When considering the ethics of our actions, we often rely on two approaches - considering the outcomes and consequences, and whether the action accords with rules and norms. The effectiveness of a third approach is the focus of this research paper.
Markets can remain stable at the index level even as risk becomes more uneven, more concentrated, and more difficult to hedge. This week's signals suggest that is now the dominant dynamic.
Markets are currently pricing stability. But the underlying system remains constrained and market structure is becoming more fragile. The gap between pricing and reality is where risk tends to emerge.
Behavioural analysis enables a deeper insight into fund performance and the identification of highly skilled managers capable of generating consistent investment alpha.
A market can absorb volatility for a long time. It can absorb headlines, short-term oil spikes, and contradictory policy signals. What is harder to absorb is a shift from price disruption to actual constraint.
AI has emerged as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century, offering remarkable capabilities in data processing, pattern recognition, and automation. This paper provides a useful discussion of the use of AI by investment funds.
The shift this week is subtle, but important. Markets are beginning to transition from a world where policy drives outcomes, to a world where physical constraints and geopolitical realities drive outcomes. The distinction matters.
Historically a feature of the medical and legal professions, oaths have become increasingly popular in promoting ethical practice in other occupations. The effectiveness in the financial advice context is the focus of this research paper.
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has forced markets to confront how dependent the global economy remains on physical infrastructure - shipping lanes, energy flows, and industrial supply chains. Yet equity indices have remained relatively resilient, suggesting investors still assume the disruption will prove temporary.
Markets spent the week attempting to price a geopolitical shock whose macro consequences remain highly uncertain. The challenge is not predicting how the conflict evolves. It is recognising how shocks like this propagate through portfolios.
Markets are not panicking. They are re-learning what uncertainty costs. The key signal is not that “something happened". It is that diversification is becoming more conditional. Those constructing portfolios need to be explicit about what they own, why they own it, and what they expect it to do when escalation risk becomes live.
2025 was likely the beginning of the end of US exceptionalism in markets. It's a whole new world (again)! – but many portfolios are positioned for the past based on an incomplete assessment of risk and reward.
For decades, investors relied on a stable, predictable world. Today, that world is being mugged by reality. Portfolios must focus on places where the rule of law still matters and identify the strategic bottlenecks that now pick the winners and losers.
This session explored two perspectives on the drivers of and outlook for Australian and global fixed income - The RBA's lower speed limit means lower interest rates, not higher; and, Unconscious and concentrated, it's no time to be passive.
The dominance of passive investing and mega-cap concentration has created a widening structural opportunity in small-cap equities. As index flows channel capital toward ever-fewer large companies, the 5,000 smaller companies that represent 90% of developed-market listed securities receive less institutional attention, less analyst coverage, and less capital - deepening mispricing’s that have historically driven long-term outperformance. These dynamics are accelerating - sell-side economics continue to deteriorate, coverage gaps are widening, and the proportion of small caps with no analyst coverage now exceeds 30%. The result is the widest inefficiency in public equity markets and a compelling return outlook for investors with the patience and depth of knowledge to exploit it. Small-cap alpha is structural, not cyclical, and the conditions that generate it are strengthening.
The value factor has underperformed for a decade and frustrated allocators have increasingly abandoned the style, with global equity portfolios heavily tilted towards factors and regions trading at historical extremes. Value is too often perceived as low quality, cyclical, economically sensitive and littered with disrupted former titans. But allocators willing to take a more contemporary approach to identifying value can build in diversifying ballast within global equity portfolios, particularly against a backdrop of increasingly concentrated passive exposure. Markets are entering a whole new world (again!), a turning point where the next cycle’s winners will look very different from the past decades. AI is hardly the only activity reshaping the world – geopolitical realignment, energy transition, and aging demographics are creating profound mispricing, offering asymmetric opportunities and, in turn, diversification and downside protection against passive core portfolios overweight the ‘old world’.
While investors chase the latest market darlings, Global REITs - an asset class with a proven long-term track record of competitive returns and reliable income - have become arguably the new world’s most overlooked asset class. The valuation disconnect between REITs and broader equities is at levels only seen during the GFC, yet the underlying real estate fundamentals tell a very different story. A global undersupply of housing is driving persistent rent growth, an ageing population is fuelling demand for healthcare and senior living properties, and new construction across key sectors is falling, setting up well-capitalised landlords to benefit from tightening supply. For investors willing to look past short-term sentiment, this whole new world of disruption has created arguably the world’s most overlooked asset class - it’s time to ‘buy-the-dip’ in high quality global real estate.
A changing equity market structure is emerging, driven by changing investor behaviour and advances in AI - and global small-cap equities sit at the centre of this shift, as one of the last frontiers of inefficiency in public markets.
The first phase of the AI super cycle was driven by a narrow group of US companies, but the world’s reliance and dependence on US technology and defence has shifted. A new chapter of technological power has begun beyond US borders.
Liquid alternatives promise two things - diversification from equities and compelling standalone returns. Yet most fall short. Investors need liquid alternatives to be bold and flexible.