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 Friday 07 March 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

In this week's Forum Fodder, we have a fascinating take on the investment implications of Russia's incursion into Ukraine, from Anatole Kaletsky (the "Kal" in renowned independent research firm, GaveKal). Is it a Rothschild-style "buy at the sound of gunfire" buying opportunity? Plus, we bring you the final five sessions from the recent Markets Summit program - the last of the deluge! These include PortfolioConstruction Forum faculty member Tim Farrelly's contention that there will be no Great Escape without a Great Unwind, while fellow faculty member, Nick Bullman, looks at whether central banks can negotiate breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy without crashing. MLC's Susan Gosling asks will QE ruin retirement?  Novaport's Alex Milton makes the case for active management of Australian equities in a Great Escape world, and Invesco's Robert Walden makes the case for TAA across credit assets in the QE runout.  Of course, there's not a chance you've had time yet to "attend"

all 19 Markets Summit sessions - so keep at it, it's worth the effort to get an excellent "baker's dozen" of expert, high conviction insights to consider applying to portfolios.
All the best for the week ahead - Graham
P.S. Print out this Fodder email, and tick off the sessions as you "attend" them!

Perspectives - latest

Realpolitik in Ukraine
In finance and geopolitics, experience must always prevail over hope, and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian incursion into Ukraine.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
Opinion

There will be no Great Escape without a Great Unwind
To achieve the Great Escape, central banks must first complete the Great Unwind – the removal of ultra-easy monetary policies. So what is the roadmap for the Great Unwind?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
Presentation & Podcast

Can central bankers negotiate the B.U.M.P. without crashing?
Breaking Unconventional Monetary Policy (B.U.M.P.) and it's impact on global financial stability is the key risk for the foreseeable future.
Nick Bullman, CheckRisk
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Inflation risk - will QE ruin retirement?
Ultra-low interest rates and QE have offset the deflationary forces of debt deleveraging. The challenge policy makers face is when to withdraw the stimulus to avert inflation.
Dr Susan Gosling, MLC
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Is index investing simply a case of indifference?
In a Great Escape world, ignoring the index and actively seeking growth investments regardless of size or weightings is more important than ever.
Alex Milton, Novaport Capital
Presentation & Podcast

Deploying TAA across credit will be critical as QE unwinds
The ability to pick inflection points in markets as well as deploying TAA across credit will be the key ingredient going forward.
Robert Waldner, Invesco
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Perspectives - recently

Markets Summit 2014 - key takeouts
In a new format for Markets Summit 2014, delegates took the role of CIO for the day, as the 18-strong presenter faculty made the case for their highest conviction insights.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Opinion

Over the wire or under it, the Great Escape will be dangerous
In rapid-fire presentations, 18 experts from various parts of the world debated the biggest issue facing the financial world.
Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News
Opinion

Markets Summit 2014 Investment Advisory Board Meeting
Our Markets Summit faculty debated two critical portfolio construction issues arising from Unconventional Monetary Policy.
Investment Advisory Board
Panel & Podcast

Unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policy
Today's long period of very easy money and very low yields has distorted the financial system. This will cause unintended consequences in the near future as QE ends.
Dr Woody Brock, SED
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

QE and navigating the Great Escape
Most of the world will see an improvement in economic growth this year. Equities are by far the most attractive asset class - but they will be much more volatile.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Are the Fed and PBoC ahead of or behind the curve?
If the US and China prove to be prescient and 'ahead of the curve', financial markets will flourish; if they dawdle, we'll see yet another boom and bust cycle that ends in tears.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
Presentation & Podcast

The sweet spot of the global economy
There is no doubt that some countries are better placed than others in The Great Escape. In fact, Australia and NZ have the chance to be rock star economies of the 21st century.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
Presentation & Podcast

The end of Unconventional Monetary Policy
After a half decade of weakness, robust growth in the US and UK is setting the stage for unconventional monetary policies to be unwound.
David Hale, David Hale Global Economics
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Does the end of QE mean the end of the yield play?
Short-term rates are likely to remain low for a prolonged period of time. Investors will still need to source yield, they'll simply have to be more creative to find it.
Russ Koesterich, BlackRock
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Bonds are a cheap insurance policy
Think about bonds as an insurance policy for portfolios. With higher yields available, very cheap insurance is even better able to pay for hurdles facing portfolios.
Robert Mead, PIMCO
Presentation & Podcast

From liquidity surfing to bull running
A rise in US Treasury yields is likely to have a profound impact. Bonds should remain a critical component of portfolios, but a more active approach is necessary.
Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

The US recovery will surprise on the upside
The US is the critical market of the global economy - and there are sign-posts that suggest it's ready to surprise on the upside, with significant implications for portfolios.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

Quantitative squeezing - differentiation in EM Investing
Emerging Markets were a focal point in 2013, repricing as US stimulus, commodity prices and China's boom subsided. In future, EM performance will depend on individual merit.
Kathryn Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

The wrong route to the right destination?
We must challenge common assumptions about the US and emerging markets to ensure we are focusing on the best routes to the right destination.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
Presentation, Paper & Podcast

The Aquarium Theory of Investing
Today's world is different from anything in the history of human capitalism. The Aquarium Theory of Investing is one way to gain perspective.
Brian Singer, William Blair & CoPresentation & Podcast

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