The question of whether China is a bubble is critical for strategic asset allocation, for the outlook for emerging markets, for the future strength of global economic growth, and in determining how much longer the commodity super cycle is likely to continue...

The rise in prices for natural resources and the associated planned increase in Australian-based capacity to supply key commodities is one of the largest economic events in our history. I will structure my remarks around four questions: What do we know from previous booms? What do we know about this one? What don't we know? How should we respond?

A regular keynote at PortfolioConstruction Conference, the Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren was unable to join us this year - so in association with Ironbark Asset Management, we recently caught up with Pippa to get her views on building shock resistant portfolios...

PortfolioConstruction Forum publisher, Graham Rich, caught up with the Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, for an update on her view of the markets...

The following is an introductory review and synopsis of recent commentary on the Global Financial Crisis. What are the possible "road(s) to recovery"? And, what are the sign posts? What are the implications for portfolios, and how do we communicate them to investors?

Many planners still use long term historical returns to estimate future market returns on the basis that, if the historical period is long enough, everything smoothes out. This is pure bunk. In order to demonstrate this as conclusively as possible, we illustrate the impact of using 20 year historical returns as forecasts for the subsequent decade across six major equity markets over the past 107 years...

In the next few weeks, the publishing industry will have given us two books that, paired together, blow the doors off of conventional market theory. Both acknowledge that if you want to study and understand the markets, instead of examining the movements of stock prices, you have to shift your attention to the people who are actually making the trades...

Index investing has served investors well but Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel thinks it can be made even better. He proposes replacing the standard market capitalisation index with a "fundamental" index. However, not everyone agrees that this "new paradigm" will work...

Given the long-term timeframe of superannuation investors – 20 or 30 years – and the long-term nature of many agribusiness ventures, the two make a good match, says Frank Delaunty, managing director of Dirt Management Agricultural Investment Managers, managers of Warakirri Agriculture, in explaining his product to attendees at the recent Lonsec Agribusiness Conference...

The U.S. is the only driver of the world economy, contended Robert Gottliebsen, National Business Commentator for The Australian, speaking at last week's 2003 AXA Expo. And in his view, the housing effect is the single biggest reason Australia came out less scathed then the US in recent financial times...

With the risk of war in Iraq at very high levels, Dr Don Stammer, the Portfolio Construction Forum Asset Allocation Board's independent chairman, shares his thoughts about the similarities and differences to the 1991 Gulf War, and how the global economy is affected by the threat and actuality of a war in the Middle East.

Inflation has long been the scourge of Central banks everywhere, but ever since Alan Greenspan used the ‘d’ word last September, deflation has replaced inflation as the spectre troubling economic policy makers.

Boutique managers are becoming increasingly popular, but do they add value? Yes and No, according to van Eyk Research managing director Stephen van Eyk in his presentation to the recent inaugural meeting of the Portfolio Construction Forum Researchers’ Roundtable. The following article summarises Stephen's rationale, and links to his presentation, including performance analysis of more than 30 boutique, medium and large Australian equity fund managers.

This is an absolute must read article. Bob reports on the presentation by Donald Ratajczak, former chairperson of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, on the outlook for the US economy, particularly the potential for a "double-dip" recession. Other issues addressed by Ratajczak; Is the bubble burst like Japan's? What about energy prices? Are stocks overpriced? Is deflation on the horizon?