Markets Summit 2026 - It’s a whole new world (again)! - Program

Markets Summit 2026 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and help you build better quality investor portfolios.

In each of the past three centuries, hugely disruptive technologies have redefined the world – mechanisation in the 18th century; electrification in the 19th; flight and digitisation in the 20th. And now, just five years after Covid disrupted and reshaped the world like no other crisis since World War II, AI has kickstarted a fourth industrial revolution that will fundamentally change the way we work and live once more. Simultaneously, US President Trump is rapidly dismantling long-held US policy norms, attempting to reshape the government, judiciary, military and media while weaponising national economic policy – heralding in a whole new world of economic statecraft.

Economic statecraft and the race for supremacy in AI and control of rare earths is adding further fuel to US-China rivalry and titanic geopolitical struggle which is playing out in multiple domains, challenging US dollar hegemony and reshaping international relations as other countries respond and reposition – heralding in a whole new world of global economic and security policy, reshaping the global geopolitical, economic and trade order.

Opportunities abound for those able to identify the powerful cyclical, secular and structural changes afoot that are reshaping economies and markets, and reorientate investment portfolios accordingly.

In short, immense societal and economic upheaval is upending the outlook for investment markets. It’s a whole new world (again)!

We look forward to you joining us - at our Live Studio in Sydney, at one of our Live Sites around Australia and NZ, or via our Live Stream from your desk.

Graham Rich
Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum

A quick introduction   About Markets Summit; Knowledge Domain; Theme

Prep:  Videos and readings to get you thinking

Program:  Timetable, Sessions and Faculty

A quick introduction

Established in 2009, Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year.

Held in February each year in association with CIMA Society Asia Pacific, the community of practice for investment and wealth management professionals, Markets Summit focuses on debating the drivers of and outlook for the investment markets, and the implications for portfolios.

The Markets Summit program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team. It is moderated by our Dean, Graham Rich, and features a Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - from around the world, offering their best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the implications for portfolios.

Markets Summit is our “summer school” companion program to our “winter school” Strategies Summit in August, which focuses on the investment factors and human factors in portfolio construction, addressing a range of contemporary and emerging portfolio construction issues. Together, Markets Summit and Strategies Summit form a two-part annual series for those committed to structured continuing education that contributes to better quality multi-asset, multi-manager investment portfolio construction.

Knowledge Domain:   Markets

The Forum’s subject matter focus is on five Knowledge Domains – Strategies, Markets, Investing, Finology and Philosophy. As its name implies, Markets Summit is focused primarily on our “Markets” knowledge domain.

Markets - understanding the drivers of and outlook for the investment markets
The drivers of global securities markets are many and ever-changing, as geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate developments influence the relative attractiveness of equities, debt and other asset classes, over cyclical, secular, and structural time horizons. By understanding how markets operate and what is driving them, portfolio construction practitioners can better identify and understand the outlook for investment markets, and the implications for portfolios.

Theme:  It’s a whole new world (again)!

Markets Summit 2026 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and help you build better quality investor portfolios.

In each of the past three centuries, hugely disruptive technologies have redefined the world – mechanisation in the 18th century; electrification in the 19th; flight and digitisation in the 20th. And now, just five years after Covid disrupted and reshaped the world like no other crisis since World War II, AI has kickstarted a fourth industrial revolution that will fundamentally change the way we work and live once more. Simultaneously, US President Trump is rapidly dismantling long-held US policy norms, attempting to reshape the government, judiciary, military and media while weaponising national economic policy – heralding in a whole new world of economic statecraft.

Economic statecraft and the race for supremacy in AI and control of rare earths is adding further fuel to US-China rivalry and titanic geopolitical struggle which is playing out in multiple domains, challenging US dollar hegemony and reshaping international relations as other countries respond and reposition – heralding in a whole new world of global economic and security policy, reshaping the global geopolitical, economic and trade order.

Opportunities abound for those able to identify the powerful cyclical, secular and structural changes afoot that are reshaping economies and markets, and reorientate investment portfolios accordingly.

In short, immense societal and economic upheaval is upending the outlook for investment markets. It’s a whole new world (again)!

Prep

To maximise your learning, we provide you with some prep - some videos and readings - aimed at refreshing your memory, boosting your knowledge, and getting you thinking about the issues to be addressed in the program. The preparation is assumed prior knowledge.

Get in the groove:

Boost your knowledge:

Catch up on what you missed:

Program at a glance

Wednesday 25 February 2026

 
AEDT 8.00am - Pre-opening scene-setter - this includes our very popular, annual retrospective on the key global news and events of the prior year.

BLOCK 1 – Macro matters (part 1)

 
AEDT 8.30am - Critical Issues Forum

It’s a whole new world
2025 was likely the beginning of the end of US exceptionalism in markets. The US dollar is likely to weaken further over the years ahead as investors increase hedge ratios and reduce exposure to US assets. Developed market yield curves are likely to steepen, as bloated fiscal deficits further expand. Further complicating the medium-term outlook, seismic geopolitical shifts are likely to force investors to reassess risk globally. It’s a whole new world (again)! – but many portfolios are positioned for the past based on an incomplete assessment of risk and reward. It’s time to overhaul our operating assumptions for the economy, geopolitics, and markets.
- Graham Rich, Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum
- Ronald Temple, CFA, Chief Market Strategist, Lazard (New York)
- Inquisitor:  Isaac Poole, PhD, CIMA®, Chief Investment Officer, Ascalon Capital (Burnie)

 
AEST 9.30am - Critical Issues Forum

Investors must adapt to a more tribal, less rational world
At Strategies Summit in August 2025, Oliver delivered the inaugural Da Vinci Lecture, called Leonardo’s Legacy. It ended with a warning: the rules that had governed the international order for four centuries were being quietly emptied of content. The architecture was still standing but the foundations were shifting. Six months later, that warning looks timid. This lecture picks up where Leonardo’s Legacy left off. The diagnosis remains the same. But this time, we attempt an answer to the practical question – what should investors do now? The thesis is stated without qualification. Investors must adapt to a more tribal, less rational world. Unfortunately, this is not a forecast of what might happen. It describes the world we already inhabit.

da Vinci Lecture: Investors must adapt to a more tribal, less rational world
For decades, investors relied on a stable, predictable world. Today, that world is being mugged by reality. We are witnessing the end of the old rule that countries will always act in their own economic interest. As attention spans shrink and social media creates deeper tribal divides, the capacity for sensible debate is disappearing. Reason is being replaced by emotional reactions and raw power politics. Practitioners must stop building models that assume everyone is rational and start positioning for a world run by power. To prosper, portfolios must focus on places where the rule of law still matters and identify the strategic bottlenecks that now pick the winners and losers.
- Oliver Hartwich, PhD, Portfolio Construction Forum 2025/26 Visiting Fellow (Wellington)
- Inquisitor:  Wayne Fitzgibbon, Founder & Chief Investment Strategist, Thinking Differently (Sydney)

 
AEDT 10.15am - Break

BLOCK 2 – Asset class opportunities

 
AEDT 10.45am - Critical Issues Forum

It’s a whole new world of asset class opportunities (Part 1)
Powerful cyclical, secular and structural changes are reshaping the outlook for asset classes and opportunities abound for those able to reorientate investment portfolios accordingly. This session explores a mix of perspectives on the drivers of and outlook for global fixed income and global small cap equities, including:

RBA’s lower speed limit means lower interest rates, not higher
The Reserve Bank of Australia began 2025 with the first rate cut of the cycle and opened 2026 hiking them. It really is a whole new world! The rationale has changed, too. Through 2025, the RBA downgraded its expectations of potential growth in Australia, or the “speed limit” that the economy can grow at without creating inflation pressure. But as the RBA hikes rates to curb inflation due to a lower speed limit, should investors ultimately be expecting lower bond yields or higher bond yields? While the RBA may be starting 2026 responding to cyclical inflation pressures, through time and across countries over the secular horizon, lower trend growth rates have been correlated with lower interest rates, not higher.
- Adam Bowe, CFA, GAICD, Head of Australia Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney)

The new world favours global small-cap equities
A changing equity market structure is emerging, driven by changing investor behaviour and advances in AI. As markets become broader, more inefficient, and increasingly complex, this environment requires a complete rethink of how markets function and how alpha is generated. Global small-cap equities sit at the centre of this shift. They represent one of the last frontiers of inefficiency in public markets, where dispersion, limited analyst coverage and wide breadth continue to create pricing inefficiencies. With valuations in many regions still below large-cap peers and earnings growth broadening, the asset class presents a compelling long-term opportunity over the next three to five years.
- Dennis Walsh, Global Co-Head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (New York)

- Inquisitor:  Jacqueline Fernley, CFA, GAICD, Founding Partner, Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer, arcpoint OCIO (Sydney)

 
AEDT 11.40am - On the move to Special Interests Forum

 
AEDT 11.45am - Special Interests Forum 1

It’s a whole new world of asset class opportunities (Part 2)
Choice of two concurrent sessions:

1.  Small caps’ structural advantage is durable and deepening
The dominance of passive investing and mega-cap concentration has created a widening structural opportunity in small-cap equities. As index flows channel capital toward ever-fewer large companies, the 5,000 smaller companies that represent 90% of developed-market listed securities receive less institutional attention, less analyst coverage, and less capital - deepening mispricing’s that have historically driven long-term outperformance. These dynamics are accelerating - sell-side economics continue to deteriorate, coverage gaps are widening, and the proportion of small caps with no analyst coverage now exceeds 30%. The result is the widest inefficiency in public equity markets and a compelling return outlook for investors with the patience and depth of knowledge to exploit it. Small-cap alpha is structural, not cyclical, and the conditions that generate it are strengthening.
- Greg Dean, CFA, Founder & Lead Investor, Langdon Equity Partners (Toronto)
- Inquisitor:  Jonathan Tolub, Partner & Portfolio Manager, InvestSense (Sydney)

2.  The new world’s winners will look very different from past decades
The value factor has underperformed for a decade and frustrated allocators have increasingly abandoned the style, with global equity portfolios heavily tilted towards factors and regions trading at historical extremes. Value is too often perceived as low quality, cyclical, economically sensitive and littered with disrupted former titans. But allocators willing to take a more contemporary approach to identifying value can build in diversifying ballast within global equity portfolios, particularly against a backdrop of increasingly concentrated passive exposure. Markets are entering a whole new world (again!), a turning point where the next cycle’s winners will look very different from the past decades. AI is hardly the only activity reshaping the world – geopolitical realignment, energy transition, and aging demographics are creating profound mispricing, offering asymmetric opportunities and, in turn, diversification and downside protection against passive core portfolios overweight the ‘old world’.
- Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer, Antipodes Partners (Sydney)
- Inquisitor:  Calvin Richardson, CIMA®, Senior Investment Consultant, Zenith Investment Partners (Melbourne)

 
AEDT 12.25pm - Break

 
AEDT 1.00pm - On the move to Special Interests Forum

 
AEDT 1.05pm - Special Interests Forum 2

It’s a whole new world of asset class opportunities (Part 3)
Choice of two concurrent sessions:

1.  Global REITs are the new world’s most overlooked opportunity
While investors chase the latest market darlings, Global REITs - an asset class with a proven long-term track record of competitive returns and reliable income - have become arguably the new world’s most overlooked asset class. The valuation disconnect between REITs and broader equities is at levels only seen during the GFC, yet the underlying real estate fundamentals tell a very different story. A global undersupply of housing is driving persistent rent growth, an ageing population is fuelling demand for healthcare and senior living properties, and new construction across key sectors is falling, setting up well-capitalised landlords to benefit from tightening supply. For investors willing to look past short-term sentiment, this whole new world of disruption has created arguably the world’s most overlooked asset class - it’s time to ‘buy-the-dip’ in high quality global real estate.
- Sonia Luton, Executive Director & Managing Director, Resolution Capital (Sydney)
- Inquisitor:  Jonathan Tolub, Partner & Portfolio Manager, InvestSense (Sydney)

2.  Unconscious and concentrated – it’s no time to be passive
We’re witnessing a profound and transformation shift in markets and economies, marked by an end to globalisation and a focus on national priorities, intertwined with the drive for AI supremacy. It’s a whole new world! This environment lends itself to leaders and policymakers leveraging all available tools including not only significant fiscal policy initiatives but also, where possible, monetary policy settings, to sponsor greater national progress. While this significant shift is expected to support medium-term economic growth, considerable questions remain regarding how it will all be funded, with the debt trajectories of many large sovereigns, including the US, highly challenged. Meanwhile, AI is rapidly transforming and disrupting the technological and economic landscape at a time of unprecedented passive index investing, where diversification has become concentration in a handful of mega-cap names. The world we’ve come from is very different to the one we’re in now - yet investor habits appear little changed. This is not time to be inactive! Instead, investors need to recognise that more volatility means more ‘active’ opportunities in bond and credit markets, and that fixed income allocations should position for a shift toward a lower cost of capital and for yields that are likely to head lower in support of national priorities. In the new world, investors need to be selective in credit markets, avoiding opaque and small issuers amid much disruption and instead, add exposures on weakness as policymakers seek to support favourable market conditions.
- Brett Lewthwaite, Chief Investment Officer, Head of Fixed Income & Head of Credit, Macquarie Asset Management (Sydney)
- Inquisitor:  Calvin Richardson, CIMA®, Senior Investment Consultant, Zenith Investment Partners (Melbourne)

 
AEDT 1.45pm - On the move to Critical Issues Forum

 
AEDT 1.50pm - Critical Issues Forum

It’s a whole new world of asset class opportunities (Part 4)
Powerful cyclical, secular and structural changes are reshaping the outlook for asset classes and opportunities abound for those able to reorientate investment portfolios accordingly. This session explores a mix of perspectives on the outlook for real assets, global absolute return debt, and Australian and international private credit, including:

Get Real – we must wake up to the whole new world
In a world of fake news and great power politics, we all need to pay greater attention to our information diet and its impact on investment process. Navigating a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape requires identifying assets that will boost portfolio resilience across a range of scenarios. Real assets, including direct lending, core real estate, and infrastructure, can help improve overall portfolio efficiency by offering positive returns during periods of economic contraction and high inflation.
- Michael Meehan, CFA, Managing Director & Portfolio Strategist, Nuveen (New York)

It’s a new world of price sensitive demand for fixed income
For more than two decades, global fixed income markets have been substantially underpinned by large scale price insensitive demand from central banks, to facilitate mercantilist exchange rate policies. The implications of this have been profound. Lower market volatility, flatter yield curves, and compressed credit spreads have all helped to underpin the valuable role of defensive fixed income in investor portfolios. An ever-present central bank demand backstop also led to relaxed positions on fiscal deficits and mounting debt stocks from serving governments. We are now entering a market devoid of price insensitive demand for the first time in two decades. The risk/return profile of high-quality global fixed income will be challenged going forward.
- James McAlevey, CFA, Head of Global Aggregate and Absolute Return, BNP Paribas Asset Management (London)

In the new world, private credit still holds steady
Against a backdrop of global and local markets adjusting to a world of higher volatility, divergent monetary policy and companies increasingly choosing to stay private, the demand for non-bank lending in Australia continues to accelerate. A persistent supply–demand imbalance, combined with tighter bank capital requirements, is opening the door to more opportunities for private lenders. Australia’s lender-friendly insolvency regime, stronger covenants and terms, enable lenders to effectively manage risk and safeguard investor capital, offering an attractive risk-adjusted return outlook.
- Andrew Lockhart, Managing Partner, Metrics Credit Partners (Sydney)

Global private credit is tailor-made for a whole new world
As demand for private credit has grown over the past five years, so too has the availability of offerings such as the US Business Development Companies (BDCs). Decades of bank retrenchment, tighter regulation and the secular decline in listed companies have shifted lending into private channels, while higher rates have reinforced the appeal of floating-rate, income-generating exposures. This structural rewiring of credit markets is reshaping the medium-term investment landscape. The return outlook for BDCs sits in the 8–13% range, driven primarily by base rates, credit spreads and fee income. With interest rate and credit risk already reflected in public BDC valuations, the current balance of risks tilts toward a favourable risk/return profile.
- Ji He, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Muzinich & Co (New York)

- Inquisitor:  Matthew Cho, Senior Asset Consultant - Evidentia Private, Evidentia Group (Melbourne)

 
AEDT 3.05pm - On the move to Special Interests Forum

 
AEDT 3.15pm - Special Interests Forum 3

It’s a whole new world of asset class opportunities (Part 5)
Choice of two concurrent sessions:

1.  Core infrastructure is a generational investment opportunity?
Headlines everywhere highlight the growing demand for power generation, largely driven by digitalisation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation. A topic less spoken about is the undersupply of infrastructure needed to support it – and how this could provide a real market opportunity for investors. To meet this demand, trillions of dollars would be necessary over the next five years, creating what could be a generational investment opportunity in core infrastructure assets, offering attractive current yield, the opportunity for diversification, and potential relative downside protection.
- Teiki Benveniste, Managing Director & Head of AWMS Australia/NZ, Ares Wealth Management Solutions (Sydney)
- Inquisitor:  Jonathan Tolub, Partner & Portfolio Manager, InvestSense (Sydney)

2.  ABF offers the best risk-adjusted yield in private markets today
The first order impact of post-GFC bank retrenchment trimmed corporate credit risk from their balance sheets and bore the Direct Lending boom. We are now in the early innings of ABF filling a similar void of capital. ABF touts an +11tn TAM with less than $500bn of dedicated fund manager AUM currently addressing the opportunity set across a wide variety of Hard Assets and Financial Assets.
- Owen Libby, CAIA, Principal - Alternative Credit, Blue Owl Capital (New York)
- Inquisitor:  Calvin Richardson, CIMA®, Senior Investment Consultant, Zenith Investment Partners (Melbourne)

 
AEDT 3.55pm - On the move to Special Interests Forum

 
AEDT 4.00pm - Critical Issues Forum

It’s a whole new world of asset class opportunities (Part 6)
Powerful cyclical, secular and structural changes are reshaping the outlook for asset classes and opportunities abound for those able to reorientate investment portfolios accordingly. This session explores a diverse mix of perspectives on the outlook for on the outlook for global equities and liquid alternatives, including:

Quality and valuation still drive long-term returns
It’s a whole new world (again)! Artificial Intelligence is disrupting industries and creating winners, losers, and perceived losers. Sentiment, capital flows, and fundamentals are colliding to create market volatility and investment opportunities – reinforcing that long-term value is created by owning resilient businesses rather than chasing momentum.
- David Steinthal, Chief Investment Officer, L1 Capital International (Sydney)

US technological dominance is cracking, a new power is rising
The established narrative of US dominance accounts for more than 70% of global market capitalisation. The first phase of the AI super cycle was driven by a narrow group of US companies, but the world’s reliance and dependence on US technology and defence has shifted. The next phase of the AI cycle will be driven by capital-intensive infrastructure build-out, funding data centres, compute clusters and power systems. This investment is no longer confined to the United States as other economies – notably China – threaten US dominance. AI is moving into real world deployment with demand spreading across semiconductors, energy, uranium, copper, robotics and industrial automation. A new chapter of technological power has begun beyond US borders.
- Billy Leung, CPA, Senior Investment Strategist, Global X (Sydney)

A whole new world demands bold, flexible liquid alternatives
Liquid alternatives promise two things - diversification from equities and compelling standalone returns. Yet most fall short because they don’t take enough risk. Excessive caution dampens long-term returns, imposes an unrealistic burden on manager skill, and delivers too little protection in equity drawdowns, when returns simply aren’t strong enough to matter. In a world defined by macro shocks, geopolitical fracture, and technological disruption, investors need liquid alternatives to be bold and flexible – embracing higher volatility; pursuing market neutrality rather than negative equity beta; and harvesting opportunity on both the upside and downside.
- Suhail Shaikh, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Fulcrum Asset Management (London)

- Panellist:  Rebecca Jacques, Head of Wealth Management Investment Solutions, Mercer (Sydney)
- Inquisitor:  Nick Schoenmaker, CFA, FRM, Partner, Portfolio Construction Forum (Sydney)

BLOCK 1 – Macro matters (part 2)

 
AEDT 5.20pm - Critical Issues Forum

We are living in a whole new world of radical disruption
The world changed in January 2025 with Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president. Shortly after taking office, Trump threw a hand grenade into the engine room of the global economy with his Liberation Day tariffs. Yet the 47th president of the United States is transactional, not ideological, and by the end of 2025 the US had reached a trade deal with China. While the trade war between the world’s two largest economies may be over, an artificial intelligence and electrification arms race is in full swing. This battle is creating a complex economic environment in 2026, with huge capital investment by technology majors boosting both growth and inflation, while cheap Chinese exports and crude oil weigh on consumer prices. Meanwhile, Wall Street is likely to test the resolve of incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh later this year, further fuelling the prospects for market volatility. We are living in an age of exponential change and radical uncertainty, turbo-charged by rapid advancements in AI. We must prepare ourselves (and our portfolios) for the seismic societal and economic shocks that are hurtling our way – we’re witnessing the mother of all disruptions.
- Jonathan Pain, Author, The Pain Report (Sydney)

 
AEST 5.45pm - Markets Summit 2026 adjourns

 
AEST 5.45pm - Markets Summit 2026 Networking Drinks (live studio)

Join us for a relaxed catch up with your fellow delegates (ending 6.45pm).

Thursday 05 March 2026

 
AEDT 12.00pm - Markets Summit 2026 Implementation Zoominar
Our post-program Implementation Zoominar led by consulting firm, InvestSense, draws together the key takeouts from Markets Summit 2025 and the practical implications for client portfolios, helping you to decide the key priorities. The Zoominar registration link was in your Markets Summit 2026 registration confirmation email and prep email.

 
AEDT 1.30pm - Markets Summit 2026 ends

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