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G'day
Disruption is an unplanned
theme in this week's Forum Fodder. Mohamed El-Erian forewarns that
technology, the Internet and social media are starting to do what they
did to media -
democratise the flow of capital. Dominic McCormick
does his utmost to disrupt confidence in US equities and bias against
Chinese equities. His argument is (as usual) contrarian and
therefore may make for uncomfortable reading - but to paraphrase
Buffett, successful investing is rarely comfortable. Angela introduces a
paper that looks at
optimal spending rates in retirement, based on people's attitudes
towards their life expectancy, not asset class returns (definitely a
more client-centric focus). And Standard Life Investments' Guy Stern
warns that
no return forecast is going to be right, so we need to |
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structure portfolios
accordingly.
Lastly, we profile
one of my favourite sessions from Markets Summit 2014 - Brian
Singer's entertaining and very thought provoking "Aquarium Theory of
Investing".
All the best for a great weekend's learning -
Graham
P.S. Mark your diary for Conference 2014 - 19-21 August
- Risk & Return (& Relating)
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LATEST...
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The democratic disruption of finance
Having redefined media, technology, the Internet and social media
will soon likely start transforming how capital is mobilised and
allocated.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | Opinion
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A tale of two sharemarkets
Often, the true dangers reside where investors are most comfortable
going and the best opportunities are where investors fear to tread.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management | Opinion
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Longevity risk aversion and safe withdrawal rates
There are a huge variety of different ways to think about retirement
income strategy. This paper introduces "longevity risk
aversion" and its impact on safe withdrawal rates.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research
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The investor's challenge
Whatever return forecasts you make will be wrong - so you better have a
portfolio that has the opportunity to make money in a very broad
spectrum of investment outcomes.
Guy Stern, Standard Life Investments | Opinion
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The Aquarium Theory of Investing
Normal is not our experience - today's world is different from
anything in the history of human capitalism. The Aquarium Theory of
Investing is one way to gain perspective.
Brian Singer, William Blair & Co | Resources
* Rated "very good" by
Markets Summit 2014 delegates
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Other good reads
Capital in the Twenty First Century
- The Economist does us all a favour and summarises the surprise
700-page best seller (currently No 2 on the Amazon best seller list),
Thomas Piketty's new economic treatise. It explores global inequality
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and whether current
trends will continue. Some say it will shape future economic policy.
Or catch this interview with Piketty for more insight.
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RECENTLY...
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Global ground zero in Asia
Long-standing historical grievances among China, Japan, Korea,
India, and others remain open wounds. Why are tensions among Asia's
great powers becoming more serious?
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion
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It's time to start looking at alternative assets
It is time to start looking at alternative assets. Not because there is
any pressing need to invest today, but because thorough analysis takes
time and mistakes can be expensive.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | White
Paper
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Fureyous: Absolute return investing... a nice goal
It is fine to have positive returns year-in, year-out as an objective or
goal. But, absolute returns should never be presented as an expectation,
as disappointment is inevitable.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 1
comment | Opinion
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Global equity investing: Insights into a better portfolio
Towers Watson's compendium of insights into global equity investing
contains useful insights about issues many portfolio construction
practitioners face every day.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research
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Why valuation really matters
Valuation is not just an important driver of investment returns but also
of investment volatility.
Stephen Anness, Invesco Perpetual
| Opinion
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Markets Summit 2014 Investment Advisory Board Meeting
Our Markets Summit faculty debated two critical issues arising from Unconventional Monetary Policy; for
the coming two to three years, to substantially overweight DM vs EM
Equities in portfolios and substantially overweight Short vs Long Duration
Bonds.
Markets Summit 2014
Investment Advisory Board | Resources
* Rated "very good" by
delegates, this was the "must see" session of the program!
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Other good reads
Pseudo-mathematics and financial charlatanism
- highlights the perils of backtesting. Fund managers commonly use
backtesting in the marketing of new strategies. This study shows that
many unwittingly engage in "overfitting", leading them to overstate the
promise of their offerings.
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PLUS...
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Markets Summit
2014 - The Great Escape - Resources Kit online
The most successful
Markets
Summit program yet (97% of delegates rating it good (42%) or excellent
(55%)), the 2014 program featured a stellar line-up of international and
local geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts,
and investment strategists. Each offered a high conviction idea
regarding the impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the
medium-term outlook for the global economy, key market or asset class -
and, of course, the implications for portfolios.
Access a baker's dozen of expert, high conviction insights to consider
applying when building portfolios.
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Mark Your
Diary: PortfolioConstruction
Forum Conference (19-21 Aug)
Since 2002, PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference has gained a
reputation as THE investment conference of the year. Presented in Sydney
each August, it is our flagship program - a jam-packed, marathon
three-day, 25-hour program featuring 40 intensive, objective,
interactive sessions and more than 50 carefully selected local and
international portfolio construction experts. It is a companion program
to the annual Markets Summit held in Sydney each February.
Preview the theme "Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (&
Relating)"
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Keep up to
date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until
our weekly Forum Fodder email to know what's new with PortfolioConstruction Forum.
Just follow us on Twitter to hear as soon
as we release new articles on
PortfolioConstruction.com.au and
registration opens for our live programs.
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