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 Friday 21 March 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

New Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, gave her first press meeting yesterday - and spooked markets. So this week's Fodder kicks off with a memo on the topic received overnight from Dr Robert Gay (a speaker at the recent Markets Summit 2014). Having worked at the Fed for 8 years as senior economist (mostly under Volcker), Bob's got a unique perspective on the Fed's inner workings and we're fortunate to be able to share his insights into what yesterday's Fed release actually means. Economic 'rock star', Ken Rogoff looks at what he calls four "formidable challenges" to future generations enjoying a better quality of life. Angela Ashton looks at two new reports on the conditions under which active management can outperform. Michael Kitces asks how much clients really withdraw in retirement and what that means for firms with an ageing client base. We also highlight the presentation that won the Delegates' Pick Award for Best Markets Summit 2014 Presentation - Magellan's Hamish Douglass, arguing why the US recovery will surprise on the upside, and the very significant implications for portfolios. If you've not yet had a chance to dive into the Markets Summit Resources Kit, this is

a great session to get you started. Last but not least, State Street's Chris Probyn explains why 2014 is likely to be a year of genuine improvement in the global economy.
As always, all the best for a great weekend's learning and week ahead - Graham
P.S. Early bird registration is open for Symposium (20-21 May 2014). Register now and save 10%. Plus, Symposium is running back-to-back with Finology Conference and if you register for both, you'll receive a further 10% discount on both programs.

Perspectives - latest

Heading for the exit
The Fed's clear message from yesterday's FOMC meeting is that it will stay the course on exiting QE as gracefully and slowly as possible.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
Opinion

Malthus, Marx, and Modern Growth
Will each future generation continue to enjoy a better quality of life than its immediate predecessor? It's likely, but the risks seem higher than a few decades ago.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University
Opinion

Thoughts on investing - scale and skill in active management
It's the eternal debate - can active management outperform? Two recent reports - one from Warren Buffett, the other academic - offer some interesting insights.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

How much do clients withdraw in retirement, really?
As the logic goes, retired clients deplete their portfolios and pass away as the years go by, so a firm with aging clients is akin to a rapidly depreciating asset. Is this true?
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Opinion

Why the US recovery will surprise on the upside
There are sign-posts that clearly suggest the US is ready to surprise on the upside, with significant implications for portfolios.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group
Resources
* Awarded Delegates' Pick Award for Best Markets Summit 2014 Presentation

A year for genuine improvement
2014 is likely to be a year of genuine improvement in the global economy, and one where uncertainty is rather low.
Christopher Probyn, State Street Global Advisors
Opinion

Perspectives - recently

Russia's permanent interests
If you believe the US has the Crimean situation under control, plan for a bullish scenario for risk assets. Plan for the opposite, if you believe Putin will prevail.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal
Opinion

Global investing trend has much further to go
Australians are waking up to the fact that they have not had enough global (mainly equity) exposure. Why the case for more global exposure now?
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
Opinion

Safe withdrawal rates in retirement - an Australian perspective
A new research paper looks specifically at withdrawal rates in the Australian context, confirming the legislated minimums for account-based pensions are much too high.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

Using social proof to help clients make better decisions
If we're explaining a "norm" to clients that embeds a social proof, we should be using norms that show what is successful, not describing the commonality of failure!
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Opinion

Two reasons for US micro-cap stocks for the next 5-10 years
Increasing corporate activity in the US, and a more positive US macro-economic backdrop make US micro-cap stocks a good place to invest for the next 5 to 10 years.
Chris Cuesta, Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
Opinion

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