The world is always uncertain. Many events – wars, pandemics, terror attacks – have felt historic at the time but have had little lasting impact on either economies or markets. More recently, despite the US’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, globalisation is alive and well. Real oil prices remain near the long-run average despite the closure of the Straits of Hormuz causing the biggest hit to global oil supply in history. Recessions are caused by a bust in business investment but there has never been a bust without a boom – and we are not there yet. Bond yields have “normalised” after 15 years o...