The shift this week is subtle, but important. Markets are beginning to transition from a world where policy drives outcomes, to a world where physical constraints and geopolitical realities drive outcomes. The distinction matters.

Markets spent the week attempting to price a geopolitical shock whose macro consequences remain highly uncertain. The challenge is not predicting how the conflict evolves. It is recognising how shocks like this propagate through portfolios.

Fortunately, the Fed chair is not an absolute monarch. Warsh will have only one vote out of 12 on the FOMC. That is good news for markets, given how misguided some of his stated positions are.

Markets are not breaking. They are repricing assumptions. What stands out most right now is not recession panic, nor speculative euphoria - but transition. The more useful question is not “Are we heading into a downturn?” It is: “What regime are we moving toward - and which portfolio assumptions quietly depend on the old one?”

Despite the US economy's strong performance in 2025 which is likely to continue in 2026, it is hard to escape the conclusion that, over the medium term, Trump's decisions over the past year will expose the US to massive risks.

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This has been a bumpy year for the US economy. The big question now is what 2026 will bring. Even if important downside risks remain, one can be cautiously optimistic heading into the new year.

As 2025 draws to a close, markets are experiencing what is best described as a "crisis of faith". What this means for investors will depend on the actions already taken so far this year. Those who did nothing are now stuck between a rock and a very hard place.

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While most people regard the Sino-American rivalry as a new cold war, the truth is that both countries are tightly constrained. Today's cold warriors are being pushed toward some sort of truce.

The future of money and payment systems will be characterised by evolution, not some radical crypto revolution. One way or another, it will remain within the state's purview.

Partly due to post-pandemic inflation but more fundamentally because real interest rates appear to have normalised, the free-lunch logic underlying anti-austerity economics has been exposed for what it always was - a dangerous illusion.

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In the long history of US central banking, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stands out as a hero. His disciplined performance at this year's Jackson Hole gathering was an extraordinary, Volcker-like act of political courage.

The subject at hand being so difficult, it is no surprise that almost all commentators can find some logical justification for any theory of currencies they may hold.

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair does not end until May 2026. But US President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to name the next chair early in an effort to undermine Powell.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War and Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 led to a massive spike in oil prices that fuelled severe stagflation. This time is likely to be different for many reasons.

In an industry saturated with greenwashing, woke-washing, whitewashing, and other appeals to our ethical sensibilities, moral courage is a critical virtue for upholding high ethical standards and building societal trust.

There is growing public alarm about how generative AI might obliterate industries and professions. What's often overlooked is that the first major victim will undoubtedly be the technology sector itself.