Will AI pay off the West’s debts?

Kenneth Rogoff  |  Harvard University  |  14 October 2025

There is no question that AI is changing the global economy at unprecedented speed. But will it rescue rich countries from intensifying debt pressures, particularly as rapidly aging populations increase pressure on benefit programs? If so, could these countries safely run even larger deficits, effectively borrowing against ultra-rich future generations?

No one should bet the farm on it.

To be sure, a wildly upbeat assessment of AI’s potential impact on economic growth has propelled asset markets higher over the last few years. This is especially true for euphoric equity markets, which conti...

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