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G'day
In this week's Forum Fodder,
we have
a fascinating take on the investment implications of Russia's incursion
into Ukraine, from Anatole Kaletsky (the "Kal" in renowned
independent research firm, GaveKal). Is it a Rothschild-style "buy at
the sound of gunfire" buying opportunity? Plus, we bring you the final
five sessions from the recent Markets Summit program - the last of the
deluge! These include PortfolioConstruction Forum faculty member
Tim Farrelly's contention that there will be no Great Escape without a
Great Unwind, while fellow faculty member, Nick Bullman, looks at
whether central banks can negotiate breaking Unconventional Monetary
Policy without crashing. MLC's Susan Gosling asks
will QE ruin retirement? Novaport's Alex Milton
makes the case for active management of Australian equities in a Great
Escape world, and
Invesco's Robert Walden makes the case for TAA across credit assets
in the QE runout. Of course, there's not a chance you've had time
yet to "attend" all 19 Markets Summit sessions - so keep at
it, it's worth the effort to get an excellent "baker's |
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dozen" of expert, high conviction insights to consider applying to portfolios.
Print out this Fodder email, and tick off the sessions as you "attend"
them.
All the best for the week ahead - Graham
P.S. We've submitted our CPD application for Markets Summit and expect
to be able to email CPD notification by 21 March to those who
attended the on-stage live
program.
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Perspectives -
latest |
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Realpolitik in Ukraine
In finance and geopolitics, experience must always prevail over hope,
and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian
incursion into Ukraine.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal | Opinion
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There will be no Great Escape without a Great Unwind
To achieve the Great Escape, central banks must first complete the Great
Unwind – the removal of ultra-easy monetary policies. So what is the
roadmap for the Great Unwind?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Presentation
& Podcast
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Can central bankers negotiate the B.U.M.P. without crashing?
Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy (B.U.M.P.) and it's impact on
global financial stability is the key risk for the foreseeable future.
Nick Bullman, CheckRisk | Presentation,
Paper
& Podcast
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Inflation risk - will QE ruin retirement?
Ultra-low interest rates and QE have offset the deflationary forces of
debt deleveraging. The challenge policy makers face is when to withdraw
the stimulus to avert inflation.
Dr Susan Gosling, MLC | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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Is index investing simply a case of indifference?
In a Great Escape world, ignoring the index and actively seeking growth
investments regardless of size or weightings is more important than
ever.
Alex Milton, Novaport Capital | Presentation & Podcast
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Deploying TAA across credit will be critical as QE unwinds
The ability to pick inflection points in markets as well as deploying
TAA across credit will be the key ingredient going forward.
Robert Waldner, Invesco | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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Perspectives -
recently |
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Markets Summit 2014 - key takeouts
In a new format for Markets Summit 2014, delegates took the role of CIO
for the day, as the 18-strong presenter faculty made the case for their
highest conviction insights.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| Opinion
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Over the wire or under it, the Great Escape
will be dangerous
In rapid-fire presentations, 18 experts from various parts of the world
debated the biggest issue facing the financial world.
Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News | Opinion
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Markets Summit 2014 Investment Advisory Board Meeting
Our Markets Summit faculty debated two critical portfolio construction
issues arising from Unconventional Monetary Policy.
Investment Advisory Board
| Panel
& Podcast
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Unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policy
Today's
long period of very easy money and very low yields has distorted the
financial system. This will cause unintended consequences in the near
future as QE ends.
Dr Woody Brock, SED | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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QE and navigating the Great Escape
Most of the world will see an improvement in economic growth this year.
Equities are by far the most attractive asset class - but they will be
much more volatile.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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Are the Fed and PBoC ahead of or behind the curve?
If the US and China prove to be prescient and 'ahead of the curve',
financial markets will flourish; if they dawdle, we'll see yet another
boom and bust cycle that ends in tears.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | Presentation
& Podcast
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The sweet spot of the global economy
There is no doubt that some countries are better placed than others in
The Great Escape. In fact, Australia and NZ have the chance to be rock
star economies of the 21st century.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | Presentation
& Podcast
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The end of Unconventional Monetary Policy
After a half decade of weakness, robust growth in the US and UK is
setting the stage for unconventional monetary policies to be unwound.
David Hale, David Hale Global
Economics | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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Does the end of QE mean the end of the yield play?
Short-term rates are likely to remain low for a prolonged period of
time. Investors will still need to source yield, they'll simply have to
be more creative to find it.
Russ Koesterich, BlackRock | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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Bonds are a cheap insurance policy
Think about bonds as an insurance policy for portfolios. With higher
yields available, very cheap insurance is even better able to pay for
hurdles facing portfolios.
Robert Mead, PIMCO | Presentation & Podcast
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From liquidity surfing to bull running
A rise in US Treasury yields is likely to have a profound impact. Bonds should remain a critical component of portfolios, but
a more active approach is necessary.
Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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The US recovery will surprise on the upside
The US is the critical market of the global economy - and there are
sign-posts that suggest it's ready to surprise on the upside,
with significant implications for portfolios.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group
| Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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Quantitative squeezing - differentiation in EM Investing
Emerging Markets were a focal point in 2013, repricing as US stimulus,
commodity prices and China's boom subsided. In future, EM performance
will depend on individual merit.
Kathryn Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management | Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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The wrong route to the right destination?
We must challenge common assumptions about the US and emerging markets
to ensure we are focusing on the best routes to the right destination.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
| Presentation,
Paper & Podcast
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The Aquarium Theory of Investing
Today's world is different from anything in the history of human
capitalism. The Aquarium Theory of Investing is one way to gain
perspective.
Brian Singer, William Blair & Co | Presentation & Podcast
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live programs |
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