1. Is swapping volatility risk for longevity risk the right strategy?

    Given increasing longevity, it's important that retirees not ignore strategies that can generate long-term capital growth. In short, retirees need to re-examine the role of equities in their portfolio.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 16-12-16 | More
  2. The winds of change - two chapters ahead

    I think of two winds of change. The first is a fundamental change in the direction of global monetary policy. The second is technology. For now, though, we really need to think about the first.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 14-12-16 | More
  3. Incentives approach for NZ's new PM

    Prime Minister English could differentiate his government by focusing on housing affordability to transform the lives of millions of New Zealanders.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 13-12-16 | 1 comment | More
  4. Bank hybrids are not equities...

    Another major licensee has reportedly fallen for the hybrid scare campaigns, insisting bank hybrids securities be treated as equities. The premise is hopelessly flawed.

    Tim Farrelly | 12-12-16 | 11 comments | More
  5. Niall Ferguson - a busy year for historians

    2016 was a bumper year for history. But actually, it's just history as normal, says historian Niall Ferguson. And neither the Trump election nor Brexit signals the end of globalisation.

    Nathan Smith, National Business Review | 12-12-16 | More
  6. Bond market turmoil in a Trumpian economy

    Many worry that "the new normal" may be over, that the peak of the bond market has been reached, and so forth. We agree in part with this new view and offer some pointers to help navigate the bond market shoals ahead.

    Woody Brock | 01-12-16 | More
  7. An end to the Mae West approach to monetary policy

    In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, Central Banks have taken a Mae West approach to monetary accommodation. If a little is good, and more is better, then too much is just right. What happens when it ends?

    Jason Thomas | 29-11-16 | More
  8. US will maintain a thoughtful distance amid disorder

    Growing US scepticism on international free-trade and defence agreements is rational in an unstable world, according to US geopolitical forecaster and author, George Friedman.

    Will Jackson | 28-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  9. Fleeing from Italy

    Following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK Brexit referendum and of Donald Trump in the US election, focus has shifted to the upcoming referendum in Italy. There is a disquieting real-time poll of investor sentiment.

    Carmen Reinhart | 25-11-16 | More
  10. Trump rally - genuine growth or groupthink gamble?

    I wonder whether this post-Trump market rally and associated bullish economic and market narrative will come to be seen as one of the more prominent historical examples of poorly timed and lazy market groupthink.

    Dominic McCormick | 16-11-16 | 2 comments | More
  11. The new economic reality show

    Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

    Jonathan Pain | 11-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  12. Give Trump a chance

    According to most commentators, Trump's election signifies the end of the West, the international post-War framework, or the United States. I beg to differ.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 11-11-16 | More
  13. Which way for US-China relations?

    Trump must now choose between cooperation and confrontation as the framework for US policy toward China. His choice should be obvious.

    Minghao Zhao, Charhar Institute | 10-11-16 | More
  14. Why Trump could be good for markets

    Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit maximiser. This could be the most business and financial markets friendly regime in a long time.

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 10-11-16 | More
  15. Five ways Trump could move markets

    A Trump administration means a significant shift in Washington policy for at least the next four years. There are five key areas in which Trump's policy decisions could have an economic impact.

    Matt Miller, Capital Group | 10-11-16 | More
  16. US election - the investment implications

    Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal spending, and protecting entitlements at current levels. What are the investment implications?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 10-11-16 | More
  17. Big danger at the lower bound

    Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 03-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  18. Middle class matters

    Five years after the Euro crisis, it's not just Europe we’re concerned about from a populist perspective but also the US and UK. Why is this is a real risk for investors?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 02-11-16 | More
  19. BREXIT - 1453 all over again?

    Over the span of history, there are few years that can genuinely be considered as years on which the history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for the UK.

    Chris Watling | 31-10-16 | 1 comment | More
  20. Do the emperors wear clothes?

    The belief that innovative and extremely easy monetary policy on its own would restore a suitable level of economic growth and inflation was wrong, both in theory and in practice.

    Woody Brock | 28-10-16 | More
  21. Toxic politics versus better economics

    Until recently, the expectation was that if professional economists achieved a technocratic consensus on a given policy approach, political leaders would listen.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 28-10-16 | More
  22. How much should we have in resource stocks?

    The Australian sharemarket’s high weight to resource stocks is an accident of history and geography. A lower than market cap weight to resource stocks in portfolios seems much more sensible.

    Tim Farrelly | 14-10-16 | More
  23. Wanted: A counter-populism strategy

    The IMF is right to warn that populism poses a serious threat to the global economy. What is really worrying is It is no longer only populists of Donald Trump's ilk who are delivering it. Mainstream politicians increasingly sound populist too.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 13-10-16 | 1 comment | More
  24. Forecasting US recessions - what works and what doesn't

    Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.

    Chris Watling | 05-10-16 | More
  25. Geopolitics and the consequences of choice

    The gravest geopolitical challenge is not terrorism, or the Middle East, or Brexit, but a possible eruption between China and the US, the world's two largest economies and militaries. It is always when the most powerful countries clash that the world is altered fundamentally.

    Stephen Kotkin, Princeton University | 30-09-16 | More
  26. Desperate central bankers

    The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

    Stephen Roach | 27-09-16 | 1 comment | More
  27. The return of fiscal policy

    Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

    Nouriel Roubini | 26-09-16 | More
  28. The economic trend is our friend

    Economic growth since 2008 has been profoundly disappointing. But if we look at global economic growth over the next 30 to 60 years, the picture looks much brighter.

    J. Bradford DeLong | 08-09-16 | More
  29. Monetary reform - looking in the wrong places

    Zero, and especially negative, nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.

    Robert Gay | 05-09-16 | More
  30. The long and short of it - key takeouts

    Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

    Will Jackson | 01-09-16 | More
  31. 2016 Conference - Webcast

    Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

    30-08-16 | More
  32. You don't own enough global small caps

    Investors can harness the long-run benefits of active satellites like global small caps to drive better portfolio outcomes despite volatile markets.

    Rob Failla, Lazard Asset Management | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  33. Global Equity Income - timing not time in that counts

    While not traditionally known for income, there are thousands of dividend income opportunities among global companies which can provide income similar to Australian shares.

    Don Hamson, Plato Investment Management | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  34. Over inflated long duration assets will lose you money

    Real assets including real estate have overinflated valuations. Investors need to understand the frame work necessary to manage the trade-off between shorter term returns and longer term risks.

    Stephen Hayes, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  35. Spurn the supernova and fight the fear of fixed income

    With global yields at record lows, bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn that talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

    Jeff Grow, UBS Asset Management | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  36. Mind the Gap: 2-3 years is the most fertile hunting ground

    With most market participants distracted by short-term noise or focused on mean reversion of long-term valuations, the gap in the middle is an under-researched and fertile hunting ground.

    David Millar, Invesco Perpetual | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  37. Infrastructure provides reliable earning irrespective of crises

    Provided investors define infrastructure in a disciplined manner, investment in infrastructure will continue to deliver investors reliable earnings over time.

    Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  38. Use centuries of investment wisdom in portfolios today

    For all the wisdom of four centuries of investing, not much has changed in financial markets. Boom and bust cycles still exist and speculation is higher than ever. But the Prudent Man Rule from 1830 can serve as a useful anchor for investors.

    Jan Sytze Mosselaar, Robeco | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  39. Panel: Geopolitics - East Asia and the US election

    This panel debated the high conviction thesis that the key geopolitical risk of the times is tension between China, the US and South East Asian countries, as well as the impact of the US election on markets.

    Panel | 25-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  40. Geopolitical risk? Ignore terrorism, focus on East Asia

    Geopolitical tensions between China, the US, and countries of South East Asia are growing. Most investors dismiss the region as a risk. But we are at a precipice of a left-tail risk event.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 25-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  41. Unfavourable candidates can be favourable for the US economy

    There has never been a more divisive US election season than the one we are witnessing right now. While the rhetoric and opinion polls are captivating on a weekly basis, the long game is what matters.

    Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  42. This time is not different, we’re just predisposed to think so

    Markets are volatile and events are unprecedented – or at least that’s what we’re told and have been conditioned to believe. Times and markets are volatile, but they always have been and they always will be.

    Philippe Jordan, Capital Fund Management | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  43. It is time to go long Australian banks

    Australian banks face a number of headwinds - they are real, but could better be described as zephyrs. The market has overreacted. Buy the banks.

    Tim Farrelly | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  44. High returns with low risk is possible in a low/negative yield world

    It is possible to generate high returns with low risk irrespective of where short-term cash rates or long-term government bond yields may be.

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  45. Data has and will continue to revolutionise financial markets

    Finding patterns in data to make money in falling or rising markets relies on an empirical, skeptical, scientific mindset to identify signals.

    Mitesh Patel, Winton Capital Management | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  46. Headlines battle facts, but fundamentals will prevail

    As an investor, allowing yourself to be distracted by quick interpretation of market dynamics will lead to poor allocation decisions. Ultimately, fundamentals will win out for long-term investors.

    James Swanson, MFS Investment Management | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  47. Demographics does not mean dull

    Demographic trends give a solid basis from which to forecast beyond the usual two-year time horizon. Demographic layering of equity investment decisions can be a powerful structural growth tool as well as a strong risk mitigator.

    Alva Devoy, Fidelity International | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  48. Long-term investing a fool's paradise

    Finance principles tell investors to buy good companies at attractive prices and they should perform over the long term. But what worked last century won't necessarily stand true this century.

    Sean Fenton, Tribeca Investment Partners | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  49. Traditional asset allocation fails to capture long-term trends

    Rapid technological innovation, affordable communication, and demographic shifts are reshaping the world. The traditional country/regional approach to asset allocation is not optimal for capturing these new opportunities.

    Luis Oliveira, Capital Group | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  50. Not all Australian income funds fit for purpose

    Australia’s bond market has evolved over time. As it grows and sub-sectors emerge, investor must ask – is my defensive allocation true-to-label?

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  51. Panel: Global policy rates will stay low for the rest of the decade

    This panel debated the high conviction thesis that global policy rates will stay low for the rest of the decade and what forces that could change that outlook.

    Panel | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  52. Global policy rates will stay low for the rest of the decade

    Yellen and the market (EDZ8) agree – there is a New Neutral. The result? Global policy rates will stay low for the rest of the decade. Only a handful of major forces that could change this outlook.

    Tony Crescenzi | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  53. The past is passive, the future is definitely active

    Passive investment has flourished since the GFC but we are entering a new environment where active management will thrive. The opportunity for practitioners to add value has gone up significantly.

    Charles Carroll, Lazard Asset Management | 24-08-16 | More
  54. The long and short of it

    Investing is supposed to be about the incremental replacement of human capital with financial capital over the long term. But today's environment and our behavioural biases conspire against such a pure case.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  55. Global equity income - it's timing not time in that counts

    Despite interest rates being at historic lows, there are thousands of dividend income opportunities amongst global companies that can provide income for a desirable retirement lifestyle.

    Plato Investment Management | 19-08-16 | More
  56. Backgrounder: The long and short of it

    Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

    PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-08-16 | More
  57. Focus on change – the search for equity alpha

    Change is pervasive, whether at macro, sector or stock level. This argues for an approach that does not favour any particular investment style.

    Standard Life Investments | 19-08-16 | More
  58. Do you own enough global small caps?

    A satellite allocation to global small caps can increase portfolio efficiency over the long term.

    Lazard Asset Management | 19-08-16 | More
  59. Investment horizon is a key risk/return driver in infrastructure

    The listed infrastructure market provides investors with a broad, deep and liquid range of infrastructure investment opportunities.

    RARE Infrastructure | 19-08-16 | More
  60. Long term investing is a fool's paradise

    A range of cognitive biases leads investors to generally overestimate their skill. A long-term investment strategy simply compounds this problem. A long-short investment structure can improve outcomes.

    Tribeca Investment Partners | 19-08-16 | 1 comment | More
  61. Infrastructure - reliable earnings irrespective of crises

    The infrastructure asset class, when defined in a disciplined manner, generates reliable earnings - and for the foreseeable future, earnings of infrastructure assets should continue to be reliable.

    Magellan Asset Management | 19-08-16 | More
  62. Not all Australian income funds are fit for purpose

    As the Australian bond market grows and sub-sectors emerge, investor must ask – is my defensive allocation true-to-label?

    C Jamieson, A Coote & P Chin, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 19-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  63. The changing face of global companies

    A new breed of companies – creative, nimble and networked – offer a powerful investment opportunity. Investors need to consider diversifying domestic exposures to access this set of long-term opportunities.

    Andy Budden | 19-08-16 | More
  64. Spurn the supernova & fixed in-come fear

    Bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn this talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

    UBS Asset Management | 15-08-16 | More
  65. Equities in historical perspective - investor behavior since 1602

    Since the birth of the modern stock market in 1602, investment culture has moved from a return focus to a risk focus, and back. What can investors in the 21st century learn from four centuries of investment history?

    Jan Sytze Mosselaar & Pim van Vliet, Robeco | 11-08-16 | More
  66. Globalisation is the only answer

    Public distrust of global integration is on the rise. But no country can deliver long-term prosperity to its people on its own. Closer international cooperation and economic integration is the only way forward.

    Anabel Gonzalez, World Bank Group | 10-08-16 | 1 comment | More
  67. Globalisation and its new discontents

    Globalisation's early opponents in emerging and developing countries have been joined by tens of millions in advanced countries. The rules of the game need to be changed – and this must include measures to tame globalisation.

    Joseph Stiglitz | 09-08-16 | More
  68. Mind the gap

    Considering structural and cyclical drivers can help reveal investment opportunities, if an appropriate timeframe is defined. A two- to three-year period is an under researched view.

    Georgina Taylor & Danielle Singer, Invesco Perpetual | 05-08-16 | More
  69. Europe's Brexit hangover

    The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.

    Nouriel Roubini | 03-08-16 | More
  70. The 2016 mid-year geopolitical outlook

    There are five geopolitically important issues for portfolios for the upcoming year. If these concerns become critical, they will likely weigh on equities and higher credit risk debt.

    Bill O'Grady, Confluence Investment Management | 02-08-16 | More
  71. 26 years without a recession. Or six? Or maybe only two?

    How long is it since Australia had a recession? Most would say 26 years. A world record. By looking at the data a little differently, we may not be so sure that Australia has gone 26 years without a hiccup.

    Tim Farrelly | 01-08-16 | 6 comments | More
  72. Central banks encourage irrational hedonism

    How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at an unknowable future date?

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 29-07-16 | 1 comment | More
  73. Trump, Presidential powers and investment implications

    What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 27-07-16 | More
  74. The globalisation disconnect

    While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.

    Stephen Roach | 26-07-16 | More
  75. Brexit, populism and Trump

    Populism in developed countries is real, but there are meaningful differences between the UK and US stories that are important to keep in mind in the run-up to US Presidential election.

    Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 25-07-16 | More
  76. Britain heads for a "hard" Brexit

    With Remainers now accepting the argument that Britain should keep Europeans out, the UK is headed for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but from Europe's single market. It will cost the country dearly.

    Kevin O’Rourke, University of Oxford | 21-07-16 | More
  77. A comment on BREXIT

    The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.

    Woody Brock | 07-07-16 | More
  78. QE and ZIRP have introduced massive distortions?

    QE has caused massive investment distortions. Ditto the ZIRP and NIRP policies of many central banks. Beware - the chickens are coming home to roost! It seems plausible, but...

    Tim Farrelly | 05-07-16 | More
  79. US elections have been good for long-term investors

    As the battle for the White House heats up, candidates are drawing attention to the challenges facing the nation. But whatever the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election, we believe the impact on markets will be about the same.

    Capital Group | 04-07-16 | More
  80. Inside Brexit

    I previously worked with the London think tank closely linked to David Cameron and his Tory modernisers. It was fascinating for me to watch Brexit from afar. Here's my take on what we've just witnessed.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 01-07-16 | More
  81. Reforming the Referendum

    The lesson from Brexit is clear - put questions to a popular vote only when there can be no misunderstanding about how much (or how little) is at stake. The Brexit referendum failed that test.

    Christopher Granville, Trusted Sources | 30-06-16 | More
  82. The coming EXITentialist crisis

    The Brexit referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration. What's next for the UK? Who is next to exit? What does this mean for broader global stability? And - most importantly - what are investment implications?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 27-06-16 | More
  83. Learning from Namibia

    Since winning independence from South Africa in 1990, this country of 2.4 million people has achieved enormous gains, especially in the last couple of years.

    Joseph E. Stiglitz & Anya Schiffrin, Columbia University | 16-06-16 | More
  84. The Australian equities X factor

    Everybody is an Australian equities expert, understandably so for those who live in Australia. But the X factor in Australian equities portfolios is concentration risk.

    Charlie Lanchester, BlackRock | 14-06-16 | More
  85. Challenges in building portfolios today (and what to do)

    The current investment environment is arguably one of the toughest ever in which to build portfolios that deliver return and are robust into the future. There are a range of approaches that can be taken.

    Dominic McCormick | 09-06-16 | 1 comment | More
  86. Populists and productivity

    The view prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs is that we are entering a new golden era of innovation which will radically increase productivity growth. Why haven't those gains appeared?

    Nouriel Roubini | 07-06-16 | More
  87. Why take an interest in Africa's rise?

    "Africa rising" has been a catchphrase since the beginning of this century. It is the idea that Africa, and especially Sub-Saharan Africa, could be to the 21st century what South-East Asia was to the second half of the 20th century.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 06-06-16 | More
  88. 10 "Gray Swans"

    By definition, Black Swans are unknowable - they should surprise us. But here are 10 "gray swans" complicating the outlook for markets and portfolio construction.

    Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors | 03-06-16 | More
  89. How much risk do equities contribute to diversified strategies?

    Many have spoken of the significant risks funds carry with Australian equities exposures. So I thought I'd check the evidence on the influence of equities on multi-asset portfolios.

    Michael Furey | 02-06-16 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  90. Insanity

    Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results. Central bankers seem intent on repeating their mistakes - especially when it comes to negative interest rates.

    Robert Gay | 01-06-16 | More
  91. East Asia tensions simmer

    Investors are not accounting for the structural shifts taking place in East Asia that raise the probability of market-negative events. Asia- or EM-dedicated investors should hedge their risks by exposure to DM assets.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 30-05-16 | More
  92. The global recovery is here - but may yet be derailed

    Economists and investors risk being blindsided by a global upswing that is already underway, financial historian Professor Niall Ferguson explained at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016.

    Will Jackson | 27-05-16 | More
  93. 2016 Symposium - Resources Kit

    Symposium facilitates featured a stellar line up of 20 international and local experts - including special guest keynote, Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, internationally renowned economic and financial historian - offering their expert, high conviction ideas to help build better quality investor portfolios.

    27-05-16 | More
  94. How not to be blindsided by the retirement investment challenge

    Presented in a format that incorporates a game, this workshop explored the risk factors that drive retirement portfolio outcomes.

    John Valtwies & Manusha Samaraweera, PIMCO | 18-05-16 | 0.75 CE | More
  95. Size does matter when investing in India's growth

    India’s demographic dividend creates a significant market opportunity for corporates operating within the ecosystem. But size really does matter, leading to the potential for unparalleled revenue growth.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  96. Right now inflation is the most important macro indicator

    Central bankers successfully tamed inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Persistently low inflation is the new problem. With markets complacent about the inflation outlook, signs of inflation could create a scare.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  97. Reach goals despite -ve rates

    Investors are slowly awakening to the threat that negative interest rates globally pose to their goals. Diversified funds need a higher mix of growth assets, and TAA should be applied.

    Paul Richardson, Mint Asset Management | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  98. Currency is the ultimate alternative

    The currency exposure embedded in foreign equity portfolios exposes portfolios to a great deal of noise. Used productively, the opportunity it represents can be captured as the ultimate "alternative asset".

    Dori Levanoni, First Quadrant | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  99. Key takeouts from Symposium 2016 day one - markets

    Each panelist outlined the high conviction idea they agreed with most from the prior day, and the portfolio construction implications. Then delegates worked in tables to determine the same.

    18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  100. Symposium 2016 - The Great Debate

    Our Symposium 2016 Faculty debated two high conviction ideas from the first day's program - firstly, the idea that delegates agreed with most and then, the idea delegates disagreed with most.

    Symposium 2016 Great Debate Panel | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  101. Don't believe what you hear – this is a high return environment

    While record low interest rates worldwide (negative in many countries) mean low returns on government bonds, it doesn't necessarily mean low returns across the board. This is not a time to be fearful.

    Tim Farrelly | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  102. The end of EUrope as we know it

    The EU has been in crisis for many years. But if you thought it could not get worse for Europe, you ain't seen nothing yet! 2016 might well signify the end of Europe's process of integration.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  103. China’s rapid growth is unsustainable

    China's growth has become reliant on credit stimulus and a related property bubble. This is coming unstuck. The risks to the global economy and markets are significant.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  104. In a period of sustained sluggishness, quality companies are key

    The tepid recovery from 2008's GFC has surprised almost everyone. Investing in this low growth world requires a very selective stock picking approach, and suggests focusing on value and quality.

    Hugh Giddy, Investors Mutual | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  105. Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios

    Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios. The use of a modified Piotroski indicator as an indicator or screen for equities can significantly add to investment performance in NZ and Australia.

    Andrew Bascand, Harbour Asset Management | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  106. The hidden consequences of low interest rates for portfolios

    If you see one cockroach, you haven't seen them all. That's a very important concept today for managing diversified portfolios. We see one cockroach – low interest rates, but what we don't see is the hidden consequences throughout portfolios.

    Simon Stevenson, Schroders | 17-05-16 | More
  107. Secular stagnation or inflection point? A historical perspective on the post-crisis world

    With a growing number of central banks resorting to negative interest rates and the IMF acknowledging the risk of secular stagnation, investors could be forgiven for feeling nervous. Yet there is some evidence that the global economy may be at an inflection point.

    Niall Ferguson | 17-05-16 | More
  108. Secular stagnation or inflection point? The post-crisis world in historical perspective

    With a growing number of central banks resorting to negative interest rates and the IMF acknowledging the risk of secular stagnation, investors could be forgiven for feeling nervous. Yet there is some evidence that the global economy may be at an inflection point.

    Niall Ferguson | 17-05-16 | 1.25 CE | More
  109. Going negative - rethink investing in a world of low returns

    Nearly every investor is confronting the challenge of how to invest in a low growth, low return environment. Investors must rethink portfolio construction.

    David Fisher, PIMCO | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  110. Time to sell/short beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield debt cycle into unchartered territory. It is approaching shakeout - with long/short opportunities amongst the beneficiaries of the current cycle.

    Jacob Mitchell | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  111. Ride the cycle but structural weakness will come to matter more

    Investors need to be wary that without much needed reform, structural weaknesses in many advanced and developing economies will be the ultimate determinant of longer-term returns.

    Bevan Graham, AMP Capital NZ | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  112. Pay attention to geo-politics when making investment decisions

    The world seems an increasingly dangerous place, driven by uncertainty and conflict. Yet on many measures, the world is becoming safer. More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and consider emerging geo-political developments shaping the world.

    Dr Keith Suter, Global Directions | 17-05-16 | 0.75 CE | 4 comments | More
  113. China's rapid growth is not sustainable

    China's credit-fuelled investment growth phase is reaching its end game and new sources of growth are needed to drive the economy.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 14-05-16 | More
  114. Sustained sluggishness

    Most economists continue to view the economic future as more rosy (if their forecasts of economic acceleration are any guide) while the Fed is implicitly saying the same by raising rates and forecasting further rate rises. But there are three main reasons caution.

    Hugh Giddy, Investors Mutual | 12-05-16 | More
  115. Make sense of geo-politics for investment decisions

    More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and consider the geo-political developments which are shaping the world.

    Dr Keith Suter, Global Directions | 12-05-16 | 1 comment | More
  116. Right now inflation is the most important macroeconomic indicator

    Markets are focused on the economic cycle as an indicator of central bank actions. But inflation should be the most important macro indicator on the radar of investors.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 12-05-16 | More
  117. "Debt bubble economics" rules

    Australia is increasingly resorting to "debt bubble economics" - exactly what caused bubbles and major busts in the US and other economies in recent decades.

    Dominic McCormick | 06-05-16 | 1 comment | More
  118. The world will bounce back after the blues in the loos

    George Soros may be wrong about global deflation for four reasons. But if Trump wins the Republican nomination and then the presidency, all bets will be off.

    Niall Ferguson | 05-05-16 | More
  119. US recovery - entering a new phase

    Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened that the US economic recovery is moving into a new phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of growth.

    Ronald Temple | 29-04-16 | More
  120. Brexit now and we'll only have to Breturn

    The lesson of history is that British isolationism is a trigger for continental disintegration. A vote for Brexit will mean Britain will have to "Breturn" sooner or later, to sort out the ensuing mess.

    Niall Ferguson | 27-04-16 | More
  121. In defense of the Chinese Yuan

    Notwithstanding an extended period of stability this year, the Chinese Yuan remains fairly high on investors' lists of global risk factors. Perceptions of vulnerability remain and are worth addressing.

    Robert Gay | 26-04-16 | More
  122. The US election - sound the trumpets?

    We expect the US election to start mattering to markets at the end of August, once the two candidates are chosen. Policy uncertainty will rise and the US equity risk premium with it.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 18-04-16 | More
  123. ZIRP & NIRP - killing retirement as we know it

    Retirees and their pensions are being sacrificed for what now passes as "the greater good." ZIRP has created a massive problem for retirement savers and pension fund managers. NIRP will make their problem worse.

    John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics | 15-04-16 | More
  124. News that should shock nobody

    I awoke to read three pieces in the papers. These items contained news that would have surprised nobody, had global economic and market commentators been doing their job of properly interpreting the news.

    Woody Brock | 14-04-16 | More
  125. farrelly's Investment Strategy

    farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...

    Tim Farrelly | 14-04-16 | More
  126. An ECB dead end

    You may have concluded by now that the euro crisis is over. If you are a realist, however, you would be looking at two figures and know that we are still right in the middle of the euro crisis. And it has become permanent.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 07-04-16 | More
  127. Unconventional unconventional monetary policy

    Unconventional monetary policies have themselves become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have to continue their fight with a new set of "unconventional unconventional" policies.

    Nouriel Roubini | 04-04-16 | More
  128. When things fall apart

    The economic theories of the pre-crisis period – rational expectations, efficient markets, and the neutrality of money – must be revised. Politicians must encourage a revolution in economic thinking.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 01-04-16 | More
  129. A global (quant) perspective on the Australian equities market

    One might argue that Australia's high dividend yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally smaller companies means the Australian equity market behaves like a global small cap with a value style tilt. Is that true?

    Michael Furey | 31-03-16 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  130. The Fed's New Neutral rate

    No one expected the FOMC to change its policy rate from 0.25% to 0.50% this month - but this month's meeting still provided plenty of unusual twists that warrant serious thought.

    Robert Gay | 21-03-16 | More
  131. Reduce volatility to reduce sequencing risk?

    We're often told that the answer to managing sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility, low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!

    Tim Farrelly | 17-03-16 | 17 comments | More
  132. Should they stay or should they go?

    The Brexit referendum is about where the British see the best chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 17-03-16 | More
  133. The day the King defaulted

    The 1672 debt default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old tale of government finance that offers practical lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 15-03-16 | More
  134. Helicopter money – really?

    The policy response to a hugely levered global economy has turned to a discussion of money creation to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever more unconventional.

    Chris Watling | 14-03-16 | 0.50 CE | 6 comments | More
  135. Are most annual Investment Outlooks worthless?

    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces are frequently useless to the average investor or adviser.

    Dominic McCormick | 04-03-16 | 2 comments | More
  136. Why Brexit won't happen

    Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 23-02-16 | 2 comments | More
  137. Some simple Australian market analysis

    Very few believe that past prices can tell you something about the future but there is a somewhat remarkable consistency to the trend of the Australian equity market returns over the last 45 years.

    Michael Furey | 22-02-16 | More
  138. Markets Summit 2016 - my key takeout

    It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.

    Chris Watling | 21-02-16 | More
  139. It's not deja-vu (all over again) 2011

    Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I don't.

    Jonathan Pain | 20-02-16 | More
  140. 2016 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

    Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.

    18-02-16 | More
  141. Don't pile into resources this year

    Like 2014 and 2015, Australian resources stocks in 2016 may look cheap but it is not an attractive trade. More reliable returns will be delivered by high quality companies well beyond the familiar territory of the 20 Leaders.

    Olivia Engel | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  142. Markets Summit 2016 - The Great Debate

    The three motions put by our independent economists for Markets Summit 2016 were 1. Capitalism and globalisation will not survive the next GFC; 2. The markets are overreacting in particular to the outlook for China’s economy and currency, and the prospects for financials; 3. You should protect your positions this year by buying risk overlays.

    Markets Summit 2016 Great Debate Panel | 16-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  143. Ready for a record-length US recovery

    This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is still middle aged and has years to go. Equity markets continue to be attractive on their own merits and especially relative to fixed income.

    Ronald Temple | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  144. Chickens coming home to roost

    For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money' policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money' recovery. With the Fed now two years into tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost. The equity bear market is underway.

    Chris Watling | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  145. Old fears in emerging markets are masking new opportunities

    It's true that the past few years have been challenging for emerging markets as a whole. But not all emerging economies are equal, and uneven prospects are driving compelling return differences. Investors should have them back on their radars.

    David Holstein, Capital Group | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  146. It's the end of EU-rope as we know it

    The EU has been in crisis for many years. You ain't seen nothing yet! 2016 will change the nature of the EU – and it might well signify deja-vu, the end of Europe's process of political and economic integration.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  147. There's nowhere to run, nowhere to hide... but plenty of risks

    Today, there are no clearly diversifying mainstream assets. All assets are expensive and what seems safe may hold the greatest risk. We need to set realistic expectations and invest only of the basis of genuine insight.

    Susan Gosling | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 3 comments | More
  148. The resources cycle is getting closer to the bottom

    In a cyclical sector like commodity, deja-vu abounds for those with a long memory. As the outlook improves, equities usually rally before commodity prices, responding to improved demand forecasts.

    Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  149. Australia is the land of complacent oligopolies

    Australian equity investors should look beyond the largest blue chip stocks in the financial, resources and telecommunications sectors – to industrial companies that are better positioned for growth.

    Madeleine Beaumont, BlackRock | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  150. The Eurozone is an economic calamity

    Investment in "peripheral" Europe is a high-risk proposition. Much has changed, but nothing has changed! Yes, the eurozone is an economic calamity.

    Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  151. Don’t catch a falling knife - avoid high yield and EM bonds

    The market continues to misprice the risk of large scale defaults and debt restructures. Now is the time to sell high yield and EM bonds exposure, while you still can.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  152. This is anything but a new paradigm

    Growing wealth and managing risk is a considerably more complex challenge than it was a decade ago. Excellence in asset allocation and implementation are more important than ever before.

    Matthew Sherwood, Perpetual Investments | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 3 comments | More
  153. The ASX's future is past

    The Australian equity market will continue to underwhelm going forward. Investors need an equally-weighted approach to returns that places far less emphasis on commodities and banking.

    Joe Bracken, Tempo Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  154. Demographic shifts are polarising investment opportunities

    We are at an inflection point where the global dependency ratio is becoming adverse. This will lead to profound changes to the composition of the population around the world, polarising investment opportunities.

    Aneta Wynimko, Fidelity International | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  155. Sell/short the beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble now

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase.

    Jacob Mitchell | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  156. Investment grade credit - income without destroying capital

    It's possible to have your cake and eat it too. Global investment grade credit has not been this attractive in spread terms for the past six years.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  157. Investment lessons from Japan

    Often in markets, you do get the feeling that somehow we've been here before. But things are never quite the same. Looking at some examples from the past, particularly Japan, we can see what can we learn and apply to our investment decisions going forward.

    Tim Farrelly | 16-02-16 | 8 comments | More
  158. China is falling into the middle income trap

    As China's economy slows and policymakers struggle, economic friction is mounting. Without drastic reforms, China will find it difficult to avoid the middle income trap.

    Alex Wolf | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  159. China contagion is driven more by sentiment than fundamental

    China's Black Monday renewed investor concerns about a hard landing. It is critical to assess the macroeconomic and market scenarios of a China hard landing and the impact on investors' portfolios.

    Oleg Ruban, MSCI | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  160. Fasten your seatbelt for a volatile 2016

    Debt levels are too high (deja-vu!). Until now, QE has softened the impact. With consensus perceiving the Fed to return to normal (?), markets are entering unchartered waters - 2016 is set to be a volatile year.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  161. 2015 a year to forget, 2016 not the year to forgive

    For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. The coming year will be a rerun of this theme. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

    Kerry Craig, JP Morgan Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  162. The distorted reality is unwinding

    The Fed has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu - there continues to be a great disagreement about the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than most expect and QT will impact on financial asset volatility.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  163. Debt cycles don't repeat themselves - but this one rhymes

    A 50-year era of inflation is ending and we are left no inflation, little growth and too much debt. China's slowdown and the current oil glut are early signs that this debt bubble may end badly.

    Robert Gay | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  164. Is it deja-vu (all over again)?

    Does it feel like we've been here before? The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same! Does that mean that, going forward, markets and asset classes will behave as in the past? Is it deja-vu (all over again)?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  165. Is it deja-vu 2008?

    Many people have written to me in recent months and asked whether I believe this is yet another 2008. In my view, there are many significant differences. But I'm afraid we're set for some extreme volatility in the months, if not the years, ahead.

    Jonathan Pain | 16-02-16 | More
  166. Countries don't matter?

    For a number of years, many fund managers have maintained that country and regional analysis are no basis for making asset allocation decisions. It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

    Tim Farrelly | 15-02-16 | More
  167. The global corporate debt unwind

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase. It's time to sell/short the beneficiaries.

    Jacob Mitchell | 10-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  168. The bifurcation of credit risk

    Numerous explanations have been offered for the latest bout of volatility in financial markets. The one unmistakable message from this market volatility is that it is all about credit.

    Robert Gay | 10-02-16 | More
  169. Resources – getting closer to the bottom

    The resources sector is unloved, under-owned, heavily shorted and facing a slow grind to re-establish equilibrium between supply and demand. This is incorporated in the prices for equities, with discounts that reflect the negative sentiment. A contrarian with a longer term approach should be getting quite excited at this point.

    Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 09-02-16 | More
  170. The global economy's New Abnormal

    How much longer can markets not only ignore the real economy, but also discount political risk? Welcome to the New Abnormal for growth, inflation, monetary policies, and asset prices.

    Nouriel Roubini | 05-02-16 | 1 comment | More
  171. It's time to go - Angela Merkel

    Only half a year ago, I explained how boring German politics had become. Angela Merkel's position seemed virtually unassailable and the 2017 election result a foregone conclusion. Not anymore.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 05-02-16 | 2 comments | More
  172. The case for gold resurrected

    When central banks are taking to extreme policies, and Donald Trump has a decent chance of being US President, we need to be prepared for anything. Gold may not be the perfect hedge, but what is?

    Dominic McCormick | 04-02-16 | More
  173. Jewels may outperform tools

    It seems that the markets are indicating that we have entered a period in which jewels (gold) will outperform tools (stocks). Try as we may (we are no gold-bugs), we struggle to find reasons to discard the market's message.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 03-02-16 | More
  174. 2015 was a year to forget, 2016 won't be a year to forgive

    For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

    Kerry Craig, JP Morgan Asset Management | 02-02-16 | More
  175. Thinking like Fed Chair Yellen

    Yellen has wanted to nip a brewing asset price bubble before it was too late. January's market selloff has accomplished her intent. Now she take her foot off the brake.

    Robert Gay | 02-02-16 | More
  176. Judging bear market lows

    There's a high likelihood that global equities are already in a Bear Market. If so, assessing the likely end of the Bear Market becomes critical. Most importantly is the need to forecast the end of the recession.

    Chris Watling | 01-02-16 | More
  177. Turbulence in the world economy and markets

    The consensus view that falling oil prices and a China slowdown are the main drivers of slowing world growth is only half the true story of why global growth is 3% rather than 6% as it was - and could and should be again.

    Woody Brock | 01-02-16 | More
  178. More from your core

    Core assets - Australian equities, global equities, and fixed income - are going to generate pretty lacklustre returns this year. Having as efficient a portfolio as possible is going to be really key to your return success.

    Kevin Anderson, State Street Global Advisors | 01-02-16 | More
  179. Stress testing a China hard landing

    As global economic uncertainty persists in the markets, a coherent and structured approach to assess macroeconomic and market scenarios and their impact on investors’ portfolios becomes critical.

    MSCI | 31-01-16 | More
  180. Investing in demo-graphics - an update

    Three demographic megatrends support a number of structural growth themes that allow identifiable companies to benefit from strong and compounding cash returns over investible timescales.

    Fidelity International | 31-01-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  181. A mess of Merkel's own making

    Never let a good crisis go to waste. Historically, the EU used to thrive under adversity. The current European crisis is different. It will either be the end of the EU, or at least the end of the EU as we know it.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 28-01-16 | More
  182. Does the Financial Services Council understand imputation?

    The FSC has called for a cut in the company tax rate to 22%, funded by an increase in the GST. It's hard to see why FSC made this call, particularly given that its stated number one priority is "working to improve the well-being of all Australians".

    Tim Farrelly | 22-01-16 | 4 comments | More
  183. Here comes Daddy bear

    For the last few months, I've been concerned that a bear market was likely to unfold. We are now on such a trajectory. History suggests that such episodes come in two distinct extremes.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 21-01-16 | More
  184. Annus Horribilis 2016

    2016 has started poorly for the global economy - and horribly for markets. A number of negative themes are ascendant, whereas the positive ones are either pausing or petering out.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 21-01-16 | More
  185. The euro has become a zombie currency

    All that is left of the euro is a currency that bears the same name but that has none of its original features. It is a zombie currency, an undead monetary system pretending to survive.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 21-01-16 | More
  186. The global migration blowback

    Nearly half of the world's economies are at a "high" or "very high" risk of political and social unrest. It is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Dambisa Moyo | 18-01-16 | More