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Our regular
Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new on this site and
with our live professional development progams.
A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.
Become a Member (with our
compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning
centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying
papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white
papers, opinion papers and special interest
subscription services from local and international investment
professionals and subject matter experts; and,
- CPD Campus - our online portfolio construction learning and
accreditation resource.
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The value of an investment philosophy
Dom McCormick leads Fodder this week, questioning
the value of all the investment outlook newsletters
and presentations that litter the start of any
calendar year. In his own way, he's advocating what
PortfolioConstruction Forum has been preaching for
many years - the absolute necessity of a robust
investment philosophy to make sense of the deluge of
information and ideas available. He also makes a
good point about long-term vs short-term investing
(in line with our "the long and short of it" theme
for this year's Conference in August). Read Dom's
blog - and then with it in mind, dive into the 3
highest-rated presentations from Markets Summit
2016, featuring Chris Watling, Hamish Douglass and
Ron Temple arguing their best high conviction ideas
(all three arguing a longer-term perspective, Dom
will be pleased to note!).
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education -
Graham |
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LATEST... |
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Are most annual Investment Outlooks worthless?
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the
vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces
are frequently useless to the average investor or
adviser.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners
| Opinion
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Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Does it feel
like we've been here before? The more things change,
the more they seem to stay the same! Does that mean
that, going forward, markets and asset classes will
behave as in the past? Is it deja-vu (all over
again)?
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| Resources
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The chickens are coming home to roost
For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money'
policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money'
recovery. With the Fed now two years into
tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost.
The equity bear market is underway.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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The
distorted reality is unwinding
The Fed
has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu
- there continues to be a great disagreement about
the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than
most expect and QT will impact on financial asset
volatility.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group
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Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Get ready for a record-length US recovery
This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is
still middle aged and has years to go before it
fades. While the easy money of the multi-year equity
market rally may be behind us, equity markets
continue to be attractive.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
| Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Member comments
Brexit
Anatole may well be correct about the result of the
UK Referendum on June 23rd. At this stage, in spite
of the finely balanced polls, I agree that the
Remain side has the advantage of “incumbency” with
now a whole generation of UK citizens now having no
direct experience of a non-EU world...
Garry Harradence,
Primeplan Securities
| Comment |
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RECENTLY... |
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It IS really different this time
Chris
Watling kicks off this week with a very short
blog offering his key takeout from last week's
Markets Summit 2016 - and he names his three favourite presentations of the day. We've linked
those to their microsites in the online Resources
Kit, so you can "attend" the sessions and see why
Chris recommends them so highly.
Then, Michael Furey highlights an interesting trend in
Australian equities; JP has let us publish the blog
he wrote to his clients after attending Markets
Summit 2016; Anatole Kaletsky puts up a very
convincing argument as to why Brexit is just not
going to happen; and,
Jacob Mitchell explains how portfolios can benefit
from selling/shorting the US high yield debt bubble. |
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Markets Summit 2016 - my key takeout
It was another
great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction
Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly
assessing China's future is one of the top three, if
not the top, of our global priorities at this
juncture.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| Opinion
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Some simple Australian market analysis
Very few believe that past prices can tell you
something about the future but there is a somewhat
remarkable consistency to the trend of the
Australian equity market returns over the last 45
years.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
| White
Paper
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Why this is not deja-vu 2011
Quite a few investors think that the current decline
in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we
remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign
debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is
like 2011? I'm sorry, I don't.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report
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Opinion
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Why Brexit won't happen
Among the many challenges facing the
EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired
austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and
perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to
resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
| 2
comments
| Opinion
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Sell/short beneficiaries of the US high yield debt
bubble now
The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high
yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear
case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high
yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase.
It's time to sell/short the beneficiaries - issuers
that have applied the funds to fast track corporate
ambitions.
Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners
| 1.00
CE
| White
Paper
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Member comments
Complexity
The word 'complexity' is abused in our industry. It
is mostly used to describe difficult choices with
many variables. The models used to solve the
problems are always the same outdated linear models
no matter how many variables there are...
Michael Caldis, ANZ Private Bank
| Comment |
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There's no need to wait until
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