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G'day
In this week's Fodder,
Nouriel
Roubini mounts a powerful argument that the current backlash against
trade and globalisation is ideal ideal terrain for economic and
political nationalism to take root and flourish. The world has been here
before, he warns, and we should know from experience what could come
next.
Charles Gave's piece
(written before today's ECB meeting) warns that providing more
liquidity will solve nothing - which is just what the ECB has now done.
For a more optimistic view of the world,
check out Jonathan Pain's presentation
at our recent Symposium program. Michael Furey presents some preliminary findings from
his study on
what frequency of portfolio rebalancing produces the best results.
Finally, Angela Ashton reviews a recent Reserve Bank paper on home price |
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beliefs and how
accurate Australians are at estimating the value of their homes (on
average, we're quite good
at it, apparently). And, interestingly, there's a link between that and
the level of risky assets in our portfolios!
All the best for a great weekend's learning -
Graham
P.S. Mark your diary for Conference 2014 - 19-21 August -
Risk & Return (& Relating)
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LATEST...
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The Great Backlash
Today's backlash against trade and globalisation should be viewed in
the context of what, as we know from experience, could come next.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion
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Tomorrow is not a game changer
Tomorrow we expect to see the latest Band-Aid solution being applied to
the eurozone. Forgive me if I don't roll out the barrel. As I see it,
there are four key problems.
Charles Gave, GaveKal | Opinion
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What a
wonderful world - around the world in 60 minutes
Recorded at the recent Symposium 2014, Jonathan discusses the prospects
of four key economies - the US, Europe, Japan and China - and the
implications for portfolios.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Resources
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Fureyous: How often should we rebalance
portfolios?
Across the industry, portfolio rebalancing is the norm - with little
agreement on the optimal frequency. So I experimented to find out which
frequency is best.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | Opinion
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Home price beliefs in Australia
Are we any good at estimating the values of our homes? Surprisingly, on
average we are, according to a RBA study. It also found a link to
weightings of risky assets in portfolios.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Research
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Other good reads
Unstoppable $100 trillion bond market renders models useless
- Bond-market professionals including the US Federal Reserve are
reassessing whether they're using the right tools to determine whether
bonds are cheap or expensive.
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RECENTLY...
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How to judge the likelihood a manager will or has added value
There's some evidence that some managers can add (relatively)
consistent value net of costs. Can we (or anyone) identify them?
Prof Jack Gray, UTS | Resources
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Changes in retirement and the retirement spending smile
Most research assumes retirees maintain a consistent standard of living.
A new study disproves this, implying we may be overestimating funds
needed to retire by up to 20%.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | Opinion
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Drumroll to the ECB meeting
Markets are pricing in expectations that the ECB will have to be very
aggressive next week to turn back the tide of European
deceleration. It's reminiscent of October 1987.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | Opinion
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Kyle Bass: The looming crises in Asia
Nobody is more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. He recently
reiterated his doubts on Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis, and
cast doubt on China's economy.
Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | Opinion
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Does the end of QE mean the end of the yield play?
Short-term rates are likely to remain low for a prolonged period of
time. Investors will still need to source yield, they'll simply have to
be more creative to find it.
Russ Koesterich, BlackRock | Resources
* Rated "very
good " by
Markets Summit 2014 delegates.
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PLUS...
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Markets Summit
2014 - The Great Escape - Resources Kit online
The most successful
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Summit program yet (97% of delegates rating it good (42%) or excellent
(55%)), the 2014 program featured a stellar line-up of international and
local geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts,
and investment strategists. Each offered a high conviction idea
regarding the impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the
medium-term outlook for the global economy, key market or asset class -
and, of course, the implications for portfolios.
Access a baker's dozen of expert, high conviction insights to consider
applying when building portfolios.
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Mark Your
Diary: PortfolioConstruction
Forum Conference (19-21 Aug)
Since 2002, PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference has gained a
reputation as THE investment conference of the year. Presented in Sydney
each August, it is our flagship program - a jam-packed, marathon
three-day, 25-hour program featuring 40 intensive, objective,
interactive sessions and more than 50 carefully selected local and
international portfolio construction experts. It is a companion program
to the annual Markets Summit held in Sydney each February.
Preview the theme "Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (&
Relating)"
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Keep up to
date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until
our weekly Forum Fodder email to know what's new with PortfolioConstruction Forum.
Just follow us on Twitter to hear as soon
as we release new articles on
PortfolioConstruction.com.au and
registration opens for our live programs.
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