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G'day
This week's Fodder features
three powerhouse economic commentators - Nouriel Roubini, Pippa Malmgren,
and Charles Gave (what a speaking panel that would be!).
Roubini proposes that six new economic, financial and geopolitical risks
are on the rise and investors may be deluding themselves that the
probability of these risks is low. Pippa explains why a new combination
on the landscape of the global economy -
devaluation and robotics - is a serious risk to emerging markets.
GaveKal's
Charles Gave debunks the myth that the US budget deficit is falling,
despite what you're reading almost everywhere. On the strategies front,
Angela reviews a
paper proposing an age banding approach to retirement income funding
(very different to the popular safe withdrawal rate approach). SSgA
offers
a white paper on the dynamic nature of correlation, offering
correlations matrices for markets before the GFC, during and since -
a very useful tool for anyone wanting to model how portfolios might
perform in different scenarios. And, on a positive note, we highlight
another must-see Markets Summit session featuring Oliver Hartwich (a
speaker at
the upcoming Symposium 20-21 May) arguing |
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why Australia and NZ have the chance to be rock star economies of the
21st century.
As always, all the best for a great weekend's learning and week ahead -
Graham
P.S.
Early bird registration is open for Symposium (20-21 May 2014).
Register now and save 10%
Early Bird. Plus, immediate after Symposium is
Strategi's Finology Conference. Register for both programs and receive a
further 10% discount on both.
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LATEST... |
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The changing face of global risk
Economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. A year or two
ago, six risks stood at center stage. These have now reduced. But six
others have been growing.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion
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Rise of the machines - how will the EMs keep pace?
In theory, recent currency devaluations should make EM countries more
competitive. But they're also facing a technological jump that they may
not be able to keep up with.
Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, Principalis Asset Management | Opinion
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The euthanasia of pensioners in Peoria
So the US budget deficit is contracting because government consumption
is falling? It is really just an accounting illusion. Financial
repression is still the order of the day.
Charles Gave, GaveKal | Opinion
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Age banding - a model for planning retirement income needs
In recent months, we've reviewed one school of research on funding
retirement income, the sustainable withdrawal rate approach. This paper
takes a very different approach.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research
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The changing face of correlation?
The challenge for investors over the past several years is that
diversification did not work as expected. The dynamic nature of
correlation must be factored into portfolio modeling.
Dan Farley & al, State Street Global Advisors | White
Paper
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The sweet spot of the global economy
There is no doubt that some countries are better placed than others in
The Great Escape. In fact, Australia and NZ have the chance to be rock
star economies of the 21st century
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | Resources
*
Rated "very good" by Markets Summit 2014 program
delegates
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RECENTLY...
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Safety in numbers?
When any investment and, in particular, an alternative investment begins
to be considered mainstream with attendant big inflows, the end is
generally nigh.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Opinion
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The global economy's tale risks
Just as it is hard to make a blockbuster film every time, no leader can
consistently shape the narratives that affect the economy. But they need
to try.
Robert J. Shiller, Yale University | Opinion
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The takeaways from the latest Fama-French research
Does Fama and French's latest work, A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model,
provide any information that can be of practical value to advisers or
investors? The answer is no.
Michael Edesess, Fair Advisors | Opinion
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The wrong route to the right destination?
We must question common assumptions about the US and emerging markets
to ensure we are focusing on the best routes to the right destination.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | Resources
* Second
highest rated session of the Markets Summit 2014 program
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Monitoring the success of target date funds
The dynamic nature of target date funds - encompassing multiple
objectives and changing asset allocations over time - raises challenges
for performance reporting.
Sean Henaghan, AMP Capital Investors | White
paper
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PLUS...
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date - follow us @PortfolioForum
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