The world is always uncertain. Many events – wars, pandemics, terror attacks – have felt historic at the time but have had little lasting impact on either economies or markets. More recently, despite the US’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, globalisation is alive and well. Real oil prices remain near the long-run average despite the closure of the Straits of Hormuz causing the biggest hit to global oil supply in history. Recessions are caused by a bust in business investment but there has never been a bust without a boom – and we are not there yet. Bond yields have “normalised” after 15 years of historic lows while equity markets have mean reverted since the GFC, possibly suggesting near-term downside, but we are yet to see an end-of-cycle melt-up. Every era convinces itself it’s living through something unprecedented. Noise and cognitive bias can distort our reading of the world – but a fresh lens reveals just how resilient the global economy really is.