The disconnect between financial markets and the real economy is becoming more pronounced, as investors focus on the attenuation of some short-term tail risks, and on central banks' return to monetary-policy easing.
Established in 2007, the annual Investment Management Research Symposium presents contemporary investment research. The two-day blended face-to-face and online learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team, and features an exceptional Faculty of 20+ leading finance and investment thinkers from around the world. Each presents research related to this year's theme, "We are living in exceptional times".
It is only a matter of time before some shock triggers a new recession. Because policymakers will be pressured to do something, "crazy" policy responses will become a foregone conclusion.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on properties of debt markets, the investment features and risks of bonds, the application of the time value of money to the valuation of bonds, and the concepts of duration and convexity and their application to bond portfolio management.
On the positive side - still - is the US consumer, the household sector. On the negative side is synchronised global industrial deceleration, and markets underestimating the negative trajectory of the US/China relationship. Investors need to avoid chasing momentum in equity markets and yield and duration in fixed income markets.
Financial regulators have been reluctant to dish out jail terms. A new research paper finds that prison terms can be a cost-effective governance mechanism. A second paper gauges the impact of self-control on investment behaviour.
In the increasingly intense strategic and economic competition between Washington and Beijing, it's naive to think Australia can just sit on the sidelines.
Hindsight has taught us the importance of active core bond funds as an insurance policy and now is the time to consider expanding your investable universe as the secular need for income intensifies.
One of the best performing equity sub-asset classes over 20 years is seemingly being ignored. Investors should seriously consider an allocation to Global SMID equities in their portfolios.
Many investors are reconsidering a strong traditional overweight exposure to Australian equities. But structural forces driving domestic growth continue to support an overweight allocation to Australian equities into the 2020s.
Value investing experienced one of its worst underperformances in the decade since the GFC. As we enter the 2020s, valuations heavily favour value stocks and the data shows that value has a greater than 85% chance of outperforming growth from here.
This hypothetical Investment Committee considers three relevant, forward-looking economic and market scenarios which have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
To achieve a satisfactory return from equities, you must identify high quality forecastable businesses, apply a strict valuation discipline and have the conviction to be different from the herd.
The significant valuation gap between listed and direct infrastructure markets presents an opportunity to arbitrage value from the two as the gap closes. Understanding the weight of this change into 2020 and beyond is key.
Moving into the 2020s, global equity portfolios should be concentrated and highly selective, positioned to address both fundamental changes in the global backdrop and vulnerabilities in the successful styles of recent years.
Portfolio managers and investment advisers still too often follow their own values, rather than their clients’, when making investment decisions. In the 2020s, values will move from the periphery to the focal point for successful investments.
The decade since the GFC has been a challenging period for value style equity investing. Not surprisingly, investors are questioning the value of value investing.
The 2010s challenged value investors as, paradoxically, cheap stocks became cheaper and expensive stocks grew more expensive. For those holding their nerve, the inconsistency sets up a good 2020s.
Future returns from infrastructure portfolios are less clear due to disruptive forces. Managing these risks requires an unrelenting focus on improving efficiency and customer service.
A deliberate blend of emerging market debt and high yield opens up another universe of liquid, high income opportunities which can offer relative stability in returns and deliver the potential of higher income.
Australia has enjoyed nearly three decades of uninterrupted economic growth, but there are sound reasons to question whether this will continue in the future. Five core shifts – industry, urban, energy, land and culture – are needed for Australia to reach its full potential.
Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?
Great eyesight depends on more than just clarity of vision - peripheral awareness, eye co-ordination, depth perception, focus and colour sensitivity all play a crucial role, without which our vision is impaired. Strategies Conference 2019 looks ahead at the issues that will dominate the 2020s and beyond to provide greater clarity in building quality portfolios.
A disciplined, scenarios-based approach to determining your views on the outlook for markets is vital for building 20/20 portfolios. Determining investment strategy by analysing issues from a number of viewpoints allows you to arrive at plausible scenarios for how the future may unfold.
Established in 2002, Strategies Conference has gained a reputation as THE portfolio construction strategies conference of the year. The two-day, blended face-to-face and online learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 50+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, in the context of the program theme, 20/20 vision.
While much of the discussion around climate change and transition risks is focused on negative impacts, these changes will offer significant opportunities for some businesses.
Research finds that SRI funds perform as well as conventional funds, ESG equity investing has outperformed in the US, and controversial stocks do best in crises.
The critics of QE are right to warn of unintended consequences. But shunning QE may also have unintended consequences. The critics should be careful what they wish for.
Established in 2008, the Investment Management Research Workshop showcases contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management. It gives you a rare opportunity to join with the full spectrum of investment management analysts - academics, professional investors, consultants, practitioners and advocates - to consider contemporary investment research.
The long boom in Australian residential property prices seems to have finally ended. Further falls to come will cause the Australian economy to slow but will not cause a recession.
Hamish Douglass, Andrew Canobi, Brett Gillespie, Tim Farrelly, Charles Jamieson, Peter Kim, Stephen Miller, AJ Qualtieri, Randal Jenneke, and Thomas Vester convened to debate their Markets Summit 2019 key takeouts and the portfolio construction implications.
Few clients have the 20-year horizon required for today’s strategically-oriented models to become consistent with suggested outcomes, such as CPI+4%. This builds in a structural mismatch.
It’s a Quantitative Tightening world and the tide is receding. QT appears set to continue in 2019 and bonds should continue to perform well.
Banks are a defensive fixed income investment. This may sound counterintuitive only a decade removed from the most prolific financial crisis of our lifetime.
As recessionary pressures continue to build, rotating portfolios toward high grade, defensive assets will prove to be a prescient asset allocation decision for investors.
The vast majority of emerging market economies are fundamentally healthy and are being driven by broad thematics, not just evolving consumption patterns.
While infrastructure is known as a defensive asset class, it is set for enormous growth over coming decades, making it an attractive investment proposition for years to come.
Global high yield corporate bonds represent an attractive asset class for investors searching for a diversified source of income.
The best chance for survival among what were regarded as the most defensive of stocks is to be the biggest, most revered brand – or at least hold second spot. Others will struggle and many will disappear.
Easy money in credit markets is gone, and corporate bonds face more risk for less return. Structural liquidity deterioration raises a black swan risk of a disorderly sell-off spilling into other markets.
The new normal is a world of higher systemic risk, which implies portfolio managers will need to dig more deeply into their tool kit of risk-understanding and mitigation techniques.
Returns in emerging market equities have been disappointing in recent years. But the stark rise of populism in the western world may actually present an opportunity for many emerging economies.
Slowing growth with extreme recession risk, coupled with a combative populist government, may well see Italy trigger a crisis in European debt and the currency, causing a substantial global volatility event.
Rates are normalising, populism is on the rise, technology is driving disruption. But not every perceived winner will win and not every perceived loser will be destroyed forever.
Drawing on his unique background as part of the elite leadership team of the CIA's Clandestine Service, David shares his views and analysis of the current geopolitical landscape.
Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The jam-packed blended learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view), in the context of the theme - The heat is on! - and the implications for portfolios.
Yes, it’s possible that we enter a recession in the not too distant future. But the best curve to forecast recessions still has a positive slope.