets, with low beta substantially over-priced.
| 30-05-17 | More -
Three strategies to manage retirement income uncertainty
The danger that sequence of return risk can devastate a retirement portfolio is both increasingly recognised and frequently misunderstood. Three research-driven strategies can help manage it.
| 22-05-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
A Trump slump?
Trump's election triggered a global stock market upswing, on confidence that he would be able to fulfill his pledge to reignite US economic growth. But how much is Trump really likely to be able to get done?
| 18-05-17 | More -
People know what to do. They just need to do it!
Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.
| 01-05-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Issues in long-term investing - part 1
Short-term thinking in finance is nothing new. The benefits of long-term investing extend beyond just being able to invest in illiquid assets. Patience can pay its own dividend.
| 10-04-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
How will Brexit play out?
As Britain embarks on the process of disentangling itself from the EU, the country will regain control over national law and policy making, raising opportunities to implement new models.
| 28-03-17 | More -
A client's life is a mix of stocks & bonds
It is time to properly account for risk characteristics of client’s most valuable asset - their human capital. This isn’t easy to implement and places practitioners in a difficult situation...
| 24-03-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Impact of manager benchmarking and tracking error
Requiring investment managers to perform relative to a benchmark, including imposing tracking error constraints, causes short-term'ism.
| 23-03-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
The myth of declining living standards
Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.
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2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit
Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).
01-03-17 | More -
2017 Markets Summit - Webcast
Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.
01-03-17 | More -
Mindset/Skillset/Toolset - the trifecta for success
The key to influencing investors is to have the right mindset, build the right skillset and apply the right toolset.
| 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Focus investors on goals with a retirement spending policy
A formal, written spending policy can help investors focus on what's really important - will they meet their goals?
| 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
An investment philosophy is critical
This workshop will help you develop a clear, communicable, logical and understandable investment philosophy, deciding what's important and what's not.
| 15-02-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Buy Low, Sell High sounds simple but clients need a framework
Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.
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The Advice Tipping Point is imminent - panel
Our panel discusses the steady stream of disruption around the delivery of financial advice.
| 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
People know what to do to change their circumstances. They just need to do it!
Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.
| 15-02-17 | 1.00 CE | More -
Empathy is the essential skill to survive
The key trait for relating to investors in the future will be the one skill that our brains are not programmed to receive from a computer - empathy.
| 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
The winds of change and the 4IR
Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?
| 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
The Advice Tipping Point is imminent
Regulatory tailwinds, fee pressure, unbridled experimentation around the delivery of advice - it's a steady stream of disruption. Ironically, technology is both our poison and antidote.
| 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
The winds have changed
The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...
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Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Stereotypes and noise obscure good decisions
Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Credit - the epicentre of the next crisis
Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Winds have changed
The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Australian equities portfolios are vulnerable to inflation
Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.
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Turbulent US-China ties to test the region
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Now is the time to accumulate duration
As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.
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There are 4 fundamental decisions to make now for portfolios
When positioning a multi-asset, portfolio for the medium-term, there are four fundamental decisions we must make now. They are, in some cases, interdependent.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
The hunt for yield is over
Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.
| 14-02-17 | 2 comments | More -
Australian real estate is in for a soft landing
A-REITs may face headwinds over the next two years, but total returns will likely remain positive, before returning to a more normal level of 8% to 10% per annum.
| 14-02-17 | More -
Winds of change are driving opportunities in Europe and Korea
Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans
Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".
It's time to rotate into loans! -
Australian government bonds can still provide positive returns
There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air"
The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Rising rates, populism... but infrastructure remains reliable
For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Caveat Emptor
A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Panel: The winds of change
Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
The Winds of change are stronger than you think
Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.
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We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error
2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your peril
With Trump, Brexit, Italy's "No" and China's currency woes, the world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown. Investors should aim for capital preservation until the veil of uncertainty over future policies starts to lift.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Don't confuse winds of change with "hot air"
The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Au government bonds can still provide positive returns
There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
Populist discontent a danger for markets
Governments must find a way to reconcile open markets with more evenly distributed income growth, or globalisation may reverse with dire implications for risk assets.
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Winds of change are stronger than you think
Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More -
Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty
2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.
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The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump
There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.
| 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | More -
The winds of change
Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?
| 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | More