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 Friday 14 March 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

This week's Forum Fodder offers a diverse range of views around markets, strategies and investing, the three pillars of portfolio construction. Louis-Vincent Gave explains why Russia won't let go of Crimea ("reasoned paranoia") and the fairly black and white investment implications of Putin prevailing. It's proof positive of the impact of geopolitics on constructing portfolios. Dom McCormick makes the case for more global equities exposure, arguing that the factors supporting a home bias have either partly or fully reversed, or are in the process of doing so. Angela Ashton reviews a new research paper from academics Michael Drew and Adam Walk on safe withdrawal rates in the Australian context. This is the first paper specific to the local region and it's an absolute "must read" for every practitioner. Michael Kitces explains how to use social proof to help clients make better decisions. And, don't miss

the 2-minute video on why US micro-cap stocks may be a good place to invest.
All the best for a great weekend's learning, and for the week ahead - Graham
P.S. Early bird registration is open for Symposium (20-21 May 2014). Register now and save 10%. Plus, Symposium is running back-to-back with Finology Conference and if you register for both, you'll receive a further 10% discount on both programs.

Perspectives - latest

Russia's permanent interests
If you believe the US State Department has the Crimean situation under control, plan for a bullish scenario for risk assets. Plan for the opposite, if you believe Putin will prevail.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal
Opinion

Global investing trend has much further to go
Australians are waking up to the fact that they have not had enough global (mainly equity) exposure. Why the case for more global exposure now?
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
Opinion

Safe withdrawal rates in retirement - an Australian perspective
A new research paper looks specifically at withdrawal rates in the Australian context, confirming the legislated minimums for account-based pensions are much too high.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

Using social proof to help clients make better decisions
If we're explaining a "norm" to clients that embeds a social proof, we should be using norms that show what is successful, not describing the commonality of failure!
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Opinion

Two reasons for US micro-cap stocks for the next 5-10 years
Increasing corporate activity in the US, and a more positive US macro-economic backdrop make US micro-cap stocks a good place to invest for the next 5 to 10 years.
Chris Cuesta, Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
Opinion

Perspectives - recently

Realpolitik in Ukraine
In finance and geopolitics, experience must always prevail over hope, and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian incursion into Ukraine.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
2 commentsOpinion

Markets Summit Resources Kit - recently

There will be no Great Escape without a Great Unwind
To achieve the Great Escape, central banks must first complete the Great Unwind – the removal of ultra-easy monetary policies. So what is the roadmap for the Great Unwind?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
Presentation & Podcast

Can central bankers negotiate the B.U.M.P. without crashing?
Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy (B.U.M.P.) and it's impact on global financial stability is the key risk for the foreseeable future.
Nick Bullman, CheckRisk
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Inflation risk - will QE ruin retirement?
Ultra-low interest rates and QE have offset the deflationary forces of debt deleveraging. The challenge policy makers face is when to withdraw the stimulus to avert inflation.
Dr Susan Gosling, MLC
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Is index investing simply a case of indifference?
In a Great Escape world, ignoring the index and actively seeking growth investments regardless of size or weightings is more important than ever.
Alex Milton, Novaport Capital
Presentation & Podcast

Deploying TAA across credit will be critical as QE unwinds
The ability to pick inflection points in markets as well as deploying TAA across credit will be the key ingredient going forward.
Robert Waldner, Invesco
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

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