1. A better class of bubble

    Only the most die-hard peak-oil proponents, or other gold-bugs, will fail to acknowledge that the commodity bubble has burst. Is it a positive, or negative, for financial markets?

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 04-12-14 | More
  2. Lessons form the last 40 yrs

    Looking back over the last 40 years, it is clear that, in the next 20 years, successful asset owners and managers are going to listen to Einstein and stop making things too simple.

    Alan Brown | 03-12-14 | More
  3. The return of currency wars

    The right policies are the opposite of those pursued by the world's major economies. No wonder global growth keeps disappointing. In a sense, we are all Japanese now.

    Nouriel Roubini | 01-12-14 | More
  4. Bad yen falling

    Japan is not going to stop QE next year or the year after or the year after that. This is not Zimbabwe printing money. Japan is important to the global economy - what they do affects everything.

    John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics | 26-11-14 | More
  5. Japan's election and the yen

    By calling an election now, Abe is betting that a further big fall in the yen - and a consequent further rise in the Nikkei - is no certainty. He may well be right.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 25-11-14 | More
  6. The return of the US dollar

    The US dollar rally could contribute to the "rebalancing" that has long eluded the world economy. But that is far from guaranteed given the related risks of financial instability.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 24-11-14 | More
  7. Are low-vol stocks over crowded?

    Ten years ago, hardly anyone talked about low-volatility investing. Now there's growing concern it is becoming an overcrowded trade. There are four arguments against this.

    David Blitz & Pim van Vliet, Robeco | 20-11-14 | More
  8. Academy Spring Seminar 2014 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Spring Seminar 2014 features three sessions. This Resources Kit contains the materials for preparing for the Seminar. After the Seminar, it will also contain the presentations for each session.

    19-11-14 | 44 comments | More
  9. Now you can, should you?

    The world's biggest inaccessible stock market is finally opening to foreigners. Those with strong convictions about the rise of the Chinese consumer may want to take a hard look.

    Thomas Gatley, GaveKal | 18-11-14 | More
  10. China A shares emerging?

    Despite strong returns, it's still hard for investors to think positively about China A shares as an investment. The key is to envisage what the world will look like in 10 to 15 years.

    Dominic McCormick | 17-11-14 | 3 comments | More
  11. Gridlock itself is not the problem

    Gridlock may be perfectly acceptable in Washington these days - but Europe, like Japan, now badly needs strong political leadership.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 12-11-14 | More
  12. Why are bond yields so low?

    The answer seems obvious. But more complicated forces are at work that have reduced real interest rates far below historic norms and may keep them very low for many years.

    Robert Gay | 11-11-14 | More
  13. IS is irrelevant - Libya is relevant

    The media continues to obsess about IS - but the far more investment-relevant development in the Middle East is the sudden return of Libyan crude to the market.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 10-11-14 | More
  14. Celebrity central bankers

    There are good reasons why central bankers receive so much media. But the bubble around their pronouncements grossly exaggerates their economic significance.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 10-11-14 | More
  15. Low beta anomaly - mispricing or risk?

    I don't dispute low vol stocks outperform highly vol stocks. But volatility does not explain all of an asset's risk.

    Michael Furey | 07-11-14 | 1 comment | More
  16. Taking a gamble with negative interest rates

    The taboo that savers have to be compensated for handing money to a financial institution has been broken, with the ECB's negative rates finally being passed on to retail clients.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 06-11-14 | More
  17. Deflation: Boom Or bust?

    It has been my contention for a while that capitalism is returning to its 19th century deflationary roots. Indeed, the evidence has become overwhelming.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 05-11-14 | More
  18. Single-engine global economy

    The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off. Unfortunately, only one of its four engines is functioning properly.

    Nouriel Roubini | 03-11-14 | More
  19. 4 takeouts from the recent volatility

    Last week's volatility surprised many. How should portfolios be positioned? And what does this recent bout of volatility tell us about the economy and financial markets?

    Russ Koesterich, BlackRock | 29-10-14 | More
  20. Phrases that should be banished from retirement planning

    Perhaps the most crucial change in our retirement planning language is simply to rename "retirement".

    Michael Kitces | 27-10-14 | More
  21. Capitalism inequality & Piketty

    Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty‐First Century" is certainly the economics book of the year. We have been asked numerous times to appraise his ideas.

    Woody Brock | 24-10-14 | More
  22. The inequality trifecta

    Most countries face a trio of inequalities - of income, wealth, and opportunity. Beyond the moral, social, and political implications lies a serious economic concern.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 24-10-14 | 1 comment | More
  23. The German word for this

    The German word for what we saw in markets this week is Torschlusspanik. Literally "gate-shut-panic", it describes the nasty crush when everyone rushes at once for an exit.

    GaveKal | 17-10-14 | More
  24. China's Gordian policy knot

    China has about five years to lay the groundwork for the transition to a new monetary policy framework with a currency that is sufficiently flexible.

    Robert Gay | 16-10-14 | More
  25. US rate signal may be broken

    Relying on Fed tightening to predict the next serious sharemarket weakness may be very dangerous. Perhaps this time really IS different.

    Dominic McCormick | 14-10-14 | More
  26. Market volatility - has it turned?

    Earlier this year, volatility across a whole range of key global assets reached major multi-year lows. But, equity volatility, we expect, has passed it's low for this cycle.

    Chris Watling | 13-10-14 | More
  27. An update on the route and destination

    In the US, despite moderate growth, we see very attractive valuations while many emerging markets are undervalued. But 7% growth in China is unrealistic.

    Ronald Temple | 03-10-14 | More
  28. Hearing echoes of 1987

    Today is much less reminiscent of 2007, when global equity prices were at similar levels to today, than of 1987. But it seems too early for investors to panic, or even reduce risk.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 02-10-14 | 1 comment | More
  29. Markets' rational complacency

    An increasingly obvious paradox has emerged in global financial markets this year. While geopolitical risks have multiplied, markets remain buoyant, if not downright bubbly.

    Nouriel Roubini | 01-10-14 | More
  30. 2014 Conference - Webcast

    This Resources Kit is a deluge of videos, podcasts, and papers for all sessions of the jam-packed Conference 2014 program so you can "attend" even if you weren't part of the 600 plus audience.

    19-09-14 | More
  31. The big differences with EM debt

    EM debt is a relatively new asset class. In any liquid format, it's only been around for about 20 years - and the most attractive part of the EM debt market has yet to re-rate.

    Arif Joshi, Lazard Asset Management | 18-09-14 | More
  32. A return to valuation-driven markets

    Over the next year or two, asset prices will no longer be driven by economic stats and monetary policy. Three major rotations are likely to continue and gather pace.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 17-09-14 | More
  33. A 'surprise on forward guidance?

    Speculation is building that the Fed will surprise financial markets with a new framework for forward guidance, perhaps as soon as the FOMC meeting on 16/17 September.

    Robert Gay | 12-09-14 | More
  34. The UK now faces years of volatility

    If Scotland does vote for independence, it's hard to come up with a positive scenario for British assets.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 08-09-14 | More
  35. Monetary policy is no threat to markets

    A big correction in equities, if it hits in the next year or two, is unlikely to be caused by monetary policy expectations.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 04-09-14 | More
  36. The exaggerated death of inflation

    Modern central banking has worked wonders to bring down inflation. Today, high inflation seems remote. But inflation is only dormant, it is certainly not dead.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 02-09-14 | More
  37. The Zen of risk parity and Richard Nixon's surprise benefit

    What do Richard Nixon, novel "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance", and Bridgewater Associates have to do with risk parity investing and Conference 2014?

    Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News | 01-09-14 | More
  38. Navigating risk through asset allocation - the 1st order decision

    This presentation addresses the importance of developing improved and dynamic investment approaches that seek to better understand and manage total portfolio risk as well as identify sources of return.

    Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors | 21-08-14 | More
  39. Capturing the emerging market equity premium with lower risk

    The empirical relation between risk and return in emerging equity markets is flat, or even negative - including controlling for exposures to the size, value and momentum effects.

    Frank Wirds | 21-08-14 | More
  40. Lengthening the investment time horizon

    Company fundamentals don't change nearly as much as equity market prices - and therein lies an opportunity for investors with a longer-term view.

    Sanjay Natarajan, MFS Investment Management | 21-08-14 | More
  41. A practitioner's guide to building absolute return portfolios

    To achieve absolute return objectives, many risk management techniques remain relevant but their application and focus need to change.

    Nick Griffiths and Antonio Meroni, Pengana Capital | 21-08-14 | More
  42. Demographics versus The Bear

    Demographic understanding is now one of the most important elements in the areas of government and - importantly for investors - future drivers in financial market returns.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 21-08-14 | More
  43. New directions in high-yield investment

    Bonds are no longer risk free. It's time to accept the idea and move on - to broaden the traditional idea of fixed-income as a form of risk mitigation and view it also as a risk-and-return proposition.

    Guy Bruten, AllianceBernstein | 21-08-14 | More
  44. Geopol- tical risks growing in East Asia

    China's taken a tough approach to its periphery. This doesn't necessarily spell doom and gloom for Australia and the region.

    Linda Jakobson | 21-08-14 | More
  45. Geopolitical risks (and rewards) - the impact on portfolios

    If geopolitics is far more important in considering investment markets today, how do we integrate geopolitics into portfolio construction?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 21-08-14 | More
  46. Quiescent markets - why is volatility so low?

    With global volatility at multi decade lows, the critical questions become: should we be worried or relaxed? What next? In fact, quiescent markets should be feared, not embraced.

    Chris Watling | 21-08-14 | More
  47. Understanding both sides of the risk and return equation

    As we sit today with some unprecedented market conditions, it's probably more relevant than ever to understand both sides of the risk and return equation in the fixed income space.

    Dr Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton | 21-08-14 | More
  48. Are risk and return really linked?

    What return premia - if any - are attached to different types of investment risk? And just how reliable those premia are in practice? Can the risks be diversified?

    Tim Farrelly | 20-08-14 | More
  49. Residential property - riskier than equities?

    For many Australians, their house is one of their biggest assets, if not the biggest. But a leveraged owner-occupied home is riskier than the sharemarket.

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 20-08-14 | More
  50. The quest for returns in the new world paradigm "Redux"

    A sustained period of lower global growth, rich valuations from traditional assets and an eerie calm before the storm in asset price volatility require a different approach to asset allocation.

    David Griffith, BlackRock | 20-08-14 | More
  51. Private equity - diversifying equity portfolios

    Public equity valuations have disconnected from underlying earnings and there is a distorted link between perceived and actual risk.

    Urs Wietlisbach, Partners Group | 20-08-14 | More
  52. Are you hanging your client's investment aspirations on six stocks?

    The top six stocks in the ASX 300 represent 45% of market cap and 50% of market risk. A 4% TE constrained manager must hold 15%-20% in these six stocks even if they do not like them.

    Olivia Engel | 20-08-14 | More
  53. Evaluating the Australian bond market through a global lens

    The seismic shift in fixed income after a 30-year bull market for bonds has created significant portfolio construction challenges and opportunities.

    Chris Siniakov & Andrew Canobi, Franklin Templeton Investments | 20-08-14 | More
  54. Building a robust portfolio for future unknowns

    To ensure risk is genuinely well diversified takes a forward-looking scenario-analysis process to combine quantitative rigor with qualitative insights of the plausible but unlikely extreme stresses we might face.

    Mark Foster, Standard Life Investments | 20-08-14 | More
  55. VIX-ING your portfolio

    When looking to reconnect risk and return in portfolios, what better place to start than with the barometer of equity market risk itself?

    Simon Ho, Triple 3 Partners | 20-08-14 | More
  56. Trends and opportunities in global listed infrastructure

    The size of the global infrastructure asset universe will expand from $40 trillion earlier this decade to over $110 trillion by 2030, presenting significant opportunities to invest.

    David Hale, David Hale Global Economics | 20-08-14 | More
  57. Alpha Potential - identifying active management opportunities

    Alpha Potential is gaining traction as another important quantitative tool. Its use lies in identifying opportunities for active management of Australian equities amongst other asset classes.

    Robert Penaloza and Andrew Kophamel, Aberdeen Asset Management  | 20-08-14 | More
  58. Fixed income: The future is flexible

    Investing in unconstrained fixed income strategies with more flexibility to change duration and sector exposures can have a positive impact on a portfolio’s overall risk and return profile.

    Nick Gartside, JP Morgan Asset Management | 20-08-14 | More
  59. Risk & return: Two investment approaches

    If risk and return are imperfectly linked, there is opportunity to increase average return, without increasing risk - particularly in equity markets where risk is mispriced.

    Ryan Taliaferro, Acadian Asset Management | 20-08-14 | More
  60. Dysfunctional risk and return

    In many cases, fundamental risk and return characteristics have been shown the door as funds have flowed into ever lower yielding income asset classes.

    Mark Kiesel, PIMCO | 20-08-14 | More
  61. Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (& Relating)

    The last decade has seen a distinct disconnect between investment risk and return, versus what we're taught should be the case.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 20-08-14 | More
  62. How different fixed income is today

    Fixed income has changed, and is very different today versus what it was years ago. It makes sense to evolve your portfolios accordingly.

    Rick Rieder, BlackRock | 20-08-14 | More
  63. The changing nature of interest rates and inflation

    What are the questions that everyone is asking today? When will interest rates spike? And, what about the increased rate of inflation? One has to accept the changing nature of these two elements.

    Joan Payden, Payden & Rygel | 20-08-14 | More
  64. Belief is not enough

    Belief and philosophy when it comes to investing are not enough. Without culture and rigour, it is highly unlikely an investor will maintain their beliefs in all market conditions and cycles.

    Simon Mawhinney, Allan Gray | 19-08-14 | More
  65. Prepare for a change of course

    There may be rocks ahead. Reconnecting risk and return must be the right focus - but thinking conventional tools will keep us out of trouble may be a mistake.

    Alan Brown, Schroders | 18-08-14 | More
  66. A practical measure of Alpha Potential

    Alpha Potential is gaining traction as a tool to identify opportunities for active management, enhancing the value proposition afforded to active managers.

    Andrew Kophamel and Ben Wang, Aberdeen Asset Management | 17-08-14 | More
  67. Backgrounder: Reconnecting risk & return

    The last decade has seen a disconnect between investment risk and return vs what we're taught should be the case. What is the long-term relationship? Can it be beaten?

    PortfolioConstruction Forum | 15-08-14 | More
  68. Settling in

    People often ask me about my outlook for the US housing market. The outlook is improving - and that's constructive for consumer spending, confidence and jobs.

    Mark Kiesel, PIMCO | 15-08-14 | More
  69. Breaking the risk on/risk off cycle

    A dynamic risk management approach can protect a portfolio again sequencing risk, providing reliable investment returns over the cycle.

    Plato Milliman | 14-08-14 | More
  70. Are you hanging your clients' investment aspirations on six stocks?

    Six stocks make up just under half of the Australian equity market. This research paper examines the impact of this on investors' returns, and whether it is responsible investing.

    Olivia Engel | 12-08-14 | More
  71. Building a robust portfolio for future unknowns

    To ensure risk is genuinely well diversified takes a sophisticated forward-looking scenario-analysis process to combine quantitative rigor with qualitative insights of extreme stresses it might face.

    Mark Foster & Chris Nichols, Standard Life Investments | 12-08-14 | More
  72. Evaluating the Australian bond market through a global lens

    This paper explores the thesis that capturing the traditional relationship of fixed income in the total client portfolio will require more untraditional approaches going forward.

    Chris Siniakov & Andrew Canobi, Franklin Templeton Investments | 12-08-14 | More
  73. The quest for returns in the new world paradigm

    This paper explores a different approach to asset allocation and alternative returns sources to reduce the reliance on traditional asset classes and drive returns.

    David Griffith, BlackRock | 11-08-14 | More
  74. Understanding private equity's outperformance in difficult times

    This paper explores the opportunities within private equity and private debt and examines their role in providing downside protection for investors.

    Dr Stephan Schäli & Florian Demleitner, Partners Group | 11-08-14 | More
  75. Volatility overlay – reconnecting risk and return for equities

    This research paper discusses (in simple terms) how to reconnect the concept of Risk and Return via the practical application of volatility derivatives to portfolios.

    Triple3 Partners | 11-08-14 | More
  76. Broader horizons: The evolving high-yield landscape

    Over the past 40 years, the high-yield landscape has grown exponentially. Knowing the key risks and emerging opportunities can help map a path forward.

    Gershon Distenfeld & Ashish Shah, AllianceBernstein | 11-08-14 | More
  77. The future is flexible - why, when, whence?

    Uncertainty about the timing of future interest rate rises poses challenges to fixed income investors. This paper identifies options available in managing portfolios in such an environment.

    Nick Gartside, JP Morgan Asset Management | 11-08-14 | More
  78. Shiller CAPE - terrible but valuable

    After two decades of elevated earnings and PEs - and two bear markets but also three bull markets - many are questioning whether Shiller CAPE is all that predictive.

    Michael Kitces | 08-08-14 | More
  79. Life after zero

    Risk assets are grinding higher and volatility is extraordinarily low - and monetary stimulus is still plentiful. What does life after zero (rates) look like?

    BlackRock Investment Institute | 07-08-14 | More
  80. The global obsession with US data

    Since 2010, there has been an almost perfect correlation between the strength of the US economy and stock markets outside the US. But this is set to diminish.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 07-08-14 | More
  81. Opportunities and challenges in a less US-centric world

    We've come to accept a world where the US drives what happens in the global economy and markets. But that's changing - with significant implications for portfolios.

    Dominic McCormick | 05-08-14 | More
  82. Russia's Eurasian vision

    The escalating conflict in Ukraine has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin's long-term objectives?

    Nouriel Roubini | 04-08-14 | More
  83. The 5% solution

    Going forward, instead of 5% real, traditional stocks and bonds will offer about 2.5%. But there are many things you can do to bridge the gap.

    Cliff Asness, AQR Capital Management | 31-07-14 | 1 comment | More
  84. Summer essays

    Investing can and often is intellectually compelling. But it should not be driven by excitement, as it is for many individuals.

    Jeremy Grantham, GMO | 31-07-14 | More
  85. Booming until it hurts?

    Those who warn of grave dangers if speculative price increases are allowed to continue are right, even if they can't prove there is cause for concern.

    Robert J. Shiller | 30-07-14 | More
  86. The case for a structural equity bull market

    Are equities at the end of a five-year cyclical bounce or the start of a 15-year structural breakout? History suggests two contradictory answers.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 29-07-14 | More
  87. Market cap-weighted bond indices - always tough to beat

    It is not surprising that bond managers have significant difficulty in outperforming a market cap-weighted benchmark.

    Michael Furey | 28-07-14 | More
  88. Geopolitical risk - Implications for portfolio construction

    Do geopolitical events involving potential or actual military conflict really matter in the constructing of investment portfolios?

    Dominic McCormick | 08-07-14 | More
  89. Gouging the Gauchos

    The recent US supreme court ruling that Argentina's hold-out creditors have the right to be paid in full is a dangerous decision for all countries for two reasons.

    Nouriel Roubini | 07-07-14 | More
  90. A warning to bond bears

    Are we at the start of a long-term bond bear market? Here are three factors that I expect to keep bond yields lower for longer, and five important implications for investors.

    Curt Custard, UBS Global Asset Management | 01-07-14 | More
  91. 2014 Symposium - CPD Quiz

    Symposium NZ 2014 facilitated debate on the three pillars of portfolio construction – markets, strategies and investing - to help delegates build better quality portfolios. This CPD Quiz is for delegates to complete, to receive Structured CPD Hours.

    30-06-14 | More
  92. Rethinking the Sino-American relationship

    The upcoming US/China 6th Strategic & Economic Dialogue is an opportunity for serious reconsideration of the relationship between the world's two most powerful countries.

    Stephen Roach | 27-06-14 | More
  93. The lesson of Sarajevo

    The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo 100 yrs ago tomorrow lit the fuse to WW1. There are many points of modern relevance in the catastrophe.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 26-06-14 | More
  94. Rates are going up - so don't buy fixed interest?

    Everyone knows bond rates are going up - so why would you buy fixed interest? Actually, there are three really good reasons.

    Tim Farrelly | 18-06-14 | More
  95. Academy Winter Seminar 2014 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Winter Seminar 2014 featured four sessions: Risk, return & relating; Statistics, lies, and investment performance analysis; How safe are safe withdrawal rates in retirement?; and, Communicating and learning with and from clients.

    18-06-14 | 31 comments | More
  96. Sunnis on the march

    The Islamist surge through central Iraq has the potential to upset the plans of investors who've convinced themselves that volatility is in the past.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 16-06-14 | More
  97. The good guys and the bad guys in the cradle of civilisation

    What we are witnessing in Iraq is a war within Islam. Will it mutate into a broader regional war thereby threatening oil supplies?

    Jonathan Pain | 14-06-14 | 5 comments | More
  98. Four things that matter in 2014 and beyond

    Here are some brief thoughts on four issues that matter a lot, in our view. Two have been poorly discussed in the financial press, and the other two have been ignored completely.

    Woody Brock | 11-06-14 | More
  99. The 4% non-solution

    Moving to a twenty-first-century currency system would make it far simpler to move to a twenty-first-century central-banking regime as well.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 10-06-14 | More
  100. Dare to be great - the challenge of being different

    Investing differently gives no certainty of great results (increasing the odds of being wrong as well as right). But it is a necessary but not sufficient ingredient for great performance.

    Dominic McCormick | 10-06-14 | More
  101. An Uber bubble awaits

    Last week's most important financial event was not US payroll data, the ECB, or the rapprochement with Putin. It was the pricing of Uber, at 60 times rumoured revenues.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 09-06-14 | More
  102. Home price beliefs in Australia

    Are we any good at estimating the values of our homes? Surprisingly, on average we are, according to a RBA study. It also found a link to weightings of risky assets in portfolios.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 05-06-14 | More
  103. The Great Backlash

    Today's backlash against trade and globalisation should be viewed in the context of what, as we know from experience, could come next.

    Nouriel Roubini | 02-06-14 | More
  104. 2014 Symposium - Resources Kit

    This Resources Kit is a deluge of videos, podcasts, and papers for all sessions of the jam-packed Symposium 2014 program so you can "attend" even if you weren't part of the 200-strong audience.

    30-05-14 | More
  105. Drumroll to the ECB meeting

    Markets are pricing in expectations that the ECB will have to be very aggressive next week if it is to turn back the tide of European deceleration. It's reminiscent of October 1987.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 29-05-14 | More
  106. Kyle Bass: The looming crises in Asia

    Nobody is more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. He recently reiterated doubts about Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis, and cast doubt on China's economy.

    Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | 27-05-14 | More
  107. Valuations matter - implications for portfolio risk and return outcomes

    This paper and presentation argue that starting period equity valuations impact not just medium-term equity returns, but medium-term equity volatility and bond-equity correlations also.

    Keith Poore, AMP Capital NZ | 21-05-14 | More
  108. Investing in global bonds - a smarter way

    This paper and presentation argue against the use of debt-weighted benchmarks for global bond managers, in favour of a better approach to setting an appropriate benchmark.

    Graham Ansell, ANZ NZ Investments | 21-05-14 | More
  109. Popping the bonnet on central banks

    This paper and presentation argue that understanding what is going on under the bonnet at central banks is key to understanding what will drive markets, and how best to position portfolios.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 21-05-14 | More
  110. Is regulation good or bad for investment markets?

    Recorded at the recent Symposium 2014, this session examined the truth as to whether regulation makes markets more efficient or causes markets to produce lower returns.

    Prof Robert MacCulloch, Auckland University Business School | 20-05-14 | More
  111. Capitalism - bruised but still champion

    In the wake of the GFC, the public's belief in the free market has taken a battering. But for all its flaws, capitalism remains the best way of creating prosperity.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 20-05-14 | More
  112. USA will surprise on the upside

    This paper and presentation argue that there are real sign-posts that clearly suggest that the US is off its knees and ready to surprise the world on the upside, with significant implications for markets and portfolios.

    Nikki Thomas | 20-05-14 | More
  113. As global markets calm, be ever mindful of the risks

    This paper and presentation argue that the bond market can offer compensation against rising rates through roll down and active management of forwards.

    David Fisher, PIMCO | 20-05-14 | More
  114. The Great Unwind

    Central banks must complete the Great Unwind – removing ultra-easy monetary policies. The critical period for markets will come when the Fed lifts short-term rates (probably, but not necessarily, after tapering ends).

    Tim Farrelly | 20-05-14 | More
  115. What a wonderful world - around the world in 60 minutes

    The majority of the world will see an improvement in economic growth this year. While equities remain the most attractive asset class, they will need a more nimble approach.

    Jonathan Pain | 20-05-14 | More
  116. Challenging your portfolio construction beliefs

    Graham Rich opened Symposium 2014 in his usual thought-provoking (and entertaining) way, highlighting key issues to consider over the jam-packed, marathon program.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 20-05-14 | More
  117. Valuations matter: Implications for portfolio risk and return outcomes

    While it is well established that equity valuations impact medium-term equity returns. It is less well known that starting period equity valuations also impact medium-term equity volatility and bond-equity correlations.

    Keith Poore, AMP Capital NZ | 14-05-14 | More
  118. Moving forward with the normalisation of yields

    Faced with the prospect of rising yields, some investors are cutting bond allocations. But the bond market can offer compensation against rising rates.

    Scott Mather, David Fisher & Michael Story, PIMCO | 14-05-14 | More
  119. Removing central bank stimulus - implications for fixed interest

    Understanding what is going on under the bonnet at central banks is key to understanding what will drive markets – and therefore how to best position portfolios.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 14-05-14 | More
  120. Investing in global bonds - a smarter way

    If you were lending somebody money, would you lend them more money just because they had more debt? If you are investing according to a debt-weighted benchmark, that is exactly what you are doing.

    Graham Ansell, ANZ NZ Investments | 14-05-14 | More
  121. US recovery will surprise on the upside

    The US is undeniably the critical market within the global economy - and there are real sign-posts that clearly suggest it is ready to surprise the world on the upside.

    Nikki Thomas | 14-05-14 | More
  122. The democratic disruption of finance

    Having redefined media, technology, the Internet and social media will soon likely start transforming how capital is mobilised and allocated.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 09-05-14 | More
  123. A tale of two sharemarkets

    Often, the true dangers reside where investors are most comfortable going and the best opportunities are where investors fear to tread.

    Dominic McCormick | 06-05-14 | More
  124. The investor's challenge

    Whatever return forecasts you make will be wrong - so you better have a portfolio that has the opportunity to make money in a very broad spectrum of investment outcomes.

    Guy Stern, Standard Life Investments | 05-05-14 | 1 comment | More
  125. It's time to start looking at alternative assets

    It is time to start looking at alternative assets. Not because there is any pressing need to invest today, but because thorough analysis takes time and mistakes can be expensive.

    Tim Farrelly | 02-05-14 | More
  126. Global ground zero in Asia

    Long-standing historical grievances among China, Japan, Korea, India, and others remain open wounds. Why are tensions among Asia's great powers becoming more serious?

    Nouriel Roubini | 01-05-14 | More
  127. Why valuation really matters

    Valuation is not just an important driver of investment returns but also of investment volatility.

    Stephen Anness | 30-04-14 | More
  128. Divorcing your debt benchmark

    Divorcing your debt benchmark and adopting more unconstrained approach to debt investing and offering degrees of freedom to the portfolio manager is the new "core".

    Lisa Kim, PIMCO | 10-04-14 | More
  129. Academy Autumn Seminar 2014 - Resources Kit

    The Academy Autumn Seminar 2014 featured four sessions: 10 golden rules for portfolio construction; Reassessing the global debt spectrum; Currency revisited - to hedge or not to hedge; Volatility investing - the next frontier.

    09-04-14 | 40 comments | More
  130. Emerging markets on trial

    Against a backdrop of currency slides, yield spikes and chronic equity underperformance, we invited our EM experts to defend their asset class against three charges.

    BlackRock Investment Institute | 09-04-14 | More
  131. Investing for retirement: the defined contribution challenge

    Target date funds are becoming the workhorse for DC plans but there are problems with the approach. This paper offers a portfolio construction framework to overcome them.

    Ben Inker & Martin Tarlie, GMO | 08-04-14 | More
  132. The Fed's exit strategy

    The Fed's published policy on how it will exit QE is fairly old. Overall, though, there is not a huge overhang of securities that the Fed needs to sell to exit.

    Robert Gay | 07-04-14 | More
  133. Active versus passive

    The active versus passive debate was recently given a boost when Warren Buffet suggested in his annual letter that most investors are better off investing passively.

    Dominic McCormick | 07-04-14 | 1 comment | More
  134. Age banding - a model for planning retirement income needs

    In recent months, we've highlighted one school of research on funding retirement income, being the sustainable withdrawal rate approach. This paper takes a different approach.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 04-04-14 | 1 comment | More
  135. The changing face of correlation?

    The challenge for investors over the past several years is that diversification did not work as expected. The dynamic nature of correlation must be factored into portfolio modeling.

    Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors | 02-04-14 | 1 comment | More
  136. The euthanasia of pensioners in Peoria

    So the US budget deficit is contracting because government consumption is falling? It is really just an accounting illusion. Financial repression is still the order of the day.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 01-04-14 | More
  137. The changing face of global risk

    Economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. A year or two ago, six risks stood at center stage. These have now reduced. But six others have been growing.

    Nouriel Roubini | 31-03-14 | 1 comment | More
  138. Rise of the machines - how will the EMs keep pace?

    In theory, recent currency devaluations should make EM countries more competitive. But they're also facing a technological jump that they may not be able to keep up with.

    Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group | 27-03-14 | More
  139. The takeaways from the latest Fama-French research

    Does Fama and French's latest work, A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model, provide any information that can be of practical value to advisers or investors? The answer is no.

    Michael Edesess | 25-03-14 | 1 comment | More
  140. The global economy's tale risks

    Just as it is hard to make a blockbuster film every time, no leader can consistently shape the narratives that affect the economy. But they need to try.

    Robert J. Shiller | 25-03-14 | More
  141. Safety in numbers?

    When any investment and, in particular, an alternative investment begins to be considered mainstream with attendant big inflows, the end is generally nigh.

    Tim Farrelly | 24-03-14 | More
  142. Heading for the exit

    The Fed's clear message from yesterday's FOMC meeting is that it will stay the course on exiting QE as gracefully and slowly as possible.

    Robert Gay | 21-03-14 | More
  143. A year for genuine improvement

    2014 is likely to be a year of genuine improvement in the global economy, and one where uncertainty is rather low.

    Christopher Probyn, State Street Global Advisors | 21-03-14 | More
  144. Malthus, Marx, and Modern Growth

    Will each future generation continue to enjoy a better quality of life than its immediate predecessor? The likely answer is yes, but the risks seem higher.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 19-03-14 | 1 comment | More
  145. Thoughts on investing - scale and skill in active management

    It's the eternal debate - can active management outperform? Two recent reports offer some interesting insights into the issue.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-03-14 | More
  146. Russia's permanent interests

    If you believe the US State Department has the Crimean situation under control, plan for a bullish scenario for risk assets. Plan for the opposite, if you believe Putin will prevail.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 13-03-14 | 1 comment | More
  147. Global investing trend has much further to go

    Australians are waking up to the fact that they have not had enough global (mainly equity) exposure. Why the case for more global exposure now?

    Dominic McCormick | 12-03-14 | More
  148. Two reasons for US micro-cap stocks for the next five to 10 years

    Increasing corporate activity in the US, and a more positive US macro-economic backdrop make US micro-cap stocks a good place to invest for the next five to 10 years.

    Chris Cuesta, Thomson Horstmann & Bryant | 11-03-14 | More
  149. 2014 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

    This Resources Kit is a deluge of videos, podcasts, and papers for all 18 sessions of the jam-packed Markets Summit 2014 program - The Great Escape (what will markets be like in the QE runout?) so you can "attend" even if you weren't part of the 500-strong audience.

    07-03-14 | More
  150. Realpolitik in Ukraine

    In finance and geopolitics, experience must always prevail over hope, and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian incursion into Ukraine.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 03-03-14 | 2 comments | More
  151. Over the wire or under it, the Great Escape will be dangerous

    In rapid-fire presentations, 18 experts from various parts of the world debated the biggest issue facing the financial world.

    Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News | 25-02-14 | More
  152. Markets Summit 2014 - key takeouts

    In a new format for Markets Summit 2014, delegates took the role of CIO for the day, as the 18 strong presenter faculty made the case for their highest conviction insights.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-02-14 | More
  153. The Aquarium Theory of Investing

    Normal is not our experience - today's world is different from anything in the history of human capitalism. The Aquarium Theory of Investing is one way to gain perspective.

    Brian Singer, William Blair & Co | 18-02-14 | More
  154. Markets Summit 2014 Investment Advisory Board Meeting

    Our Markets Summit faculty debated two critical issues arising from Unconventional Monetary Policy; for the coming two to three years, to substantially overweight DM vs EM Equities in portfolios and substantially overweight Short vs Long Duration Bonds.

    Markets Summit 2014 Investment Advisory Board | 18-02-14 | More
  155. The wrong route to the right destination?

    We must challenge common assumptions about the US and emerging markets to ensure we are focusing on the best routes to the right destination.

    Ronald Temple | 18-02-14 | More
  156. Quantitative squeezing - differentiation in EM Investing

    Emerging Markets were a focal point in 2013, repricing as US stimulus, commodity prices and China's boom subsided. In future, EM performance will depend on individual merit.

    Kathryn Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management | 18-02-14 | More
  157. Why the US recovery will surprise on the upside

    The US is the critical market of the global economy - and there are sign-posts that clearly suggest it is ready to surprise on the upside, with significant implications for portfolios.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 18-02-14 | More
  158. Bonds are a cheap insurance policy

    Think about bonds as an insurance policy for portfolios. With higher yields available, very cheap insurance is even better able to pay for hurdles facing portfolios.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 18-02-14 | More
  159. There will be no Great Escape without a Great Unwind

    To achieve the Great Escape, central banks must first complete the Great Unwind – the removal of ultra-easy monetary policies. So what is the roadmap for the Great Unwind?

    Tim Farrelly | 18-02-14 | More
  160. Inflation risk - will QE ruin retirement?

    Ultra-low interest rates and QE have offset the deflationary forces of debt deleveraging. The challenge policy makers face is when to withdraw the stimulus to avert inflation.

    Susan Gosling | 18-02-14 | More
  161. Can central bankers negotiate the B.U.M.P. without crashing?

    Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy (B.U.M.P.) and it's impact on global financial stability is the key risk for the foreseeable future.

    Nick Bullman, CheckRisk | 18-02-14 | More
  162. Is index investing simply a case of indifference?

    In a Great Escape world, ignoring the index and actively seeking growth investments regardless of size or weightings is more important than ever.

    Alex Milton, NovaPort Capital | 18-02-14 | More
  163. Deploying TAA across credit will be critical as QE unwinds

    The ability to pick inflection points in markets as well as deploying TAA across credit will be the key ingredient going forward.

    Robert Waldner, Invesco | 18-02-14 | More
  164. Does the end of QE mean the end of the yield play?

    Short-term rates are likely to remain low for a prolonged period of time. Investors will still need to source yield, they'll simply have to be more creative to find it.

    Russ Koesterich, BlackRock | 18-02-14 | More
  165. End of Unconventional Monetary Policy

    After a half decade of weakness, robust growth in the US and UK is setting the stage for unconventional monetary policies to be unwound.

    David Hale, David Hale Global Economics | 18-02-14 | More
  166. The sweet spot of the global economy

    There is no doubt that some countries are better placed than others in The Great Escape. In fact, Australia and NZ have the chance to be rock star economies of the 21st century.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 18-02-14 | More
  167. Are the Fed and PBoC ahead of or behind the curve?

    If the US and China prove to be prescient and 'ahead of the curve', financial markets will flourish; if they dawdle, we'll see yet another boom and bust cycle that ends in tears.

    Robert Gay | 18-02-14 | More
  168. QE and navigating the Great Escape

    Most of the world will see an improvement in economic growth this year. Equities are by far the most attractive asset class - but they will be much more volatile.

    Jonathan Pain | 18-02-14 | More
  169. Unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policy

    Today's long period of very easy money and very low yields has distorted the financial system. This will cause unintended consequences in the near future as QE ends.

    Woody Brock | 18-02-14 | More
  170. The Great Escape

    The thought-provoking (and entertaining) introduction to Markets Summit 2014 - The Great Escape - What will markets be like in the QE runout?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 18-02-14 | More
  171. Backgrounder: Unconventional Monetary Policy

    Why Unconventional Monetary Policy is undertaken, how it works, what it does, whether it's inflationary, and some of the unintended consequences.

    PortfolioConstruction Forum | 13-02-14 | More
  172. Diverging markets

    Looking ahead, returns on emerging market debt are likely to better reflect the diversity of the asset class. More than ever, it pays to know your market.

    Goldman Sachs Asset Management | 11-02-14 | More
  173. The US recovery will surprise on the upside

    The US is undeniably the critical market within the global economy - and there are real sign-posts that clearly suggest it is ready to surprise the world on the upside.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 11-02-14 | More
  174. Finding value in a coupon driven market

    2013 was a transitional year, as the market woke up to the reality that extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy would not go on forever. What of 2014?

    Greg McGreevey, Invesco | 11-02-14 | More
  175. From liquidity surfing to bull running

    The start of the end of the Federal Reserve's money printing is expected to reshape the global investment landscape.

    Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | 11-02-14 | More
  176. The trouble with emerging markets

    Turmoil in EM economies has returned with a vengeance. But the threat of a full-fledged crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five.

    Nouriel Roubini | 06-02-14 | More
  177. Academy Summer Seminar 2014 - Resources Kit

    The Academy Summer Seminar 2013 featured four sessions: The paradox of wealth (& what can be done); Don't concentrate too hard; Developing your investment philosophy; and, Financial literacy and cognitive functioning.

    05-02-14 | More
  178. The role of sentiment and contrarian investing

    As we entered 2014, the consensus on the best and worst areas to invest could be described very simply: momentum investing ruled, contrarian investing was dead.

    Dominic McCormick | 05-02-14 | More
  179. What's causing the panic?

    The bullish mood suddenly changed in early January. Here is a structure for thinking about recent market events that may be helpful in assessing new evidence as it comes along.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 04-02-14 | More
  180. Blowing in the wind

    A report on asset allocation intentions of financial planners set the voice in my head singing "How many times..."

    Tim Farrelly | 03-02-14 | More
  181. The end of unconventional monetary policy

    There is a broad acceptance that Bernanke's monetary policy helped stave off another global depression. But the final verdict on unconventional monetary policy remains years away.

    David Hale, David Hale Global Economics | 29-01-14 | More
  182. What a wonderful world

    The majority of the world will see an improvement in economic growth this year. But, after a lengthy and linear rise, equity markets will see much greater volatility this year.

    Jonathan Pain | 28-01-14 | More
  183. Is the worst behind us?

    Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy is not an asymmetric outcome - it is like 50 shades of grey, whips included, particularly for emerging markets.

    Nick Bullman, CheckRisk | 26-01-14 | More
  184. BUMP and the global economy

    Change is stirring and markets do not like uncertainty. Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy is a catalyst for slower economic growth and deflation - market volatility will only increase in 2014.

    Nick Bullman, CheckRisk | 19-01-14 | More
  185. Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy

    Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy is going to prove too hard to achieve. Central Banks will run scared of their political masters; QE or an equivalent will recommence.

    Nick Bullman, CheckRisk | 12-01-14 | More
  186. Outlook on the United States

    The US economy made substantial progress in 2013. The economic outlook for 2014 appears promising -and the US equity market can continue to appreciate.

    Ronald Temple | 07-01-14 | More
  187. Inflation, uncertainty and portfolio management

    Will QE ruin retirement? Looking back at the risks inflation has presented in the past helps us look forward to the potential consequences.

    Susan Gosling | 01-01-14 | More