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Our regular
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A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.
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Friday 06 May
2016 |
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Specialist, independent
investment continuing education & certification for portfolio
construction practitioners |
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Budget blues and blues in the loos
You may be feeling "budgeted
out" but don't pass over Dom McCormick's column in
this week's Fodder, in which he warns Australia's
politicians and RBA about joining the "debt bubble
economics" bandwagon. Niall Ferguson gives an
insider's perspective on Davos and offers four
reasons why George Soros's global deflation
prediction is wrong - President Trump being the wild
card. Turning to portfolios, US-based
adviser, James Lear, shows that Monte Carlo analysis (the
most common tool used to forecast portfolio values) is
optimistically biased (in his examples, by 5 to
25 times). We bring
you an insider's view on why China is heading for a
fall from SLI's Alex Wolf (who lived there as an
economic adviser to the US state department). But we
end on an optimistic note. First SSGA's Olivia Engel explains why gold is great for
portfolios (and she's not a bear) then Lazard's Ron
Temple predicts that US growth
is moving into a new (positive) phase.
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education -
Graham
P.S.
Hear Professor Niall Ferguson present live at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium
(17 May
2016). |
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LATEST... |
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"Debt bubble" economics rules
Australia is increasingly resorting to a policy (if
you can call it that) of "debt bubble economics" -
exactly what caused bubbles and major busts in the
US and other economies in recent decades.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners
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Opinion
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The world will bounce back from the blues in the
loos
But if Trump confounds my Republican
friends by winning their party's nomination and then
the presidency, all bets will be off.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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Opinion
* Hear Prof Ferguson at
PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016 (17 May
2016)
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Why Monte Carlo analysis is optimistically biased
Monte Carlo analysis is the most common tool used to
project portfolio values - yet it has an optimistic
bias that sizeably underestimate required retirement
savings.
James Lear, Guideway Financial
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White Paper
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China is falling into the middle income trap
As the
Chinese economy slows and policymakers struggle to
deal with a range of challenges, economic frictions
are mounting. Without more drastic reforms, China
will find it difficult to avoid the middle income
trap.
Alex Wolf, Standard Life Investments
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CE
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1 comment |
Resources
* Rated
in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Gold stocks are not
just for the bears
Gold stocks have become a great addition to
portfolios - firstly based on expected returns, but
also for their strong diversification benefits given
a beta of almost nothing.
Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors
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Opinion
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US recovery - entering a new phase
Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened
that the US economic recovery is moving into a new
phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of
growth.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
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Opinion
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Member comments
Australia's good fortune
First, a caveat on banking lending surveys - they
measure whether lending conditions have tightened or
loosened over the latest quarter but not whether
lending conditions are 'tight' or loose'...
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
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QE is not inflationary - a very valuable lesson
Tim, I am extremely surprised you would suggest that
this is fact, indeed a 'very valuable lesson' to be
learned. I disagree...
Malcolm Eves, Eastern Asset Management
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QE is not inflationary
The mystical non-reason you refer to is called a
balance sheet. Do the maths...
Tim
Farrelly, farrelly's
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Brexit now and we will only have to Breturn
History's
lesson is that British isolationism is a trigger
for continental disintegration. A vote for Brexit
will mean Britain will only have to "Breturn" sooner or
later, to sort out the ensuing mess.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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Opinion
* Hear Prof Ferguson at
PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016 (17 May
2016)
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The US election - sound the trumpets?
We expect the US election to start mattering to
markets at the end of August, once the two
candidates are chosen. Given the rhetoric on the
campaign trail and the possibility of an
anti-establishment President, policy uncertainty
will rise and the US equity risk premium with it.
Marko Papic, BCA Research
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White Paper
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Eight core ideas to
guide retirement income planning
Retirement income planning is a relatively new field
that differs from traditional wealth accumulation.
Eight key ideas serve as a manifesto for my approach
to retirement income planning.
Wade D. Pfau, The American College
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Opinion
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In defense of the Yuan
Notwithstanding an extended period of stability this
year, the Chinese Yuan remains fairly high on
investors' lists of global risk factors. Perceptions
of vulnerability remain and are worth addressing.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
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Opinion
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Investment grade credit - income without destroying
capital
It's
possible to have your cake and eat it too. Global
investment grade credit has not been this attractive
in spread terms for the past six years, yet the
sector has returned over 7.0% p.a. to Australian
investors over the same time period.
Robert Mead, PIMCO
| 0.50
CE
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2 comments |
Resources
* Rated
in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Member comments
Ummm
Surely the Japanese experience tells us that there
can not just be winners / neutrals, but also losers.
David
Hyde, MC2 Wealth
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Down the rabbit hole
Terrific article Tim, well done. When you start
looking into the Japanese economy you really can go
down the proverbial rabbit hole...
James
Weir, Steward Wealth
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Lessons from Japan
Debt levels for each of the sectors -households,
business and government are all fascinating and
there are lessons in each...
Tim
Farrelly, farrelly's
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Get ready for a record-length US recovery
We see the recent trends in US labour force
participation rates and the employment-to-population
ratio as very positive indicators of the labour
market strength I discussed in February at the
Markets Summit.
Ronald Temple,
Lazard Asset Management
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China's overcapacity
Hope springs eternal that China will see the wisdom
of shutting down excess capacity but alas it is not
yet so...
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
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