China/US relations are a key concern for markets - particularly under a Trump presidency. This week's Fodder offers two perspectives on the issue. In the first, internationally recognised China analyst, Linda Jakobson, gives her insider's perspective on likely relations between Beijing and Washington. In the second, UC Berkeley Prof Barry Eichengreen explains why Trump's recent summit with Xi Jinping didn't live down to (many) people's expectations. Tim Farrelly then looks at how likely US equities are to return 8% per annum going forward given their current "frothy" valuation (it's a stretch). UTS Prof Ron Bird summarises three recent academic research papers, one of which looks at whether professional investors do better when investing on their own behalf (yes). We close with Michael Kitces's top rated presentation from our recent Finology Summit in which he looks at the key trait that technology can't replace when dealing with investors.
All the best for another week's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Mark your diary! PortfolioConstruction Forum Masterclass NZ - 22 June (Auckland) - by invitation to senior portfolio construction practitioners.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK...

"The only thing more expensive than education is ignorance" - Ben Franklin

LATEST...

Markets
Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 0.50 CE | Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2017 delegates

Markets
Crouching Donald, Paper Tiger
Trump is learning that he is hemmed in by the same constraints as Obama's administration. As with Obama, the agent of change is turning out to be an agent of continuity.
Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | Opinion

Markets
Welcome to Trump Casino
The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Opinion

Strategies | Investing
Research Review: Only in Scandinavia?
Do professional investors do better when investing on their own behalf? What is the relationship between the remuneration of professional investors and performance? What role to gender and age play in the use of ETFs?
Prof Ron Bird, UTS | Review

Finology
Empathy is the essential skill to survive
The key trait for relating to investors in the future will be the one skill that our brains are not programmed to receive from a computer - empathy.
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 0.50 CE | Resources
* Rated in the top 3 presentations by Finology Summit 2017 delegates

Ron Bird, you are wrong
The primary problem with housing affordability is the supply of large amounts of capital to a relatively fixed supply of assets. This is economics 101...
David Lunn, Lifestyle Wealth Partners | Comment

Is the resilience of the Australian economy overstated?
... It is remarkable that Australia has not experienced a recession for 23 years... Looking forward, the outlook is less optimistic on the resilience of the economy.
Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management Australia | Comment

Pains Report
... one thing is for sure and that's the industrial/military/media complex is going to be incredibly destructive to Trump's presidency
Malcolm Eves, Eastern Asset Management | Comment

RECENTLY...

Markets
How will Brexit play out?
As Britain embarks on the process of disentangling itself from the EU, the country will regain control over national law and policy making, raising opportunities to implement new models.
Peter Lilley, MP  | Opinion

Markets
Brexit wheels start to turn
On Wednesday, Theresa May triggered the mechanism for UK to leave the EU. But the UK's relationship with the EU has already changed, says UK MP Peter Lilley.
Nathan Smith, National Business Review | Opinion

Investing
First-home buyers should be able to use their super
Home ownership is of critical importance for retirees. But compulsory superannuation plays a major role in ensuring low-income earners never gain access to home ownership.
Prof Ron Bird, UTS | 3 comments | Opinion

Markets
The temptations of a resilient China
Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | 1 comment | Opinion

Markets
We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error
2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.
Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 0.25 CE | Resources
* Rated in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2017 delegates

Markets | Strategies | Investing
PortfolioConstruction Forum and UTS launch the IMR Program
The Forum has partnered with UTS Business School to support the newly formed Investment Management Research Program, a research initiative in the areas of capital market operations, financial institutions/intermediaries and institutional investors.
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Update

Tax does drive investment decisions
Tim, you are very wrong about what drives property prices in Australia...
Fergus Hardingham, FM Financial Solutions | Comment

Requires two further explanations
If negative gearing is neither here nor there, according to Tim, why not abolish it and save the us all billions?
Giselle Roux, Escala Partners | Comment

Negative gearing becomes more important as interest rates rise
... property prices will be become even more sensitive to interest rates movements if negative gearing is removed.
Brad Matthews, Brad Matthews Investment Strategies | Comment

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