1. The life and times of Schnitzel von Krumm

    The Forum team recently said a sad goodbye to our beloved sausage dog, Schnitzel von Krumm. He was well known to those who attended our live programs or visited our office over the past decade. The team has put together this montage of a few memories...

    Hannah Molyneux, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 16-12-16 | 3 comments | More
  2. Is swapping volatility risk for longevity risk the right strategy?

    Given increasing longevity, it's important that retirees not ignore strategies that can generate long-term capital growth. In short, retirees need to re-examine the role of equities in their portfolio.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 16-12-16 | More
  3. Incentives approach for NZ's new PM

    Prime Minister English could differentiate his government by focusing on housing affordability to transform the lives of millions of New Zealanders.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 13-12-16 | 1 comment | More
  4. Bank hybrids are not equities...

    Another major licensee has reportedly fallen for the hybrid scare campaigns, insisting bank hybrids securities be treated as equities. The premise is hopelessly flawed.

    Tim Farrelly | 12-12-16 | 11 comments | More
  5. Niall Ferguson - a busy year for historians

    2016 was a bumper year for history. But actually, it's just history as normal, says historian Niall Ferguson. And neither the Trump election nor Brexit signals the end of globalisation.

    Nathan Smith, National Business Review | 12-12-16 | More
  6. The "real" IOOF "scandal" 18 mths on

    Mid this year, ASIC concluded its enquiry into allegations of wrongdoing and criminal behaviour at IOOF, related mainly to the research team and its then head. The real "scandal" turned out to be about reckless and biased elements of the media (and politicians).

    Dominic McCormick | 02-12-16 | More
  7. Bond market turmoil in a Trumpian economy

    Many worry that "the new normal" may be over, that the peak of the bond market has been reached, and so forth. We agree in part with this new view and offer some pointers to help navigate the bond market shoals ahead.

    Woody Brock | 01-12-16 | More
  8. Using age banding to estimate spending in retirement

    A growing body of research on the actual spending habits of retirees finds spending declines over time, implying retirees may not need to be saving as much to retire.

    Michael Kitces | 30-11-16 | More
  9. US will maintain a thoughtful distance amid disorder

    Growing US scepticism on international free-trade and defence agreements is rational in an unstable world, according to US geopolitical forecaster and author, George Friedman.

    Will Jackson | 28-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  10. Fleeing from Italy

    Following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK Brexit referendum and of Donald Trump in the US election, focus has shifted to the upcoming referendum in Italy. There is a disquieting real-time poll of investor sentiment.

    Carmen Reinhart | 25-11-16 | More
  11. Values and investing

    Does our character manifest itself in our investing decisions? This Resources Kit presents 10 key research papers, presentations and opinion pieces around what determines values, how values impact ethics and behaviour, and the relationship to trust.

    Curated by PortfolioConstruction Forum | 25-11-16 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  12. Trump rally - genuine growth or groupthink gamble?

    I wonder whether this post-Trump market rally and associated bullish economic and market narrative will come to be seen as one of the more prominent historical examples of poorly timed and lazy market groupthink.

    Dominic McCormick | 16-11-16 | 2 comments | More
  13. The new economic reality show

    Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

    Jonathan Pain | 11-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  14. Give Trump a chance

    According to most commentators, Trump's election signifies the end of the West, the international post-War framework, or the United States. I beg to differ.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 11-11-16 | More
  15. Which way for US-China relations?

    Trump must now choose between cooperation and confrontation as the framework for US policy toward China. His choice should be obvious.

    Minghao Zhao, Charhar Institute | 10-11-16 | More
  16. Why Trump could be good for markets

    Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit maximiser. This could be the most business and financial markets friendly regime in a long time.

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 10-11-16 | More
  17. Five ways Trump could move markets

    A Trump administration means a significant shift in Washington policy for at least the next four years. There are five key areas in which Trump's policy decisions could have an economic impact.

    Matt Miller, Capital Group | 10-11-16 | More
  18. US election - the investment implications

    Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal spending, and protecting entitlements at current levels. What are the investment implications?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 10-11-16 | More
  19. Big danger at the lower bound

    Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.

    Kenneth Rogoff | 03-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  20. Use Active Share to assess management fees

    Active Share can be an effective way to evaluate the appropriateness of a fund manager's fee. Low Active Share funds should come with index-fund-like fees.

    Michael Kitces | 01-11-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  21. BREXIT - 1453 all over again?

    Over the span of history, there are few years that can genuinely be considered as years on which the history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for the UK.

    Chris Watling | 31-10-16 | 1 comment | More
  22. Do the emperors wear clothes?

    The belief that innovative and extremely easy monetary policy on its own would restore a suitable level of economic growth and inflation was wrong, both in theory and in practice.

    Woody Brock | 28-10-16 | More
  23. Variable withdrawals improve retirement outcomes

    Variable withdrawal strategies for retirement spending are receiving more attention. Optimal asset allocations for such strategies are quite different to rules of thumb based on fixed withdrawal strategies.

    Joe Tomlinson, Tomlinson Financial Planning | 28-10-16 | More
  24. How much should we have in resource stocks?

    The Australian sharemarket’s high weight to resource stocks is an accident of history and geography. A lower than market cap weight to resource stocks in portfolios seems much more sensible.

    Tim Farrelly | 14-10-16 | More
  25. Wanted: A counter-populism strategy

    The IMF is right to warn that populism poses a serious threat to the global economy. What is really worrying is It is no longer only populists of Donald Trump's ilk who are delivering it. Mainstream politicians increasingly sound populist too.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 13-10-16 | 1 comment | More
  26. Understand "founder's mentality" to generate outperformance

    Only 1 in 10 listed companies globally achieved sustainable, profitable growth over the decade. A disproportionate number had a founder still running the firm or who remains on the Board.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 12-10-16 | More
  27. Using a "bond tent" to navigate the retirement danger zone

    Perhaps the best way to manage sequence of return risk in the years leading up to retirement and thereafter is simply to build up and then use a reserve of bonds to weather the storm.

    Michael Kitces | 07-10-16 | 2 comments | More
  28. Forecasting US recessions - what works and what doesn't

    Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.

    Chris Watling | 05-10-16 | More
  29. Geopolitics and the consequences of choice

    The gravest geopolitical challenge is not terrorism, or the Middle East, or Brexit, but a possible eruption between China and the US, the world's two largest economies and militaries. It is always when the most powerful countries clash that the world is altered fundamentally.

    Stephen Kotkin, Princeton University | 30-09-16 | More
  30. The power and limitations of Monte Carlo simulations

    Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

    David Blanchett, Morningstar & Wade Pfau, The American College | 28-09-16 | More
  31. Desperate central bankers

    The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

    Stephen Roach | 27-09-16 | 1 comment | More
  32. The return of fiscal policy

    Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

    Nouriel Roubini | 26-09-16 | More
  33. The banks at risk of an Aldi moment - sell!

    The latest reason offered as to why not to buy Australia's major banks is that their margins could be taken away by a well resourced disrupter. Should we not own the banks, as a result?

    Tim Farrelly | 16-09-16 | More
  34. The economic trend is our friend

    Economic growth since 2008 has been profoundly disappointing. But if we look at global economic growth over the next 30 to 60 years, the picture looks much brighter.

    J. Bradford DeLong | 08-09-16 | More
  35. Look for the signal amongst the noise

    Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an approach to cutting through fund performance "noise" to find the signal - the bigger picture investment view that enables us to construct better investment portfolios.

    Michael Furey | 06-09-16 | 1 comment | More
  36. Monetary reform - looking in the wrong places

    Zero, and especially negative, nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.

    Robert Gay | 05-09-16 | More
  37. The long and short of it - key takeouts

    Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

    Will Jackson | 01-09-16 | More
  38. 2016 Conference - Webcast

    Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

    30-08-16 | More
  39. The past is passive, the future is definitely active

    Passive investment has flourished since the GFC but we are entering a new environment where active management will thrive. The opportunity for practitioners to add value has gone up significantly.

    Charles Carroll, Lazard Asset Management | 24-08-16 | More
  40. Blinded by optimism

    Data overfitting is a well known problem and one would expect clever statisticians and scientists not to succumb to its temptations. But "meta-overfitting" may be endemic in finance.

    Mark Roulston & David Hand, Winton Capital Management | 22-08-16 | More
  41. Backgrounder: The long and short of it

    Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

    PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-08-16 | More
  42. Improving the asset allocation of SMSF portfolios

    SMSF portfolios appear inefficient – creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk for the existing return.

    David Wanis, Schroders | 19-08-16 | More
  43. Focus on change – the search for equity alpha

    Change is pervasive, whether at macro, sector or stock level. This argues for an approach that does not favour any particular investment style.

    Standard Life Investments | 19-08-16 | More
  44. Do you own enough global small caps?

    A satellite allocation to global small caps can increase portfolio efficiency over the long term.

    Lazard Asset Management | 19-08-16 | More
  45. Investment horizon is a key risk/return driver in infrastructure

    The listed infrastructure market provides investors with a broad, deep and liquid range of infrastructure investment opportunities.

    RARE Infrastructure | 19-08-16 | More
  46. Tracking error causes short-termism

    Tracking error constraints on active management focus on short-term outcomes and don't align with most investor goals, which are longer term. A low tracking error portfolio can often lead to an unfavourable outcome for end investors.

    Olivia Engel | 19-08-16 | More
  47. Lengthening the investment time horizon

    Investors are increasingly short term in their orientation. An arbitrage opportunity exists for managers with a longer investment horizon.

    MFS Investment Management | 19-08-16 | More
  48. Long term investing is a fool's paradise

    A range of cognitive biases leads investors to generally overestimate their skill. A long-term investment strategy simply compounds this problem. A long-short investment structure can improve outcomes.

    Tribeca Investment Partners | 19-08-16 | 1 comment | More
  49. Global equity income - it's timing not time in that counts

    Despite interest rates being at historic lows, there are thousands of dividend income opportunities amongst global companies that can provide income for a desirable retirement lifestyle.

    Plato Investment Management | 19-08-16 | More
  50. Infrastructure - reliable earnings irrespective of crises

    The infrastructure asset class, when defined in a disciplined manner, generates reliable earnings - and for the foreseeable future, earnings of infrastructure assets should continue to be reliable.

    Magellan Asset Management | 19-08-16 | More
  51. Not all Australian income funds are fit for purpose

    As the Australian bond market grows and sub-sectors emerge, investor must ask – is my defensive allocation true-to-label?

    C Jamieson, A Coote & P Chin, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 19-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  52. The case for equities providing income in retirement

    Maintaining a solid level of income for the retiree must remain at the forefront of thinking and a move up the risk spectrum into equities provides a solution.

    Investors Mutual | 19-08-16 | More
  53. Liquid alternatives are hedge funds for today's investor

    Critics charge that liquid alternative funds may not provide exposure to quality hedge fund managers and exhibit lower performance potential. This paper examines those concerns.

    Sam Mann & David Saunders, Franklin Templeton Investments | 19-08-16 | More
  54. The changing face of global companies

    A new breed of companies – creative, nimble and networked – offer a powerful investment opportunity. Investors need to consider diversifying domestic exposures to access this set of long-term opportunities.

    Andy Budden | 19-08-16 | More
  55. Idiosyncratic alpha

    Amongst fundamental managers, it is critical to distinction those that are genuinely active and achieve high active share and tracking error through generating idiosyncratic returns.

    Fidelity International | 19-08-16 | More
  56. Currency - the tail that wags the dog

    In portfolios with international exposure, there are times when currency returns dominate overall performance. This paper analyses the currency hedge decision from the perspective of an Australian investor with international exposure.

    J Ladekarl, D Levanoni & R Huo, First Quadrant | 18-08-16 | More
  57. Spurn the supernova & fixed in-come fear

    Bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn this talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

    UBS Asset Management | 15-08-16 | More
  58. 30 years - reflections on 10 attributes of great investors

    The world of investing and business has seen a great deal of change in the past 30 years. Investors face a slew of psychological challenges. Here are the 10 attributes I believe to be the hallmark of a great investor.

    Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse | 12-08-16 | More
  59. Equities in historical perspective - investor behavior since 1602

    Since the birth of the modern stock market in 1602, investment culture has moved from a return focus to a risk focus, and back. What can investors in the 21st century learn from four centuries of investment history?

    Jan Sytze Mosselaar & Pim van Vliet, Robeco | 11-08-16 | More
  60. Globalisation is the only answer

    Public distrust of global integration is on the rise. But no country can deliver long-term prosperity to its people on its own. Closer international cooperation and economic integration is the only way forward.

    Anabel Gonzalez, World Bank Group | 10-08-16 | 1 comment | More
  61. Globalisation and its new discontents

    Globalisation's early opponents in emerging and developing countries have been joined by tens of millions in advanced countries. The rules of the game need to be changed – and this must include measures to tame globalisation.

    Joseph Stiglitz | 09-08-16 | More
  62. The fallacy behind investor versus fund returns

    It has become accepted, conventional wisdom that investors underperform their investments by timing those investments badly. But this new conventional wisdom must be debunked.

    Michael Edesess | 08-08-16 | 1 comment | More
  63. The end of history illusion and goals-based investing

    Research suggests that we have remarkably little insight into our future preferences. So a challenge of goals-based investing is that we save towards a goal that isn't what we want when the time comes.

    Michael Kitces | 05-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  64. Mind the gap

    Considering structural and cyclical drivers can help reveal investment opportunities, if an appropriate timeframe is defined. A two- to three-year period is an under researched view.

    Georgina Taylor & Danielle Singer, Invesco Perpetual | 05-08-16 | More
  65. Europe's Brexit hangover

    The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.

    Nouriel Roubini | 03-08-16 | More
  66. The 2016 mid-year geopolitical outlook

    There are five geopolitically important issues for portfolios for the upcoming year. If these concerns become critical, they will likely weigh on equities and higher credit risk debt.

    Bill O'Grady, Confluence Investment Management | 02-08-16 | More
  67. 26 years without a recession. Or six? Or maybe only two?

    How long is it since Australia had a recession? Most would say 26 years. A world record. By looking at the data a little differently, we may not be so sure that Australia has gone 26 years without a hiccup.

    Tim Farrelly | 01-08-16 | 6 comments | More
  68. Central banks encourage irrational hedonism

    How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at an unknowable future date?

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 29-07-16 | 1 comment | More
  69. Discount narrowing - a valuable source of returns

    With most asset classes offering limited return potential, there is a drive for more alpha, but finding it is not easy. Discount narrowing on LICs can be a valuable source.

    Dominic McCormick | 28-07-16 | More
  70. Trump, Presidential powers and investment implications

    What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 27-07-16 | More
  71. The globalisation disconnect

    While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.

    Stephen Roach | 26-07-16 | More
  72. Brexit, populism and Trump

    Populism in developed countries is real, but there are meaningful differences between the UK and US stories that are important to keep in mind in the run-up to US Presidential election.

    Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 25-07-16 | More
  73. Form follows function (org structure and investment results)

    New research has found that teams of three portfolio managers deliver higher gains, adjusted for risk, than funds managed by a single individual or by teams of other sizes.

    Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse | 22-07-16 | More
  74. Britain heads for a "hard" Brexit

    With Remainers now accepting the argument that Britain should keep Europeans out, the UK is headed for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but from Europe's single market. It will cost the country dearly.

    Kevin O’Rourke, University of Oxford | 21-07-16 | More
  75. Inverted withdrawal rate approach

    Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate" approach may be a better approach than the traditional 4% rule.

    John Walton, University of Texas | 18-07-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  76. A comment on BREXIT

    The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.

    Woody Brock | 07-07-16 | More
  77. How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best?

    The "best" retirement income strategy may be very different depending on whether you measure based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure, or utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks.

    Michael Kitces | 06-07-16 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  78. QE and ZIRP have introduced massive distortions?

    QE has caused massive investment distortions. Ditto the ZIRP and NIRP policies of many central banks. Beware - the chickens are coming home to roost! It seems plausible, but...

    Tim Farrelly | 05-07-16 | More
  79. US elections have been good for long-term investors

    As the battle for the White House heats up, candidates are drawing attention to the challenges facing the nation. But whatever the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election, we believe the impact on markets will be about the same.

    Capital Group | 04-07-16 | More
  80. Inside Brexit

    I previously worked with the London think tank closely linked to David Cameron and his Tory modernisers. It was fascinating for me to watch Brexit from afar. Here's my take on what we've just witnessed.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 01-07-16 | More
  81. Reforming the Referendum

    The lesson from Brexit is clear - put questions to a popular vote only when there can be no misunderstanding about how much (or how little) is at stake. The Brexit referendum failed that test.

    Christopher Granville, Trusted Sources | 30-06-16 | More
  82. The coming EXITentialist crisis

    The Brexit referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration. What's next for the UK? Who is next to exit? What does this mean for broader global stability? And - most importantly - what are investment implications?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 27-06-16 | More
  83. How to psychologically prepare clients for bear markets

    The next bear market will come like the proverbial 'thief in the night' and none of us can predict the hour or day. Preparing clients for bearish times may be more important than portfolio design. But how?

    Bob Veres, Inside Information | 17-06-16 | More
  84. Learning from Namibia

    Since winning independence from South Africa in 1990, this country of 2.4 million people has achieved enormous gains, especially in the last couple of years.

    Joseph E. Stiglitz & Anya Schiffrin, Columbia University | 16-06-16 | More
  85. Challenges in building portfolios today (and what to do)

    The current investment environment is arguably one of the toughest ever in which to build portfolios that deliver return and are robust into the future. There are a range of approaches that can be taken.

    Dominic McCormick | 09-06-16 | 1 comment | More
  86. Setting a retirement spending policy

    Setting an appropriate spending level is one of the most crucial tasks for retirees. Spend too much and risk utter penury down the track. Be too conservative and the client spends their remaining years in unnecessary hardship.

    Tim Farrelly | 08-06-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  87. Populists and productivity

    The view prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs is that we are entering a new golden era of innovation which will radically increase productivity growth. Why haven't those gains appeared?

    Nouriel Roubini | 07-06-16 | More
  88. Why take an interest in Africa's rise?

    "Africa rising" has been a catchphrase since the beginning of this century. It is the idea that Africa, and especially Sub-Saharan Africa, could be to the 21st century what South-East Asia was to the second half of the 20th century.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 06-06-16 | More
  89. 10 "Gray Swans"

    By definition, Black Swans are unknowable - they should surprise us. But here are 10 "gray swans" complicating the outlook for markets and portfolio construction.

    Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors | 03-06-16 | More
  90. How much risk do equities contribute to diversified strategies?

    Many have spoken of the significant risks funds carry with Australian equities exposures. So I thought I'd check the evidence on the influence of equities on multi-asset portfolios.

    Michael Furey | 02-06-16 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  91. Insanity

    Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results. Central bankers seem intent on repeating their mistakes - especially when it comes to negative interest rates.

    Robert Gay | 01-06-16 | More
  92. East Asia tensions simmer

    Investors are not accounting for the structural shifts taking place in East Asia that raise the probability of market-negative events. Asia- or EM-dedicated investors should hedge their risks by exposure to DM assets.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 30-05-16 | More
  93. The global recovery is here - but may yet be derailed

    Economists and investors risk being blindsided by a global upswing that is already underway, financial historian Professor Niall Ferguson explained at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016.

    Will Jackson | 27-05-16 | More
  94. 2016 Symposium - Resources Kit

    Symposium facilitates featured a stellar line up of 20 international and local experts - including special guest keynote, Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, internationally renowned economic and financial historian - offering their expert, high conviction ideas to help build better quality investor portfolios.

    27-05-16 | More
  95. China's rapid growth is not sustainable

    China's credit-fuelled investment growth phase is reaching its end game and new sources of growth are needed to drive the economy.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 14-05-16 | More
  96. Sustained sluggishness

    Most economists continue to view the economic future as more rosy (if their forecasts of economic acceleration are any guide) while the Fed is implicitly saying the same by raising rates and forecasting further rate rises. But there are three main reasons caution.

    Hugh Giddy, Investors Mutual | 12-05-16 | More
  97. Make sense of geo-politics for investment decisions

    More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and consider the geo-political developments which are shaping the world.

    Dr Keith Suter, Global Directions | 12-05-16 | 1 comment | More
  98. Right now inflation is the most important macroeconomic indicator

    Markets are focused on the economic cycle as an indicator of central bank actions. But inflation should be the most important macro indicator on the radar of investors.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 12-05-16 | More
  99. "Debt bubble economics" rules

    Australia is increasingly resorting to "debt bubble economics" - exactly what caused bubbles and major busts in the US and other economies in recent decades.

    Dominic McCormick | 06-05-16 | 1 comment | More
  100. Why Monte Carlo analysis is optimistically biased

    Monte Carlo analysis is the most common tool used to project portfolio values - yet it has an optimistic bias that sizeably underestimate required retirement savings.

    James Lear, Guideway Financial | 06-05-16 | 3 comments | More
  101. The world will bounce back after the blues in the loos

    George Soros may be wrong about global deflation for four reasons. But if Trump wins the Republican nomination and then the presidency, all bets will be off.

    Niall Ferguson | 05-05-16 | More
  102. US recovery - entering a new phase

    Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened that the US economic recovery is moving into a new phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of growth.

    Ronald Temple | 29-04-16 | More
  103. Brexit now and we'll only have to Breturn

    The lesson of history is that British isolationism is a trigger for continental disintegration. A vote for Brexit will mean Britain will have to "Breturn" sooner or later, to sort out the ensuing mess.

    Niall Ferguson | 27-04-16 | More
  104. In defense of the Chinese Yuan

    Notwithstanding an extended period of stability this year, the Chinese Yuan remains fairly high on investors' lists of global risk factors. Perceptions of vulnerability remain and are worth addressing.

    Robert Gay | 26-04-16 | More
  105. Eight core ideas to guide retirement income planning

    Retirement income planning is a relatively new field that differs from traditional wealth accumulation. Eight key ideas serve as a manifesto for my approach to retirement income planning.

    Wade D. Pfau, The American College | 20-04-16 | More
  106. The US election - sound the trumpets?

    We expect the US election to start mattering to markets at the end of August, once the two candidates are chosen. Policy uncertainty will rise and the US equity risk premium with it.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 18-04-16 | More
  107. ZIRP & NIRP - killing retirement as we know it

    Retirees and their pensions are being sacrificed for what now passes as "the greater good." ZIRP has created a massive problem for retirement savers and pension fund managers. NIRP will make their problem worse.

    John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics | 15-04-16 | More
  108. News that should shock nobody

    I awoke to read three pieces in the papers. These items contained news that would have surprised nobody, had global economic and market commentators been doing their job of properly interpreting the news.

    Woody Brock | 14-04-16 | More
  109. What makes for a useful statistic

    The worlds of business, investing, and sports are awash in numbers, yet we rarely pause to consider what makes for a suitable statistic.

    Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse | 08-04-16 | More
  110. An ECB dead end

    You may have concluded by now that the euro crisis is over. If you are a realist, however, you would be looking at two figures and know that we are still right in the middle of the euro crisis. And it has become permanent.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 07-04-16 | More
  111. Is that portfolio really diversified?

    Even multi-asset-class portfolios aren't always really diversified. Being properly diversified means always having to say you're sorry about some investment that's not moving in the same direction as the rest.

    Michael Kitces | 06-04-16 | More
  112. Unconventional unconventional monetary policy

    Unconventional monetary policies have themselves become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have to continue their fight with a new set of "unconventional unconventional" policies.

    Nouriel Roubini | 04-04-16 | More
  113. When things fall apart

    The economic theories of the pre-crisis period – rational expectations, efficient markets, and the neutrality of money – must be revised. Politicians must encourage a revolution in economic thinking.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 01-04-16 | More
  114. A global (quant) perspective on the Australian equities market

    One might argue that Australia's high dividend yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally smaller companies means the Australian equity market behaves like a global small cap with a value style tilt. Is that true?

    Michael Furey | 31-03-16 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  115. Capturing the governance premium in less developed markets

    In the last 10 years, many companies from emerging economies have closed the corporate governance gap relative to their developed market counterparts. Such companies find themselves in a sweet spot.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 22-03-16 | More
  116. The Fed's New Neutral rate

    No one expected the FOMC to change its policy rate from 0.25% to 0.50% this month - but this month's meeting still provided plenty of unusual twists that warrant serious thought.

    Robert Gay | 21-03-16 | More
  117. Managing sequencing risk & retirement date risk

    Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing risk management strategy.

    Michael Kitces | 18-03-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  118. Reduce volatility to reduce sequencing risk?

    We're often told that the answer to managing sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility, low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!

    Tim Farrelly | 17-03-16 | 17 comments | More
  119. Should they stay or should they go?

    The Brexit referendum is about where the British see the best chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 17-03-16 | More
  120. The day the King defaulted

    The 1672 debt default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old tale of government finance that offers practical lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 15-03-16 | More
  121. Helicopter money – really?

    The policy response to a hugely levered global economy has turned to a discussion of money creation to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever more unconventional.

    Chris Watling | 14-03-16 | 0.50 CE | 6 comments | More
  122. Are most annual Investment Outlooks worthless?

    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces are frequently useless to the average investor or adviser.

    Dominic McCormick | 04-03-16 | 2 comments | More
  123. Why Brexit won't happen

    Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 23-02-16 | 2 comments | More
  124. Some simple Australian market analysis

    Very few believe that past prices can tell you something about the future but there is a somewhat remarkable consistency to the trend of the Australian equity market returns over the last 45 years.

    Michael Furey | 22-02-16 | More
  125. Markets Summit 2016 - my key takeout

    It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.

    Chris Watling | 21-02-16 | More
  126. It's not deja-vu (all over again) 2011

    Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I don't.

    Jonathan Pain | 20-02-16 | More
  127. 2016 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

    Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.

    18-02-16 | More
  128. The resources cycle is getting closer to the bottom

    In a cyclical sector like commodity, deja-vu abounds for those with a long memory. As the outlook improves, equities usually rally before commodity prices, responding to improved demand forecasts.

    Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  129. Sell/short the beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble now

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase.

    Jacob Mitchell | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  130. Investment lessons from Japan

    Often in markets, you do get the feeling that somehow we've been here before. But things are never quite the same. Looking at some examples from the past, particularly Japan, we can see what can we learn and apply to our investment decisions going forward.

    Tim Farrelly | 16-02-16 | 8 comments | More
  131. Is it deja-vu 2008?

    Many people have written to me in recent months and asked whether I believe this is yet another 2008. In my view, there are many significant differences. But I'm afraid we're set for some extreme volatility in the months, if not the years, ahead.

    Jonathan Pain | 16-02-16 | More
  132. Countries don't matter?

    For a number of years, many fund managers have maintained that country and regional analysis are no basis for making asset allocation decisions. It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

    Tim Farrelly | 15-02-16 | More
  133. Complex-ity and soph-istication

    Investors must make choices in an increasingly complex environment - and that complexity has substantial and varied effects on the decision to opt out of a portfolio choice.

    Leandro Carvalho & Dan Silverman, Capital Preferences | 11-02-16 | 2 comments | More
  134. The global corporate debt unwind

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase. It's time to sell/short the beneficiaries.

    Jacob Mitchell | 10-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  135. The bifurcation of credit risk

    Numerous explanations have been offered for the latest bout of volatility in financial markets. The one unmistakable message from this market volatility is that it is all about credit.

    Robert Gay | 10-02-16 | More
  136. Resources – getting closer to the bottom

    The resources sector is unloved, under-owned, heavily shorted and facing a slow grind to re-establish equilibrium between supply and demand. This is incorporated in the prices for equities, with discounts that reflect the negative sentiment. A contrarian with a longer term approach should be getting quite excited at this point.

    Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 09-02-16 | More
  137. What psychology suggests about decision making

    Research in psychology has revealed that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities: Merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn’t fix the problem. The real question is: How can we do better?

    Dr David Lazenby, ScenarioNow Inc | 08-02-16 | More
  138. The story of trust and the 3 Cs

    Trust is weighted differently when selling intangibles like financial advice, because there is no real product to demonstrate, nothing for your buyer to grasp. There is no physical product to be trusted. So what can be done to create trust?

    Dr David Lazenby, ScenarioNow Inc | 08-02-16 | More
  139. The global economy's New Abnormal

    How much longer can markets not only ignore the real economy, but also discount political risk? Welcome to the New Abnormal for growth, inflation, monetary policies, and asset prices.

    Nouriel Roubini | 05-02-16 | 1 comment | More
  140. It's time to go - Angela Merkel

    Only half a year ago, I explained how boring German politics had become. Angela Merkel's position seemed virtually unassailable and the 2017 election result a foregone conclusion. Not anymore.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 05-02-16 | 2 comments | More
  141. The case for gold resurrected

    When central banks are taking to extreme policies, and Donald Trump has a decent chance of being US President, we need to be prepared for anything. Gold may not be the perfect hedge, but what is?

    Dominic McCormick | 04-02-16 | More
  142. Jewels may outperform tools

    It seems that the markets are indicating that we have entered a period in which jewels (gold) will outperform tools (stocks). Try as we may (we are no gold-bugs), we struggle to find reasons to discard the market's message.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 03-02-16 | More
  143. 2015 was a year to forget, 2016 won't be a year to forgive

    For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

    Kerry Craig, JP Morgan Asset Management | 02-02-16 | More
  144. Thinking like Fed Chair Yellen

    Yellen has wanted to nip a brewing asset price bubble before it was too late. January's market selloff has accomplished her intent. Now she take her foot off the brake.

    Robert Gay | 02-02-16 | More
  145. Judging bear market lows

    There's a high likelihood that global equities are already in a Bear Market. If so, assessing the likely end of the Bear Market becomes critical. Most importantly is the need to forecast the end of the recession.

    Chris Watling | 01-02-16 | More
  146. Turbulence in the world economy and markets

    The consensus view that falling oil prices and a China slowdown are the main drivers of slowing world growth is only half the true story of why global growth is 3% rather than 6% as it was - and could and should be again.

    Woody Brock | 01-02-16 | More
  147. More from your core

    Core assets - Australian equities, global equities, and fixed income - are going to generate pretty lacklustre returns this year. Having as efficient a portfolio as possible is going to be really key to your return success.

    Kevin Anderson, State Street Global Advisors | 01-02-16 | More
  148. About Finology

    Finology explores the relationship between human beings and money in our society. It is the emerging (and converging) research field covering the study of minds, customs and behaviours with respect to money. It incorporates behaviour finance and much, much more.

    31-01-16 | More
  149. Investing in demo-graphics - an update

    Three demographic megatrends support a number of structural growth themes that allow identifiable companies to benefit from strong and compounding cash returns over investible timescales.

    Fidelity International | 31-01-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  150. Stress testing a China hard landing

    As global economic uncertainty persists in the markets, a coherent and structured approach to assess macroeconomic and market scenarios and their impact on investors’ portfolios becomes critical.

    MSCI | 31-01-16 | More
  151. A mess of Merkel's own making

    Never let a good crisis go to waste. Historically, the EU used to thrive under adversity. The current European crisis is different. It will either be the end of the EU, or at least the end of the EU as we know it.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 28-01-16 | More
  152. Does the Financial Services Council understand imputation?

    The FSC has called for a cut in the company tax rate to 22%, funded by an increase in the GST. It's hard to see why FSC made this call, particularly given that its stated number one priority is "working to improve the well-being of all Australians".

    Tim Farrelly | 22-01-16 | 4 comments | More
  153. Here comes Daddy bear

    For the last few months, I've been concerned that a bear market was likely to unfold. We are now on such a trajectory. History suggests that such episodes come in two distinct extremes.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 21-01-16 | More
  154. Annus Horribilis 2016

    2016 has started poorly for the global economy - and horribly for markets. A number of negative themes are ascendant, whereas the positive ones are either pausing or petering out.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 21-01-16 | More
  155. The euro has become a zombie currency

    All that is left of the euro is a currency that bears the same name but that has none of its original features. It is a zombie currency, an undead monetary system pretending to survive.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 21-01-16 | More
  156. The global migration blowback

    Nearly half of the world's economies are at a "high" or "very high" risk of political and social unrest. It is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Dambisa Moyo | 18-01-16 | More