1. Research Review: More on Behavioural Issues

    Three recent research papers continue to grow our understanding of how behavioural traits impact on markets. The first provides insights into Warren Buffett's success; the other two examine the markets' response to earnings information.

    Ron Bird | 15-12-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  2. Financial investors' wish list for 2018

    However tempting it may be to focus our wishes on our own immediate desires, it is imperative this year that investors' wish lists take into account the big economic and policy picture.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 14-12-17 | More
  3. Bitcoin: we warned you

    The investment (as opposed to transaction) appeal of Bitcoins has grown and will grow. But we believe that Bitcoin will be very undesirable as an asset due to a very high degree of price volatility.

    Woody Brock | 13-12-17 | More
  4. Populist plutocracy and the future of America

    You know it's time to worry when the conservative Republican chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations warns openly that Trump could start World War III.

    Nouriel Roubini | 11-12-17 | More
  5. The globalisation of our discontent

    As some countries have shown, a market economy can take forms that temper the excesses of capitalism and globalisation, and deliver more sustainable growth and higher standards of living for most citizens.

    Joseph Stiglitz | 06-12-17 | More
  6. Maybe retirees should spend the kids' 'inheritance'

    Plenty of anecdotes suggest that baby boomers are spending their savings and will leave nothing for the next generation. Looking at the actual data, this is questionable.

    Aaron Minney | 05-12-17 | More
  7. Regime Change: Inflation

    The world has changed dramatically over the past three decades, but the analytical tools underpinning monetary policy haven't. The challenge is to develop new tools to fit the new world order.

    Robert Gay | 04-12-17 | More
  8. Back to long-term investing in the age of geopolitical risk

    In the last decade, investor interest in long-horizon outcomes was rare and when it prevailed, it was severely tested by events. The long-term was viewed as opaque and uncertain. It's amazing how attitudes change when new opportunities emerge.

    Amin Rajan | 01-12-17 | More
  9. Today's Rational Exuberance

    It is tempting to ask whether markets have entered a period of "irrational exuberance" and are heading for a fall. The answer is probably no.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 28-11-17 | More
  10. Lies, damned lies and company taxes

    "If it is earned here, it should be taxed here" is the title of the ad about laws on multinationals transferring profits offshore. What is interesting is the closing claim in the ad.

    Tim Farrelly | 27-11-17 | More
  11. The abnormality of oil

    There is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price of oil as high as $80 in the coming year.

    Jim O'Neill | 21-11-17 | More
  12. Research Review: Personal values and professionalism

    What influence do personal values have on our behaviour, as individuals? And how do those values interact with professional standards and ethics?

    Will Jackson | 17-11-17 | 1.50 CE | More
  13. The curious case of the missing defaults

    For the past two centuries, a "double bust" (in commodities and capital flows) has led to a spike in sovereign defaults. Yet they have risen only modestly since the peak in commodity prices and global capital flows around 2011.

    Carmen Reinhart | 15-11-17 | More
  14. Phillips Curve confusion

    During the past three months, a salient topic of debate has been whether the so-called Phillips Curve is relevant in today's disinflationary environment. The debate is important to investors.

    Woody Brock | 14-11-17 | More
  15. The optimal shape of retirement planning

    A recent research paper that likens the three main retirement planning approaches to shapes provides an interesting way to think about three different retirement planning approaches. In the end, the best option may incorporate all three.

    Michael Kitces | 10-11-17 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  16. The moral identity of Homo Economicus

    Two recent books indicate that a quiet revolution is challenging the foundations of economics, promising radical changes in how we view many aspects of organisations, public policy, and even social life.

    Ricardo Hausmann | 09-11-17 | 1 comment | More
  17. Research Review: More on portfolio construction

    A recent paper that addresses one of the most pressing issues facing the financial community - how to construct long-term investment portfolios to best fit the needs of those saving for retirement - questions the appropriateness of many commonly used techniques.

    Ron Bird | 06-11-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  18. Donald Trump's Federal Reserve

    With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 03-11-17 | More
  19. Financial planners and fund researchers doing a superb job

    The 2017 mid-year SPIVA report on fund manager performance came out recently. And, while we can expect to see the media dwell on the negatives, there are some big positives in the data.

    Tim Farrelly | 02-11-17 | 3 comments | More
  20. Philosophy Lecture: Value investing

    Value investing has proven successful over time but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?

    Philipp Hofflin | 01-11-17 | 4.00 CE | More
  21. Understanding the rate and direction of retirement spending

    Having built some satisfaction that their retirement savings balance is sufficient, clients ask "How much can I afford to spend?"

    Aaron Minney | 30-10-17 | More
  22. Modernity with Chinese characteristics

    Since President Xi Jinping's update at the National Congress of the CCP this month, commentators have furiously debated the theme of "China rising" and Xi's concentration of power in his own hands. They are missing the point.

    Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng | 25-10-17 | 1 comment | More
  23. China's contradictions

    President Xi Jinping's political report, delivered on the opening day of China's latest Communist Party congress, was a high-impact event. Three conclusions from Xi's address are particularly important.

    Stephen Roach | 23-10-17 | More
  24. Another Nobel Surprise for Economics

    The winner of this year's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago, is a controversial choice. For some in the profession, the idea that psychological research should even be part of economics has generated hostility for years.

    Robert J. Shiller | 16-10-17 | More
  25. Research Review: Old chestnuts

    Portfolio insurance - invented over 40 years ago - has experienced the renaissance that it very much deserves. Trend (momentum) investing dates back over 40 years, too - the success of which is traced back in this paper to over 100 years.

    Ron Bird | 10-10-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  26. A perfect storm... in a teacup

    Despite all the talk, the fact that Australian banks loan books are heavily concentrated in low risk residential mortgages should be a source of comfort, not fear.

    Tim Farrelly | 06-10-17 | More
  27. The courage to normalise monetary policy

    The Fed will not achieve balance-sheet normalisation until 2022-2023 at earliest. With more than $6tn of excess liquidity still sloshing around global financial markets, that's asking for trouble.

    Stephen Roach | 03-10-17 | More
  28. Research Review: Red is bad, green is good

    Two recent studies provide evidence that issues unrelated to the fundamental operation of a firm impact their market valuation.

    Ron Bird | 21-09-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  29. Is the Fed behind the curve?

    Many observers conclude that the Fed is behind the curve because a central bank supposedly should not persist with a negative real policy rate at full employment. That is correct - but the question remains "how much?"

    Robert Gay | 20-09-17 | More
  30. The mystery of the missing inflation

    Since mid 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion - yet inflation has not picked up. Why?

    Nouriel Roubini | 19-09-17 | More
  31. Research Roundtable - Resources Kit

    Research Roundtable helps identify quality investment solutions and their place in portfolios. This Resources Kit enables participants from the various Research Roundtable meetings to access the Strategy Reports that result from each meeting.

    19-09-17 | More
  32. The ASX200 is too concentrated - reduce weights!

    Simply observing the concentration inherent in the index and reducing Australian Equity weights is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.

    Tim Farrelly | 18-09-17 | More
  33. The trend that is ruining finance research

    The "anomalies" literature is the scientific foundation for quantitative asset management. But as three recent papers point out, "p-hacking" is only the beginning of anomalies research problems.

    Michael Edesess | 07-09-17 | 2 comments | More
  34. America and China's codependency trap

    US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.

    Stephen Roach | 05-09-17 | More
  35. The truth about the IT Revolution

    Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.

    Woody Brock | 04-09-17 | 1 comment | More
  36. Magellan's "monster" listed trust - masterstroke or misfire?

    Magellan is innovating again, this time raising money for what's been called a "monster" closed-end listed investment trust (LIT) with features that dramatically raise the bar for the standard model of closed end listed investment vehicles.

    Dominic McCormick | 01-09-17 | 2 comments | More
  37. The persistence of global imbalances

    The US has run chronic current-account deficits for almost two generations. Pointing the finger at surplus countries is getting old.

    Carmen Reinhart | 31-08-17 | More
  38. Beating the world’s best investors

    Where can practitioners take on the world’s best investors and win? Actually, in quite a lot of places.

    Tim Farrelly | 28-08-17 | More
  39. Backgrounder: Portfolio rebalancing strategies

    Researchers propose a range of improvements to traditional time-based rebalancing, including threshold and cash flow strategies, designed to increase effectiveness and efficiency.

    Will Jackson | 21-08-17 | 1 comment | More
  40. Backgrounder: The rise of impact investing

    As some institutional investors build internal impact investing capabilities, the inclusion of impact investments in portfolios may be on the cusp of becoming mainstream.

    Will Jackson | 21-08-17 | More
  41. Backgrounder: Culture and investment performance

    The relationship between organisational culture and relative performance has significant implications for active asset managers, given their dependence on effective collaboration and decision making.

    Will Jackson | 21-08-17 | More
  42. It all adds up... well, sometimes it doesn't

    Do you know the impacts of the risk characteristics of your multi-manager portfolio? Better portfolio construction occurs when you don't diversify the risk you are trying to capture. Beware the benchmark hugger - it might be you?

    Michael Furey | 19-08-17 | More
  43. Shifting global trade patterns bring new opportunities

    Shifts in economic and trade regimes and turning points in markets provide asset managers the opportunity to capitalise on short-term distortions in asset prices and to invest in companies that could be winners in the long term.

    Rob Lovelace & David Polak, Capital Group | 18-08-17 | More
  44. Using alternative investments to address pre- and post-retirement issues

    This paper explores the issues and challenges associated with longevity and sequencing risk, especially in the current market environment, and examines how alternative investments offer investors potential solutions for these risks.

    Walter Davis & Ashley O'Connor, Invesco | 18-08-17 | More
  45. The value of investing in a diversified pool of fat left tailed strategies

    Investors often shy from investing in “non-traditional” sources of Risk Premia, but to maximise the probability of achieving positive excess returns, a well-diversified and risk-controlled mix of Risk Premium strategies is essential.

    Capital Fund Management | 18-08-17 | More
  46. E + S + G factors are fundamental to better portfolio outcomes

    Ensuring your investment process incorporates sustainability factors - climate change, global food shortages, water shortages, and poverty, as well as safety, management and governance scandals - adds up to better outcomes.

    Amanda McCluskey | 18-08-17 | More
  47. Challenging assumptions

    Two assumptions are under challenge - that the past offers a reliable guide to the future in terms of asset class returns; and, that traditional relative risk/return approaches can still deliver the returns investors need.

    Warryn Robertson | 18-08-17 | More
  48. Creativity and predictability are key for alpha generation

    The outcome of selecting an active management strategy will likely be greater when both the creativity and predictability of the candidate are considered in equal measure.

    William Low | 18-08-17 | More
  49. Research Review: Financial ruin and biological age

    Two recent studies shed light on retirement income planning. One proposes a framework to avoid the pitfalls of shortfall probabilities. The other finds biological age impacts spending rates.

    Will Jackson | 15-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  50. Culture and sustainable alpha generation - six key factors

    Culture is at the heart of competitive advantage today; this is particularly the case for investment firms where people and their judgments are the chief assets. A strong culture in investment management firms is a requirement for sustainable alpha-generation.

    Carol Geremia | 14-08-17 | More
  51. The four stages of investment analysis

    Using a Stage 4 investment analysis framework is a strong move towards a deeper understanding of portfolio risk drivers, and ensuring portfolios better reflect your investment philosophy.

    Michael Furey | 11-08-17 | 2 comments | More
  52. A sector that cannot be ignored

    Having grown strongly over the last 20 years, a new study shows infrastructure investment will continue over the next two decades. It is a secular trend with long-term opportunities.

    RARE Infrastructure | 11-08-17 | More
  53. Rampant confusion - monetary policy, yield curve, bond yields

    The growing belief that the US has entered an era of permanently low economic growth, due in large measure to an alleged 50% reduction in productivity growth, is wrong. Both real growth and productivity growth have been strong, not weak.

    Woody Brock | 10-08-17 | More
  54. Active v Passive – why can't we be friends?

    When it comes to the active versus passive investment debate, many investors believe the answer is black or white. But the issue is deeper than that.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 09-08-17 | More
  55. Choosing discount rates for retirement planning strategies

    While the use of a discount rate to compare strategies or choices that are dispersed or occur over time is useful, the proper discount rate is the investor's expected rate of return, means that the "right" discount rate will vary from one person to the next.

    Michael Kitces | 08-08-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  56. A dim outlook for Trumponomics

    After six months, we can more confidently assess the prospects for the US economy under Trump's administration. Like his presidency, paradoxes abound.

    Nouriel Roubini | 07-08-17 | More
  57. The quandary on inflation

    Recently, Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed dismay that inflation has remained persistently below the Fed's target of 2%. Will low inflation derail the Fed's exit strategy?

    Robert Gay | 27-07-17 | More
  58. Deciphering China's economic resilience

    Forecasters find it difficult to resist superimposing the outcomes in major crisis-battered developed economies on China. It has been the wrong approach in the past; it is wrong again today.

    Stephen Roach | 26-07-17 | 2 comments | More
  59. ASIC on hybrids

    The head of ASIC says that hybrids are a ridiculous investment for retail investors. Are they? Yes and no.

    Tim Farrelly | 25-07-17 | 5 comments | More
  60. Research review: Anomalies and irrationality

    Two new studies provide widespread evidence of mispricings/irrationalities across world equity markets. One in particular provides valuable insight into managing risk in equity investing.

    Ron Bird | 24-07-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  61. A Guide to forming an Investment Policy Framework

    This Guide aims to assist practitioners develop their investment policy framework, by providing a checklist of issues to consider, and publicly available examples from institutions in Australia and globally.

    Andrew Fairweather & Jerome Lander | 21-07-17 | More
  62. A "Macroneconomic" Revolution?

    Next month will mark the tenth anniversary of the GFC. Why have so few of the policies that might have ameliorated economic conditions and alleviated public resentment been implemented since?

    Anatole Kaletsky | 19-07-17 | More
  63. The G20's misguided globalism

    This year's G20 summit in Hamburg promises to be among the more interesting in recent years. The knee-jerk globalism that suffuses G20 meetings feeds into the populists' narrative.

    Dani Rodrik, Harvard University | 06-07-17 | 1 comment | More
  64. What do we know about investor irrationality?

    It's become conventional wisdom that under-performance is due to the irrational investment behavior of individuals. It's time to question whether conventional wisdom has even a scintilla of meaning.

    Michael Edesess | 04-07-17 | More
  65. Policy rules versus discretion

    Discretion in setting monetary policy has had a checkered history. Ironically, the debate on rules vs discretion is heating up just as the FOMC sets a course for unwinding its extraordinary policy measures.

    Robert Gay | 03-07-17 | More
  66. Buying happiness and satisfaction with greater cash reserves

    The classic view of cash when investing is that it's something to minimise. But a recent study found that we're just not content without a healthy allocation to cash. In fact, pushing investors to put all their cash to work increases their financial stress.

    Michael Kitces | 29-06-17 | More
  67. Another lesson from Japan

    We ignore history at great peril. The latest disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks is really not a surprise after all.

    Stephen Roach | 28-06-17 | More
  68. Politics and stock returns

    Analysis of 5 international stock markets shows no correlation between stock returns and the political party in power.

    Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates | 27-06-17 | More
  69. Interest rates are artificially low?

    Yes, rates are unusually low. But to describe that as unnatural shows a lack of understanding about how the world works and a refusal to accept that maybe the world has changed.

    Tim Farrelly | 26-06-17 | 11 comments | More
  70. Capping QE

    Fed officials must take the long view and hence tend to believe they can engineer a graceful exit. Their plan is somewhat akin to 'cap and trade' schemes for weaning the world of pollutants.

    Robert Gay | 09-06-17 | More
  71. Daring to be different - the benefits of contrarian investing

    Literature from a variety of disciplines help highlight the qualities behind truly creative, contrarian thinking - qualities which can be applied to modern portfolio management.

    Stephen Anness & Andy Hall | 07-06-17 | More
  72. Research review: Quality and momentum investing

    Unlike other commonly used factors, very little research has been undertaken on the quality factor - which makes a newly released paper very interesting. Another new paper extends the usual momentum factor into "returns signal momentum".

    Ron Bird | 05-06-17 | 1.00 CE | More
  73. The global recovery's downside risks

    In the next year, a more robust and persistent global recovery will depend largely on whether policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.

    Nouriel Roubini | 05-06-17 | More
  74. Siegel v Shiller on equity valuations

    Wharton's Jeremy Siegel and Yale's Robert Shiller squared off in a recent presentation about the outlook for equity returns.

    Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | 31-05-17 | More
  75. The upside of less downside

    When equity markets fall, the financial and emotional impacts can be lasting. By focusing on reducing downside, investors can have a smoother ride and still achieve the returns they seek.

    Roy Maslen & Hamish Fitzsimons, AB Global | 30-05-17 | More
  76. The Hunger Bonds

    Investing often creates moral dilemmas over goals. Should decent people put their money in emerging-market bond funds?

    Ricardo Hausmann | 29-05-17 | More
  77. What ratings agencies are really good at

    After the ratings failures of CDOs and other complex instruments in the GFC, many dismiss the work of the ratings agencies. But far from being hopeless, they do a wonderful job of assessing companies.

    Tim Farrelly | 26-05-17 | 1 comment | More
  78. Rethinking the Next China

    China is upping the ante on its connection to an increasingly integrated world, running against the grain of the populist anti-globalisation backlash that is brewing in many developed countries.

    Stephen Roach | 25-05-17 | More
  79. The worry about indexing is overblown

    The number of indexes has exploded and now exceeds the number of stocks in the US. But overall, the US stock market is still dominated by active management. And 96% of index products are of insignificant size.

    Urban Carmel, The Fat Pitch | 24-05-17 | More
  80. The dramatic decline of risk - part 3 - Financial market risks

    Overall stock market risk has declined modestly in the last 80 years, but the nature of risk has changed greatly. The risk stemming from market mistakes and, possibly, from irrationality has risen significantly.

    Woody Brock | 22-05-17 | More
  81. The dramatic decline of risk - part 2 - geopolitical risk

    Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.

    Woody Brock | 17-05-17 | More
  82. Whistling past the geopolitical graveyard

    Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.

    Nouriel Roubini | 15-05-17 | More
  83. Research Review: Factor investing

    Factor investing has its foundation in the empirical studies of EMH. Via ETFs, we now live in a world where the possibility of factor investing is available to almost everyone. Three recent papers are useful in exploring further.

    Ron Bird | 15-05-17 | More
  84. The dramatic decline of risk - part 1

    In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.

    Woody Brock | 04-05-17 | More
  85. Impact investing in the context of a diversified portfolio

    This paper presents evidence to suggest that an allocation to impact investments can contribute potential portfolio benefits from the risk-return profile and low correlation with other asset classes.

    Tim Macready, CIMA® & Simba Marekera, Brightlight Impact Advisory | 03-05-17 | 0.50 CE | More
  86. Fed tightening past and present

    In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for too long. The current tightening cycle will not end any differently.

    Lacy Hunt & Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment Management | 02-05-17 | More
  87. A world turned inside out

    The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by 2018, the developing countries will have a greater share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries (41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.

    Stephen Roach | 01-05-17 | More
  88. Bonds are different - active v passive

    Opinions in the active-passive investment debate have drifted poles apart over recent years. This paper revisits this discussion finding that, unlike their stock counterparts, active bond mutual funds have largely outperformed their median passive peers over the sample period.

    Jamil Baz et al, PIMCO | 27-04-17 | More
  89. Macron’s mission

    The centrist Emmanuel Macron's success in the first round of the French presidential election is likely to re-energise Europe.

    Harold James, Princeton University  | 26-04-17 | More
  90. Decoding the latest Fed speak

    The Fed's talk of a symmetrical inflation goal played well to markets when they were in the throes of the reflation trade. Markets are now flipping to the conclusion that transparency amounts to dovish policy.

    Robert Gay | 20-04-17 | More
  91. Welcome to Trump Casino

    The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?

    Tim Farrelly | 11-04-17 | 11 comments | More
  92. Crouching Donald, Paper Tiger

    Trump is learning that he is hemmed in by the same constraints as Obama's administration. As with Obama, the agent of change is turning out to be an agent of continuity.

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 10-04-17 | More
  93. Research Review: Only in Scandinavia?

    Do professional investors do better when investing on their own behalf? What is the relationship between the remuneration of professional investors and performance? What role to gender and age play in the use of ETFs?

    Ron Bird | 10-04-17 | More
  94. Brexit wheels start to turn

    On Wednesday, Theresa May triggered the mechanism for UK to leave the EU. But the UK's relationship with the EU has already changed, says UK MP Peter Lilley.

    Nathan Smith, National Business Review | 31-03-17 | More
  95. The Forum & UTS launch IMR Program

    PortfolioConstruction Forum has partnered with University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Business School, to support the newly formed Investment Management Research Program (the IMR Program), a research initiative in the areas of capital market operations, financial institutions/intermediaries and institutional investors.

    30-03-17 | More
  96. First-home buyers should be able to use their super

    Home ownership is of critical importance for retirees. But compulsory superannuation plays a major role in ensuring low-income earners never gain access to home ownership.

    Ron Bird | 29-03-17 | 6 comments | More
  97. The temptations of a resilient China

    Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.

    Stephen Roach | 28-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  98. Behavioral biases & hierarchy of retirement needs

    Research suggests we mentally account for income and assets with an intrinsic hierarchy of priorities - a "hierarchy of retirement needs". So retirement income strategies should be reframed to answer three questions.

    Michael Kitces | 23-03-17 | More
  99. Ageing will reshape the global order

    Global ageing will have significant effects over the next few decades as it reduces the economic power and geopolitical influence of developed nations, in turn increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world.

    Will Jackson | 22-03-17 | More
  100. What's a president to do?

    Trump promised a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes - but has quickly discovered that the US political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change. So what will an impatient president do?

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 20-03-17 | More
  101. Negative gearing is responsible for high property prices?

    A more realistic view of the world is that price appreciation drives negative gearing - not the other way around. Abolish negative gearing and nothing much happens.

    Tim Farrelly | 10-03-17 | 11 comments | More
  102. Rethinking productivity growth

    In thinking about the future of growth, and the opportunities that continued growth will open up for all of humanity, we should reflect on how far we have come.

    J. Bradford DeLong | 06-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  103. Four fundamental portfolio construction decisions

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and delegates were asked to convert the insights into four fundamental portfolio construction decisions.

    Will Jackson | 06-03-17 | More
  104. The three Trumps

    What Donald Trump's rise to the US presidency portends requires unraveling three mysteries - because there are three versions of Trump.

    Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University | 02-03-17 | 1 comment | More
  105. Navigating normalisation

    History indicates a reasonably graceful exit from ultra-low interest rates is possible - and that investors can weather the storm with the right strategy. Let's sort out which risks are worth worrying about and which are not.

    Robert Gay | 01-03-17 | More
  106. 2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

    Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).

    01-03-17 | More
  107. 2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

    Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

    01-03-17 | More
  108. Low interest rates matter. So do imputation credits

    A recent, widely circulated article suggested the major Australian banks are overpriced. But including the effect of imputation and a view on interest rates makes a huge difference...

    Tim Farrelly | 27-02-17 | More
  109. Finology Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Finology Summit 2017 focused on how "The winds of change" are affecting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better to relate with them. Here are our key takeouts.

    23-02-17 | More
  110. Economic growth and equity market returns

    This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and equity market returns. Much of the literature has focused on the US so this analysis includes Australia and the UK, too.

    Michael Furey | 20-02-17 | 6 comments | More
  111. Why Trump can't bully China

    The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 13-02-17 | More
  112. Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction

    In 2002, we embarked on a quest to identify the secular forces which would substantially influence markets over the coming decade. We proposed five megatrends - which still drive portfolio construction today.

    Will Jackson | 13-02-17 | More
  113. Empathy is the essential skill to survive the Robo threat

    With the onward marching of computing power, our transition from being "knowledge workers" to "relationship workers" may be here sooner than we realise.

    Michael Kitces | 10-02-17 | 2 comments | More
  114. The 4th industrial revolution

    We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In the end, it all comes down to people and values.

    Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum | 10-02-17 | More
  115. 2017 key themes and risks

    The biggest event for global financial markets in 2017 is likely to have taken place on 20 January. How the Trump Presidency unfolds will clearly have a significant impact not just on the US but on global markets in 2017 and beyond.

    Stephen Halmarick et al, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 10-02-17 | More
  116. 2017 Global Outlook

    The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.

    Ronald Temple | 10-02-17 | More
  117. Loss aversion, "FoMo", anxiety and mistiming

    Four common behavioural problems make the journey of investing particularly challenging for many investors. An understanding of each help investors stay the course and meet their goals.

    Douglas Isles | 10-02-17 | More
  118. Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts

    Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA? Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.

    Will Jackson | 02-02-17 | 2 comments | More
  119. Tighter monetary conditions

    The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.

    Robert Gay | 01-02-17 | More
  120. An unstable economic order?

    The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 31-01-17 | More
  121. A two-dimensional risk tolerance assessment process

    Beware using risk tolerance assessment tools that blend risk tolerance and risk capacity into a single result. The two need to be measured separately.

    Michael Kitces | 30-01-17 | 2 comments | More
  122. Watching the Donald show is fun, but...

    America is living through a kind of Trumpian Genesis - seven days of high-speed political creation. No one yet knows how all this will pan out.

    Niall Ferguson | 29-01-17 | More
  123. Does political analysis matter when investing?

    Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

    Jonathan Pain | 28-01-17 | More
  124. What are senior secured loans and why invest in them?

    Senior secured loans offer a combination of strong current income with relatively low volatility given their defensive position in the capital structure and short duration.

    Invesco | 25-01-17 | More
  125. Misjudge China and Donald will never make America great again

    Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.

    Niall Ferguson | 22-01-17 | More
  126. Here's a true Trump nightmare for the liberals

    No doubt the liberal media will wage unrelenting war on Trump, as they did on Nixon nearly half a century ago. But this is not the 1970s.

    Niall Ferguson | 15-01-17 | More
  127. Finding the optimal portfolio rebalancing frequency

    How often should a portfolio be rebalanced? Rather than the conventional wisdom of rebalancing at fixed time intervals, a superior methodology is tolerance band rebalancing.

    Michael Kitces | 02-01-17 | 0.50 CE | 5 comments | More
  128. The failure to understand rebalancing

    We've been drilled that rebalancing in portfolios results in improved returns and/or reduced risk. But the benefits of rebalancing are far smaller than we’ve been led to believe.

    Michael Edesess | 02-01-17 | 4 comments | More
  129. Re-balancing usually reduces returns

    While rebalancing may be helpful as a risk management strategy, it may actually reduce long-term returns. But that isn't a reason to avoid it.

    Michael Kitces | 02-01-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More