Scientific studies suggest the world is still on track to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in temperature relative to pre-industrial times, by 2050. We collectively need to do more - and the power of private capital has a key role to play.
Key officials at the US Federal Reserve have finally acknowledged that they mischaracterised an inflationary surge that has proven larger and more persistent than they expected. The Fed must now follow up by doing two things quickly.
The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are vitally important to building a better world for all humanity. Using an SDG framework reduces portfolio risk while making a positive SDG impact.
Australian cash rates will stay low for decades. Low interest rates mean high asset prices, which means much lower returns ahead. Our client communications must be in tune with this new environment.
In the 1990s and 2000s, investors were largely able to ignore the macro picture. But macro forces have reawakened and matter more than ever for portfolios to succeed in meeting client goals in the years ahead.
Uncertainty around the inflation outlook is at an extreme – yet a view on inflation is a critical input to building portfolios capable of achieving client goals out into the future.
Three economists describe and debate three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
Infrastructure plays a key role in the move towards decarbonisation and net-zero emissions. Government policy support and the unprecedented amount of capital required to achieve these targets should change how you think about investing in infrastructure.
Capital markets will be shaped profoundly as the economy transitions from a depletive economic model to a more sustainable one. Such transitions will inevitably create winners and losers.
Our hypothetical Investment Committee considers three relevant economic and market scenarios which have a reasonable probability of occurring, and the asset allocation implications of each.
Established in 2002, Strategies Conference is THE portfolio construction strategies conference of the year. Presented each August, the program features 50+ carefully selected leading investment thinkers who will challenge and refresh your portfolio construction thinking by debating contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, for you to consider applying in practice to build better quality portfolios.
Activist short sellers have received increasing attention - and notoriety - in recent years. This paper adopts the lens of narrative economics to reveal useful insights into the dynamics of activist short selling.
A large and growing body of commentators is warning about the very real possibility - if not outright likelihood - of policymakers unwittingly letting the inflation genie out of the bottle.
farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Jun 2021) has been assessed and accredited by Portfolio Construction Forum for Continuing Education (CE/CPD) hours. Those who attend online on-demand must complete a CE Quiz to receive CE/CPD accreditation.
Global financial markets have been reacting to the Covid-19 pandemic since early 2020, providing a unique opportunity for researchers to examine the impact of a global pandemic on uncertainty, investor reactions, and stock prices.
Charles Goodhart, perhaps Britain's most distinguished economic commentator, has just co-authored a book arguing that longer-term inflation will be much higher than the past 35 years. The reason for his view is highly unorthodox - and, in our opinion, correct.
A generation of great international economists is passing from the scene. Richard Cooper, Robert Mundell and John Williamson each made important contributions on a variety of topics including to the ongoing debate about optimal currency arrangements.
With a healthy consumer, accommodative policy, accelerating GDP and the potential for herd immunity from Covid-19, the risk of a US inflationary overshoot has increased. We believe any inflation scare, however, will be short-lived.
There is a growing debate about whether the inflation that will arise over the next few months will be temporary, reflecting the sharp bounce-back from the Covid-19 recession, or persistent, reflecting both demand-pull and cost-push factors.
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
Our diverse panel debated which of the high-conviction propositions they heard at Markets Summit 2021 resonated most strongly, which they disagreed with most - and the portfolio construction implications.
Often underrepresented in investor portfolios due to concerns around liquidity, private equity investing with a truly hands-on approach allows active investors to maximise their capital growth potential.
Rather than accepting lower returns for liquidity, investors should go back to the drawing board and re-assess their need for daily liquidity.
Fiscal stimulus and the vaccine have fuelled an extraordinary rally in equities - but, ultimately, stocks are at record highs because of extraordinarily low market interest rates. Investors should be wary of inflation, but also of being underweight equities.
Covid-accelerated trends - including digitalisation, geopolitical tension and the impact of ESG on the cost of capital - are structural and divergence within equity markets could increase.
With the official cash rate near zero, it's time to head back to the drawing board to find a more consistent source of income. Private debt provides a compelling alternative source of income in a portfolio.
De-carbonisation, company management and ESG scrutiny are diminishing the influence of commodity prices on resources alpha generation. If long term sentiment begins to turn, there is significantly more value to be found in the resources sector.
The 60/40 balanced portfolio needs to be “stretched” or redesigned, to mitigate the impact of low yields on overall portfolio risk and return. Investors need to make their equity allocation work harder and consider new diversifiers.
Supply chain decision makers must continue to focus on mitigating risk in 2021, not maximising growth. Political risks outbalance opportunities.
Structural factors will ensure that the cash rate cannot rise over the medium term, resulting in negligible cash returns. A core fixed income exposure consisting of Australian government bonds will outperform cash over the long term.
It's time to construct portfolios with investment strategies designed to advance humankind towards a global sustainable economy, a just society, and a better world.
During 2020, G-REITs experienced a once in a generation demand shock. With new building supply and REIT balance sheets in good shape, G-REITs are well positioned as economies reopen and demand returns. Now is the time for G-REITs.
The illiquidity premium offers strong value over the cyclical horizon. A combination of interest rate, credit and illiquidity risks provide diversified fixed income exposures with attractive return potential.
Believe in sustainable investing or not, investors need to understand its impact on investment returns and portfolio construction as capital markets stand on the cusp of a transformation to an ESG world.
Scale-as-a-service cloud computing platforms allow companies - both large and small - to get their IT infrastructure up and running in minutes. Over the next decade, this will have profound implications for the global economy.
The US, Australia and their allies have long depended on global "rules of the game" for their major companies and sectors to flourish. Australia and the US will have to accept that China will play an ever greater role shaping these rules.
As a tumultuous 2020 neared its end, the clouds of uncertainty appeared to be parting. Successful vaccine trials raised hopes that the Covid-19 pandemic would soon be over, the US election result promised a more geopolitical- and market-friendly presidency and government, and rebounding investor confidence fuelled a dramatic rotation into value stocks. Yet that confidence is already being tested in 2021 as new Covid variants take hold, doubts emerge about the efficacy of vaccinations, and the Democrats’ Senate win stirs fears of an aggressive spending, taxation, and regulatory agenda that’s not favourable to business. The geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate outlook remains unclear, yet stock markets continue to climb this wall of worry. It is time to pause, reflect and go back to the drawing board!
Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate outlook remains unclear, yet stock markets continue to climb this wall of worry. It is time to pause, reflect and go back to the drawing board! Markets Summit will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (geopolitical, economic and asset class), and the opportunities and risks ahead, on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
The Investment Management Analyst Certificate (IMAC) advances investment management analyst knowledge, skill and expertise in a definitive set of competencies necessary for building and/or advising on quality multi-manager portfolios. It is both a structured post-graduate certificate course in its own right, and the Australian-based Registered Education Program for the global Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) program.
I believe time allows signals to surface amidst the ubiquitous noise. In the spirit of Annie's "just thinking about tomorrow..." in which she pleads for us to "hang on 'til tomorrow, come what may," I present my 2021 predictions for the coming five years.