Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. This year's theme is "Be alert! High VUCA ahead!" VUCA stands for "volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity". Markets Summit facilitates debate on the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) – with particular emphasis on being alert to high VUCA risks and opportunities ahead - to aid your search for return, and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. It will help you understand the key investment market and asset class opportunities (and risks) ahead, to aid your search for return and in building better quality investor portfolios.

Calendar 2019 is ending on a relatively positive note, especially compared to the same time in 2018. Policymakers have a chance to "fix the roof while the sun is shining".

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...

Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

With interest rates on government debt at multi-decade lows, a number of leading economists have argued that almost every advanced economy can allow debt to drift up toward Japanese levels. This ignores what can go wrong.

The disconnect between financial markets and the real economy is becoming more pronounced, as investors focus on the attenuation of some short-term tail risks, and on central banks' return to monetary-policy easing.

Central bankers and senior economic officials now almost unanimously believe that monetary policy has reached its limits.

Established in 2007, the annual Investment Management Research Symposium presents contemporary investment research. The two-day blended face-to-face and online learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team, and features an exceptional Faculty of 20+ leading finance and investment thinkers from around the world. Each presents research related to this year's theme, "We are living in exceptional times".

Established in 2007, the annual Investment Management Research Symposium presents contemporary investment research. This year's two-day program features an exceptional Faculty of 20 leading thinkers - academics from leading university business schools, independent consultants, central bankers, regulators and professional investors - presenting research related to this year's theme, "We are living in exceptional times".

It is only a matter of time before some shock triggers a new recession. Because policymakers will be pressured to do something, "crazy" policy responses will become a foregone conclusion.

The Sino-American trade war may well be about to enter its endgame. The next round of negotiations could be the last real chance to find a way through the trade, technology, and wider economic imbroglio that has been engulfing both countries.

Are markets efficient? Recent research suggests not, finding media impacts information dissemination, and mispricing explains the value premium.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

This lecture instructs Investment Management Analyst Course (IMAC) candidates on the fundamental of applied economics with an Australian perspective.

This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on properties of debt markets, the investment features and risks of bonds, the application of the time value of money to the valuation of bonds, and the concepts of duration and convexity and their application to bond portfolio management.

Christine Lagarde will soon succeed Mario Draghi as president of the ECB. She is taking the reins at precisely the right moment for Europe to make the changes needed to avoid a second lost decade.

There are several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis.

Policymakers are coming to realise that it is neither wise nor feasible to rely constantly on central banks for economic-policy support. The case for shifting the burden from monetary to fiscal policy is becoming more apparent.

On the positive side - still - is the US consumer, the household sector. On the negative side is synchronised global industrial deceleration, and markets underestimating the negative trajectory of the US/China relationship. Investors need to avoid chasing momentum in equity markets and yield and duration in fixed income markets.

Trump's administration is flailing at antiquated perceptions of the Old China that only compound the problems it claims to be addressing. Financial markets are starting to get a sense that something is awry.

With bond prices going parabolic in the past few weeks, once again market participants are wondering whether the bond market is in a bubble.

Financial regulators have been reluctant to dish out jail terms. A new research paper finds that prison terms can be a cost-effective governance mechanism. A second paper gauges the impact of self-control on investment behaviour.

Ron Bird | 2 comments | 1.00 CE

In the increasingly intense strategic and economic competition between Washington and Beijing, it's naive to think Australia can just sit on the sidelines.

Expert Panel | 0.75 CE

Hindsight has taught us the importance of active core bond funds as an insurance policy and now is the time to consider expanding your investable universe as the secular need for income intensifies.

Rob Mead | 0.50 CE

The rise of intangible assets has created a new level of economic potential for successful businesses. For both growth and value investors, the nature of fundamental analysis must evolve to match an intangible world.

James Kim | 0.50 CE

Since the GFC, we have seen a re-emergence of the low growth world which persisted before the 1950s. Investment returns in the 2020s and beyond will be concentrated in a few winners with real earnings growth.

Mark Arnold | 0.25 CE

One of the best performing equity sub-asset classes over 20 years is seemingly being ignored. Investors should seriously consider an allocation to Global SMID equities in their portfolios.

Ned Bell | 0.25 CE

Alpha still matters and an active approach can enhance portfolio returns, creating extra saving to be spent in retirement.

Thomas Poullaouec | 0.50 CE

Many investors are reconsidering a strong traditional overweight exposure to Australian equities. But structural forces driving domestic growth continue to support an overweight allocation to Australian equities into the 2020s.

Tim Carleton | 0.25 CE

Value investing experienced one of its worst underperformances in the decade since the GFC. As we enter the 2020s, valuations heavily favour value stocks and the data shows that value has a greater than 85% chance of outperforming growth from here.

Charles Dalziell | 0.50 CE

This hypothetical Investment Committee considers three relevant, forward-looking economic and market scenarios which have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.

Expert Panel | 1.00 CE

The diverse characteristics of credit markets provides investors the ability to construct robust portfolios, offering investment opportunities suitable for all potential market environments.

Michael Buchanan | 0.50 CE

To achieve a satisfactory return from equities, you must identify high quality forecastable businesses, apply a strict valuation discipline and have the conviction to be different from the herd.

Warryn Robertson | 0.25 CE

The significant valuation gap between listed and direct infrastructure markets presents an opportunity to arbitrage value from the two as the gap closes. Understanding the weight of this change into 2020 and beyond is key.

Daniel Foley | 0.50 CE

Moving into the 2020s, global equity portfolios should be concentrated and highly selective, positioned to address both fundamental changes in the global backdrop and vulnerabilities in the successful styles of recent years.

Ashley Pittard | 0.25 CE

Portfolio managers and investment advisers still too often follow their own values, rather than their clients’, when making investment decisions. In the 2020s, values will move from the periphery to the focal point for successful investments.

Whether they realise it or not, investors use factors every time they make an asset allocation decision. Combining multiple factors can help investors increase the chances for investment success.

Antonio Picca | 0.50 CE

If we want a vibrant capitalist future in the 21st century, we need to support ethical legal frameworks for capitalism and practice Conscious Capitalism.

Magatte Wade | 0.50 CE

Portfolio managers don't have perfect vision. Better prediction accuracy results in more concentrated portfolios, higher turnover, higher position limits and higher returns and information ratios.

Jim Creighton | 0.50 CE

The decade since the GFC has been a challenging period for value style equity investing. Not surprisingly, investors are questioning the value of value investing.

Expert Panel | 1.00 CE

Future returns from infrastructure portfolios are less clear due to disruptive forces. Managing these risks requires an unrelenting focus on improving efficiency and customer service.

Peter Meany | 0.50 CE

The 2010s challenged value investors as, paradoxically, cheap stocks became cheaper and expensive stocks grew more expensive. For those holding their nerve, the inconsistency sets up a good 2020s.

Andrew Clifford | 0.50 CE

A deliberate blend of emerging market debt and high yield opens up another universe of liquid, high income opportunities which can offer relative stability in returns and deliver the potential of higher income.

James Blair | 0.25 CE

Australia has enjoyed nearly three decades of uninterrupted economic growth, but there are sound reasons to question whether this will continue in the future. Five core shifts – industry, urban, energy, land and culture – are needed for Australia to reach its full potential.

Katherine Wynn | 0.50 CE

To succeed within the ever-shifting context in which investment decisions are made, investors should adopt a multi-lens approach. Context matters, and siloed thinking can be detrimental.

Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?

There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. None of them are amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

Great eyesight depends on more than just clarity of vision - peripheral awareness, eye co-ordination, depth perception, focus and colour sensitivity all play a crucial role, without which our vision is impaired. Strategies Conference 2019 looks ahead at the issues that will dominate the 2020s and beyond to provide greater clarity in building quality portfolios.

Many economists argue that resolving US-China trade tensions is the best way to avoid significant global economic and financial disruption. Yet, while necessary, this would be far from sufficient.

A disciplined, scenarios-based approach to determining your views on the outlook for markets is vital for building 20/20 portfolios. Determining investment strategy by analysing issues from a number of viewpoints allows you to arrive at plausible scenarios for how the future may unfold.

Established in 2002, Strategies Conference has gained a reputation as THE portfolio construction strategies conference of the year. The two-day, blended face-to-face and online learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 50+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, in the context of the program theme, 20/20 vision.

Crypto land has become an unregulated casino where unchecked criminality runs riot. It is high time that law-enforcement agencies stepped in.

In late May 2019, Australian 10-year bonds were at 1.64% per annum. A month on and they’d dipped under 1.3% per annum. This is quite a move.

Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Conference facilitates debate on portfolio construction strategies. It will challenge and refreshe your portfolio construction thinking by debating contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, to consider applying in practice to build better quality portfolios.

There is nothing unusual in a US President having a penchant for spin. But it won't be nearly as easy to spin the consequences of the flaws with Trump's economic policy.

The growing proportion and influence of older workers in the labour force will provide support for the equity market going forward.

Facebook’s crypto-currency aims to function as private money anywhere on the planet. Given the massive risks, governments must step in and stop it before it launches.

While much of the discussion around climate change and transition risks is focused on negative impacts, these changes will offer significant opportunities for some businesses.

Research finds that SRI funds perform as well as conventional funds, ESG equity investing has outperformed in the US, and controversial stocks do best in crises.

Ron Bird | 1.00 CE

The critics of QE are right to warn of unintended consequences. But shunning QE may also have unintended consequences. The critics should be careful what they wish for.

Investment grade debt has become much riskier, default rates will rise when interest rates begin the inevitable normalisation, and credit spreads are too low – it’s a bubble waiting to burst. Actually, no.

If you believe the UK is turning into populist Zimbabwe or Venezuela, you should expect a no-deal Brexit. Otherwise, forget about it.

The Federal Reserve is contemplating changing its framework for targeting inflation. It should conclude that the FOMC needs more patience with the current neutral stance rather than a new target.

The inflation outlook is subject to far wider possibilities than policymakers have considered. Too little focus on structural factors could pose serious risks to economic wellbeing and financial stability.

A carbon tax - while immensely popular among economists - imposes the same cost on the rich and poor. A carbon dividend would be a smart step that wouldn’t invite a yellow vest reaction.

Established in 2008, the Investment Management Research Workshop showcases contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management. It gives you a rare opportunity to join with the full spectrum of investment management analysts - academics, professional investors, consultants, practitioners and advocates - to consider contemporary investment research.

The Investment Management Research Workshop 2019 showcased contemporary academic research that is relevant to investment management.

Five misplaced concerns about the future of the dollar make forecasts of a long-run collapse in the dollar problematic.

Woody Brock | 0.50 CE

Climate change has moved faster than most thought possible. There will be exciting investment opportunities in companies focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Jeremy Grantham | 1.00 CE

The long boom in Australian residential property prices seems to have finally ended. Further falls to come will cause the Australian economy to slow but will not cause a recession.

Tim Farrelly | 2 comments | 0.25 CE

If a final US-China trade deal prevents China from gaining greater monetary-policy autonomy, it could create major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.

With Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a record in June, the question is whether this is a resumption of the bull market or only a temporary bounce.

These are my key takeouts from Markets Summit 2019's Faculty of investment thinkers from around the world offering their high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets.

China is frequently presented as a source of crisis or instability for the global economy. However, the picture is one of imperfection, not peril.

Each February, our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...

Yes, the days of 10% Chinese growth are over. That was inevitable. But there are five key reasons to dismiss the now-widespread diagnosis that China is ensnared in the middle-income trap.

Compared to physical risks, investors have a much greater ability to incorporate carbon and related pollution regulations into investment decisions.

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. The new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.

My key takeout was that perhaps markets entered an inflection point through 2018 and, accordingly (if they haven't already), investors need to think about how they position portfolios.

The arguments of supporters of Modern Monetary Theory have a grain of truth, but also rest on some fundamental misconceptions and have unpredictable, potentially serious consequences.

For the first time in a decade, bonds can compete against equities on returns. High quality, investment grade corporate bonds can deliver mid-single digit returns for a third of the volatility of equities.

Climate change is affecting countries, companies, assets and communities in a variety of ways. Good stewardship of client assets requires investors to consider these issues.

There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent - albeit mediocre - year for the global economy. But a global growth-stall and sharp market downturn could come in 2020.

Human beliefs, biases and behaviours are central to the behaviour of financial markets, causing financial and economic instability to persist.

Hamish Douglass, Andrew Canobi, Brett Gillespie, Tim Farrelly, Charles Jamieson, Peter Kim, Stephen Miller, AJ Qualtieri, Randal Jenneke, and Thomas Vester convened to debate their Markets Summit 2019 key takeouts and the portfolio construction implications.

Expert Panel | 1.00 CE

Few clients have the 20-year horizon required for today’s strategically-oriented models to become consistent with suggested outcomes, such as CPI+4%. This builds in a structural mismatch.

Michael Kelly | 0.25 CE

Investors are so focused on predicting the end of this economic cycle they have missed the fact that it simply won't. A recession will be avoided and the cycle will extend.

Bob Michele | 2 comments | 0.25 CE

It’s a Quantitative Tightening world and the tide is receding. QT appears set to continue in 2019 and bonds should continue to perform well.

Brett Lewthwaite | 0.25 CE

Banks are a defensive fixed income investment. This may sound counterintuitive only a decade removed from the most prolific financial crisis of our lifetime.

Attilio Qualtieri | 0.25 CE

Nearly a decade after one of the great debt binges of all time, Chinese economic growth and credit creation have slowed. Today, stimulus is being undertaken. This is not a crisis, this is reform.

Julian McCormack | 0.25 CE

As recessionary pressures continue to build, rotating portfolios toward high grade, defensive assets will prove to be a prescient asset allocation decision for investors.

Charles Jamieson | 0.25 CE

The vast majority of emerging market economies are fundamentally healthy and are being driven by broad thematics, not just evolving consumption patterns.

Projit Chatterjee | 0.25 CE

While infrastructure is known as a defensive asset class, it is set for enormous growth over coming decades, making it an attractive investment proposition for years to come.

Sarah Shaw | 0.25 CE

Recent central bank decisions have strengthened the conviction that the New Neutral is a global reality which will have long-term implications on investment decisions.

Rob Mead | 0.25 CE

Global high yield corporate bonds represent an attractive asset class for investors searching for a diversified source of income.

Adam Grotzinger | 0.25 CE

Easy money in credit markets is gone, and corporate bonds face more risk for less return. Structural liquidity deterioration raises a black swan risk of a disorderly sell-off spilling into other markets.

Gopi Karunakaran | 0.25 CE

The best chance for survival among what were regarded as the most defensive of stocks is to be the biggest, most revered brand – or at least hold second spot. Others will struggle and many will disappear.

Vihari Ross | 0.25 CE

The new normal is a world of higher systemic risk, which implies portfolio managers will need to dig more deeply into their tool kit of risk-understanding and mitigation techniques.

Randal Jenneke | 0.25 CE

Returns in emerging market equities have been disappointing in recent years. But the stark rise of populism in the western world may actually present an opportunity for many emerging economies.

Thomas Vester | 0.25 CE

Slowing growth with extreme recession risk, coupled with a combative populist government, may well see Italy trigger a crisis in European debt and the currency, causing a substantial global volatility event.

Vimal Gor | 0.25 CE

Rates are normalising, populism is on the rise, technology is driving disruption. But not every perceived winner will win and not every perceived loser will be destroyed forever.

Jacob Mitchell | 0.25 CE

On some measures, global equity valuations are the most attractive in several years. Risks, however, have certainly increased and in many cases are more difficult to frame.

Ronald Temple | 0.25 CE

For most of the last 10 years, the world's major central banks have been creating significant amounts of cheap money, inflating several bubbles. Those bubbles are beginning to burst.

Chris Watling | 1 comment | 0.25 CE

Drawing on his unique background as part of the elite leadership team of the CIA's Clandestine Service, David shares his views and analysis of the current geopolitical landscape.

David Bridges | 0.25 CE

Much macroeconomic analysis is very narrow in scope. ESG factors are ignored all together. A new indicator of national progress measures economic dynamism and progress on meeting ESG goals.

Stephanie Kelly | 0.25 CE

Two of the defining characteristics of the global investment landscape over the last 30 years are being reversed - globalisation (by economic nationalism) and finalisation (as we've reached peak debt).

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The jam-packed blended learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view), in the context of the theme - The heat is on! - and the implications for portfolios.

Yes, it’s possible that we enter a recession in the not too distant future. But the best curve to forecast recessions still has a positive slope.

For most of the past decade, the growing spending power of China’s expanding middle class has fueled the global economy. Not so anymore.

We see three scenarios for 2019 - is it a benign outlook like 2016? A bubble bursting like 2000? Or will inflation accelerate?

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.

Cyclical volatility in earnings has increased dramatically since the 1980s. The recent Apple profit warning is an excellent case in point.