The RBA's latest and potential future interest rate cuts will do little to revive the Australian economy. The outlook for our Aussie neighbours is far from lucky.

Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative

The New Normal will "take you down" and lower expectations of future asset returns - maybe not "forever" but for a long, long time.

Bill Gross, PIMCO

Going into 2013, I'm significantly more positive about the outlook for US growth, notwithstanding the fiscal cliff, while I think China will continue to to grow at around 7%.

Jonathan Pain

Until we see the US producing at least 200,000 to 250,000 jobs a month, the Fed is likely keep rates low.

Russ Koesterich, BlackRock

I am not sure if this past week leaves us much the wiser regarding market issues, but here's my latest take...

Jim O'Neill

Demographics, workforce and trends are changing fast - and creating opportunities for financial advisers who move with the times.

David Maida, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 2 comments

The US GDP growth rate we've been used to for over a 100 years - in excess of 3% a year - is not just hiding behind temporary setbacks. It is gone forever.

Jeremy Grantham

Four key risks - the US fiscal cliff, EU debt crisis, global slowdown, and Middle East - are highly interconnected and yet to truly impact markets.

Nick Bullman, CheckRisk

Just after I write on the improved economic news in China and the US, it turns less constructive. But not as bad as Japan. The outlook for the Yen is highly asymmetric.

Jim O'Neill

We recommend moving to neutral risk weightings in portfolios until a favourable resolution of the US fiscal cliff becomes more likely. A malign outcome is a clear possibility.

Chris Watling

I question whether anything has materially changed as a result of the US election and Chinese leadership handover. I feared a US status quo, but perhaps things are different.

Jim O'Neill

The US election is over but the US economic crisis is so severe that the outcome barely mattered while both sides deny reality.

Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 2 comments

This month, a younger and better educated generation take power in China.

Linda Jakobson

Obama is back in, attention has turned to the fiscal cliff. Can we just ignore the economy and get on with investing?

Tim Farrelly | 3 comments

Everybody who communicates with the investing public needs to sound a warning: we're in a classic bubble.

Bob Veres, Inside Information

Despite a sluggish US economy, drift toward recession in Europe, and China slowdown, global monetary policy means equities will continue to outshine bonds.

Bill Priest, Epoch Investment Partners

How good are Chinese policymakers? US data creeping better. A pick up in global momentum...

Jim O'Neill | 1 comment

Are investors being paid enough to take on risk in the current market? Are systemic risks just as bad as in 2007? What is the best risk mitigator?

Nick Bullman, CheckRisk

How governments will reduce debt is the subject of considerable debate. One option seems most likely.

Tim Farrelly | 1 comment

Germany will not consider leaving the Eurozone unless the Euro threatens price stability. But this is a real risk.

Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group

The US is exporting coal, the West citizens is falling out of love with autos. Still bullish oil prices?

Jim O'Neill

Soft, albeit stable data for Septemer so far; world imbalances improving; protests aboard; Japan's issues getting bigger?; China, where it is also pouring; QE3/QE Infinity

Jim O'Neill

Videos, presentations, podcasts and papers from the jam-packed three day program featuring 50 international and local investment experts sharing their thoughts on the challenge of tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about constructing portfolios.

To make money in the next year, you have got to think in reverse. When it all boils down, there are really only two assets in the world economy.

Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group

The Fed seems to have shifted the balance of its twin mandate, prioritising reducing unemployment. Meanwhile, we are in the early days of a 'new' China...

Jim O'Neill

A growing chorus of (largely offshore) commentators has Australia falling into a pronounced slump. Are we on the edge of a precipice? No.

Tim Farrelly

Western equity markets have been in a secular bear market since the year 2000. Are we close to or indeed at the end?

Chris Watling

I have been doing lots of pondering, and there is one that has taken up more of my concerns than any other: China...

Jim O'Neill

Africa's economies are among the fastest growing in the world. Is it the next China?

Jonathan Pain

The key takeouts, and actions to take when building investor portfolios.

Chris Watling, Tim Farrelly, Michael Kitces

Seven areas where thinking outside the box may lead to different portfolio construction decisions.

Tim Farrelly | 1 comment

Challenging a strong home bias to Australian equities in portfolios.

Chris Watling

Globalisation, the rise of China and technology have profoundly increased competitive pressures on business. This dynamic is critical in equity investment...

Chris Selth, Five Oceans Asset Management

Fixed income investing for the future will need to be different from the past in order to maximise portfolio outcomes...

Victor Rodriguez, Aberdeen Asset Management

The short- and long-term structural factors remain intact to drive Asian stock markets...

Eng Teck Tan, TAAM

Treating emerging markets as a single asset class can underpin long-term capital growth, preservation of capital and lower volatility of returns...

Luis Oliveira, Capital International

Unlisted property is well-suited to the mood of investors – it should provide a return derived largely from income. The issue is the scars of the past...

John Taylor, Centuria

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Steven Halmarick shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Steven Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset Management

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, PIMCO's Bill Gross shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Bill Gross, PIMCO

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Hamish Douglass shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Anthony Bolton shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Anthony Bolton, Fidelity Worldwide Investments

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Dr Woody Brock shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Woody Brock | 1 comment

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Cliff Asness shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios.

Cliff Asness, AQR Capital Management

What are the implications for portfolios, of China's leadership change and the political and economic challenges in the US and Europe?

Pippa Malmgren and Linda Jakobson

This 2012 Conference session showed that major investment risk events occur in clusters, and focused on how to prioritise risk to achieve better investment decisions.

Nick Bullman, Piers Bolger, Greg Cooper, Michael Kitces, and Tim Farrelly,

Dividend-yield strategies have outperformed in up and down markets, making them more of an all-weather approach than many may think...

Ian Link, Wellington Management Company

The process of reallocation to EM bonds is likely to accelerate, creating more liquidity and stability, and adding to their attractiveness for retirement income needs...

Ramin Toloui, PIMCO

Global tactical asset allocation is a strategy that is well tailored to the new paradigm, generating excess returns with low volatility in both bull and bear markets...

Caroline Saunders, Barclays

The deleveraging cycle is creating a conundrum for investors and asset managers. Investors want more income but with less risk...

Tim McGowen, PM Capital

The search for yield has never been more difficult. Can income-oriented managed funds compete with direct equities and ETFs?

Don Hamson, Plato Investment Management

Exploring how to augment traditional portfolio construction techniques though better understanding of how asset classes' correlate in particular bonds and equities...

Vimal Gor

With unprecedented political risk, debt, and economic restructuring around the world, our expert panel debated the portfolio construction implications.

David Hale, Ian Link, Vimal Gor, Ramin Touloui, Chris Watling

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Dr Joanne Warner shares her views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Global Asset Management

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Michael Hasenstab shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Prof Jack Gray shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Prof Jack Gray, UTS

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Alan Brown shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Alan Brown, Schroders

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Prof Amin Rajan shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Amin Rajan

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Prof Toby Moskowitz of Chicago University shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...

Prof Toby Moskowitz, University of Chicago

China is reeling from the aftermath of a political earthquake of moderate magnitude - the damage is noticeable and the risk of aftershocks lingers...

Linda Jakobson

The mechanics of solving Europe's crisis are in place. The US's fiscal position is considerably worse and holds greater uncertainty...

Chris Watling | 1 comment

Picking up where he left of in February at the Markets Summit, Russ explains his expectations for the markets for the remainder of 2012...

Russ Koesterich, iShares

This one just won't go away. Central to this is the idea that the limiting factor behind bank lending is enough cash to lend out. It is just wrong...

Tim Farrelly | 9 comments

Linda was the highest rated speaker at Conference 2011. Here she begins a series of thought pieces exclusive to PortfolioConstruction Forum on developments in China...

Linda Jakobson | 2 comments

PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium is a unique professional development program designed and presented specifically for NZ practitioners who focus on giving quality investment advice. The two-day program featured leading local and international investment professionals presenting on contemporary and emerging portfolio construction issues around the three pillars for building better quality investor portfolios - markets, strategies and investing.

This Academy Seminar debates the following three topics in a Socratic learning environment: Better the devil you know; Demystifying quantitative equity investing; and, Investment Fables IV - Growth.

For a valuation driven rally in risk markets to be sustained for anything more than a week or so, the global credit system has to revive. This six point plan could achieve that...

Andrew Hunt, Andrew Hunt Economics

A usual criticism of modelling tools is the assumption that returns are normally distributed. But black swans seem to be a short-term phenomenon...

Michael Kitces | 6 comments

There are really only two words to discuss - Greece and Spain - and the implications for Australian cash rates, bond yields and equity markets - and, of course, portfolios.

Jonathan Pain | 2 comments

This Critical Issues Forum discussed the key macro-economic and geopolitical issues we cannot afford to lose sight of in constructing portfolios, before turning to the current status, key issue and outlook for global equity markets...

PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium featuring Jonathan Pain & Hamish Douglass

MPT has been misapplied for the past 60 years. In this Critical Issues Forum, Michael Kitces argued that markets are not efficient, but they are adaptive - so appropriate use of MPT requires forward-looking projections. This requires more work to apply effectively, but can lead to portfolios that are more efficient and give better risk/return trade-offs.

PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium featuring Michael Kitces

The tectonic plates of the world economy are shifting. This Critical Issues Forum argued that Europe is not just in a financial crisis, but also a social, political and demographic decline. Will the Euro break up? Can Asia save us?

PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium featuring Dr Oliver Hartwich

Two retail fund analysts have been awarded scholarships by Blackrock Investment Management and PortfolioConstruction Forum to attend the prestigious CIMA Program...

Investment Management Consultants Association Australia

The prevailing wisdom is that tensions with Iran have caused oil prices to rise recently. But there's
a much greater long-term threat shaping investment opportunities...

Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives

Politics are messy. Reforms have stalled. The economy is slowing. Some question whether India's economic miracle is over.

Dr Taimur Baig & Aberdeen Asset Management

The Japanese house price experience of the past two decades remains a real possibility for many countries including Australia...

Chris Watling | 5 comments

The biggest myth that investors believe about China is that its economy is primarily driven by exports. Two charts debunk this misconception...

Andy Rothman & Frank Holmes

This Academy Seminar debates the following three topics in a Socratic learning environment: Investment fables III - Value; What does financial success look like in retirement; and, Turning micro China observations into macro insights.

Mssrs Henry, Murray and Tanner are successful in their fields. But none has a background in financial planning or investment management. It shows.

Tim Farrelly | 2 comments

Despite the decision by the US Fed to postpone another round of quantitative easing, two questions remain unanswered as to the appropriateness of QE...

Ivan Trofimov, van Eyk | 1 comment

Key themes playing out in the market at present include the ECB's LTRO, ongoing recovery in the USA, the rise of the Eastern consumer and a secular move to e-commerce and electronic payments...

Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group

Last week, I visited Shanghai and Beijing. The most intriguing insight relates to the longer term sustainability of China’s economic growth model.

Chris Watling

Woody is one of the world's leading economic thinkers. He view is that China is the worst case of currency manipulation in history.

Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives

While we tend to focus on sharp market crashes, sudden declines that recover quickly within just a year or few are not necessarily problematic. What is far more destructive are extended periods of mediocre returns...

Michael Kitces

The US dollar has proved to be the Comeback Currency in the past - and there are early signs that it could stage another comeback. However, the A$ looks set for big drops before the end of 2012.

Jonathan Davies & Matthew Richards, UBS Asset Management

The prevailing expectation is that we’re in for a period of lower returns and significant volatility. In this exclusive interview, Michael Turner, Head of Quantitative Research & Analysis with FRM in London discusses how a CTA fund can contribute to portfolios in such an environment...

This Academy Seminar debates the following three topics in a Socratic learning environment: Investment fables II - Momentum; Making sense of Markets Summit; and, Developing a robust philosophy and policy...

For decades, long-only equities has been “king”, the dominant component of most long-term investors’ portfolios. But, the King has been overthrown in recent years, and cash has assumed the throne as investors have flocked to its supposed safety. Cash is King - but is just it a pretender to the throne? Markets Summit 2012 debated how long cash will remain King, how other asset classes will fare against it over the coming three years – and how we can do better than cash when building quality investor portfolios…

The Hot Topic Debate at the 2012 Markets Summit focused on the case for and against including gold in portfolios. Is gold a good means of portfolio diversification and protection, as well as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation? Or is it, as those in the opposing corner argue, that the last decade is an anomaly for gold and it has no place in portfolios...

PortfolioConstruction Forum - featuring Laurie McGuirk & Jack Gray

The inaugural Peter L Bernstein Memorial Lecture at the 2012 Markets Summit focused on Zombie Economics. The GFC exposed the flaws in many of the assumptions behind market liberalism - in most cases, problems were evident well before the GFC, but those who pointed them out were dismissed or ignored. These dead ideas still walk among us...

PortfolioConstruction Forum - featuring Prof John Quiggin

This session helped delegates determine the key takeouts from the Markets Summit, and actions to take when building investor portfolios...

Tim Farrelly & Chris Watling

This Asset Class Forum session at the 2012 Markets Summit saw our presenters and Inquisitors debate the outlook for the Australian debt and equities market, REIT market, Asian equities market and global commodities market, and the portfolio construction implications...

The 2012-2014 outlook for the global commodities market versus cash, the risks and opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Chris Watling

The 2012-2014 outlook for the Asian equities market versus cash, the risks and opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Eng Teck Tan, TAAM

The outlook for the REITs vs cash, risks and opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Andrew Parsons

This Asset Class Forum session at the 2012 Markets Summit focused on the 2012-2014 outlook for the Australian equities market, including the most likely scenario, performance v cash, risks and opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Ian Harding, Wavestone Capital

The 2012-2014 outlook for the Australian debt market, versus cash, the risks and opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Victor Rodriguez, Aberdeen

This Big Picture Forum session at the 2012 Markets Summit saw our presenters and Inquisitors debate the outlook for the global developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities markets, and the portfolio construction implications...

The 2012-2014 outlook for the global emerging market equity markets, risks and opportunities, and the portfolio construction implications...

Bill Priest, Epoch Investment Partners

The 2012-2014 outlook for the global emerging market equity markets, risks, opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Allan Conway, Schroders

This Big Picture Forum session at the 2012 Markets Summit saw our presenters and Inquisitors debate the outlook for the global economy and global debt markets, and the portfolio construction implications...

The outlook for the global debt markets relative to cash, risks and opportunities, and portfolio construction implications...

Scott Mather, PIMCO

The 2012-2014 outlook for the global economy with particular emphasis on the US and Europe, key scenarios and portfolio construction implications...

Russ Koesterich, iShares

The year 2011 saw modest earnings growth of 5% overwhelmed by price to earnings contraction of -15%. It would be hard to imagine that 2012 will be another similar year unless something major or unexpected occurs...

Ian Harding, Wavestone Capital

2011 was a disappointing year for equity markets in Asia ex-Japan, recording negative returns and underperforming the developed market peers - however the outlook for Asian equity markets in the short term (one year) and longer term (three years) is promising...

Eng Teck Tan, TAAM Asia Pacific Investments

Investors need to major in three subjects to get asset allocation right in 2012 - plus, they would do well to study psychology.

A Koester & M Richards, UBS Asset Management

This subscriber-only area gives you access to the recording of the quarterly farrelly's subscriber webinar in which principal Tim Farrelly explains the thinking behind the quarterly update to the Proactive Asset Allocation tool set.