A recent research paper looks at the impact of "The Donald" on markets, while a second examines the impact of robo-advice on investor behaviour.
Ex-CIA Acting Director and economist, Morell worked with six US Presidents. He explains the current geopolitical inflection point that will affect the world economy for a very long time.
The world is getting very interesting. Two strong forces - the US economy accelerating vs tariffs getting bigger - are creating a tug of war that means you need to have a bet each way.
As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the GFC. By 2020, conditions will be ripe for a new financial crisis.
The fallacy that an inverted yield curve "predicts" the onset of recessions is alive and well. Many investors believe the curve will invert in 2019, precipitating a recession. But a flattening of the yield curve need not imply a recession.
In the cyber world today, we are somewhere around World War I. There are more than 30 nations with effective cyber forces. Practitioners need to understand the threat cyber weapons pose to markets and investments.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) invests heavily in high technology research. While the world will certainly benefit from the PRC's technological ambition, it also has challenging implications.
A disciplined, scenarios-based approach to determining your views on the outlook for markets and the asset allocation implications can help future-proof portfolios. This hypothetical Investment Committee meeting considers the asset allocation implications of three scenarios.
The Australian (and global economy) is facing decades of significant technological change that will reshape how we work, where we work, and how we relate to each other economically and politically.
Investors need to entirely rethink their processes, assumptions and research approach, to focus on the cultures of consumers in different markets. Only by thinking like new brands themselves, can investors identify and invest in the next powerful emerging trend.
The familiar phrase “Past performance is not indicative of future performance” is so common we almost ignore it, but it goes to the heart of how to view and manage risk and return to future-proof portfolios.
Investors should learn the lessons of history. Looking beyond near-term valuation multiples can help identify the next great winners and also help avoid the losers. Without growth investing, a portfolio is only focusing on only one side of the equation.
Future proofing portfolios is difficult, due to today’s demanding valuations and because the future is intrinsically unknowable. There are no set-and-forget strategies in a world of ever-changing prices.
The investment opportunity in EM is greater than just the companies domiciled there. In essence, investing in global growth should not simply be defined or determined by where a company receives its mail.
Investment portfolio construction is, by definition, an exercise in long-term thinking. Given the uncertainties and competing priorities, are future-proof portfolios achievable? Practitioners share their views.
Due to biases in investing, Sharpe ratios of investor portfolios are often not as high as investors expect. How low can a random walk of a Sharpe ratio wander through the natural realisation of risk?
A disciplined, scenarios-based approach to determining your views on the outlook for markets and then the asset allocation implications can help future-proof portfolios.
Differences in regulation, politics, and transparency between Asian countries are all factors that cannot be captured by passive investing but which represent opportunities for active investors.
This week in Forum Fodder: Susan Lund – a corporate debt bubble?; Aaron Minney - most investors need to eat capital; Michael Furey - Investment faux pas; Tom Switzer - Don’t write off America; Douglas Isles - Beware the trifecta of desire
With US unemployment running at just 3.8% (equal lowest rate since 1969), the Fed will have to hike rates four times this year, with the risk that bond yields go not just to 3.5% but somewhere well north.
Over-the-top streaming will become the dominant form of media consumption, and Netflix will be the dominant global provider. Near-term valuation multiples may ultimately prove cheap.
Masterclass NZ is a post-graduate extension program focused on contemporary issues that are fundamental to building better quality portfolios. Each year, the one-day program features five research-based, active learning sessions.
That's the view that Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the RBA, outlined in a recent speech. It's a timely warning - but what do we do with it? I think it depends on your investment time horizon, as do so many investment decisions.
Genomic medicine will radically change how diseases are diagnosed and treated. Healthcare valuations do not currently reflect the long-term opportunities in the sector.
The annual Investment Management Research Workshop showcases early stage research in the area of investments to a practitioner and academic audience. It is an initiative of the Investment Management Research Program which is presented by Portfolio Construction Forum, in collaboration with faculty of the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Business School. The IMR Program succeeds the UTS Paul Woolley Centre.
In nine pages, this paper says all that needs to be said on the ability of any of us to estimate the true value of financial assets. The next two papers produce conflicting findings on the impact of index investing on markets.
The Chinese authorities recognise the potential of blockchain technology and are outpacing the US, in the race to develop an "official" cryptocurrency. If the Chinese experiment succeeds, we may witness the start of a new epoch in monetary policy.
For Australian investors, are international markets still attractive sources of growth? Or is the Australian equity market more attractive? Do Australian sovereign bonds remain an anchor portfolio allocation for well diversified portfolios?
China’s Belt and Road initiative is expected to reshape the global economic landscape. However, the plan is poorly understood. It may generate political "returns" but opportunities for investors will be limited.
In 2017, the global economy experienced synchronised acceleration for the first time in a decade. The regime shift now underway will challenge portfolio construction designed for the previous regime.
Investors should focus more than ever on uncovering sources of idiosyncratic alpha, rather than relying on momentum or passive beta.
The global economy is approaching peak growth and investors should prepare for increasing left tail risks. This may be an opportune time to increase allocation to bonds as an insurance policy.
Structural change and the resulting earnings growth will always outrun interest rates in the long run, so as change continues to accelerate, investors need growth equities in their portfolio.
Whether an investor's investment horizon is three to five years, 10 years, or even 30 years, they would benefit from taking a generational perspective to enhance returns.
Data from the larger economies generally support the scenario of synchronised global expansion. The biggest risk to portfolios is strong growth and investors need to position themselves in anticipation of rising rates.
Will global synchronised growth drive earnings growth to a higher gear that warrants current elevated valuations? And should the early effects of technological changes influence investment choices now?
Bond yields may rise by up to 90bps a lot faster than the Fed is suggesting. It's time to consider what happens to your portfolio if bond yields change gears.
Technological change is advancing with unprecedented speed and scale. The early effects of these technological changes on growth, labour, policy and trade should influence investment choices now.
Are we in for a global inflation shock leading to significantly higher bond yields and a recalibration of relative valuations? Are we close to a one-in-a-generation change in the world's monetary order? Should we be switching gear with portfolios?
Every generation or so, things (in the economics world) break. Indeed, the history of the world's international monetary order is a history of change, occurring on average every 40 years. This current system is, therefore, long in the tooth.
Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The program features 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - debating their best ideas on the key drivers of and medium-term outlook for the markets in the context of the theme - Changing gears? - and the implications for portfolios.
Infrastructure assets have large environmental footprints. Incorporating ESG factors into the infrastructure investment process can improve risk-adjusted returns.
The general uptrend in the broader equity market seems set to continue given economic data globally remains robust and central banks very accommodating. Given divergent risks, investors should focus more than ever on uncovering sources of idiosyncratic alpha, rather than relying on momentum or passive beta.
Technological revolutions often spawn financial booms and busts - but the value proposition of blockchain is profound, and the technology has given rise to cryptoassets. Practitioners will increasingly be required to understand them.