Despite the rising risks, uncertainties, and large negative supply shocks of the last two years, stock markets and the overall global economy have held up quite well. Following the shock of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” (02 April) tariffs in 2025 came this year’s Iran War, which caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s.

Yet, according to International Monetary Fund data, global growth was as high in 2025 as it was in 2024 (3.5%), and global inflation was lower in 2025 than in 2024. And, while global growth is expected to slow to 3% this year, it is...