1. The illusion of policy divergence

    Do not be distracted by conventional presumptions about the Fed’s tightening cycle and interest rates. The ultimate bogeyman of this investment cycle will be credit quality and the warning sign will be when banks tighten lending standards.

    Robert Gay | 30-12-15 | More
  2. "Lower for longer" despite Fed rise

    With the Federal Reserve today moving away from zero with a 25 basis point move, has anything changed my view that bond yields will stay lower for longer? I don't think it has. 2016 should be a very interesting market environment

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 17-12-15 | More
  3. Oil prices and global growth

    One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. The good news is that the welcome but modest effect on growth probably will not die out in 2016.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 14-12-15 | More
  4. The renminbi's ascension to the SDR basket

    The addition of the Chinese renminbi to the IMF's basket of reserve currencies is likely to accelerate foreign access to China's debt markets, one of the most significant milestones in integrating China into the international financial system.

    Robert Gay | 08-12-15 | More
  5. The great policy divergence

    As the Fed normalises its monetary policy and the ECB doubles down on extraordinary measures, we certainly should hope for the best. But we should also be planning for a substantial rise in financial and economic uncertainty.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 03-12-15 | More
  6. The global slowdown - China is not the problem

    Today's slowdown is truly global, with economies everywhere contributing to it. We witness "disappointing" growth, quarter by quarter, year after year. The consensus pays too much attention to China as the cause. So what really is behind all this?

    Woody Brock | 01-12-15 | More
  7. Illiquid assets – portfolio "must have"? Or "mirage"?

    The case for and against illiquid assets is hotly debated. Indeed, other than fees, the battle between industry funds and retail super funds has been heavily fought around significantly differing levels of exposures to the main illiquid asset classes.

    Dominic McCormick | 26-11-15 | 1 comment | More
  8. The case for private over public equity

    I have 80% of my personal assets in private equity - and I plan to increase that to roughly 100%. I don’t have many other good ideas as to what to do in this environment.

    Dr Marcel Erni, Partners Group | 24-11-15 | More
  9. Fatal threat to EU project

    The Paris terror attacks have severe political, strategic and economic implications. After only one week, the Union moved away from its ideal of free movement of people, and fiscal rules.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 20-11-15 | More
  10. Wicksell and capital misallocation

    I am not at all sure that an eventual interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve should be dismissed as an event with little impact in the real world.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 18-11-15 | More
  11. Tailwinds of terror

    If Paris is not an anomaly, and the frequency or magnitude of terrorist attacks against soft targets in G7 cities increases, what will be the geopolitical, economic and investment consequences?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 17-11-15 | More
  12. Global monetary policy - the view from Down Under

    In October, I joined Dr Woody Brock and PIMCO's Fed watcher, Tony Crescenzi, and 18 senior practitioners for a workshop organised by PortfolioConstruction Forum on where global monetary policy was headed. Three key views emerged.

    Robert Gay | 16-11-15 | More
  13. Why inflation is lower than you think

    Financial pundits routinely claim that US inflation is much higher than the reported statistics. Viewed over the longer term, however, US inflation is far lower than reflected in the published data, according to economist, Dr Woody Brock.

    Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | 11-11-15 | More
  14. Preparing for Fed lift-off

    The US Fed is near-certain to start its tightening cycle on 16 December. Apart from praising Yellen for consistency and foresight (instead of castigating her for confusion and indecisiveness), how should investors react?

    Anatole Kaletsky | 10-11-15 | 1 comment | More
  15. It's the end of the EU as we knew it

    Since Angela Merkel singlehandedly opened Germany's borders to refugees, asylum seekers, migrants and any other nomads, the continent has been plunged into chaos. It threatens to wreck the European Union - or, at least turn it into an entirely different organisation.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 09-11-15 | More
  16. Harnessing India’s growth by investing before the crowd

    To harness the full potential of India's growth story, investors should seek exposure to India's mid and small cap companies, rather than just the large, liquid companies with significant global revenue bases which dominate benchmark allocations.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 04-11-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  17. From memory to denial in Russia

    In Putin's third presidential term, dissidents are routinely dubbed deviants, fifth columnists, and traitors, as the regime leads a drive for national unity based on religion, tradition, and paranoid rhetoric. For the moment, Putinism is the only game in town.

    Robert Skidelsky, Warwick University | 03-11-15 | 1 comment | More
  18. Finance industry destroying US economy

    According to a Harvard Business School study, the percentage of US GDP attributable to the financial industry tripled from 1950 to the 2000s. Has any of this increase improved the services rendered by the financial services industry to the real economy?

    Michael Edesess | 21-10-15 | More
  19. The imaginary threat of short-termism

    The idea that financial markets are too focused on the short term is gaining ground in the media, academics and now, politicians. Upon closer inspection, the supposed negative consequences of investor short-termism appear not to be happening at all.

    Mark Roe, Harvard Law School | 20-10-15 | More
  20. The great migration & investment

    The influx of refugees and economic migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East appears as broad-based as the ancient migrations that defined Europe throughout history. Europe needs migrants from a purely economic perspective.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 07-10-15 | 1 comment | More
  21. Middle East melt down & global risk

    With the US on its way to energy independence, there's a risk it and its Western allies will consider the Middle East less important. That's wishful thinking - a burning Middle East can destabilise the world economically and socially.

    Nouriel Roubini | 06-10-15 | More
  22. A three box approach to building debt portfolios

    With interest rates at record lows, it is a really good time to revisit how we build debt portfolios. A three box approach can really help in making and communicating investment decisions for the secure part of their portfolio in the new, low interest rate environment.

    Tim Farrelly | 05-10-15 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  23. Faith in central banks fading fast

    Markets have a habit of coming along and kicking you in the teeth when you least expect it - and often when you are most confident you know what you are doing. The bull market in central bank omnipotence is probably over.

    Dominic McCormick | 29-09-15 | More
  24. Opportunity in turmoil

    Turmoil often provides a fantastic opportunity to reassess one's portfolio - and we're currently going through exactly such turmoil. The question is: what are the critical issues that investors should focus on as they rethink portfolio positioning today?

    Vadim Zlotnikov, AB Global | 22-09-15 | More
  25. The Fed throws EMs a lifeline

    Yellen has confirmed what should have been obvious all along - the Fed is not indifferent to international financial stress and its risk-management approach remains strongly biased in favour of "lower for longer". But four things about US monetary policy are frequently misunderstood.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 21-09-15 | More
  26. What '87, '98, '05 & '15 have in common

    In all of '87, '98, '05 and '15, the US economy was close to full employment, inflation was tame, commodity prices low, EMs were under financial strain, volatility roiled financial markets, the US dollar was strong, and US monetary policy excessively generous. What followed?

    Robert Gay | 21-09-15 | More
  27. The EU is falling apart

    Europe in 2015 stands at the crossroads. The euro crisis and the refugee crisis are testing the foundations of the European project. Even if the EU survives this challenge, it will be a much changed and probably much weaker.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 17-09-15 | More
  28. The 3 key drivers of markets

    The last few weeks have felt like riding on that old, antiquated rollercoaster – unexpected turns, harsh stops and, frankly, no clear sense of when the ride was going to end. Why have markets reacted so sharply, and what's ahead?

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 16-09-15 | More
  29. The residential housing bubble to cause a recession?

    The Australian residential property market is stretched. But about to crash, triggering a recession? It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

    Tim Farrelly | 15-09-15 | More
  30. Europe's recovery - from caterpillar to butterfly?

    The progress we have seen in European markets in 2015 is sustainable over the next 12 months. But, investors should temper return expectations and anticipate continued market volatility.

    JP Morgan Asset Management | 02-09-15 | More
  31. The case for credit

    The outlook for developed credit markets, and in particular the US credit market, remains constructive. Here are Three reasons support the case for credit now.

    Mark Kiesel, PIMCO | 01-09-15 | More
  32. Real return funds... lacking reality?

    Real return investing isn't too real at all, with big targets like CPI+5%. It is an objective that is not strongly linked to the reality of investment markets - so prepare for another investment approach aligned with disappointment.

    Michael Furey | 01-09-15 | 9 comments | More
  33. Why Europe failed

    To be clear, Europe is still one of the most developed, most prosperous, and most liveable places on earth. However, the cracks in Europe are clearly visible. It is a world region that made the past but will not make the future.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 31-08-15 | More
  34. Oil's new normal

    Oil prices have headed south again. The current decline also has an important demand dimension. A sustained price recovery will not occur quickly...

    Mohamed El-Erian | 31-08-15 | More
  35. Conference 2015: the director’s cut

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.

    31-08-15 | More
  36. What to worry about in China

    Fears that China's economy is teetering on the edge of collapse are exaggerated. But it is slowing. And the slowdown will inevitably highlight problems that until now have remained largely hidden, triggering fresh bouts of market volatility.

    Andrew Batson, Gavekal | 27-08-15 | More
  37. The real message from oil

    If you want to understand falling oil prices, forget Chinese consumption and focus on Middle East production. And, if you want to understand the world economy, forget about stock markets - focus on the fact that cheap oil always boosts global growth.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 27-08-15 | More
  38. The true causes of this week's global market correction

    This week's market correction is long overdue. It is also not over because the true underlying problems are much more serious than the commonly cited causes. And, at last, markets are teaching Xi and Li who in fact is the boss.

    Woody Brock | 26-08-15 | More
  39. Time to think contrarian

    I don't believe this week's market corrections portend the ultimate downturn in this investment cycle. The endgame will take a few more years. Here are some market, currency and China milestones to watch for to check this view is correct.

    Robert Gay | 25-08-15 | More
  40. Is China done?

    Many have taken an alarmist approach to the recent sell-off in China's A sharemarket, declaring the bubble has definitely burst. The question was well put by one of our key clients who in late June asked, "Is China Done?".

    Dominic McCormick | 21-08-15 | More
  41. The Great Debate - At the crossroads...

    Our eclectic Panel - a politician, a pastor, a professor, a portfolio manager, a practitioner, a provocateur, and a 'preneur, moderated by our Publisher - addresses Conference 2015 delegates' questions about key Crossroads, Dilemmas and Decisions.

    20-08-15 | 1.25 CE | More
  42. Weather markets with risk strategies

    While 36% of investors say they are ‘reviewing their need for downside protection’, only 8% are currently implementing it. Yet there are many strategies to manage risk in portfolios.

    Jonathan Shead, State Street Global Advisors | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  43. Liquid Alts – a better Alternative

    Going forward, there are headwinds for equity and fixed income markets, however the outlook for alpha generation from many alternative strategies remains robust. Now is an attractive point in the cycle to add, or increase exposure to alternative strategies.

    Ian Haas, Neuberger Berman | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  44. At the crossroads: insist on a very active equities approach

    The smooth sailing of Australian equities over the last few years has developed complacency among investors. But rougher seas ahead will require a more active approach. It’s time to ensure that you engage a truly active manager.

    Dr Richard Whiteoak, Allan Gray Australia | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  45. Infrastructure investing needs a tight definition

    At the heart of defensive investing lies infrastructure assets - but only only in its purest form is infrastructure able to deliver the defensive qualities that investors are targeting.

    Andrew Maple-Brown, Maple-Brown Abbott | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  46. Negative yields are not catastrophic

    As volatility in bond markets becomes more pronounced, and asset bubbles develop, investors will need to reassess their approach to the asset class. Unconstrained bond investors can exploit opportunities across relative value, yield curve and fixed income volatility.

    Sebastian MacKay, Standard Life Investments | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  47. China is a nation at the crossroads

    The reformist credibility of the Chinese government has been severely damaged by its market intervention, which could be very serious for the ongoing transformation of the world’s most populous nation.

    Jonathan Pain | 20-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  48. After wasting the Goldilocks Era, EM are at a crossroads

    EM policymakers have wasted their commodity-fueled Goldilocks Era and are sitting at a crossroads. Without a dramatic policy shift, EM are a value trap, if not an outright bubble.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 20-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  49. 3 fundamental strategies for adding alpha

    Indexing could be as problematic during the next few decades as it has been successful in the past few. This heightens the appeal of active management for those brave enough to pursue it.

    Woody Brock | 20-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  50. An Australian recession - possible, but not probable

    It's been almost 24 years since Australia's last recession. It could be said Australia is “due for one”. While it would be foolish to say that the chances of a recession in Australia are zero, it's also wrong to say that they are over 50%.

    Saul Eslake, Independent Economist | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  51. Australia – recession is beckoning

    Special one-off factors have underpinned Australia's record expansion. The key to forecasting the next Australian recession lies in forecasting the end of cheap money – if correct, then clearly a major investment crossroad for all Australian residents and investors.

    Chris Watling | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  52. Alts - answer to the diver-sification dilemma

    With traditional asset classes expensive and historically low yields on bonds compromising their role as a diversifier, investors are at a crossroads. Investors should be looking for alternative sources of return and genuine diversification.

    Ashley O'Connor, Invesco Australia | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  53. Active share – winning the game of loans

    There are two possible outcomes from the extreme debt levels in the global economy - high inflation or long-term below trend growth. The key dilemma is how to minimise this uncertainty and return dispersion.

    Warryn Robertson | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  54. China’s property bubble set to burst!

    Recent stock market volatility demonstrates that asset price growth expectations can’t be taken for granted in China, despite intervention from policymakers. The bursting of China’s property bubble poses a major risk to the stability of China and the global economy – and a critical dilemma for investors.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  55. Exploit the structural issues in Australian Equities

    QE has driven a search for yield globally, resulting in a unique Australian experience that has seen the major ASX indices become increasingly concentrated. We are at the crossroads for active Australian equity management.

    Paul Drzewucki, Ellerston Capital | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  56. Fixed income - it's time to jump off the benchmark bus

    The US Federal Reserve is (reluctantly) ending a long period of abnormally low rates. Investors should consider flexible benchmark unaware approaches in their fixed income portfolios, to potentially mitigate adverse market conditions going forward.

    Stephen Miller, BlackRock | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  57. New energy technologies - the Utility Death Spiral was hype

    Consumers and the energy industry are at a crossroad. Customer choices are impacting different parts of the energy supply chain, but energy networks themselves are insulated from emerging technologies.

    David Maywald, RARE Infrastructure | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  58. Small cap equities are an essential risk diversifier

    The diverse range of quality small cap companies with recurring earnings and growing dividend yields offer investors essential risk diversification and should be incorporated into portfolios.

    Simon Conn, Investors Mutual | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  59. Rising rates - investors can benefit

    Many investors are facing a dilemma with the perceived risk embedded in debt markets as Fed lift-off looms. However, reality beckons - rates will rise and investors can benefit.

    Tony Crescenzi | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  60. Panel: The global outlook - lower for longer, or higher is here?

    Our panel debated the contrasting views of the two presenters who addressed this "crossroad" - that rates are likely to go higher than most expect over the next three years vs that markets will go on tolerating lower interest rates for far longer.

    19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  61. "Lower for longer" is the view of the bulls

    The view that markets will go on tolerating lower interest rates for far longer is the more benign, market friendly (almost bullish) outlook than the common thinking that higher interest rates will be good.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  62. Markets mispricing future rates

    With the Fed signalling its intention to raise rates, there is great disagreement about the quantum of rises ahead. Rates are likely to go higher than most expect - and the risk of a material equity market correction is elevated.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  63. At the crossroads… Dilemmas I Decisions

    Portfolio construction is approaching a crossroads – critical questions must be answered, and critical decisions must now be made.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  64. At the crossroads - insist on very active equities approach

    Six years into a bull market, Australian equity values are beginning to look stretched. But large divergences in valuations across sectors are creating great opportunities for truly active managers.

    Julian Morrison & Dr Richard Whiteoak, Allan Gray | 13-08-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  65. The phenomenon of negative bond yields

    The longer interest rates stay negative, the more distortions will appear in financial markets. Certain trends are already in place which could ultimately lead to severe distortions.

    Standard Life Investments | 13-08-15 | More
  66. Infrastructure investing needs a tight definition

    Infrastructure has gained greater focus in recent years, with investors drawn to its defensive characteristics. But infrastructure investing requires a tight definition to deliver the defensive attributes that investors are targeting.

    Andrew Maple-Brown, Maple-Brown Abbott | 13-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  67. Concentrations, correlations and structural issues in Australian equities

    The increasing concentration of the Australian stock market indices is mirrored by the concentration of the Australian funds management industry. What does this mean for alpha generation?

    Paul Drzewucki, Ellerston Capital | 13-08-15 | 1.00 CE | 1 comment | More
  68. Emerging technologies

    Consumers and the energy industry are both at a crossroads - hence the exclusion of some parts of the electricity supply chain from the investible universe of low-risk global listed infrastructure securities.

    David Maywald, RARE Infrastructure | 13-08-15 | More
  69. The Great Escape​​ - Global Central Bank Focus

    There are three escapes the Fed had to make in order to declare its mission a success - escape from a liquidity trap, escape from quantitative easing, and, escape from the zero bound. Only the last remains. Will it achieve its great escape? Probably.

    Tony Crescenzi | 10-08-15 | More
  70. Nearing normal

    The US Federal Reserve is (reluctantly) ending a long period of abnormally low rates. Traditional drivers of portfolio returns such as productivity and earnings growth are set to reassert themselves.

    BlackRock Investment Institute | 31-07-15 | More
  71. Risk aware investment

    Traditionally, risk management might have been considered as a monitoring activity only. Risk analysis, can, however, add value at the earlier stages of the investment process.

    Mark Deans, UBS Global Asset Management | 31-07-15 | More
  72. China's property bubble is set to burst!

    There are a number of reasons to be optimistic about China's long-term economic future, but the short-to-medium term challenges are considerable.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 31-07-15 | More
  73. Not a People’s Republic - an empire

    The single most important macro-trend of our time is China's attempt to transform itself from a typical (if large) emerging market into an empire. The interesting bit for investors is that growing empires usually breed strong currencies.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 30-07-15 | More
  74. China - the true risks to its future growth

    China is a glass both half full and half empty. It will continue to grow and become a great superpower, but its future growth rate will be significantly lower than President Xi's "new normal" 6% forecast.

    Woody Brock | 29-07-15 | More
  75. Market mani-pulation goes global

    Market manipulation has become standard operating procedure in policy circles around the world. The more proactive Chinese approach is the policy equivalent of attempting to catch a falling knife – arresting a market in free-fall.

    Stephen Roach | 27-07-15 | More
  76. Now for the next Euro Crisis

    As we have just witnessed, it took an enormous effort to keep Greece in the eurozone. In the end, Europe could deal with the problem. For other members, such propping up will not always be possible. What happens next in France, Spain and Italy may well turn out to be more worrying than anything we have seen around Athens so far.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 23-07-15 | More
  77. Bonds and the Fed's rate liftoff

    This week, Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has repeatedly said it is likely the Fed will lift its policy rate at its September meeting. It will be a minor adjustment but a momentous event. In short, I expect the first 100 basis points of Fed normalisation will have relatively little effect on long-term rates - with a critical caveat.

    Robert Gay | 21-07-15 | More
  78. The mirage of the financial singularity

    Will alpha eventually go to zero for every imaginable investment strategy, as suggested by Swedroe & Berkin's The Incredible Shrinking Alpha? The idea of financial singularity may seem inspiring, but real world markets are nowhere close to it.

    Robert J. Shiller | 20-07-15 | More
  79. The end of an empire

    We should acknowledge the Greek crisis for what it is - the death-knell for the European dream of empire. The growing reality is the return of borders, national preferences, and opt-outs. The euro has become a structurally weak currency and European bonds are likely to underperform those of other, nonshrinking, empires.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 20-07-15 | More
  80. Markets from China, media commentary from Uranus

    Despite all the negative ink that's been spilt over the recent collapse in Chinese equities, we continue to believe that a year from now there will be more marginal buyers of Chinese equities than today.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 10-07-15 | More
  81. Greece, from bad to worse

    Whatever the EU now decides at its summit on Sunday (the umpteenth, by my count), it will be costly. It is unlikely to work. And it was totally avoidable.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 10-07-15 | More
  82. Should investors look after PETS?

    Understanding PETS - Political, Environmental, Technological/Scientific, Social - factors is relevant, if not crucial, to us as citizens. But to what extent are they relevant or important to investing?

    Prof Jack Gray, UTS | 09-07-15 | More
  83. Burning bridges

    Greece's creditors are likely to find it very difficult to compromise. Capitulate today and Greece will be back for more concessions in future. Many politicians will want to draw the line here and now, making Grexit highly likely.

    UBS Global Asset Management | 07-07-15 | More
  84. Crossroads: Is it lower rates for longer? Or back to higher rates?

    Will low interest rates be with us for decades? Or are higher rates ahead? Our Academy panel argues the case for "lower for longer" versus "back to higher" - and the implications for portfolios.

    Hamish Douglas, Rob Mead, Chris Joye, Tim Farrelly | 03-07-15 | 1.50 CE | More
  85. Four geopolitical issues to watch

    Four "big picture" geopolitical conditions will affect policy and markets going forward - in order of importance, the South China Sea, Russia returns, the end of Sykes-Picot in the Middle East, and the unwinding of the EU.

    Bill O'Grady, Confluence Investment Management | 01-07-15 | More
  86. Greferendum and the markets

    Contrary to most of headlines, the astonishing weekend events in Greece will almost certainly prove bullish for risk assets around the world and especially in Europe.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 30-06-15 | More
  87. Shelter from the storm in Europe

    The current focus on the downpour in Greece is understandable. But we should not be so distracted that we fail to prepare for two other possible storms – and the possibility that they converge into a perfect storm.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 29-06-15 | More
  88. Symposium 2015 - my key takeouts

    As always, PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium is the highlight of my year in terms of professional development. This year's was probably the best to date. Here are the key takeouts I sent to my clients.

    Janet Natta, Smart Money Advice | 22-06-15 | More
  89. Academy

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy challenges and advances portfolio construction knowledge and wisdom. Open to a select group of just 80 senior, experienced portfolio construction practitioners each year, Academy will enable you to continuously develop, test, and validate your portfolio construction philosophy and decision-making framework.

    20-06-15 | More
  90. 2014-2015 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2014-2015 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2014-2015 curriculum year...

    20-06-15 | More
  91. 2013-2014 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2013-2014 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2013-2014 curriculum year...

    20-06-15 | More
  92. 2012-2013 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2012-2013 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2012-2013 curriculum year.

    20-06-15 | More
  93. 2011-2012 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2011-2012 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2011-2012 curriculum year.

    20-06-15 | More
  94. 2010-2011 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2010-2011 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2010-2011 curriculum year.

    20-06-15 | More
  95. Academy Winter Seminar 2015 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Winter Seminar 2015 featured four sessions. This Resources Kit contains the materials for preparing for the Seminar, as well as the presentation slides.

    15-06-15 | 37 comments | More
  96. "No property bubble" case lacks substance

    If the "no property bubble" camp is to gain credibility, they need to develop much stronger arguments than many trotted out recently.

    Dominic McCormick | 12-06-15 | More
  97. Protect and survive

    I am convinced that both economies and markets are reaching a point of transition where one of two discrete outcomes is likely. Portfolios must offer the potential for reasonable performance in either eventuality.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 11-06-15 | More
  98. Outperformance candidates

    In 2015, currencies will basically drive the outperformance candidates as economies try to steal growth from each other. Plus, there is a decade-long mania candidate - healthcare.

    Lenka Martinek, BCA Research | 08-06-15 | More
  99. 2015 Symposium - Resources Kit

    Symposium 2015 featured 20+ leading investment professionals arguing their best, high conviction ideas about the markets, strategies and investing.

    05-06-15 | More
  100. The liquidity time bomb

    Macro liquidity is feeding asset booms and bubbles in equity, bond, and other asset markets. As more investors pile into overvalued, increasingly illiquid assets – such as bonds – the risk of a long-term crash increases.

    Nouriel Roubini | 01-06-15 | More
  101. Big raises and lifestyle creep

    The surprising result of a recent study is that the "conventional" view that earnings rise steadily (above inflation) throughout our careers is not accurate. Good spending habits established early on can make an astounding difference to wealth over a lifetime.

    Michael Kitces | 29-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  102. Small is beautiful

    We now have enough history to determine who the winners were from 25 years of globalisation. The answer? Small countries. The investment conclusion is obvious - overweight good companies listed in small countries.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 29-05-15 | More
  103. Fantasyland for Europe's bonds

    This week, Portugal's sovereign bonds traded on negative yield - flying in the face of any sensible assessment of credit risk. There seems to be little chance that the ECB's belated and oversized QE program will end gracefully. Policy blunders never do.

    Robert Gay | 28-05-15 | More
  104. The patient is out, but the doctor is (all) in

    Divergences in global economic and policy outcomes have important implications for markets around the world. This policy divergence has directly influenced asset prices across the globe with implications for stocks, bonds and currency markets.

    David Fisher, PIMCO | 28-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  105. The Chinese property bubble is set to burst!

    China now has to deal with a massive excess supply of property… This is unlikely to be “just another property cycle” in China. The bursting of China’s property bubble poses a major risk to both the country’s stability and the global economy.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 28-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  106. Cash may not be king - but it could be a handsome prince

    In this environment, what’s very important is capital preservation. The problem investors have is that there are very few places to hide. So, while cash may not be king, I think it could end up being a very handsome prince.

    Simon Doyle, Schroders | 26-05-15 | More
  107. Symposium 2015 Key Takeouts Workshop - Strategies & Investing

    Each of our Symposium 2015 DDF presenters gave a 2-minute overview of their high conviction portfolio construction strategy idea.

    20-05-15 | More
  108. Harness India's growth by investing before the crowd

    Rather than large, liquid companies with significant global revenue bases which dominate benchmark allocations, investors should seek exposure to India’s surging local demand…

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  109. NZ debt – picking the highest yield is not enough

    uilding NZ fixed interest portfolios is harder than it has ever been… Portfolios need to be constructed for the specific needs of clients, which will typically be a combination of liquidity, income, quality, and diversification

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  110. All is not lost in preserving yield in a low-yield environment

    Investors will need to hunt out alternative sources of yield to meet their investment objectives. All is not lost. Yield can be preserved in a low yield world but investors need to be aware of the risks and trade-offs.

    Keith Poore, AMP Capital NZ | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  111. Symposium 2015 Key Takeouts Workshop - The Markets

    Each panelist outlined which high conviction markets idea from Symposium 2015 day one they agreed with most, and which one they agreed with least.

    20-05-15 | More
  112. Asset allocation will dominate portfolio returns in the years ahead

    As we all brace for lift-off in the key US Federal funds rate, a robust, top-down macro perspective will be even more critical to the success of portfolios than ever.

    Jonathan Pain | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  113. Portfolio construction implications panel - The NZ Economy

    Our Symposium 2015 debated their high conviction ideas on the drivers of, and medium-term outlook for, the New Zealand economy.

    19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  114. Economic growth is the answer, not the problem

    Economic growth has had a lot of bad press recently. But on closer inspection, the objections typically leveled against growth do not stand up to empirical scrutiny.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  115. NZ is not a rock star economy. Will it ever be?

    NZ has plummeted down the global income per capita rankings from third in the 1950s to 23rd in 2015. Successive governments have done little to reverse the decline. Why have we failed to regain our position?

    Prof Robert MacCulloch, Auckland University Business School | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  116. Portfolio construction implications panel - Market

    Our Symposium 2015 Faculty debated their high conviction ideas on the drivers of, and medium-term (two to three year) outlook for the markets.

    19-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  117. Investing in NZ is a big challenge for an Au-based, Kiwi investor

    Despite a genuine desire to invest in New Zealand on behalf of a substantial Australian superannuation fund, after several years of trying, no money has been invested.

    Sean Henaghan, AMP Capital | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  118. Oil price moves are a cyclical risk

    For investors, one of the most important events of 2014 was the dramatic collapse in the oil price. The long-term equilibrium price is now likely to be lower. Overall, portfolios must be repositioned for increased volatility.

    Nick Langley | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  119. Don’t ignore the tech sector for growth investing

    Returns in defensive equity yield and income sectors have been outsized as bond yields have fallen. Growth sectors have underperformed. But globally, technology shares are cheap on a relative basis.

    Andrew Bascand, Harbour Asset Management | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  120. Get used to low interest rates

    World-wide low interest rates are not a temporary phenomenon. The world has changed and it is highly likely that the current low rate environment will be with us for decades. Getting used to low rates will be a critical adjustment for all investors to make in the coming years.

    Tim Farrelly | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  121. Desperate central banks are causing Pollyanna asset prices

    Slow growth is an old story. The new story is that world is finally beginning to re-balance - a process that unfortunately will take another 20 years. Well-intended policies are causing bubbles and distortions to asset prices.

    Robert Gay | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  122. The global economy is firing on all cylinders

    The outlook for the global economy is unambiguously positive. At long last, all regional economic cylinders are firing in unison and secular stagnation is yesterday's story.

    Jonathan Pain | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  123. Facilitating debate on the markets, strategies & investing

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium NZ 2015 Moderator, Graham Rich, opened Symposium NZ 2015 in his usual thought-provoking (and entertaining) way, highlighting key issues to consider over the jam-packed, marathon program.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  124. Divergences, debt and economics

    In a world dependent on robust economic growth to solve or postpone debt problems the over-reliance on an apparently slowing US economy is of major concern.

    Dominic McCormick | 14-05-15 | More
  125. NZ fixed interest - picking the highest yield is not enough

    With NZ fixed interest portfolios arguably harder to build than ever before, this paper introduces a framework for practitioners to build fixed interest portfolios for to meet the needs of individual clients.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 13-05-15 | More
  126. Secular reflation

    I think we have seen the low in European bond yields and that we have commenced on the path - at long last - of secular reflation.

    Jonathan Pain | 13-05-15 | More
  127. Riding a wave of accommodation - carefully

    Lower oil prices and a wave of monetary policy accommodation are a net positive for the global economy, but there are losers as well as winners, especially in some emerging market economies.

    Richard Clarida and Andrew Balls, PIMCO | 12-05-15 | More
  128. The oil price fall and portfolios

    The collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 is very large in a historical context. This paper explores the implications for portfolios.

    Dr Jonathan Mirrlees-Black, RARE Infrastructure | 12-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  129. The US dollar joins the currency wars

    Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 central banks have eased monetary policy. Upward pressure on the US dollar has been sharp. America's entry into the fray was only a matter of time.

    Nouriel Roubini | 11-05-15 | More
  130. A sense of an ending

    I have a sense of a secular bull market ending with a whimper, not a bang. Only the timing is in doubt. Because of this, I have increasingly a great unrest. You should too.

    Bill Gross, Janus Capital Group | 05-05-15 | More
  131. Size matters, if you control your junk

    In recent years, academics have been at war over whether the small cap premium exists. This recent paper finds it does - if you control for quality - and that it is significant, and not time or market specific.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 30-04-15 | 2.00 CE | More
  132. China equities: Is the rally sustainable?

    A surprise rate cut in November 2014 and investor expectations of further easing measures have triggered a strong rally in China equities - both A shares, and in the last three weeks, H shares. Can it last?

    Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | 29-04-15 | More
  133. No one likes to pay taxes

    To maintain "no taxation, no representation" deal with its people, China's leadership seems to be going down a path that'd see index funds as forced buyers of Chinese equities.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 29-04-15 | More
  134. Should we focus on E/P instead?

    Is it time to start thinking more about E/P ratios than P/E ratios? After all, predicting that returns may be higher or lower with a low (or high) earnings yield (and a corresponding P/E ratio) really isn't so controversial.

    Michael Kitces | 28-04-15 | More
  135. Why the 1981-2015 equity bull market will not be repeated

    We are reminded daily that the US stock market has achieved record highs between 2009 and today. But the true bull market covers 35 years. What does an understanding it tell us about the future? The answer is: a lot.

    Woody Brock | 27-04-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  136. Playing with matches

    Fixed income markets seem to have gotten the correct message, albeit perhaps for the wrong reasons – short-term interest rates will stay low for a long time.

    Robert Gay | 24-04-15 | More
  137. A post-volatility world

    These are words that I utter with the utmost caution - this time, it really is different. For something genuinely new to the modern experience, consider the curious case of collapsing equity volatility.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 23-04-15 | More
  138. Much lower interest rates for longer

    Low GDP growth, very low real rates, higher PEs and valuation multiples - it's a new world. We all need to get used to it. In particular, we should review client spending plans.

    Tim Farrelly | 21-04-15 | 1 comment | More
  139. My own take on housing

    House and land prices should come down, in real terms. But there isn’t anything obviously irrational about house prices as they are.

    Michael Reddell | 17-04-15 | More
  140. Spencer again

    Grant Spencer's interview on Radio New Zealand's Checkpoint last night answered one of my questions. It seems that Spencer, and the Reserve Bank, now favour a capital gains tax.

    Michael Reddell | 16-04-15 | More
  141. Housing and the Deputy Governor

    I had been going to write something about housing this morning, but got distracted in the WEO database. House prices, especially in Auckland, are a political and social scandal.

    Michael Reddell | 15-04-15 | More
  142. How indexation killed growth

    Indexing, as I have written before, is a form of socialism, since capital is allocated not as it should be. It is hard to think of a more stupid way to allocate this scarce resource.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 15-04-15 | More
  143. Why Germany should exit the eurozone

    A German exit from the eurozone would give Germany the currency it deserves and leave the rest of the eurozone with the carcass of a currency well suited for its needs.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 14-04-15 | More
  144. What the parity party says about Australia and NZ

    What does dollar parity say about New Zealand and Australia? It is a tale of two different countries. And, it is a tale of a major role reversal.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 14-04-15 | More
  145. Gold may regain its shine

    While it has offered a very bumpy and challenging ride in recent years, I suspect those prepared to buy and hold some gold exposure today will be well rewarded.

    Dominic McCormick | 13-04-15 | More
  146. Three regions, three strategies

    Fundamentally, there are three ways to make money in financial markets. A well structured, well-diversified portfolio should encompass all three, across all geographies.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 26-03-15 | More
  147. The end of an era

    Now the Fed has opened the door to normalising interest, what constitutes "normal"? Take care in stretching for yield now the Fed is no longer making promises.

    Robert Gay | 24-03-15 | More
  148. Greece's madmen at work

    Hardly a day passes that a Greek government official does not add a needless provocation to the bailout debate. Is this just madness? Or is there method in it?

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 23-03-15 | 1 comment | More
  149. The investment implications of Fed tightening

    After more than six years of near zero interest rates, the Fed seems set upon the long journey back to more normal monetary policy. What are the investment implications?

    Dr David Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management | 23-03-15 | 1.25 CE | More
  150. The real change and opportunity in Japan

    A behavioural shift by Japan's people from a 20-year deflationary mindset to an inflationary one represents a major opportunity set for investors for many years to come.

    Tim Griffen, Lazard Asset Management | 19-03-15 | More
  151. Demographic changes, financial markets, and the economy

    This paper by Rob Arnott and Denis Chaves looks the effects of different age cohorts on GDP and asset class returns.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 19-03-15 | 1.75 CE | More
  152. The messy politics of economic divergence

    The world is increasingly characterised by divergence - in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus, in financial markets.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 17-03-15 | More
  153. Beware the euro consensus

    The US dollar is hitting new 12-year highs almost daily and the euro seems to be plunging to below parity. But there are at least four factors pressuring it the other way.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 16-03-15 | More
  154. Macro will not be the market

    Macroeconomic outlooks may differ from where you can receive market returns. The outlook can be summarised in three words - improvement, divergence and decoupling.

    Kevin Anderson, State Street Global Advisors | 09-03-15 | More
  155. Why the stock-bond disconnect?

    How should one understand the disconnect between new highs reached by global equity indices and new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide?

    Kenneth Rogoff | 09-03-15 | 3 comments | More
  156. The oil bubble implosion

    Since the 1980s, oil prices have fallen 50% or more over six months just twice - including last year. Was oil a bubble which has now imploded? Or is oil set to bounce back?

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 04-03-15 | More
  157. The world is a confusing place

    With 20 speakers at Markets Summit 2015, there were inevitably conflicting views of the world. This year, the bears outnumbered the bulls and the mood was noticeably downbeat compared to last year.

    Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News | 02-03-15 | More
  158. Buy the bad and the ugly

    Despite forecasts of continued superior US economic growth, we are selling down our beloved US quality stocks in favor of the problem children of the investing world.

    Ben Inker, GMO | 25-02-15 | More
  159. 2015 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

    Markets Summit 2015 - Cyclical? Structural? Secular? - featured 19 international and local investment experts debating their best ideas on the key cyclical, structural and secular issues driving the medium-term outlook for markets - and, of course, the implications for portfolios. This Resources Kit is a deluge of videos, podcasts, and papers for all sessions of the jam-packed program so you can "attend" even if you weren't there.

    24-02-15 | 10.00 CE | 1 comment | More
  160. Four reasons for collapsing oil prices (and future prospects)

    The world was shocked by the oil price collapse. Anuraag Shah, who made a fortune betting on a falling oil price, summarised the astonishment - "It's nuts!". Actually, it isn't.

    Woody Brock | 24-02-15 | More
  161. Markets Summit 2015 Great Debate - intl vs Au equities

    In this not-to-be-missed session of a not-to-be-missed program few prisoners were taken in debating the moot "overweight int'l equities, underweight Au equities.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-02-15 | 3 comments | More
  162. Currency tailwind losing force?

    Investing globally is increasingly popular with the expectation of a continued weak AUD being a big driver. But easy currency gains may have been had.

    Dominic McCormick | 19-02-15 | More
  163. Signals revisited

    Pippa picked up where she left off in her opening keynote, tying the Markets Summit 2015 proceedings together, summarising her key takeouts, and their implications for portfolios.

    Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  164. Markets Summit 2015 - The Great Debate

    In this simulated investment board meeting, our day's 17 international and local Faculty members debated and voted on whether to overweight international equities and underweight Australian equities in portfolios on a two- to three-year view.

    Markets Summit 2015 Investment Advisory Board | 17-02-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  165. In a race without a hare, the US holds the cards in 2015

    In 2014, we witnessed the return of market volatility. With potentially significant market return and volatility, investors should consider portfolio positioning before the fact.

    Erik L. Knutzen, Neuberger Berman | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  166. Navigating the fourth D is essential for performance

    The fourth D confronting investors - the disruptions wrought by technological change. Cash cows, thoroughbred stocks and roll-ups are best placed in a world challenged by the four Ds.

    Kate Howitt | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  167. Babies - the key secular trend that will drive portfolio returns

    While demographics will still dominate into the future, energy and automation are quickly rising to be just as important with significant implications for portfolios.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  168. Break-up of the eurozone is inevitable

    A currency union absent of full political union is inherently unstable. After the first country exits the eurozone, markets will attack the next most vulnerable. The dominos will fall.

    Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  169. Time to think "yes" Japan, not "ex" Japan

    Few opportunities are available today where discounts to intrinsic value outweigh downside risks. Japanese corporations are increasingly embracing ROE and shareholder value.

    John Hock, Altrinsic Global Advisors | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  170. India's transformation: a compelling fixed income opportunity

    As its capital markets develop, the macro picture improves, inflation comes under control, and the economy grows, India's credit and rates markets present a compelling opportunity.

    Neeraj Seth, BlackRock | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  171. Greenspan 2.0 - the Bernanke Boom will bust

    Since Q4 2014, oil prices have plunged, currency markets are at war and intraday volatility of stock indices is disturbing. A crisis mode has started. Asset allocators must mitigate risks before this next crisis inevitably hits.

    Thomas Poullaouec, State Street Global Advisors | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  172. Oil price moves are a cyclical risk, adding volatility to markets

    One of the most important events of 2014 for investors was the dramatic collapse in the oil price. Overall, investment portfolios must be repositioned for increased volatility.

    Nick Langley | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  173. The great US equity bull market is finished

    The US equity market will disappoint going forward. Global equity investors need to be far less US-centric to capture better returns.

    Joe Bracken, Tempo Asset Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  174. Limbo lower - real rates are structurally lower

    Navigating the lower limbo stick will require more unconstrained investing, greater consideration of the chosen benchmark, and a greater focus on downside risk management.

    Tracey McNaughton, UBS Global Asset Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  175. Australia's New Neutral: Low interest rates for even longer

    Lower 'neutral' monetary policy rates across the developed world will continue to serve as an important anchor for the secular valuation of all asset classes.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  176. EM in a rising USD world: vulnerabilities but no systemic risk

    Emerging markets will face a more challenging economic and financial outlook over the next few years - but systemic risk across the emerging world is lower than before the Asian crisis.

    Jeremy Lawson, Standard Life Investments | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  177. The US stands out in a low growth world

    De-leveraging, widening inequality and structural reforms limit growth in developed markets. The US is the most advanced in addressing these challenges.

    Ronald Temple | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  178. Bond markets lock up and lock out returns

    Bond markets were once the world's most liquid. Today, trading even $5 million in bonds can be difficult. Managed fund holders must recognize that funds may limit withdrawals and hold larger cash balances.

    Scott Weiner, Payden & Rygel | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  179. Greece - a case study for Eurozone strain

    2015 will be a year of huge uncertainty about the future of the Euro. These uncertainties are likely to pose a fundamental challenge to investing in the Eurozone.

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  180. Emerging Markets: Cyclically challenged, structurally adjusting, secularly promising

    Differentiation is key for emerging markets. Secularly, countries enjoying the rise of consumerism are expected to drive local company earnings above the global norm.

    Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  181. Signals

    Economic signals are everywhere. By being alert to signals, anyone can start to navigate through the turbulence of the world economy.

    Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  182. Cyclical? Structural? Secular?

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Markets Summit 2015 Moderator, Graham Rich, opened Markets Summit 2015 in his usual entertaining way, highlighting key issues to consider over the jam-packed, marathon program.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-02-15 | More
  183. A macro view of India

    Focus on structural reform and potential room for monetary easing provides a positive backdrop for India in the current global context.

    BlackRock | 10-02-15 | More
  184. EM: adjusting, secularly promising

    EM equities and fixed income enjoyed a boom in the 2000s. Now after several years of relative underperformance, EMs appear to be on the cusp of stronger growth.

    Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | 10-02-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  185. Secondary market for corporate bond markets liquidity in 2014

    The US secondary corporate bond market is in a time of significant upheaval. Changes to regulations has caused a new, insidious liquidity risk.

    Scott Weiner, Payden & Rygel | 10-02-15 | 2.00 CE | More
  186. The risk of a US recession in 2016

    The most important issue for investors is the risk of a US recession in 2016. It would play out to a global recession. There are cyclical, structural and secular forces at work.

    Chris Watling | 10-02-15 | More
  187. Not another Emerging Market crisis

    After a run of historically rapid improvement in living standards in the first decade of the millennium, emerging markets will face a more challenging outlook - not a crisis - over the next few years.

    Jeremy Lawson & Nicolas Jaquier, Standard Life Investments | 10-02-15 | 2.00 CE | More
  188. Strategic Spotlight - Ten for ‘15

    As the US potentially enters its sixth year of expansion, we are optimistic its economy can continue on a steady trajectory throughout 2015. Elsewhere in the world, the outlook is murkier.

    Investment Strategy Group, Neuberger Berman | 10-02-15 | More
  189. Think yes Japan, not ex Japan

    Japan has become a nation to which many investors are largely indifferent. But individual Japanese stocks offer some of the most compelling asymmetric risk/return profiles within the equity landscape.

    John Hock, Altrinsic Global Advisors | 10-02-15 | More
  190. Evaluating the changing US labor market

    At first glance, it appears that the US job market has healed. Unfortunately, it is not that simple. The US still has substantial excess labor supply.

    Ronald Temple | 10-02-15 | More
  191. Beyond beta

    An emphasis on tactical asset allocation, careful bottom-up security selection and prudent relative value decisions are going to be critical in 2015.

    Mihir Worah, PIMCO | 10-02-15 | More
  192. The global upward trend in the profit share

    A puzzle challenging economists and policymakers is the persistent increase in company profits as a share of GDP in recent decades. Is it an enduring phenomenon driven by an underlying secular trend?

    Kate Howitt | 09-02-15 | More
  193. Backgrounder: Cyclical? Structural? Secular?

    This Backgrounder defines the terms "cyclical", "structural"" and "secular" and provides examples, in order to increase the clarity of debate about what's really driving markets.

    PortfolioConstruction Forum | 09-02-15 | More
  194. All things considered - outlook for 2015

    2015 has got off to an eventful start - we've seen dramatic changes only five weeks into the year. Here's where I see markets going in 2015. A couple of things really stand out.

    Jonathan Pain | 09-02-15 | More
  195. Academy Summer Seminar 2015 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Summer Seminar 2015 featured four sessions. This Resources Kit contains the materials for preparing for the Seminar, as well as the presentation slides.

    05-02-15 | 48 comments | More
  196. An unconventional truth

    Who would have thought that six years after the GFC, most advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup?

    Nouriel Roubini | 02-02-15 | More
  197. The great unwinding

    The world economy today is defined by the unwinding, the reversal of several very long-term economic trends - and they have economic and investment implications.

    Robert Baur, Principal Global Advisors | 29-01-15 | More
  198. A primer on geopolitics and investing

    Does geopolitics have investment implications? In short - yes - and this paper provides a clear understanding of both geopolitics and its clear link to investment markets.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 28-01-15 | 1.25 CE | More
  199. Land of the (re)rising Sun

    Japan has a history of changing dramatically, often when least expected. As Abe's economic policies and structural reforms spark growth, Japan is well-positioned to reemerge as a global investment force.

    Tim Griffen, Lazard Asset Management | 27-01-15 | More
  200. The alleged missing link - wage inflation

    The consensus of FOMC participants expects core inflation to revert toward the 2% target over the next two years. I think they will be wrong.

    Robert Gay | 26-01-15 | More
  201. Australia, the next shoe to drop

    Australia still looks like one of the holdout anomalies in global markets where the adjustment from a decade of mispriced assets has yet to fully play out.

    Will Denyer et al, GaveKal | 23-01-15 | More
  202. The Swiss release the Kraken

    In an era when central bankers are supposed to be more open, collaborative, and communicative, why did the SNB decide to turn on a dime and shock the markets?

    John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics | 20-01-15 | More
  203. Deja vu de-leveraging

    As long as policymakers can stay on course and avoid the policy mistakes of the late 1990s, the oil price collapse could prove more therapeutic than destructive.

    Robert Gay | 19-01-15 | More