Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 30 January 2026

“[President Trump] inherited a mature constitutional democracy with functioning institutions, independent courts and established norms and he is breaking them. He is not the engine of a new order. He is sand in the gears of the old one.” - Dr Oliver Hartwich, Portfolio Construction Forum 2025/26 Visiting Fellow (Wellington) and Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative (27 January 2026)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Markets Summit 2026 Early Bird registration ends Wednesday 04 February!

Markets

Markets Summit 2026 “It’s a whole new world (again)!”
AEDT Wednesday 25 February 2026 | 7+ CE/CPD hrs | A$295+GST (Practitioner)
Join us at our Live Studio, Live Site, or via Live Stream | Register now!
In each of the past three centuries, hugely disruptive technologies have redefined the world – mechanisation in the 18th century; electrification in the 19th; flight and digitisation in the 20th. And now, just five years after Covid disrupted and reshaped the world like no other crisis since World War II, AI has kickstarted a fourth industrial revolution that will fundamentally change the way we work and live once more.
Simultaneously, US President Trump is rapidly dismantling long-held US policy norms, reshaping the government, judiciary, military and media while weaponising national economic policy – heralding in a whole new world of economic statecraft.
Economic statecraft and the race for supremacy in AI and control of rare earths is adding further fuel to US-China rivalry and titanic geopolitical struggle which is playing out in multiple domains, challenging US dollar hegemony and reshaping international relations as other countries respond and reposition – heralding in a whole new world of global economic and security policy, reshaping the global geopolitical, economic and trade order.
Opportunities abound for those able to identify the powerful cyclical, secular and structural changes afoot that are reshaping economies and markets, and reorientate investment portfolios accordingly. In short, immense societal and economic upheaval is once again upending the outlook for investment markets. It’s a whole new world (again)!
Markets Summit 2026 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets and help you build better quality investor portfolios.

Markets

Trump wants a “Hot Hot Hot” economy
Despite the US economy’s strong performance in 2025 which is likely to continue in 2026, it is hard to escape the conclusion that, over the medium term, Trump’s decisions over the past year will expose the US to massive risks.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | See Oliver live at Markets Summit 2026 (25 Feb)

Investors must adapt to a more tribal, less rational world
The global rules-based order is cracking, resulting in an increasingly complex and uncertain macro backdrop. Practitioners will need to consider information from a broader array of specialists to understand the drivers of and outlook for markets.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | See Ron live at Markets Summit 2026 (25 Feb)

Geopolitics must be part and parcel of investing
Investors will look back on 2025 as the beginning of the end of US exceptionalism. Practitioners must now consider geopolitics in their fundamental analysis, alongside macroeconomic and company factors.
Ronald Temple, Lazard | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing

From Strategies Summit 2025 to Markets Summit 2026
Strategies Summit 2025 last August delivered practitioners a clear call to action - it was “Time to Make a Move” away from stretched US valuations toward international and emerging markets in portfolios. We look at how that’s panned out, and start to prep for Markets Summit 2026 “It’s a whole new world (again)!”.
Jonathan Ramsay, InvestSense | Watch, Listen, Read

Strategies | Investing | Finology | Philosophy | See James live at Markets Summit 2026 (25 Feb)

Rich Pickings: James McAlevey
Rich Pickings explores the investment beliefs and philosophies of prominent professional investors. In this episode, I’m in conversation with London-based, absolute return fixed income investor, James McAlevey, BNP Paribas Asset Management…
Graham Rich, Portfolio Construction Forum | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets

Mind the gap(s) between market perception and investing reality
“What I found most valuable in this piece is the discipline it reinforces around separating perception risk from portfolio risk…”
Nick Schoenmaker | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently About Markets
Embracing complexity economics to better understand how markets really work
The Thinking Differently About Markets subscription service enables a deeper and more realistic understanding of economic and financial dynamics, empowering greater clarity and agility in portfolio construction.
Subscribe and join a Community of Practice that recognises that the traditional tools and theories of economic orthodoxy are not sufficient, and embraces complexity economics - in which the economy is more akin to an ecosystem, the brain, or the internet than to the mechanistic models of traditional theory.
Thinking Differently About Markets will help you create robust portfolios by deepening your understanding of how economies and markets really work. Find out more!

Strategies

Portfolio Compass
An efficient, effective tool to better connect portfolios to client objectives
Portfolio Compass enables you to easily and confidently identify robust asset allocations that can deliver on required investment objectives. Developed in association with Evergreen Consultants, you can rapidly analyse the risk and return characteristics of a portfolio’s existing asset allocation and analyse options to adjust it, create and monitor customised asset allocations for individual clients, and set practice-wide asset allocations based on your firm’s investment philosophy and client risk profiles. The highly visual interface enhances transparency and clarity of communication with clients about their portfolios.
Portfolio Compass will deepen your understanding and control of the most important part of the investment process – the asset allocation of a portfolio. Find out more!

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Philosophy

Short Course: Mastering private debt investing
Examining the unique characteristics that make private debt a compelling investment.
Private debt has grown in popularity as an alternative source of debt financing, with the asset class tripling in size since 2008. Curated and produced by Portfolio Construction Forum, and led by private debt investing subject matter expert, Andrew Lockhart, this self-paced, two-hour online short course equips you with the expertise to navigate private debt investment confidently across diverse market conditions.
Metrics & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | * Premium *

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE (incl 1.00 ethics) | Enrol

Markets

The world order after 2025
The future that emerges after 2025 depends crucially on the worldview we choose. Lamenting the polycrisis reinforces paralysis; embracing the polytunity encourages change.
Yuen Yuen Ang, Johns Hopkins University | Read

Markets

Global developments to watch over the next five years to 2031
2025 will likely go down in history as one of the most eventful, action-packed years of the 21st century. Here are 20 possibilities that should help you navigate uncertainty between now and 2031.
Vikram Mansharamani | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Summit 2025

It’s time for a 50% allocation to private markets
A new approach to asset allocation is needed to create long-term wealth for clients, focusing on risk-adjusted returns with up to 50% of portfolios allocated to private markets asset classes.
Brendan McCurdy, Ares Management Corporation | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology | Philosophy

The Inquisitor: We need ethics muscle memory - Mary Gentile
Rather than treating ethical decision-making as a cognitive issue, investment professionals should develop “ethics muscle memory”, increasing the chances of successfully navigating moral predicaments in the moment.
Robert Huebscher, Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.75 CE (Ethics) | Watch, Listen

Finology | Philosophy

Research Review: Attributing ethical responsibility
Together, these two articles shed light on important micro and macro challenges facing the growth of ethical responsibility in investment and wealth management.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE (Ethics) | Read

Strategies | Finology | Philosophy

The Fiduciary Gap
Thanks Graham, a good article… I agree that “True fiduciary duty is not just compliance. It is the continual exercise of independent judgement in the client’s best interest.”
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

Markets

Crockpot: American exceptionalism means we don’t have to worry
Brilliant article, Tim. Sadly, all those American stay-at-home punters don’t realise that their social media feeds are simply reinforcing their ignorance…
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | Read

Markets

The outlook for the US economy in 2026
This has been a bumpy year for the US economy. The big question now is what 2026 will bring. Even if important downside risks remain, one can be cautiously optimistic heading into the new year.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Philosophy

3Whats: Crisis of Faith
As 2025 draws to a close, markets are experiencing what is best described as a “crisis of faith”. What this means for investors will depend on the actions already taken so far this year. Those who did nothing are now stuck between a rock and a very hard place.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | Read

Strategies | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Summit 2025

Unlock broader insights to alternative assets
Incorporating alternative assets into multi-asset funds through a Total Portfolio Approach can provide a more informed understanding of risk and return across the whole portfolio.
Deanne Baker, Evidentia Group | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology | Philosophy

Research Review: Moral repetition effect
This paper looks at the impact of repetition on our perceptions of unethicality and truth. It finds that the more times we hear about a wrongdoing, the more we may believe it - but the less we may care.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2025 | Editor’s Pick

Mind the gap(s) between market perception and investing reality
Revisit JP’s top rated presentation from February’s Markets Summit 2025, about what he saw ahead for the year…
As we progress through the Trumpification of markets, the political and information prism through which we view the world will help us mind the gap(s) between market perception and investing reality.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

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