The Forum team recently said a sad goodbye to our beloved sausage dog, Schnitzel von Krumm. He was well known to those who attended our live programs or visited our office over the past decade. The team has put together this montage of a few memories...

Given increasing longevity, it's important that retirees not ignore strategies that can generate long-term capital growth. In short, retirees need to re-examine the role of equities in their portfolio.

Prime Minister English could differentiate his government by focusing on housing affordability to transform the lives of millions of New Zealanders.

Another major licensee has reportedly fallen for the hybrid scare campaigns, insisting bank hybrids securities be treated as equities. The premise is hopelessly flawed.

2016 was a bumper year for history. But actually, it's just history as normal, says historian Niall Ferguson. And neither the Trump election nor Brexit signals the end of globalisation.

Mid this year, ASIC concluded its enquiry into allegations of wrongdoing and criminal behaviour at IOOF, related mainly to the research team and its then head. The real "scandal" turned out to be about reckless and biased elements of the media (and politicians).

Many worry that "the new normal" may be over, that the peak of the bond market has been reached, and so forth. We agree in part with this new view and offer some pointers to help navigate the bond market shoals ahead.

A growing body of research on the actual spending habits of retirees finds spending declines over time, implying retirees may not need to be saving as much to retire.

Growing US scepticism on international free-trade and defence agreements is rational in an unstable world, according to US geopolitical forecaster and author, George Friedman.

Following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK Brexit referendum and of Donald Trump in the US election, focus has shifted to the upcoming referendum in Italy. There is a disquieting real-time poll of investor sentiment.

Does our character manifest itself in our investing decisions? This Resources Kit presents 10 key research papers, presentations and opinion pieces around what determines values, how values impact ethics and behaviour, and the relationship to trust.

I wonder whether this post-Trump market rally and associated bullish economic and market narrative will come to be seen as one of the more prominent historical examples of poorly timed and lazy market groupthink.

Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

According to most commentators, Trump's election signifies the end of the West, the international post-War framework, or the United States. I beg to differ.

Trump must now choose between cooperation and confrontation as the framework for US policy toward China. His choice should be obvious.

Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit maximiser. This could be the most business and financial markets friendly regime in a long time.

A Trump administration means a significant shift in Washington policy for at least the next four years. There are five key areas in which Trump's policy decisions could have an economic impact.

Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal spending, and protecting entitlements at current levels. What are the investment implications?

Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.

Active Share can be an effective way to evaluate the appropriateness of a fund manager's fee. Low Active Share funds should come with index-fund-like fees.

Over the span of history, there are few years that can genuinely be considered as years on which the history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for the UK.

The belief that innovative and extremely easy monetary policy on its own would restore a suitable level of economic growth and inflation was wrong, both in theory and in practice.

Variable withdrawal strategies for retirement spending are receiving more attention. Optimal asset allocations for such strategies are quite different to rules of thumb based on fixed withdrawal strategies.

The Australian sharemarket’s high weight to resource stocks is an accident of history and geography. A lower than market cap weight to resource stocks in portfolios seems much more sensible.

The IMF is right to warn that populism poses a serious threat to the global economy. What is really worrying is It is no longer only populists of Donald Trump's ilk who are delivering it. Mainstream politicians increasingly sound populist too.

Only 1 in 10 listed companies globally achieved sustainable, profitable growth over the decade. A disproportionate number had a founder still running the firm or who remains on the Board.

Perhaps the best way to manage sequence of return risk in the years leading up to retirement and thereafter is simply to build up and then use a reserve of bonds to weather the storm.

Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.

The gravest geopolitical challenge is not terrorism, or the Middle East, or Brexit, but a possible eruption between China and the US, the world's two largest economies and militaries. It is always when the most powerful countries clash that the world is altered fundamentally.

Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

The latest reason offered as to why not to buy Australia's major banks is that their margins could be taken away by a well resourced disrupter. Should we not own the banks, as a result?

Economic growth since 2008 has been profoundly disappointing. But if we look at global economic growth over the next 30 to 60 years, the picture looks much brighter.

Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an approach to cutting through fund performance "noise" to find the signal - the bigger picture investment view that enables us to construct better investment portfolios.

Zero, and especially negative, nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.

Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

Passive investment has flourished since the GFC but we are entering a new environment where active management will thrive. The opportunity for practitioners to add value has gone up significantly.

Data overfitting is a well known problem and one would expect clever statisticians and scientists not to succumb to its temptations. But "meta-overfitting" may be endemic in finance.

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

SMSF portfolios appear inefficient – creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk for the existing return.

Change is pervasive, whether at macro, sector or stock level. This argues for an approach that does not favour any particular investment style.

A satellite allocation to global small caps can increase portfolio efficiency over the long term.

The listed infrastructure market provides investors with a broad, deep and liquid range of infrastructure investment opportunities.

Tracking error constraints on active management focus on short-term outcomes and don't align with most investor goals, which are longer term. A low tracking error portfolio can often lead to an unfavourable outcome for end investors.

Investors are increasingly short term in their orientation. An arbitrage opportunity exists for managers with a longer investment horizon.

A range of cognitive biases leads investors to generally overestimate their skill. A long-term investment strategy simply compounds this problem. A long-short investment structure can improve outcomes.

Despite interest rates being at historic lows, there are thousands of dividend income opportunities amongst global companies that can provide income for a desirable retirement lifestyle.

The infrastructure asset class, when defined in a disciplined manner, generates reliable earnings - and for the foreseeable future, earnings of infrastructure assets should continue to be reliable.

As the Australian bond market grows and sub-sectors emerge, investor must ask – is my defensive allocation true-to-label?

Maintaining a solid level of income for the retiree must remain at the forefront of thinking and a move up the risk spectrum into equities provides a solution.

Critics charge that liquid alternative funds may not provide exposure to quality hedge fund managers and exhibit lower performance potential. This paper examines those concerns.

A new breed of companies – creative, nimble and networked – offer a powerful investment opportunity. Investors need to consider diversifying domestic exposures to access this set of long-term opportunities.

Amongst fundamental managers, it is critical to distinction those that are genuinely active and achieve high active share and tracking error through generating idiosyncratic returns.

In portfolios with international exposure, there are times when currency returns dominate overall performance. This paper analyses the currency hedge decision from the perspective of an Australian investor with international exposure.

Bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn this talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

The world of investing and business has seen a great deal of change in the past 30 years. Investors face a slew of psychological challenges. Here are the 10 attributes I believe to be the hallmark of a great investor.

Since the birth of the modern stock market in 1602, investment culture has moved from a return focus to a risk focus, and back. What can investors in the 21st century learn from four centuries of investment history?

Public distrust of global integration is on the rise. But no country can deliver long-term prosperity to its people on its own. Closer international cooperation and economic integration is the only way forward.

Globalisation's early opponents in emerging and developing countries have been joined by tens of millions in advanced countries. The rules of the game need to be changed – and this must include measures to tame globalisation.

It has become accepted, conventional wisdom that investors underperform their investments by timing those investments badly. But this new conventional wisdom must be debunked.

Research suggests that we have remarkably little insight into our future preferences. So a challenge of goals-based investing is that we save towards a goal that isn't what we want when the time comes.

Considering structural and cyclical drivers can help reveal investment opportunities, if an appropriate timeframe is defined. A two- to three-year period is an under researched view.

The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.

There are five geopolitically important issues for portfolios for the upcoming year. If these concerns become critical, they will likely weigh on equities and higher credit risk debt.

How long is it since Australia had a recession? Most would say 26 years. A world record. By looking at the data a little differently, we may not be so sure that Australia has gone 26 years without a hiccup.

How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at an unknowable future date?

With most asset classes offering limited return potential, there is a drive for more alpha, but finding it is not easy. Discount narrowing on LICs can be a valuable source.

What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.

While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.

Populism in developed countries is real, but there are meaningful differences between the UK and US stories that are important to keep in mind in the run-up to US Presidential election.

New research has found that teams of three portfolio managers deliver higher gains, adjusted for risk, than funds managed by a single individual or by teams of other sizes.

With Remainers now accepting the argument that Britain should keep Europeans out, the UK is headed for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but from Europe's single market. It will cost the country dearly.

Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate" approach may be a better approach than the traditional 4% rule.

The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.

The "best" retirement income strategy may be very different depending on whether you measure based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure, or utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks.

QE has caused massive investment distortions. Ditto the ZIRP and NIRP policies of many central banks. Beware - the chickens are coming home to roost! It seems plausible, but...

As the battle for the White House heats up, candidates are drawing attention to the challenges facing the nation. But whatever the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election, we believe the impact on markets will be about the same.

I previously worked with the London think tank closely linked to David Cameron and his Tory modernisers. It was fascinating for me to watch Brexit from afar. Here's my take on what we've just witnessed.

The lesson from Brexit is clear - put questions to a popular vote only when there can be no misunderstanding about how much (or how little) is at stake. The Brexit referendum failed that test.

The Brexit referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration. What's next for the UK? Who is next to exit? What does this mean for broader global stability? And - most importantly - what are investment implications?

The next bear market will come like the proverbial 'thief in the night' and none of us can predict the hour or day. Preparing clients for bearish times may be more important than portfolio design. But how?

Since winning independence from South Africa in 1990, this country of 2.4 million people has achieved enormous gains, especially in the last couple of years.

The current investment environment is arguably one of the toughest ever in which to build portfolios that deliver return and are robust into the future. There are a range of approaches that can be taken.

Setting an appropriate spending level is one of the most crucial tasks for retirees. Spend too much and risk utter penury down the track. Be too conservative and the client spends their remaining years in unnecessary hardship.

The view prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs is that we are entering a new golden era of innovation which will radically increase productivity growth. Why haven't those gains appeared?

"Africa rising" has been a catchphrase since the beginning of this century. It is the idea that Africa, and especially Sub-Saharan Africa, could be to the 21st century what South-East Asia was to the second half of the 20th century.

By definition, Black Swans are unknowable - they should surprise us. But here are 10 "gray swans" complicating the outlook for markets and portfolio construction.

Many have spoken of the significant risks funds carry with Australian equities exposures. So I thought I'd check the evidence on the influence of equities on multi-asset portfolios.

Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results. Central bankers seem intent on repeating their mistakes - especially when it comes to negative interest rates.

Investors are not accounting for the structural shifts taking place in East Asia that raise the probability of market-negative events. Asia- or EM-dedicated investors should hedge their risks by exposure to DM assets.

Economists and investors risk being blindsided by a global upswing that is already underway, financial historian Professor Niall Ferguson explained at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016.

Symposium facilitates featured a stellar line up of 20 international and local experts - including special guest keynote, Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, internationally renowned economic and financial historian - offering their expert, high conviction ideas to help build better quality investor portfolios.

China's credit-fuelled investment growth phase is reaching its end game and new sources of growth are needed to drive the economy.

Most economists continue to view the economic future as more rosy (if their forecasts of economic acceleration are any guide) while the Fed is implicitly saying the same by raising rates and forecasting further rate rises. But there are three main reasons caution.

More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and consider the geo-political developments which are shaping the world.

Markets are focused on the economic cycle as an indicator of central bank actions. But inflation should be the most important macro indicator on the radar of investors.

Australia is increasingly resorting to "debt bubble economics" - exactly what caused bubbles and major busts in the US and other economies in recent decades.

Monte Carlo analysis is the most common tool used to project portfolio values - yet it has an optimistic bias that sizeably underestimate required retirement savings.

George Soros may be wrong about global deflation for four reasons. But if Trump wins the Republican nomination and then the presidency, all bets will be off.

Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened that the US economic recovery is moving into a new phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of growth.

The lesson of history is that British isolationism is a trigger for continental disintegration. A vote for Brexit will mean Britain will have to "Breturn" sooner or later, to sort out the ensuing mess.

Notwithstanding an extended period of stability this year, the Chinese Yuan remains fairly high on investors' lists of global risk factors. Perceptions of vulnerability remain and are worth addressing.

Retirement income planning is a relatively new field that differs from traditional wealth accumulation. Eight key ideas serve as a manifesto for my approach to retirement income planning.

We expect the US election to start mattering to markets at the end of August, once the two candidates are chosen. Policy uncertainty will rise and the US equity risk premium with it.

Retirees and their pensions are being sacrificed for what now passes as "the greater good." ZIRP has created a massive problem for retirement savers and pension fund managers. NIRP will make their problem worse.

I awoke to read three pieces in the papers. These items contained news that would have surprised nobody, had global economic and market commentators been doing their job of properly interpreting the news.

The worlds of business, investing, and sports are awash in numbers, yet we rarely pause to consider what makes for a suitable statistic.

You may have concluded by now that the euro crisis is over. If you are a realist, however, you would be looking at two figures and know that we are still right in the middle of the euro crisis. And it has become permanent.

Even multi-asset-class portfolios aren't always really diversified. Being properly diversified means always having to say you're sorry about some investment that's not moving in the same direction as the rest.

Unconventional monetary policies have themselves become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have to continue their fight with a new set of "unconventional unconventional" policies.

The economic theories of the pre-crisis period – rational expectations, efficient markets, and the neutrality of money – must be revised. Politicians must encourage a revolution in economic thinking.

One might argue that Australia's high dividend yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally smaller companies means the Australian equity market behaves like a global small cap with a value style tilt. Is that true?

In the last 10 years, many companies from emerging economies have closed the corporate governance gap relative to their developed market counterparts. Such companies find themselves in a sweet spot.

No one expected the FOMC to change its policy rate from 0.25% to 0.50% this month - but this month's meeting still provided plenty of unusual twists that warrant serious thought.

Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing risk management strategy.

We're often told that the answer to managing sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility, low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!

The Brexit referendum is about where the British see the best chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

The 1672 debt default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old tale of government finance that offers practical lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.

The policy response to a hugely levered global economy has turned to a discussion of money creation to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever more unconventional.

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces are frequently useless to the average investor or adviser.

Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

Very few believe that past prices can tell you something about the future but there is a somewhat remarkable consistency to the trend of the Australian equity market returns over the last 45 years.

It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.

Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I don't.

Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.

In a cyclical sector like commodity, deja-vu abounds for those with a long memory. As the outlook improves, equities usually rally before commodity prices, responding to improved demand forecasts.

The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase.

Often in markets, you do get the feeling that somehow we've been here before. But things are never quite the same. Looking at some examples from the past, particularly Japan, we can see what can we learn and apply to our investment decisions going forward.

Many people have written to me in recent months and asked whether I believe this is yet another 2008. In my view, there are many significant differences. But I'm afraid we're set for some extreme volatility in the months, if not the years, ahead.

For a number of years, many fund managers have maintained that country and regional analysis are no basis for making asset allocation decisions. It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

Investors must make choices in an increasingly complex environment - and that complexity has substantial and varied effects on the decision to opt out of a portfolio choice.

Numerous explanations have been offered for the latest bout of volatility in financial markets. The one unmistakable message from this market volatility is that it is all about credit.

The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase. It's time to sell/short the beneficiaries.

The resources sector is unloved, under-owned, heavily shorted and facing a slow grind to re-establish equilibrium between supply and demand. This is incorporated in the prices for equities, with discounts that reflect the negative sentiment. A contrarian with a longer term approach should be getting quite excited at this point.

Research in psychology has revealed that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities: Merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn’t fix the problem. The real question is: How can we do better?

Trust is weighted differently when selling intangibles like financial advice, because there is no real product to demonstrate, nothing for your buyer to grasp. There is no physical product to be trusted. So what can be done to create trust?

How much longer can markets not only ignore the real economy, but also discount political risk? Welcome to the New Abnormal for growth, inflation, monetary policies, and asset prices.

Only half a year ago, I explained how boring German politics had become. Angela Merkel's position seemed virtually unassailable and the 2017 election result a foregone conclusion. Not anymore.

When central banks are taking to extreme policies, and Donald Trump has a decent chance of being US President, we need to be prepared for anything. Gold may not be the perfect hedge, but what is?

It seems that the markets are indicating that we have entered a period in which jewels (gold) will outperform tools (stocks). Try as we may (we are no gold-bugs), we struggle to find reasons to discard the market's message.

For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

Yellen has wanted to nip a brewing asset price bubble before it was too late. January's market selloff has accomplished her intent. Now she take her foot off the brake.

There's a high likelihood that global equities are already in a Bear Market. If so, assessing the likely end of the Bear Market becomes critical. Most importantly is the need to forecast the end of the recession.

The consensus view that falling oil prices and a China slowdown are the main drivers of slowing world growth is only half the true story of why global growth is 3% rather than 6% as it was - and could and should be again.

Core assets - Australian equities, global equities, and fixed income - are going to generate pretty lacklustre returns this year. Having as efficient a portfolio as possible is going to be really key to your return success.

As global economic uncertainty persists in the markets, a coherent and structured approach to assess macroeconomic and market scenarios and their impact on investors’ portfolios becomes critical.

Three demographic megatrends support a number of structural growth themes that allow identifiable companies to benefit from strong and compounding cash returns over investible timescales.

Never let a good crisis go to waste. Historically, the EU used to thrive under adversity. The current European crisis is different. It will either be the end of the EU, or at least the end of the EU as we know it.

The FSC has called for a cut in the company tax rate to 22%, funded by an increase in the GST. It's hard to see why FSC made this call, particularly given that its stated number one priority is "working to improve the well-being of all Australians".

All that is left of the euro is a currency that bears the same name but that has none of its original features. It is a zombie currency, an undead monetary system pretending to survive.

For the last few months, I've been concerned that a bear market was likely to unfold. We are now on such a trajectory. History suggests that such episodes come in two distinct extremes.

2016 has started poorly for the global economy - and horribly for markets. A number of negative themes are ascendant, whereas the positive ones are either pausing or petering out.

Nearly half of the world's economies are at a "high" or "very high" risk of political and social unrest. It is a disaster waiting to happen.