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 Friday 08 August 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

This week's Fodder features the second of a four part series by GaveKal's Anatole Kaletsky. He argues that the "obsession" with US data is on the wane, and sharemarkets will increasingly decouple from the highs and lows of the US economy. It's a theme that Dominic McCormick also picks up on, looking at the implications and opportunities for portfolios as the US ebbs as the world's pre-eminent geopolitical, economic and financial influence. While getting there by different paths, Anatole and Dom both conclude that the performance of individual equity markets will become a lot more diverse - which is great news for portfolio diversification, of course. Geopolitics will become a lot more diverse and important to portfolios as well - and Nouriel Roubini is right on point, looking at the Kremlin's long-term objectives and what that means for markets in the long term. Shorter term, BlackRock Investment Institute's mid-year update offers insights into what life will look like after zero (rates). And Michael Kitces looks at the efficacy of the Shiller CAPE as a market valuation tool, concluding that while terrible as a help for short-term decisions, it's very relevant for practical investment decisions

where the focal point is 8 to 10 years, for instance, figuring out safe withdrawal rates for clients, whether to purchase an annuity or take a pension lump sum, or optimal asset allocation glide paths.
All the best for some great weekend learning - Graham

LATEST...

Russia's Eurasian vision
The escalating conflict in Ukraine has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin's long-term objectives?
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
Opinion

Opportunities and challenges in a less US-centric world
We've come to accept a world where the US drives what happens in the global economy and markets. But that's changing - with significant implications for portfolios.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
Opinion

The global obsession with US data
Since 2010, there has been an almost perfect correlation between the strength of the US economy and stock markets outside the US. But this is set to diminish.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
Opinion

Shiller CAPE - terrible but valuable
After two decades of elevated earnings and P/Es (and two bear markets but also three astonishing bull markets) many are questioning whether Shiller CAPE is that predictive.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Opinion

Life after zero
Risk assets are grinding higher and volatility is extraordinarily low - and monetary stimulus is still plentiful. What does life after zero (rates) look like?
BlackRock Investment Institute
Opinion

RECENTLY...

The 5% solution
Going forward, instead of 5% real, traditional stocks and bonds will offer about 2.5%. But there are many things you can do to bridge the gap.
Cliff Asness, AQR Capital Management
Opinion

The case for a structural equity bull market
Are equities at the end of a five-year cyclical bounce or are they at the start of a 15-year structural breakout? History suggests two directly contradictory answers.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
Opinion

Booming until it hurts?
Those who warn of grave dangers if speculative price increases are allowed to continue unimpeded are right to do so, even if they cannot prove there is cause for concern.
Robert J. Shiller, Yale University
Opinion

Summer essays
Investing is serious. It can and often is intellectually compelling. But it should not be driven by excitement, as it is for many individuals, and when treated that way will almost always end badly.
Jeremy Grantham, GMO
Opinion

Market cap-weighted bond indices - always tough to beat
It is not surprising that bond managers have significant difficulty in outperforming a market cap-weighted benchmark.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
Opinion

Clients don't want an adviser - they want a planner
New research found 78% of consumers care about being comfortable in the future - that alone tells us where the future is for advisers.
Tony Vidler, Strictly Business
Opinion

PLUS...

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