|
G'day
Fodder's back after a week off while we ran our annual Symposium program.
This week's Fodder kicks off with the top rated session - Jack Gray
explaining
how to tell whether a manager has or will add value. We'll bring you
more from Symposium over coming weeks. Meanwhile, Michael Kitces reviews
the latest research on retirement spending, finding it follows a smile
pattern. The implication is that traditional
safe withdrawal rate approaches may be overestimating funds needed to
retirement by up to 20%! Good news for baby boomers whose
assets were hit by the GFC. Another of
our most popular contributors, Louis Gave of GaveKal, warns that the market's
expectations for ECB action are at sky-high levels and "when everyone is
sunbathing on the same side of the boat, an unforeseen wave can easily
capsize the vessel" -
so approaching next week's ECB meeting with some protection makes sense.
Bob Huebscher, of US-based Advisor Perspectives, attended the recent
Mauldin Conference, and has summarised the keynote address from Kyle
Bass (famous for predicting the US sub-prime crisis). |
|
 |
As you'll read,
Bass is very bearish on Japan (and not much more positive on China).
Lastly, we profile
Russ Koesterich's very popular Markets Summit session on
whether QE
means the end of the yield play.
All the best for a great weekend's learning -
Graham
P.S. Mark your diary for Conference 2014 - 19-21 August
- Risk & Return (& Relating)
|
|
LATEST...
|
|
 |
How to judge the likelihood a manager will or has added value
There's some evidence that some managers can add (relatively)
consistent value net of costs. Can we (or anyone) identify them?
Prof Jack Gray, UTS | Resources
|
|
 |
Changes in retirement and the retirement spending smile
Most research assumes retirees maintain a consistent standard of living.
A new study disproves this, implying we may be overestimating funds
needed to retire by up to 20%.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | Opinion
|
|
 |
Drumroll to the ECB meeting
Markets are pricing in expectations that the ECB will have to be very
aggressive next week to turn back the tide of European
deceleration. It's reminiscent of October 1987.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | Opinion
|
|
 |
Kyle Bass: The looming crises in Asia
Nobody is more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. He recently
reiterated his doubts on Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis, and
cast doubt on China's economy.
Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | Opinion
|
|
 |
Does the end of QE mean the end of the yield play?
Short-term rates are likely to remain low for a prolonged period of
time. Investors will still need to source yield, they'll simply have to
be more creative to find it.
Russ Koesterich, BlackRock | Resources
* Rated "very
good " by
Markets Summit 2014 delegates.
|
|
RECENTLY...
|
|
 |
The democratic disruption of finance
Having redefined media, technology, the Internet and social media
will soon likely start transforming how capital is mobilised and
allocated.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | Opinion
|
|
 |
A tale of two sharemarkets
Often, the true dangers reside where investors are most comfortable
going and the best opportunities are where investors fear to tread.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management | Opinion
|
|
 |
Longevity risk aversion and safe withdrawal rates
There are a huge variety of different ways to think about retirement
income strategy. This paper introduces "longevity risk
aversion" and its impact on safe withdrawal rates.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research
|
|
 |
The investor's challenge
Whatever return forecasts you make will be wrong - so you better have a
portfolio that has the opportunity to make money in a very broad
spectrum of investment outcomes.
Guy Stern, Standard Life Investments | Opinion
|
|
 |
The Aquarium Theory of Investing
Normal is not our experience - today's world is different from
anything in the history of human capitalism. The Aquarium Theory of
Investing is one way to gain perspective.
Brian Singer, William Blair & Co | Resources
* Rated "very good" by
Markets Summit 2014 delegates
|
|
 |
Other good reads
Capital in the Twenty First Century
- The Economist does us all a favour and summarises the surprise
700-page best seller (currently No 2 on the Amazon best seller list),
Thomas Piketty's new economic treatise. It explores global inequality
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and whether current
trends will continue. Some say it will shape future economic policy.
Or catch this interview with Piketty for more insight.
|
|
PLUS...
|
|
 |
Markets Summit
2014 - The Great Escape - Resources Kit online
The most successful
Markets
Summit program yet (97% of delegates rating it good (42%) or excellent
(55%)), the 2014 program featured a stellar line-up of international and
local geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts,
and investment strategists. Each offered a high conviction idea
regarding the impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the
medium-term outlook for the global economy, key market or asset class -
and, of course, the implications for portfolios.
Access a baker's dozen of expert, high conviction insights to consider
applying when building portfolios.
|
|
 |
Mark Your
Diary: PortfolioConstruction
Forum Conference (19-21 Aug)
Since 2002, PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference has gained a
reputation as THE investment conference of the year. Presented in Sydney
each August, it is our flagship program - a jam-packed, marathon
three-day, 25-hour program featuring 40 intensive, objective,
interactive sessions and more than 50 carefully selected local and
international portfolio construction experts. It is a companion program
to the annual Markets Summit held in Sydney each February.
Preview the theme "Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (&
Relating)"
|
|
 |
Keep up to
date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until
our weekly Forum Fodder email to know what's new with PortfolioConstruction Forum.
Just follow us on Twitter to hear as soon
as we release new articles on
PortfolioConstruction.com.au and
registration opens for our live programs.
|
