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G'day
This week's Fodder features the second of a four part series by
GaveKal's Anatole Kaletsky. He argues that
the "obsession" with US data is on the wane, and sharemarkets will
increasingly decouple from the highs and lows of the US economy.
It's a theme that Dominic McCormick also picks up on, looking at
the implications and opportunities for portfolios as the US ebbs as the
world's pre-eminent geopolitical, economic and financial influence.
While getting there by different paths, Anatole and Dom both conclude
that the performance of individual equity markets will become a lot more
diverse - which is great news for portfolio diversification, of course.
Geopolitics will become a lot more diverse and important to portfolios
as well - and
Nouriel Roubini is right on point, looking at the Kremlin's long-term
objectives and what that means for markets in the long term. Shorter
term, BlackRock Investment Institute's mid-year update offers
insights into what life will look like after zero (rates). And
Michael Kitces,
who will be with us for Conference again in just 10 days, looks at
the
efficacy of the Shiller CAPE as a market valuation tool, concluding
that
while terrible as a help for short-term decisions, it's very relevant
for practical investment decisions where the focal point is 8 to 10
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for instance, figuring out
safe withdrawal rates for clients, whether to purchase an annuity or
take a pension lump sum, or an optimal asset allocation glide path.
All the best for some great
weekend learning - Graham
P.S.
Only 10
days until Conference where the focus will be on how to reconnect risk
and return in portfolios (and how best to relate it all to investors).
Don't miss out!
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LATEST...
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Russia's Eurasian vision
The escalating conflict in
Ukraine has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are
the Kremlin's long-term objectives?
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
| Opinion
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Opportunities and challenges in a less US-centric world
We've come to accept a world where the US drives what happens in the
global economy and markets. But that's changing - with significant
implications for portfolios.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
| Opinion
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The global obsession with US data
Since 2010, there has been an almost perfect correlation between the
strength of the US economy and stock markets outside the US. But
this is set to diminish.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
| Opinion
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Shiller CAPE - terrible but valuable
After two decades of elevated earnings and P/Es (and two bear
markets but also three astonishing bull markets) many are
questioning whether Shiller CAPE is that predictive.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
| Opinion
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Life after zero
Risk assets are grinding higher and volatility is extraordinarily low -
and monetary stimulus is still plentiful. What does life after zero
(rates) look like?
BlackRock Investment Institute
| Opinion
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RECENTLY...
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The 5% solution
Going forward, instead of 5% real, traditional stocks and bonds will
offer about 2.5%. But there are many things you can do to bridge the
gap.
Cliff Asness, AQR Capital Management
| Opinion
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The case for a structural equity bull market
Are equities at the end of a five-year cyclical bounce or are they at
the start of a 15-year structural breakout? History suggests two
directly contradictory answers.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
| Opinion
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Booming until it hurts?
Those who warn of grave dangers if speculative price increases are
allowed to continue unimpeded are right to do so, even if they
cannot prove there is cause for concern.
Robert J. Shiller, Yale University
| Opinion
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Summer essays
Investing is serious. It can and often is intellectually compelling.
But it should not be driven by excitement, as it is for many
individuals, and when treated that way will almost always end badly.
Jeremy Grantham, GMO
| Opinion
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Market cap-weighted bond indices - always tough to beat
It is not surprising that bond managers have significant difficulty
in outperforming a market cap-weighted benchmark.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
| Opinion
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PLUS...
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10 days to go - PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference (19-21 Aug)
Since 2002, PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference has gained a
reputation as THE investment conference of the year. Presented in Sydney
each August, it is our flagship program - a jam-packed, marathon
three-day, 25-hour program featuring 40 intensive, objective,
interactive sessions and more than 50 carefully selected local and
international portfolio construction experts. It is a companion program
to the annual Markets Summit held in Sydney each February.
Register now
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Keep up to date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until
our weekly Forum Fodder email to know what's new with
PortfolioConstruction Forum.
Just follow us on Twitter to hear as soon as we release new articles
on
PortfolioConstruction.com.au and registration opens for our live
programs.
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