PortfolioConstruction Forum

 Friday 07 February 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

So - 2014 is off to an "interesting" start! Last year's bullish market mood took a sharp downturn in January - and this first Fodder for 2014 focuses on what it all means. Surprisingly, perma-Bear Nouriel Roubini is rather optimistic about emerging markets (towards the end of his piece, so hang on in). GaveKal's Kaletsky presents an interesting thesis - another poor US payroll figure will unleash panic in risk-assets, a positive one will see the bull market resume. Dom McCormick argues January's sharp reversal for shares shows how easy it is to get sucked into consensus - and it IS, as Tim Farrelly laments, citing a report showing that buy high, sell low still seems to be the preferred strategy for

 many practitioners. Finally, in all this talk of falling equitymarkets, Angela Ashton presents a paper showing a higher exposure to equities (approx 75%) is ideal for retirement portfolios - a difficult message to deliver to investors right now!
All the best for some great weekend learning! - Graham

Perspectives - latest

Blowing in the wind
In December, a report on asset allocation trends and intentions of financial planners crossed my desk. The voice in my head sang the Dylan classic "How many times..."
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Opinion

The trouble with emerging markets
The financial turmoil in emerging-market economies has returned with a vengeance. But the threat of a full-fledged crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion

What's causing the panic?
The bullish mood suddenly changed in early January. Here's a structure for thinking about recent market events that may be helpful in assessing new evidence as it comes.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal | Opinion

The role of sentiment and contrarian investing
As we entered 2014, the consensus on the best and worst areas to invest could be described very simply: momentum investing ruled, contrarian investing was dead.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners | Opinion

Determining withdrawal rates using historical data
William Bengen is a 'rock star' of financial planning. His paper established the 4% rule - and showed a higher exposure to equities (approx 75%) was ideal for retirement.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research

Perspectives - recently

An extraordinary year
It's been an extraordinary year. My biggest call for 2014 is that China's stockmarket could be the best performing.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Opinion

Looking for bubbles
There has been much talk about bubbles in recent months. But to work out whether an asset class is in a bubble, you first need to identify the talk you should ignore.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners | Opinion

US v China superpower battle is heating up
The export of inflation by the US can do far more damage to China's effort to become a self-sufficient superpower than almost anything else the US could have thought of.
Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, Principalis Asset Management | Opinion

Back to housing bubbles
Five years on from the GFC, we are witnessing in many countries a slow-motion replay of that housing-market train wreck.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion

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