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PortfolioConstruction Forum

 

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 Friday 06 June 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

In this week's Fodder, Nouriel Roubini mounts a powerful argument that the current backlash against trade and globalisation is ideal ideal terrain for economic and political nationalism to take root and flourish. The world has been here before, he warns, and we should know from experience what could come next. Charles Gave's piece (written before today's ECB meeting) warns that providing more liquidity will solve nothing - which is just what the ECB has now done. For a more optimistic view of the world, check out Jonathan Pain's presentation at our recent Symposium program. Michael Furey presents some preliminary findings from his study on what frequency of portfolio rebalancing produces the best results. Finally, Angela Ashton reviews a recent Reserve Bank paper on home price

beliefs and how accurate Australians are at estimating the value of their homes (on average, we're quite good at it, apparently). And, interestingly, there's a link between that and the level of risky assets in our portfolios!
All the best for a great weekend's learning - Graham
P.S. Mark your diary for Conference 2014 - 19-21 August -
Risk & Return (& Relating)

LATEST...

The Great Backlash
Today's backlash against trade and globalisation should be viewed in the context of what, as we know from experience, could come next.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
Opinion

Tomorrow is not a game changer
Tomorrow we expect to see the latest Band-Aid solution being applied to the eurozone. Forgive me if I don't roll out the barrel. As I see it, there are four key problems.
Charles Gave, GaveKal
Opinion

What a wonderful world - around the world in 60 minutes
Recorded at the recent Symposium 2014, Jonathan discusses the prospects of four key economies - the US, Europe, Japan and China - and the implications for portfolios.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report
Resources

Fureyous: How often should we rebalance portfolios?
Across the industry, portfolio rebalancing is the norm - with little agreement on the optimal frequency. So I experimented to find out which frequency is best.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
Opinion

Home price beliefs in Australia
Are we any good at estimating the values of our homes? Surprisingly, on average we are, according to a RBA study. It also found a link to weightings of risky assets in portfolios.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

Other good reads
Unstoppable $100 trillion bond market renders models useless - Bond-market professionals including the US Federal Reserve are reassessing whether they're using the right tools to determine whether bonds are cheap or expensive.

RECENTLY...

How to judge the likelihood a manager will or has added value
There's some evidence that some managers can add (relatively) consistent value net of costs. Can we (or anyone) identify them?
Prof Jack Gray, UTS
Resources

Changes in retirement and the retirement spending smile
Most research assumes retirees maintain a consistent standard of living. A new study disproves this, implying we may be overestimating funds needed to retire by up to 20%.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Opinion

Drumroll to the ECB meeting
Markets are pricing in expectations that the ECB will have to be very aggressive next week to turn back the tide of European deceleration. It's reminiscent of October 1987.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal
Opinion

Kyle Bass: The looming crises in Asia
Nobody is more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. He recently reiterated his doubts on Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis, and cast doubt on China's economy.
Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives
Opinion

Does the end of QE mean the end of the yield play?
Short-term rates are likely to remain low for a prolonged period of time. Investors will still need to source yield, they'll simply have to be more creative to find it.
Russ Koesterich, BlackRock
Resources
* Rated "very good " by Markets Summit 2014 delegates.

PLUS...

Markets Summit 2014 - The Great Escape - Resources Kit online
The most successful
Markets Summit program yet (97% of delegates rating it good (42%) or excellent (55%)), the 2014 program featured a stellar line-up of international and local geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists. Each offered a high conviction idea regarding the impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the medium-term outlook for the global economy, key market or asset class - and, of course, the implications for portfolios. Access a baker's dozen of expert, high conviction insights to consider applying when building portfolios.

Mark Your Diary: PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference (19-21 Aug)
Since 2002, PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference has gained a reputation as THE investment conference of the year. Presented in Sydney each August, it is our flagship program - a jam-packed, marathon three-day, 25-hour program featuring 40 intensive, objective, interactive sessions and more than 50 carefully selected local and international portfolio construction experts. It is a companion program to the annual Markets Summit held in Sydney each February.
Preview the theme "Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (& Relating)"

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