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G'day
So - 2014 is off to an
"interesting" start! Last year's bullish market mood took a sharp
downturn in January - and this first Fodder for 2014 focuses on what it
all means. Surprisingly, perma-Bear
Nouriel Roubini is rather optimistic about emerging markets (towards
the end of his piece, so hang on in).
GaveKal's Kaletsky presents an interesting thesis - another poor US
payroll figure will unleash panic in risk-assets, a positive one will
see the bull market resume. Dom McCormick argues January's sharp
reversal for shares shows how easy it is to get sucked into consensus
- and it IS, as
Tim Farrelly laments, citing a report showing that buy high, sell low
still seems to be the preferred strategy for many practitioners.
Finally, in all this talk of falling equitymarkets,
Angela Ashton presents a paper |
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showing
a higher exposure to equities (approx 75%) is ideal for retirement
portfolios - a difficult message to deliver to investors right now!
Markets Summit (18 Feb 2014) couldn't be better timed! Check out the
program.
We've got a stellar cast of speakers and topics. Be quick though, we're
at 92% capacity.
All the best for some great weekend learning! - Graham
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Perspectives -
latest |
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Blowing in the wind
In December, a report on asset allocation trends and intentions of
financial planners crossed my desk. The voice in my head sang the Dylan
classic "How many times..."
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Opinion
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The trouble with emerging markets
The financial turmoil in emerging-market economies has returned with a
vengeance. But the threat of a full-fledged crisis remains low, even in
the Fragile Five.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion
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What's causing the panic?
The bullish mood suddenly changed in early January. Here's a structure
for thinking about recent market events that may be helpful in assessing
new evidence as it comes.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal | Opinion
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The role of sentiment and contrarian
investing
As we
entered 2014, the consensus on the best and worst areas to invest could
be described very simply: momentum investing ruled, contrarian investing
was dead.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners | Opinion
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Determining withdrawal rates using historical data
William Bengen is a 'rock star' of financial planning. His paper
established the 4% rule - and showed a higher exposure to equities
(approx 75%) was ideal for retirement.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research
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Perspectives -
recently |
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An
extraordinary year
It's
been an extraordinary year. My biggest call for 2014 is that China's
stockmarket could be the best performing.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Opinion
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Looking for bubbles
There has been much talk about bubbles in recent months. But to work out whether an asset class is in a bubble,
you first need to identify
the talk you should ignore.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners | Opinion
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US v China superpower battle is heating up
The export of inflation by the US can do far more damage to China's
effort to become a self-sufficient superpower than almost anything else
the US could have thought of.
Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, Principalis Asset Management | Opinion
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Back to housing bubbles
Five years on from the GFC, we are witnessing in many countries a
slow-motion replay of that housing-market train wreck.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion
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Calendar of
live programs |
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Markets Summit 2014 - The Great Escape
What will markets be like in
the great QE run out?
Established in 2009, Markets
Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The one-day
program features 20+ local and international economists, asset
allocation strategists and market specialists. Strictly limited to 510
delegates, Markets Summit will help you understand the key drivers and
outlook for investment markets, and the implications for portfolio
construction.
18
FEBRUARY 2014 | SYDNEY | 9+ CPD | A$495+GST EARLY BIRD |
Register now
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date - follow us @PortfolioForum
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